MLB Lock-Out is Finally Freakin’ Over

[Benway]

So ST delayed, season starts on time.
Where did I hear that prediction?
Was it here?

 

[Gson]

If the CBA is going to get done.. a proposed deal that could lead to an agreement needs to be on the table by Friday..

Otherwise.. a lot of finger pointing.. will ensue over:

-Local/National Revenue Sharing: How is the money required to be spent (~ $ 130 MM per team in 2019)
-W/ Revenue Sharing: How do Owners/Players assure competitiveness for every game
-Minimum Player Salary: players and owners are off about $ 76 MM
-Bonus Pool for younger players: players and owners are off about $ 90 MM
-Service Time Manipulation: No substantial change
-Luxury Tax Threshold: players and owners are off about $ 900 MM (No floor has been proposed)
..(...214 MM v 245 MM per team x 30 teams.. won't happen.. the scope of the number is a myth..)
-Playoff Constitution: players and owners are four teams off..
-Draft Issues including Incentive picks, QO compensation/penalty, International Draft: unaddressed
-Competitive/On field/Rule changes are likely to be more readily or easily resolved once these core financial issues are agreed upon.. These include things like pre-tacked baseballs, pitch clock, 7 inning double headers, runner in scoring position in extra inning games, robo umpires, infield shifts and universal DH..

This is a big pile to resolve.. Pitchers and Catchers are due to report to Spring Training in 9 days..the world was created in 7.. so, this shouldn't be insurmountable..

Thoughts?

 

[macbdog]

I still think if baseball wants to prevent tanking, they need to flip the draft. Create a lottery for the first 8 picks from the teams that made the playoffs minus the two World Series teams. Start to reward winning and punish tanking.

 

[CDAV45]

I still think if baseball wants to prevent tanking, they need to flip the draft. Create a lottery for the first 8 picks from the teams that made the playoffs minus the two World Series teams. Start to reward winning and punish tanking.

That's fine and all, but if you're going to do that then teams' profits should go to the league who then distributes them evenly. Otherwise you're just pouring fuel on the fire.

 

[petes999]

If the CBA is going to get done.. a proposed deal that could lead to an agreement needs to be on the table by Friday..

Otherwise.. a lot of finger pointing.. will ensue over:

-Local/National Revenue Sharing: How is the money required to be spent (~ $ 130 MM per team in 2019)
-W/ Revenue Sharing: How do Owners/Players assure competitiveness for every game
-Minimum Player Salary: players and owners are off about $ 76 MM
-Bonus Pool for younger players: players and owners are off about $ 90 MM
-Service Time Manipulation: No substantial change
-Luxury Tax Threshold: players and owners are off about $ 900 MM (No floor has been proposed)
..(...214 MM v 245 MM per team x 30 teams.. won't happen.. the scope of the number is a myth..)
-Playoff Constitution: players and owners are four teams off..
-Draft Issues including Incentive picks, QO compensation/penalty, International Draft: unaddressed
-Competitive/On field/Rule changes are likely to be more readily or easily resolved once these core financial issues are agreed upon.. These include things like pre-tacked baseballs, pitch clock, 7 inning double headers, runner in scoring position in extra inning games, robo umpires, infield shifts and universal DH..

This is a big pile to resolve.. Pitchers and Catchers are due to report to Spring Training in 9 days..the world was created in 7.. so, this shouldn't be insurmountable..

Thoughts?

I always said ... when owners and players said that they want to do the best for the fans and avoid delaying opening game, it was more of what they were supposed to say. Everyone does what is best for them.

You have a good summary (think you left off the biggest issue of if arbiration starts after 2 years or 3 years -- as that added 4th year arb # could be huge - a lot closer to FA $). In addition, sometimes it is better to show some of the other #s by team

Minimum Salary - $2.5 million ($1.25 mill if they meet in the middle)
Pre-arb Bonus Pool - $3 million ($1.5 mill if they meet in the middle)

Now, I am usually an owner/business advocate as they need to make some money and they usually take most of the risk. However, I noticed that the players moved their $105 million arb bonus pool to $100 million, yesterday. I do not blame them for slow playing their negotiations as the owners did that with their initial $10 million bonus pool. $10 million really? That is $333,333 per team and it is actually paid from the collective pool before it is split out to the teams (so Cleveland, Tampa and Pittsburg players may receive more due their teams using more younger players but the teams do not actually pay that higher share as it is split evenly).

