Koby Altman nailed, then failed to take breathalyzer…

[bs80]

There's a legitimate argument about how much upside Allen has left. 4 years in the league, and his production has basically stayed the same regardless of how many minutes he's playing.

You see a guy playing 20 minutes a game, and see some nice Per 36 stats. The thought process is that more minutes will equal more production in those kinds of players. When you increase the minutes, but the end result is a flat line of production, he's got little upside left. Does that mean he can't improve? Not in the least, but what improvements you'll see are going to be minor things, not aspects that would increase his value or production on the floor.

Bringing up Tristan Thompson's contract is about the most ridiculous comparison I've seen. There's nothing comparable about Tristan to Allen. Tristan had the benefit of a Klutch overpay. There isn't a single person on this forum that wasn't bitching at his price tag. And what do you know, it was an untradeable contract, despite the incessant comments about how valuable he was.

I'll quite enjoy watching Allen be unable to be the one man defense that Gobert is, all while getting paid $24 million a year to do while we win 20 games a season.

Looking at Allen as a cornerstone of our team is the wrong idea. He's a solid complimentary piece that's going to give you his standard production when he's on the floor. He's not going to become a 20/10 all star that averages 3 blocks a game.

You pay him like a cornerstone, you're paying to be a lottery team.

Apologies if you already answered this, but what's the most you'd pay him then? If I'm reading the good old internet correctly, a max contract for someone like him is around 5 yrs/$163mm, and I think we all agree that as a solid complementary piece, he's not getting anywhere near that.

 

[Man Called X]

Apologies if you already answered this, but what's the most you'd pay him then? If I'm reading the good old internet correctly, a max contract for someone like him is around 5 yrs/$163mm, and I think we all agree that as a solid complementary piece, he's not getting anywhere near that.

I'm okay with a contract starting at $14-16 million. At most 16-18.

Anything more is just going to be a massive overpay for someone that isn't anchoring our defense.

 

[bs80]

I'm okay with a contract starting at $14-16 million. At most 16-18.

Anything more is just going to be a massive overpay for someone that isn't anchoring our defense.

Do you think there's a reasonable chance that we end up signing him in that neighborhood? I'm just recently getting back into the fold when it comes to what current NBA salaries look like, and I've been pretty freaking shocked at how high the numbers out there are.

Of course, saying that other teams pay marginal players a shit ton of money is no excuse to overpay, but it seems like there is no shortage of role players collecting AAVs north of $15 mil.

I'd hate to watch him walk for nothing, so whether we mean it or not, we need to give the impression that we are going to match any offer sheet he signs that's anywhere near reasonable. I'd be asking myself two questions when it comes to extending him:

1) Is there a decent chance that this contract will become untradeable in a year?
2) Does this contract preclude us from having enough cap space to offer a max contract in FA next summer if we move on from Sexton?

If the answer to either of those is yes, then I wouldn't hesitate to walk away from the table. But in my opinion, that is likely not the case for any deal up to $20 mil per year. At 20, I wouldn't love it at all but I don't think I'd hate it either.

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

Do you think there's a reasonable chance that we end up signing him in that neighborhood? I'm just recently getting back into the fold when it comes to what current NBA salaries look like, and I've been pretty freaking shocked at how high the numbers out there are.

Of course, saying that other teams pay marginal players a shit ton of money is no excuse to overpay, but it seems like there is no shortage of role players collecting AAVs north of $15 mil.

I'd hate to watch him walk for nothing, so whether we mean it or not, we need to give the impression that we are going to match any offer sheet he signs that's anywhere near reasonable. I'd be asking myself two questions when it comes to extending him:

1) Is there a decent chance that this contract will become untradeable in a year?
2) Does this contract preclude us from having enough cap space to offer a max contract in FA next summer if we move on from Sexton?

If the answer to either of those is yes, then I wouldn't hesitate to walk away from the table. But in my opinion, that is likely not the case for any deal up to $20 mil per year. At 20, I wouldn't love it at all but I don't think I'd hate it either.

1). Yes. Let's say Allen get's an offer sheet with an AAV of $22-$25 mill and the Cavs match, then he proceeds to play the entire season like he did the last 20 games or so. If that happens, it's entirely possible he's untradeable or we have to give up something of value to move him. I don't think it happens, but it was pretty apparent that something changed with Allen over the last third of the season. Hopefully it was just an injury he was dealing with and it was never really publicized.

2). Totally irrelevant. Unless that player is named LeBron or we're vastly overpaying someone, there's like a .00009% chance any player widely considered a max contract player will ever sign with Cleveland. We'd have to let Allen and Sexton walk to have that money next offseason, and from the looks of it that still might not be enough to fit a max contract once we add in our pick this year.

