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Luka Doncic

Nathan S

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A thread for one of the most interesting, most hyped prospects in NBA history. Will he boom or bust (or somewhere in between)?

Pro: At an age when no previous Euro prospect was more than a decent roleplayer, he had one of the greatest individual seasons in European basketball history, first helping Slovenia to an upset win in Eurobasket, then taking home championships and league MVP honors in Euroleague and the Spanish ACB League, arguably the second and third best leagues in the world respectively. Since 2015 he's been tested unlike any previous prospect, across long seasons, against former and current NBA players, and in high-pressure playoff situations.

Pro: Statistically he runs laps around all past NBA prospects, scoring prolifically from all parts of the court, maintaining an excellent assist/TO ratio, gobbling up rebounds, and tallying a respectable number of steals and blocks while facing a longer, tougher schedule than any other prospect.

Con: He lacks the trademark explosion of an NBA superstar, tallying only 7 dunks and 16 blocks across 37 ACB league games this season. Players his size who lack the explosion to consistently make plays above the rim seem to top out as great starters and occasional all-stars, not superstars.

Con: He's on course to become the fastest player to 5000 professional minutes in basketball history, and there were signs toward the end of this season that the heavy workload was taking its toll as he struggled with fatigue and nagging injuries. Will his body hold up as his minutes load continues to increase?

Discuss!
 

KilgoreTrout

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Would bang his mom
I bet, if/when she speaks English, she stresses the wrong syllable in words ALL THE TIME. Like, I bet she pronounces it "ineVITable".

I always find that super-sexy. I melt.
 

Jstock12

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He has that Harden old man's game... The craftiness, strong use of angles, great court vision... He has a tremendously high floor. I think it's almost a sure thing he'll be a starter, even on a good playoff team. But his ceiling isn't as high due to limited athleticism and average length. If you gave this kid Billy Preston's body and athletic ability, he'd be a sure fire superstar.
 
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Cavatt

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I think with his size, his athleticism isn't going to be a problem. I think he can get strong enough to compensate. He is also too smart to become limited by athleticism.

Dirk figured it out and while Dirk is even bigger he never had fast twitch explosion.

Athleticism is the one thing you can compromise on as a superstar. IQ/feel for the game, and skills you cannot.

I think Doncic ends up looking more athletic than people think right now anyway. He is not in NBA shape yet.
 

ACisKING

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I feel like he has a very high floor. With his skill, size, and court vision at the very worst he will become a solid starter or sixth man. But I do question exactly how high his ceiling is. He is slow as molasses for a perimter player and doesn’t have explosive finishing ability. I’m curious how he deals with NBA level athleticism and length.
 

PIP

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I think he’ll be a bust based on expectations...

Then again you’re talking about today’s NBA player where you’re more worried about building your brand and posting pics on IG than working on your game, becoming a lock down defender and being highly competitive...

So maybe he’ll be ok ?
 

Mavaliersfan

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The people who are down on him haven't actually watched him play I would reckon. He's not your typical Euroleague player, his game should translate very nicely to the NBA. If you let him get in the lane you're dead because he's already a mismatch as a 6'8" 230 lb guard, is very crafty, deceptively strong, can finish in traffic, can flop, and he can kill you with his passing if you double him. It's actually very similar to what James Harden does.

He's a devastating offensive presence even when his shot isn't falling. And his shot is better than his percentages indicate, he got cold late in the season, but in Euroleague they are allowed to do a lot more on perimeter defense and because Doncic is the team's number 1 option (Euroleague MVP) he commands a lot of defensive attention.

As a rookie he'll have 3 years of pro experience already, was a key starter on Slovenia's 2017 FIBA Eurobasket team that won it all, his Real Madrid team notched a win over the OKC Thunder in a preseason game in 2016 in which he played.

In a summer league interview Kevin Pelton was asked, based on his analytics, what would be the top of the draft. Kevin said that Young would be second (while also being a high bust/reward guy) and Doncic would be first. He said that Doncic has the best projection, based on his analytics, dating all the way back to 2003. Same projection as Davis, according to Pelton. That doesn't spell bust to me.
 

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View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8RjmJdW2Bs


Doncic was freaking 16 years old at the time playing against one of the top 3 teams in Europe in CSKA (Teodosic, De Colo)
It's really mind boggling how good he is for his age. Players on Real Madrid's 2015-16 roster who posted a lower PER than 16-year-old Doncic include:

-Rudy Fernandez (24th pick in 2007 draft, played a few seasons for the Blazers)

-Jaycee Carroll (Utah State grad, WAC POY, 14th in career NCAA win shares)

-Andres Nocioni (Played several seasons in the NBA)

-Jeffery Taylor (31st pick in the 2012 draft, played a few seasons for Charlotte)

-Trey Thompkins (Star player for Georgia, 37th pick in the 2011 draft, brief stint w/ Clippers)

-KC Rivers (Clemson grad, arguably Clemson's second best player after Trevor Booker)

Now imagine if instead he had decided to go to college that year. In spite of being the age of a typical high school Junior, he probably would've been one of the better players in the NCAA. For the 2016-17 season he still would've been the youngest player in the NCAA, but probably good enough to lead a team and contend for the Wooden Award. People would be talking about him very differently.
 

cavsfever

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The people who are down on him haven't actually watched him play I would reckon. He's not your typical Euroleague player, his game should translate very nicely to the NBA. If you let him get in the lane you're dead because he's already a mismatch as a 6'8" 230 lb guard, is very crafty, deceptively strong, can finish in traffic, can flop, and he can kill you with his passing if you double him. It's actually very similar to what James Harden does.

He's a devastating offensive presence even when his shot isn't falling. And his shot is better than his percentages indicate, he got cold late in the season, but in Euroleague they are allowed to do a lot more on perimeter defense and because Doncic is the team's number 1 option (Euroleague MVP) he commands a lot of defensive attention.

As a rookie he'll have 3 years of pro experience already, was a key starter on Slovenia's 2017 FIBA Eurobasket team that won it all, his Real Madrid team notched a win over the OKC Thunder in a preseason game in 2016 in which he played.

In a summer league interview Kevin Pelton was asked, based on his analytics, what would be the top of the draft. Kevin said that Young would be second (while also being a high bust/reward guy) and Doncic would be first. He said that Doncic has the best projection, based on his analytics, dating all the way back to 2003. Same projection as Davis, according to Pelton. That doesn't spell bust to me.
I think the teams that passed on Doncic are going to regret it for sure.
 

Jstock12

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^ In the last video it literally took him 4 seconds to go from coast to coast for a dunk while 3 guys attempted to interfere with him. That's at the very least average athleticism by the NBA standards.
 

Nathan S

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^ In the last video it literally took him 4 seconds to go from coast to coast for a dunk while 3 guys attempted to interfere with him. That's at the very least average athleticism by the NBA standards.
Here's another clip where you can see his speed in the open court at 0:30. Gets the ball with 6.5 seconds on the clock about even with the top of the restricted area. Outsprints his man and crosses the top of the opposite 3-point line with 4.0 seconds on the clock, collapses the defense, and whips a (somewhat off-target) pass to the shooter for a buzzer beater.

 
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