Now, the owners did make a big concession to players that isn't being discussed as much -- the housing and increase in minor league pay. Yet, that is just a small amount of a $10 billion in annual revenue. I think I saw pay increase by $200 per week on average and say housing allowance is $200 per week and that is a total $400 per week for say 25 players = $10,000 per week per team say for 30 weeks = $1.2-$1.5 million per team (let's round up to $2 million). Now, owners will say they are spending "hundreds of million" to improve minor league facilities but that is amortized out by 30 teams over 10-20 years ... so another $1-3 million per team per year. So far, nothing major, maybe $5-6 million per team to take care of these younger players with all from above (but they did cut out a team or two from their system last year to help offset this).

As for luxury tax, I get where the MLB wants competitiveness and thus doesn't want to increase it too much, but where is all the money is going?
Just looking at national TV revenue (not even local or merch sales)
2007-13 - $754 million
2014-21 $1.5 billion
2021-22 $1.85 billion (that is $350 million per year increase or $12 million per team)

The luxury tax went from $190 million in 2014 to proposed $214 ($24 million increase) but as you said very few teams pay that upper level. And my TV numbers doesn't include local TV revenue or as Bimbo alludes to, more increases coming over next few years from things like streaming games. And, in comparison, the luxury tax was $148 million back in 2007 .... so national TV revenue increase by 2.5x since 2007 and owners only want the luxury tax to go up by not even 50%. Yet, of course, some markets have attendance dropping but tell me that they price of beer has gone up by a similar 50% since 2007?

I get the game is in step decline and thus owners are not going to go all out as they are fearful what the next 10-20 years may hold. Look at the WS viewership ... It was around 35 million in 1970 and not it is down to 15 million per game but more people live in US (share went from 30% to 10%).

World Series television ratings - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

A lockout and this penny pinching/hoarding on both sides is going to ruin the game even more.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I get the game is in step decline and thus owners are not going to go all out as they are fearful what the next 10-20 years may hold. Look at the WS viewership ... It was around 35 million in 1970 and not it is down to 15 million per game but more people live in US (share went from 30% to 10%).

World Series television ratings - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This is a huge issue that the owners are never going to talk about to publicly because they don't want to create negative PR for their game. But it is absolutely true that declining markets scare the crap out of business. That is especially true when there are poor relations between labor and management, and management believes that the union will never give back during the course of a contract no matter how bad things get.

You can't find a unionized industry that did not have severe late stoppages when their markets were in decline.

 

[Gson]

The revenue amounts are whatever they're going to be. I'm pretty sure it's more than what I've said and probably more than anyone will admit.. The issue the union has is the uses by the ownership of the revenues. These revenues are supposed to be spent on helping to keep/make the clubs competitive.... Yet the belief is there are a handful of owners who are content to take their revenue sharing checks and pocketing them. The players believe & know the spending to achieve competitiveness is best achieved by spending on player salaries.. at least the lions share.. While adding new nails to hang clothes on in the clubhouse can be, in a zen-like way, a means of spending to achieve better competitiveness.. the actual spending.. falls a little short of what could be reasonably considered fully spending these revenues. Without an auditable & full accounting.. mistrust remains.. Therein lies the reason for the contentiousness..

-It has been reported that the service time manipulation has been tabled/will not change.. that is.. Arbitration system is not going to change for this CBA..

 

[petes999]

-It has been reported that the service time manipulation has been tabled/will not change.. that is.. Arbitration system is not going to change for this CBA..

So, far I haven't seen anything that union gave up their initial position on wanting arbitration to start after 2 years (manipulating that first year is an independent and separate issue - but less of issue if it's 2 years for arb versus 3 years except for super 2 players). You may be correct as we are only seeing tidbits. However, I thought union gave up on 5 years of FA relatively easily (as it would not happen) but also as another year of arb (for those not in 22% eligible for Super 2) was almost as good too (and maybe still a tool to get something else they want more).

