Jarrett Allen: Nice Head of Hair

[Wham with the Right Hand]

So do the Cavs wait for Allen to become a RFA? That could result in them having to decided between paying him more than they think he's worth (if another team comes up with a big offer) or letting him go when they don't want to.

Or do they try to extend him before Aug. 2 to avoid that possibility? Or do they wait and see who they end up with after the smoke clears on the 29th. If it's Mobley I suppose that could impact what they do with Allen depending on whether they think Mobley will be better as a center or a power forward.

I assume they would want to see how the draft shakes out before making an offer (or not) to Allen. Hartenstein's player option deadline is July 25 and he'll become an RFA as well, so the draft might affect the Cavs decision on whether to match whatever offer he gets.

 

[2 For The Brew]

I look at it differently. There’s been a lot of discussion (and criticism) regarding “roster construction“ but to this point that’s been a lower priority than drafting BPA. For me “roster construction“ is now VERY critical - but not so much roster construction in 2021-22 as 2023-24. The moves we make now will be long term commitments that we’ll have to live with. The last significant move was Kevin Love which has been a real issue for us (I’m not as critical of that signing - or him - as some others; a 30mpg 17-9 Love with outside shooting would help us now; he’s been injured).

Now that we have a top three pick, plus the Allen decision, plus the Sexton conundrum— roster construction is critical. My questions for this thread: Is Allen someone we want on our team long term? Why or why not? If we draft Mobley does that affect the decision on Allen? If we don’t keep Allen then what do we do at C? Can Hartenstein be effective as a starter? (I think he’s overrated here; he’s either a backup or a weak starter to me).

I just don’t understand why there isn’t more discussion about Allen. I think it’s a worthwhile discussion to have.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

So do the Cavs wait for Allen to become a RFA? That could result in them having to decided between paying him more than they think he's worth (if another team comes up with a big offer) or letting him go when they don't want to.

Or do they try to extend him before Aug. 2 to avoid that possibility? Or do they wait and see who they end up with after the smoke clears on the 29th. If it's Mobley I suppose that could impact what they do with Allen depending on whether they think Mobley will be better as a center or a power forward.

I assume they would want to see how the draft shakes out before making an offer (or not) to Allen.

I think they'll make him an offer at some point after the draft. If they think it is reasonable and he doesn't...then they'll try again when he is an RFA. Possible that they make a decision to trade him, though, depending on how the draft shakes out. I still think they'd want to keep him even if they took Mobley, but I could see Koby making a lot of changes we don't expect.

I don't really see a downside in terms of long-term roster construction from signing Allen because as long as the contract is reasonable, he'll be moveable anyway.

 

[2 For The Brew]

Watch me flip this: The Sexton conversation is pertinent to Allen. Why?

The Cavs love Allen, do not love overpaying him too much. Knowing Sexton's value around the league could allow the franchise to pull the trigger on Allen's contract. We have learned nobody is going to overpay for Sexton and his value around the league is rightly 6th man.

OK, so what’s the estimated market value for Allen and Sexton per year? Put another way - what’s the walk away amount for each in your opinion? Maybe that’s worth a thread on its own - asking everyone the max contract for each of them. For all the Sexton discussion we haven’t really asked the money question (pun intended) but that’s really what matters. I seem to recall @Ben saying $20 Allen and $25 Sexton but I’m not sure about that.

 

[Derek]

OK, so what’s the estimated market value for Allen and Sexton per year? Put another way - what’s the walk away amount for each in your opinion? Maybe that’s worth a thread on its own - asking everyone the max contract for each of them. For all the Sexton discussion we haven’t really asked the money question (pun intended) but that’s really what matters. I seem to recall @Ben saying $20 Allen and $25 Sexton but I’m not sure about that.

Ben said something in the $16-17 million AAV range for Allen (15% of the cap). I don't recall him stating a price for Sexton.

 

[DeeThree]

OK, so what’s the estimated market value for Allen and Sexton per year? Put another way - what’s the walk away amount for each in your opinion? Maybe that’s worth a thread on its own - asking everyone the max contract for each of them. For all the Sexton discussion we haven’t really asked the money question (pun intended) but that’s really what matters. I seem to recall @Ben saying $20 Allen and $25 Sexton but I’m not sure about that.

$20-25

 

[Randolphkeys]

I honestly think the Cavs will view those two contracts as independent. They're not going to pay Allen more than they think he's worth just because they think Sexton will be cheap, and they're not going to low-ball a valuable piece just because they think Sexton will be expensive. Long-term it doesn't make sense, especially when we will have little long-term money committed and we don't know what the other players on the roster will command. Plus, all they could learn about Sexton is his value at this moment. That could go up or down significantly by the end of the season, so I don't think it would make sense to make a decision on Allen's contract based upon a Sexton contract value that could change substantially.

I think all the gauging of value and possible delay in signing Allen is draft-based. Not only because of who we might draft, but because of any trades made relating to the draft.

