Exploring a potential Francisco Lindor trade between the Indians and Blue Jays
By Zack Meisel and Kaitlyn McGrath 4h ago 31
Francisco Lindor remains the Cleveland Indians’ most valuable trade chip this winter. But, for as long as his name has swirled in trade rumors, finding the right landing spot for the All-Star shortstop has proven to be a difficult task.
One team that has been regularly linked to Lindor is the Toronto Blue Jays. There is the obvious connection between the teams, with former Indians executives Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins now running the organization. But, Toronto has also made a concerted effort to be aggressive this offseason, seemingly in on every major free agent and leaving no stone unturned in pursuit of transforming their budding, young roster into a perennial contender.
Do the Indians have enough leverage to make a deal happen? And are the Blue Jays interested enough in Lindor? Let’s explore all the angles with Kaitlyn McGrath in Toronto and Zack Meisel in Cleveland.
Meisel: Lindor checks every box as the face of a franchise. He plays a premium position and does so at a Gold Glove level (he’s captured two of those awards). He can hit for average or flex his power muscles, bat leadoff or occupy a spot in the middle of the order. He has grown into a leadership role in recent years. He’s bilingual, intelligent, personable and always smiling and chatting. He’s everything every general manager, marketing director and paying customer would covet.
And yet, this doesn’t have the feeling of that traditional trade of a franchise cornerstone. Maybe that’s because it has been a foregone conclusion for at least a year that the Indians would be parting ways with their shortstop before he reaches free agency. Maybe it’s because Lindor just submitted a somewhat pedestrian season in an abnormal year, and he never got that final farewell from the Cleveland faithful who watched him blossom over the last decade.
The Indians don’t have much leverage here. They’d prefer not to pay Lindor his projected $20 million salary. They’d prefer to acquire some young talent that can help them for years, rather than watch Lindor play out his final year in Cleveland. And everyone in the Milky Way knows the Indians’ chances of striking a long-term agreement with Lindor are infinitesimal.
So, this seems to be a rare occasion in which the team with the superstar player appears to be desperate, and the pandemic-influenced conditions of this offseason only complicate Cleveland’s plans. Rentals, even ones with perennial All-Star ability, aren’t as valuable as they used to be.
The Indians need a helpful, willing trade partner. Ah, look, a couple of familiar faces. Hello, Mark and Ross.
McGrath: The Blue Jays have been eager to do some business this offseason. They’ve been linked to nearly every major free agent, and they’ve made it clear they’re looking to add a high-impact player or two to bolster their young, enticing core.
Lindor fits that description. As you said, he does everything well and he would immediately make their team better — if they could also add a starter, maybe even good enough to take them from playoff contender to World Series contender.
But the Blue Jays don’t need Lindor. They would like him, sure. He would be great to have. But, the Blue Jays aren’t the desperate ones in this arrangement. They currently have a potential future franchise player at shortstop in Bo Bichette. While he’s not the elite fielder Lindor is, Atkins has expressed confidence that sooner than later, we’ll be talking about Bichette as a Gold Glove candidate. And in a small sample, Bichette has impressed with his bat.
If Lindor was acquired, though, Bichette would likely move to second or third base. He wouldn’t love doing it, but, for an elite talent like Lindor, he would for the sake of the team.
Another factor — and what makes this trade tricky — is that Lindor is set to be a free agent after the 2021 season, and the Blue Jays aren’t going to be interested in a rental. Not at this stage of their rebuild. If these trade talks are going to get serious, an extension is going to have to be on the table.
But the Blue Jays are listening. So, first things first, what’s it going to take to acquire Lindor?
Meisel: Youth. The Indians have immediate needs in the infield and outfield, but they are open to a variety of solutions in a deal like this … as long as the players they are receiving haven’t already burned through a bunch of service time. The Indians are in this weird “we swear we aren’t rebuilding, but we’re going to roll out a roster full of 24-year-olds and a payroll in the $50 million range, but we still plan to contend” transitional phase.