Per MLBTR from Monday-- Recent negotiations appear to have yielded a potential compromise in principle, if not in monetary value. Though the union has not yet dropped its demand for an additional year of arbitration eligibility, each side has proposed the creation of a salary pool for pre-arbitration players — owners have offered $10MM, players have asked for $105MM

 

[sportscoach]

So, far I haven't seen anything that union gave up their initial position on wanting arbitration to start after 2 years (manipulating that first year is an independent and separate issue - but less of issue if it's 2 years for arb versus 3 years except for super 2 players). You may be correct as we are only seeing tidbits. However, I thought union gave up on 5 years of FA relatively easily (as it would not happen) but also as another year of arb (for those not in 22% eligible for Super 2) was almost as good too (and maybe still a tool to get something else they want more).

Per MLBTR from Monday-- Recent negotiations appear to have yielded a potential compromise in principle, if not in monetary value. Though the union has not yet dropped its demand for an additional year of arbitration eligibility, each side has proposed the creation of a salary pool for pre-arbitration players — owners have offered $10MM, players have asked for $105MM

Sounds like players will get bonuses somehow from pre-arb stats, but not sure how much yet, but it is likely to happen...

 

[Mott the Hoople]

The players have incentive to start the season on time. They don't want pro-rated pay. The owners want 81 home dates. The losers in a shortened spring training are the local economies in Arizona and Florida. The little guys.
There's no incentive for either side to get serious for a couple of weeks.

 

[sportscoach]

The players have incentive to start the season on time. They don't want pro-rated pay. The owners want 81 home dates. The losers in a shortened spring training are the local economies in Arizona and Florida. The little guys.
There's no incentive for either side to get serious for a couple of weeks.

Can the government find them if they dont get a move on since they have a trust over the game? lol

Honestly baseball cannot lose time to the strike since it may be hard to get back from it... Hockey still is having trouble and i dont see it getting any better for them... baseball is losing fans to begin with and a strike this season losing games will lose more casual fans than they can afford to lose...

 

[CDAV45]

So what exactly are the players offering in negotiations that they currently have? Not getting some of what you're asking for or using what you're asking for and don't actually have is not negotiating IMO. It seems that everything is tied to what the owners will be giving.

I believe you could likely correlate the declination of the league's viewers with the incredible hike in the best players' salaries. It's become a lopsided game that favors the large markets. I mean isn't it blatantly obvious? Just like everything else in life, if you want to see how it got jacked up just follow the money. Fucking greedy players, agents, and owners are the bad actors here. This won't be fixed until there is a cap and revenues equally split between the teams. Anything else is just the rich trying to keep as much as they can and spend other peoples' money.

The MLBPA is shit and operates like anything but a union. The league is garbage because it didn't curtail this bullshit when it started and played right into the hands of assholes like Scott Boras.

 

[petes999]

CDAV -- Unfortunately, with union contracts (the good, bad and the ugly) is everything needs to be negotiated each cycle as even the minimum salary (of a mere $575,000) doesn't increase unless it is in the CBA. And, how they are usually written is there is not even a minimum salary (in some situations) for the year after things expire. Don't have exact language but in a summary it is listed as
Minimum Salary: The minimum salary increases to $535,000 in 2017, $545,000 in 2018, $555,000 in 2019, with cost-of-living increases in 2020 and 2021.

I guess they could assume they get no increases ... and just carry on as is ...

And, it really isn't talked about but the union (way back when) had arbitration after 2 years but
"Salary Arbitration: At the urging of Commissioner Ueberroth, service time required to be eligible for salary arbitration increases from two years to three years, beginning in 1987. Owners drop their attempt to cap salary arbitration awards to 100 percent over the previous year’s salary."

CBA History | Cot's Baseball Contracts

legacy.baseballprospectus.com

For myself, I hate to route for either billionaires or millionaires. That is why I like minor league baseball (get paid peanuts) and why I use to really like college football (before NIL). It's about the love of the game vs love of the $$$ for me.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

If there is an actual strike, I think this time the effect would be catastrophic. MLB would be relegated to the 3rd or 4th ranked national sport. Drastic attendance decrease, shifting franchises, drastic rule changes (like 7 inning games).
The world has enough problems to deal with. Don't think there will be much sympathy for ballplayers.

 

[jup]

Asking for a mediator - interesting development

When I heard the last meeting was contentious (a yelling match as some reporters characterized it), sounded to me like progress. You only start yelling when you get serious and so yelling usually means they are actually getting down to business. But now a mediator .... didn't see that one coming