If the CBA is going to get done.. a proposed deal that could lead to an agreement needs to be on the table by Friday..
Otherwise.. a lot of finger pointing.. will ensue over:
-Local/National Revenue Sharing: How is the money required to be spent (~ $ 130 MM per team in 2019)
-W/ Revenue Sharing: How do Owners/Players assure competitiveness for every game
-Minimum Player Salary: players and owners are off about $ 76 MM
-Bonus Pool for younger players: players and owners are off about $ 90 MM
-Service Time Manipulation: No substantial change
-Luxury Tax Threshold: players and owners are off about $ 900 MM (No floor has been proposed)
..(...214 MM v 245 MM per team x 30 teams.. won't happen.. the scope of the number is a myth..)
-Playoff Constitution: players and owners are four teams off..
-Draft Issues including Incentive picks, QO compensation/penalty, International Draft: unaddressed
-Competitive/On field/Rule changes are likely to be more readily or easily resolved once these core financial issues are agreed upon.. These include things like pre-tacked baseballs, pitch clock, 7 inning double headers, runner in scoring position in extra inning games, robo umpires, infield shifts and universal DH..
This is a big pile to resolve.. Pitchers and Catchers are due to report to Spring Training in 9 days..the world was created in 7.. so, this shouldn't be insurmountable..
Thoughts?
I always said ... when owners and players said that they want to do the best for the fans and avoid delaying opening game, it was more of what they were supposed to say. Everyone does what is best for them.
You have a good summary (think you left off the biggest issue of if arbiration starts after 2 years or 3 years -- as that added 4th year arb # could be huge - a lot closer to FA $). In addition, sometimes it is better to show some of the other #s by team
Minimum Salary - $2.5 million ($1.25 mill if they meet in the middle)
Pre-arb Bonus Pool - $3 million ($1.5 mill if they meet in the middle)
Now, I am usually an owner/business advocate as they need to make some money and they usually take most of the risk. However, I noticed that the players moved their $105 million arb bonus pool to $100 million, yesterday. I do not blame them for slow playing their negotiations as the owners did that with their initial $10 million bonus pool. $10 million really? That is $333,333 per team and it is actually paid from the collective pool before it is split out to the teams (so Cleveland, Tampa and Pittsburg players may receive more due their teams using more younger players but the teams do not actually pay that higher share as it is split evenly).
Now, the owners did make a big concession to players that isn't being discussed as much -- the housing and increase in minor league pay. Yet, that is just a small amount of a $10 billion in annual revenue. I think I saw pay increase by $200 per week on average and say housing allowance is $200 per week and that is a total $400 per week for say 25 players = $10,000 per week per team say for 30 weeks = $1.2-$1.5 million per team (let's round up to $2 million). Now, owners will say they are spending "hundreds of million" to improve minor league facilities but that is amortized out by 30 teams over 10-20 years ... so another $1-3 million per team per year. So far, nothing major, maybe $5-6 million per team to take care of these younger players with all from above (but they did cut out a team or two from their system last year to help offset this).
As for luxury tax, I get where the MLB wants competitiveness and thus doesn't want to increase it too much, but where is all the money is going?
Just looking at national TV revenue (not even local or merch sales)
2007-13 - $754 million
2014-21 $1.5 billion
2021-22 $1.85 billion (that is $350 million per year increase or $12 million per team)
The luxury tax went from $190 million in 2014 to proposed $214 ($24 million increase) but as you said very few teams pay that upper level. And my TV numbers doesn't include local TV revenue or as Bimbo alludes to, more increases coming over next few years from things like streaming games. And, in comparison, the luxury tax was $148 million back in 2007 .... so national TV revenue increase by 2.5x since 2007 and owners only want the luxury tax to go up by not even 50%. Yet, of course, some markets have attendance dropping but tell me that they price of beer has gone up by a similar 50% since 2007?
I get the game is in step decline and thus owners are not going to go all out as they are fearful what the next 10-20 years may hold. Look at the WS viewership ... It was around 35 million in 1970 and not it is down to 15 million per game but more people live in US (share went from 30% to 10%).
en.wikipedia.org
A lockout and this penny pinching/hoarding on both sides is going to ruin the game even more.