OT: Gambling 2019 Thread

[AZ_]

Iowa -1 at ISU
Georgia St/Western Mich Over 69
Arkansas -10 v Colorado St
SMU -17 vs Tex St.

6pt Teaser:
Bama -19.5
UCF -3

10pt Teaser:
Georgia -23 v Arky St
Michigan St -5.5 vs ASU
Oklahoma -12.5 at UCLA

10pt Teaser:
BYU +14 vs USC
Kentucky +19 vs Florida
Northwestern St +61.5 at LSU

Push
L
W
W

W
L
W

53 at half in the GaSt/WM game. Tough

Michigan State is my own folly, it’s still Mark Dantonio.

 

[billmac91]

Was basically 3-2 last week with way Aub/Tulane line moved. 7-0 prior to that.

I'm gonna continue to ride KY. I know their starting QB is out, but their backup is a very solid player, who led Troy to a very strong season last year. And I'd just say KY's QB had been nursing a knee injury for the last 2 years anyway. His mobility wasn't as strong as one would think. I just have a feeling that's a 1 score game and it comes down to the wire. I've got it at +9.

Auburn -35 vs Kent State......I thought Auburn played pretty poorly against Tulane but still pulled off the cover. They're 2-0 and will be entering league play soon. I like Malzahn to fine tune this offense. I like Auburn's back-up QB who is more mobile than Bo Nix and it sounds like he will get more time to get see if they can get run game activated. I don't think Kent State does anything offensively.

Oklahoma -23.5 vs UCLA......Feels like a lot of points, but man UCLA is bad. I don't see UCLA doing anything to stop Hurts, and I think OU's defense is aggressive enough to force a turnover or two. I think OU is covering by early 3rd Q. Only cause for concern is a backdoor cover late in game is OU has it well in hand.

UGA -32 vs Arky State......Another tune-up game, but I expect Georgia to flat out dominate. 32 is a lot of points but I expect the cover.

Houston +9 vs Washington State......I expect a shootout, but I also think Hou has a chance to win this game. Houston looked good in second half against OU, and I think Holgorsen can build off that. D'Eriq King is the quickest/fastest QB in the country, and I expect he will give WSU defense all they can handle. My biggest concern is I don't think Houston's defense is very good, so it's all about Hou being able to match points.

That’s another 5-0 week.....as Mike Price was once quoted as saying prior to be being fired at Alabama...”it’s rolling baby, it’s rolling”.

15-2 on my picks so far. Let’s keep it rolling.....

 

[AZ_]

7pt Teaser:
KC even at Oakland
Arizona +20 at Baltimore

6pt:
Jacksonville +14 at Houston
Tennessee +3.5 vs Indy

 

[AZ_]

2-0

 

[Triplethreat]

Thought the Chargers in Detroit were the lock of the century.....

Then they fumbled on the 1..... then they missed a FG doinked off the upright..... then they missed another FG....

YIKES MAN Chargers gonna Charger

 

[Otsego Mar]

Thought the Chargers in Detroit were the lock of the century.....

Then they fumbled on the 1..... then they missed a FG doinked off the upright..... then they missed another FG....

YIKES MAN Chargers gonna Charger

Very odd week....many injuries, many weird games.

 

[billmac91]

NFL is too unpredictable for me. So much parity week to week, and honestly, the game just moves too fast IMO. A few first downs in a possession and you're already half-way through a quarter.

It's one of the reasons I prefer college. I find it more predictable, and because of clock stoppages on first downs, I feel the better team typically has more opportunity to win. I feel like the NFL is a lot more "lucky guessing"...at least for me.

 

[AZ_]

NFL is too unpredictable for me. So much parity week to week, and honestly, the game just moves too fast IMO. A few first downs in a possession and you're already half-way through a quarter.

It's one of the reasons I prefer college. I find it more predictable, and because of clock stoppages on first downs, I feel the better team typically has more opportunity to win. I feel like the NFL is a lot more "lucky guessing"...at least for me.

This is why I've tended to adopt a Teaser strategy for the NFL.

The games are so often close because of the time crunch and parity, being able to peg games like AZ +20 or Jags +14 is often too easy to hit so long as the opposing team hasn't completely given up (as Miami has).

Its been moderately successful for me, but still hammering points and totals in NCAA.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Gambling this week was very annoying.....felt like Iowa State and Houston both just sloppily gave their moneyline games away. Probably a lesson in just taking the points, as both covered.

Houston was the bigger disappointment. Looked liked the superior team for a half and then fumble an exchange to start the third quarter. Kind of just unraveled from there.

 

[I'mWithDan]

NFL is too unpredictable for me. So much parity week to week, and honestly, the game just moves too fast IMO. A few first downs in a possession and you're already half-way through a quarter.

It's one of the reasons I prefer college. I find it more predictable, and because of clock stoppages on first downs, I feel the better team typically has more opportunity to win. I feel like the NFL is a lot more "lucky guessing"...at least for me.

Also, professionals are just more consistent......and any degree of consistency, with how good oddsmakers are, just takes any gambling edge out out of the equation (for a vast, vast majority of games).

There's just a lot more value in college, given the larger slate of games and the variance of player performance week to week.

 

[chrisrich91]

My NFL parlay for this week was all MLs:

Ravens -760
Cowboys -245
Texans -420
Chiefs -310
Bears -135
Browns -280

Total parlay +516

Can't believe I allowed myself to build a parlay that could hinge on a Browns win....

Texans and Bears made me sweat.

 

[tristan+kyrie=$]

Did a 3 teamer using this 500 refund using PA FanDuel app... hit cowboys spread and chiefs money line and it comes down to the browns... oh boy

 

[Pick6]

Did a 3 teamer using this 500 refund using PA FanDuel app... hit cowboys spread and chiefs money line and it comes down to the browns... oh boy

Fan Duel app is nice. Realized I could use it while visiting the GF's family this weekend. Needless to say...I'm going to get there as much as I can during football season. I'm already jonesin'!

 

[AZ_]

Got to my phone in time to double down on the Browns -14 once Falk came in.

Sweaty second half...

But a hell of a payout along with the original -2.5.

Fantastic weekend.

 

[billmac91]

Just put my picks in for CFB on Saturday....liked the lines where they’re at so jumped now. A little off the board on most games but it’s where I see the value....

Syr -6 vs Western Mich....get right game for Cuse after two tough weeks. They actually looked decent against Clemson for a while....think they win by 10+..game at home for Cuse

Wash -6 vs BYU...BYU has been bad, Washington struggled vs Cal but they’re a solid team....think Washington is undervalued here...game at BYU

UAB -10 vs Southern Alabama....UAB good mid major, undefeated. Southern Bama not very good. Game at UAB

Coastal Carolina -17 vs UMASS....UMASS has been bludgeoned every game, including against trash (Rutgers). Coastal Carolina is a decent squad (beat Kansas at Kansas a few weeks ago)...game at UMASS

Texas -5 vs Okie State....OSU hasn’t played anyone yet. Texas shouldn’t have issues pounding ball and putting points up. Gundy makes me a little nervous but I like the physicality Texas plays with offensively, and their efficiency in short yardage (just like JT Barrett at Ohio State). Texas gets the hard yards. Game at Texas.