The most sensible package would involve at least one position player who has a bit of major-league experience, has proven he can hit and isn’t close to reaching free agency, and then a prospect or two of any type. Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Cavan Biggio would all pique Cleveland’s interest. My instincts tell me the Indians would prioritize the latter two. Toronto’s farm system is equipped with the pieces to round out a deal centered on any of those guys.
McGrath: Who the Blue Jays would be willing to part with may depend on who they end up signing this offseason. But, of the three names you mentioned, the Blue Jays really like Biggio, both for his on-field versatility and intangible values. Hernández and Gurriel are moveable for the right price. Since Gurriel is younger, isn’t a free agent until after the 2024 season and is locked into an affordable contract for three more years, he’s probably the more attractive piece. So, let’s centre a potential deal around Gurriel. Which Toronto prospects do you like?
Meisel: Jordan Groshans, Simeon Woods Richardson, Adam Kloffenstein, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno would all appeal to the Indians (and most teams — boy, do the Blue Jays have some fun pieces in their farm system). Cleveland’s system is filled with 19-year-old middle infielders, and they sprout capable starting pitchers by the bushel, though I don’t think either fact would keep them from acquiring more of each. That said, Kirk or Moreno could be a target because the only catcher with promise in their pipeline is Bo Naylor, and he has some critical development remaining before he convinces the club he’ll be the long-term solution behind the plate once Roberto Pérez’s tenure ends.
Much, obviously, hinges on Lindor’s potential willingness to sign a long-term extension — or Toronto’s confidence that it could keep him north of the border. No one knows what Lindor’s magic number is; he told The Athletic during spring training that the Indians’ offers never reached $300 million. He also wouldn’t reveal whether that amount would seal the deal.
McGrath: Some of the players you mentioned — Groshans, Woods Richardson, Kirk — are liked a lot by the club, clearly, since they’re all top-10 prospects. But I think if we’re talking about a player like Lindor, the Blue Jays would have to be willing to part with some of their top young assets. And their system is likely strong enough that it can weather some subtractions.
If the Indians somehow lower their asking price and the acquisition cost is lowered, maybe the Blue Jays would be OK with this being a one-and-done agreement. But, I suspect Cleveland wants to maximize what it can get for Lindor. So, if the Blue Jays are parting with top prospects, they’ll want some certainty that Lindor would want to stick around with the Blue Jays.
As you said, we don’t know what amount Lindor is looking for, but we can probably guess $300 million is about right, at least aspirationally. The Blue Jays have never spent that kind of money. The closest comparison might be Vernon Wells $126 million extension in 2006.
Since we don’t know the dollar amount for certain, let me ask you another question you might be able to speculate on more deeply. Would Lindor even consider signing a long-term deal with a club like Toronto?
Meisel: He has stressed that he would sign for the right price, that he would love to spend the rest of his career in Cleveland. But we’re left to take him at his word on that. The truth is, no one knows but him and his agent. And maybe his dogs, Paco and Junior.
The two sides reignited contract talks during the spring, but my hunch is — and they’ll never admit to this — both parties entered into the conversation knowing they wouldn’t actually strike a deal.
There is one potential workaround here, though.
The Indians obviously want to maximize value. They would love to spark a bidding war for Lindor, but the league-wide financial ramifications of the pandemic and the fact that he’s a rental might make that a pipe dream. I think the Indians would prefer to aim higher than simply a few years of Gurriel for Lindor, even though Gurriel (a career .287/.327/.508 hitter) is a great fit for Cleveland.
Cleveland’s front office has been playing both the short and long game for a couple of years now, and they’ve prioritized quantity in their significant trades in recent years. They came away with six players in the Mike Clevinger deal and five in the Trevor Bauer trade. I don’t think they’ll obtain that many pieces in this situation, but to help their cause, they could attach a starting pitcher to Lindor.