I believe Allen's value to both the Cavaliers and other franchises is a static one. He was pretty much the same guy with the Nets that he was with the Cavs, so he isn't a player who gets worse or better depending upon team success. Seemed like he eased off the gas pedal at the end of the season, which might have been self-preservation going into negotiations. What level of impact is that role? He's around Clint Capella in value. Capella is a little better controlling the boards, Allen has some more sizzle as a scorer. I see the issue being how much the Cavs value a young top center in a league getting away from true centers. My opinion: vocal fans have less value for Allen than the Cavs hold for him, and the Cavs will retain.

 

[natedagg]

I believe Allen's value to both the Cavaliers and other franchises is a static one. He was pretty much the same guy with the Nets that he was with the Cavs, so he isn't a player who gets worse or better depending upon team success. Seemed like he eased off the gas pedal at the end of the season, which might have been self-preservation going into negotiations. What level of impact is that role? He's around Clint Capella in value. Capella is a little better controlling the boards, Allen has some more sizzle as a scorer. I see the issue being how much the Cavs value a young top center in a league getting away from true centers. My opinion: vocal fans have less value for Allen than the Cavs hold for him, and the Cavs will retain.

Does anyone have splits for Allen in the last 20 games? Didn’t he fall off a cliff at some point? Like I could be wrong but I remember him sucking pretty bad - maybe due to concussions or other health issues or burning out bc we sucked so much.

This could end up in a situation where he doesn’t want the extension now due to this very reason.

Next step is the draft tho. Mobley could end up our “one big mobile awesome defender” guy and that makes Allen more redundant… or some crazy shit could happen where they really augment each others’ game and having both is somehow an unforeseen plus.

Of course we have to see who we get at #3 and/or who we trade. But yes, fit has lessened the priority gap vs talent, particularly looking ahead a couple of years.

 

[Blazie]

I'm also one of those who think that landing Mobley should not affect how JA gets paid or where and how much JA plays on the court, since I see Mobley as a 4.

So I guess I'm saying I think it doesn't matter much how the draft shakes out.

Having said that, there's no reason to rush the signing unless JA decides to sign a team-friendly contract earlier. Let the market temper his expectations... also, I think that allowing those interactions with interested teams will help inform our front office on how much he actually wants to be here... which is hard to discern right now.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I'm also one of those who think that landing Mobley should not affect how JA gets paid or where and how much JA plays on the court, since I see Mobley as a 4.

Agree fully. I believe Mobley is currently the best fit for the roster among the top five in the draft, especially as Love becomes either more moveable or the veteran depth of the frontcourt long-term. While others around this joint are worried Houston likes Green so much, I'm beyond stoked Mobley could fall to us at 3.

 

[Lee]

I honestly think the Cavs will view those two contracts as independent. They're not going to pay Allen more than they think he's worth just because they think Sexton will be cheap, and they're not going to low-ball a valuable piece just because they think Sexton will be expensive. Long-term it doesn't make sense, especially when we will have little long-term money committed and we don't know what the other players on the roster will command. Plus, all they could learn about Sexton is his value at this moment. That could go up or down significantly by the end of the season, so I don't think it would make sense to make a decision on Allen's contract based upon a Sexton contract value that could change substantially.

I think all the gauging of value and possible delay in signing Allen is draft-based. Not only because of who we might draft, but because of any trades made relating to the draft.

Prince is gone after this year, that is 13 mill, love the next year, then Cedi the year after, although he decreases and isnt that bad by his final year at 6.7

Our owner is very, very rich and doesnt mind spending.

I agree, I cant imagine Sexton and Allen extensions are connected neither are max players, but we could afford to max both out....wont happen, just saying propper value is the issue, not how much the other one will get

 

[JJ_PR]

This trade makes us stronger (and hurt our own draft pick )and will most likely prevent us from drafting perhaps the best player in the draft in Mobley.

I don't love paying much for centers. Yes, he is impactful, but he is still pretty one dimensional as an offensive player, is he not?

Tell me, the 2022 draft can still be a double draft, or is that off the table?

There is a very high chance Mobley falls to us. I prefer Green but Mobley would be awesome too.

 

[macbdog]

Allen is a restricted free agent. If the Cavs really want to, they can match any offer that is out there and keep him. The Cavs have the power here.

Oh ok, can't wait to have another big man on the roster who doesn't want to be here.

 

[macbdog]

I really hope we don't overpay for a center. I love what Allen brings but the position is just nowhere near as important as last decade. If Cha offers him 4/100 i would try to negotiate a SnT

What about last year's NBA champs having a fantastic C and both Finals teams having very good centers? I think this logic that centers are not important is heavily flawed. The old plodding fat guy Can who can't shoot beyond 5 feet, yes, but a C who defends and shoots... Invaluable IMO, regardless of how many super scoring midget guards appear.

 

[WorldFreeB]

OK, so what’s the estimated market value for Allen and Sexton per year? Put another way - what’s the walk away amount for each in your opinion? Maybe that’s worth a thread on its own - asking everyone the max contract for each of them. For all the Sexton discussion we haven’t really asked the money question (pun intended) but that’s really what matters. I seem to recall @Ben saying $20 Allen and $25 Sexton but I’m not sure about that.

At the end of the season I had Allen's contract starting at 15 million rising to 20 million. Roughly 4 yrs 70 million.
I had Sexton starting at 20 million and rising to 25 million maybe 4 years and 90 million.
Now I'm thinking that's high for Sexton.