 

[bs80]

1). Yes. Let's say Allen get's an offer sheet with an AAV of $22-$25 mill and the Cavs match, then he proceeds to play the entire season like he did the last 20 games or so. If that happens, it's entirely possible he's untradeable or we have to give up something of value to move him. I don't think it happens, but it was pretty apparent that something changed with Allen over the last third of the season. Hopefully it was just an injury he was dealing with and it was never really publicized.

2). Totally irrelevant. Unless that player is named LeBron or we're vastly overpaying someone, there's like a .00009% chance any player widely considered a max contract player will ever sign with Cleveland. We'd have to let Allen and Sexton walk to have that money next offseason, and from the looks of it that still might not be enough to fit a max contract once we add in our pick this year.

1) I absolutely agree with you that it's a risk, and at $22 to $25, I think I'd pass. Sorry if I wasn't clear enough in my previous post -- the $20 mil AAV that I mentioned is about as high as I'd be willing to go. And for me, the question is whether or not there's a decent chance that this contract ends up being a fucking albatross. It's absolutely concerning that he played like shit down the stretch, but he's young enough where I think it's unlikely enough for me to offer him up to $20 per.

2) You're right and I should've acknowledged that much in my original post. It'd take something extraordinary for a true max player to sign a max with us. That being said, there's a certain amount of cap space that I'd want to retain for flexibility, so I arbitrarily set it at the starting cost of one max contract, but even those fluctuate depending on how many years a player has been in the league, so I should've just stated a figure like $33 mil of cap space instead. As of now, assuming we stay put with our #3 pick, we're on the hook for $74.6 mil for the 2022-23 season if we don't pick up Windler's option, and the projected salary cap will be $115.7 mil, so you're most likely right in that there's no way we could generate that much space with any plausible extension.

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

1) I absolutely agree with you that it's a risk, and at $22 to $25, I think I'd pass. Sorry if I wasn't clear enough in my previous post -- the $20 mil AAV that I mentioned is about as high as I'd be willing to go. And for me, the question is whether or not there's a decent chance that this contract ends up being a fucking albatross. It's absolutely concerning that he played like shit down the stretch, but he's young enough where I think it's unlikely enough for me to offer him up to $20 per.

2) You're right and I should've acknowledged that much in my original post. It'd take something extraordinary for a true max player to sign a max with us. That being said, there's a certain amount of cap space that I'd want to retain for flexibility, so I arbitrarily set it at the starting cost of one max contract, but even those fluctuate depending on how many years a player has been in the league, so I should've just stated a figure like $33 mil of cap space instead. As of now, assuming we stay put with our #3 pick, we're on the hook for $74.6 mil for the 2022-23 season if we don't pick up Windler's option, and the projected salary cap will be $115.7 mil, so you're most likely right in that there's no way we could generate that much space with any plausible extension.

Though I don't love it, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cavs matched anything up to 4 years $100 mill. I don't think Allen will get offered anything close to that, but I don't really think they'd let him walk.

In terms of cap number, you'd also have to factor in #3 this year. Not sure what the raise is by year, but LaMelo was #3 last year and the second year of his contract is $8.2 mill. That'd put the Cavs at $82.8 with no Allen or Sexton. That's also making the assumption that we sign no one else in FA this year or with the MLE and we add no money via trade.

 

[bs80]

Though I don't love it, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cavs matched anything up to 4 years $100 mill. I don't think Allen will get offered anything close to that, but I don't really think they'd let him walk.

Perhaps the fact that we got him for so cheap would make it easier to let him walk in that case? I don't agree with that line of thinking, since a sunk cost should be treated as such, but unfortunately these things still have a tendency to influence decisions on the future.

In terms of cap number, you'd also have to factor in #3 this year. Not sure what the raise is by year, but LaMelo was #3 last year and the second year of his contract is $8.2 mill. That'd put the Cavs at $82.8 with no Allen or Sexton. That's also making the assumption that we sign no one else in FA this year or with the MLE and we add no money via trade.

Yup, I factored that in already -- we're talking about our cap space for the 2022-23 season right? Our #3 pick this year is estimated to make $7,065,600 in the 2022-23 season (his 2nd year) according to this link at RealGM.

According to this HoopsHype link, on the books for that season are Love (28.94), LNJ (9.67), Osman (7.43), Garland's team option (8.92), Okoro's team option (7.04), Wade (1.93), Stevens (1.78), Kabengele (1.85), 2021 #3 pick (7.07) on the books, adding up to $74,628,959, with a projected salary cap of $115,662,992, giving us $41,034,033 of projected cap space before extending Allen. I'm a big proponent of trying to agree to a buyout with Love right now so we can put all of the money he gives back over the next two years toward our 2022-23 payroll (not sure if this is legal or not, to be honest -- with a multiyear buyout, do we get to choose how to allocate the savings over the duration of his contract?)