The Indians have nine major league-ready starting pitchers at their disposal. In a vacuum, they would love to include Carlos Carrasco, since he’ll turn 34 in March and he’s due $12 million each of the next two seasons, with a $14 million club option for 2023 (or a $3 million buyout). But the human element makes it really difficult for the front office. Carrasco is the longest-tenured player in the organization. He was diagnosed with leukemia in 2019. He regularly visits the Cleveland Clinic, both for his own checkups and to brighten the days of everyone in the pediatric cancer ward. He means a lot to the clubhouse and, oh yeah, he’s also still a really good pitcher.
Carrasco is far from the only option, though. The Indians could include a younger starting pitcher. There are plenty from which the Blue Jays could choose. Might that sweeten the offer?
McGrath: This is interesting, and it would definitely sweeten the deal. If the Blue Jays go out and spend a lot on a position-player free agent, turning to the trade market to fill the hole at the top of their rotation could be their best option. Carrasco, an established arm, would fit nicely into the fold in Toronto, slotting in behind Hyun Jin Ryu as their No. 2 option.
But, acquiring a younger starter is also enticing, especially someone who could pair with Nate Pearson as the future studs of the rotation. The pitching factory that is Cleveland has a few options. Zach Plesac, 25, is interesting. He got in trouble off the field this year by breaching team curfew, but on the field, he had a tidy 2.28 ERA in eight starts. Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill (Canadian alert!) are all enticing options, too. That is, if Cleveland is willing to part with any of them, given that they’re all good and cheap.
Meisel: The Indians surely have their own internal pecking order, but each guy presents some uncertainty (through no fault of his own). The team hasn’t yet had a chance to sprinkle its starting-pitcher fairy dust on Quantrill. McKenzie broke onto the scene this season after two years of rehabbing injuries. Plesac pitched like a front-line starter in 2020, but as the old adage goes, an eight-game sample does not an ace make.
That doesn’t mean, however, that these clubs couldn’t find some common ground with the inclusion of a particular pitcher. And perhaps that will have to be part of the framework to compensate for the Blue Jays running the risk of Lindor leaving after 2021. Either way, I’d expect the Indians to ask for someone like Gurriel, plus one of the catching prospects and a second, promising youngster. The Indians have developed a reputation for making initial, lofty demands, though I’m not sure how well that’ll work when dealing with familiar front-office faces.
McGrath: It’s a good point about how friendly front offices might work well together — or not. There’s respect on both ends, but there is also the chance that each GM knows the other’s tricks. Optically, the Toronto front office also doesn’t want to be seen getting fleeced by their former club. (Because, believe it or not, some people here are still talking about the Josh Donaldson trade from 2018.) So, there are pros and cons to working together.
Whether it’s Lindor plus Carrasco or a younger arm, I agree that these clubs could find common ground. Gurriel is the cost of doing business. With their glut of catchers, the Blue Jays can part with one (perhaps Moreno as they may try to hold onto Kirk). If this trade could somehow get done without including Groshans, but instead a young pitcher like Woods Richardson or Kloffenstein, maybe it gains even more traction.
A lot also depends on what else the Blue Jays manage to do this offseason. If all their top-shelf free-agent targets sign elsewhere and they come up empty, maybe the urgency to acquire Lindor increases.
Still, I think this all hinges on whether they can get an idea of what an extension looks like and whether Lindor would consider Toronto a long-term home. Could the Blue Jays deal for him and hope he loves his 2021 season in Toronto — if they even play here, which is another factor — so much that he wants to stay? Sure. But they could also aggressively woo him, and he could still decide to leave to test the free-agent market and sign somewhere else. (Raptors fans know the feeling.) Alternatively, the Blue Jays could not trade for him now and hope to try and sign him if/when he becomes a free agent.
This is going to be a bit of an unsatisfactory conclusion, but until we see how the Blue Jays’ free-agent pursuits pan out, it’s difficult to gauge how serious their interest level is. And, even if they are interested, the next question is whether Toronto is trading for one year of Lindor or 10? We don’t know — and that’s why this trade is so difficult to project.