If we can get Jarrett extended with a 2022-23 salary of $20 mil, and get Love to agree to give back $10 mil in a buyout, then we'd still have over $31 mil in cap space, minus our draft picks next year along with the other guys we sign to fill out our roster.

And by the way, can anyone here tell me why HoopsHype is showing Garland and Okoro to both be up for their team options the same year? Was there a chance in how rookie contracts were structured in between their respective draft classes?

 

[buzzdog]

I think people are undervalueing JA because of how he finished out the season. Let's revue. 1) he was never the same after the concussion 2) covid season had everything fucked up 3) all of this was happening in a tank year with half the team injured so do yathink that wouldn't mess with the motivation of even an intelligent guy like JA?

I can see something in the $20-24 mil range because JA is solid as fuck with upside potential. He is going to get better and if we ever field a competitive team watch out for what a motivated JA can do.

 

[foucault87]

I think people are undervalueing JA because of how he finished out the season. Let's revue. 1) he was never the same after the concussion 2) covid season had everything fucked up 3) all of this was happening in a tank year with half the team injured so do yathink that wouldn't mess with the motivation of even an intelligent guy like JA?

I can see something in the $20-24 mil range because JA is solid as fuck with upside potential. He is going to get better and if we ever field a competitive team watch out for what a motivated JA can do.

He spent half the year on the prospective best team in the league and didn't look any different with us...other than shooting worse. I am not sure a realistic projection of his upside gets anywhere near 20m. There are probably fewer than 5 centers in the league worth that range of money, and Allen is a far cry from someone like Ayton or Vuc, who I would rate as the worst of those guys.

 

[Futuredome]

I think people are undervalueing JA because of how he finished out the season. Let's revue. 1) he was never the same after the concussion 2) covid season had everything fucked up 3) all of this was happening in a tank year with half the team injured so do yathink that wouldn't mess with the motivation of even an intelligent guy like JA?

I can see something in the $20-24 mil range because JA is solid as fuck with upside potential. He is going to get better and if we ever field a competitive team watch out for what a motivated JA can do.

Ok Mrs Allen

 

[bs80]

He spent half the year on the prospective best team in the league and didn't look any different with us...other than shooting worse. I am not sure a realistic projection of his upside gets anywhere near 20m. There are probably fewer than 5 centers in the league worth that range of money, and Allen is a far cry from someone like Ayton or Vuc, who I would rate as the worst of those guys.

The Nets team that he played with was not the same team that was a title contender, considering it took trading him to get Harden.

Furthermore, Jarrett had a ridiculous FG% of .677 in his 12 games before being traded.

 

[ryanf]

The Nets team that he played with was not the same team that was a title contender, considering it took trading him to get Harden.

Furthermore, Jarrett had a ridiculous FG% of .677 in his 12 games before being traded.

that nets team already had kyrie and durant.

 

[bs80]

that nets team already had kyrie and durant.

Point taken, but they were hardly the juggernaut that they ended up looking like once Harden joined them. And if I may nitpick here, I just did a quick check on basketball-reference.com and found that in only half of the games that Allen played with the Nets this season did KD and Kyrie both play. And in the five games that he did start for them (and log the most minutes in his stint there) he played with Kyrie once, with Durant twice, and never with both of them at the same time.

I think the dropoff in his shooting percentage and other offensive efficiency markers is more an indictment of the lack of spacing and opportunities in general that he ran into with our roster when he got traded here. Up until the trade, his FG% had increased every season.

 

[buzzdog]

Point taken, but they were hardly the juggernaut that they ended up looking like once Harden joined them. And if I may nitpick here, I just did a quick check on basketball-reference.com and found that in only half of the games that Allen played with the Nets this season did KD and Kyrie both play. And in the five games that he did start for them (and log the most minutes in his stint there) he played with Kyrie once, with Durant twice, and never with both of them at the same time.

I think the dropoff in his shooting percentage and other offensive efficiency markers is more an indictment of the lack of spacing and opportunities in general that he ran into with our roster when he got traded here. Up until the trade, his FG% had increased every season.

Don't bother, the die is cast. JA is as good as he'll ever be. It's all downhill from here for any big man who doesn't improve his stats on a steady regular basis from when he entered the league. Nevermind that the old conventional wisdom used to be that it takes big men longer to develop.

 

[Man Called X]

Don't bother, the die is cast. JA is as good as he'll ever be. It's all downhill from here for any big man who doesn't improve his stats on a steady regular basis from when he entered the league. Nevermind that the old conventional wisdom used to be that it takes big men longer to develop.

Jesus, point on the doll where I hurt you so I can continue laughing in your face.