Adding Clemson -36
GT is returning almost nobody, completely transforming their offense, and Clemson's offense nearly all returns. Additionally, Clemson backup QB Chase Brice is not a bad player, and has experience on the field for the anticipated second team switch in the 2H.
Big number, but there is a reason for it.
This helped me feel better about having watched that UCLA performance.
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If they didn’t have stuff like this they’d attract people like me who have no interest in sports gambling but view betting heavy favorites as a very low risk way to walk away with the bonus and whatever small winnings I made on betting heavy favorites
Don’t think it’s them trying to get one over on people, but instead them trying to prevent people from getting one over on them
Here is what my algorithm has for tonight's games:
Utah State 38, Wake Forest 29
What would drive a 9 point road win for Utah State as a dog?
Wake is getting a ton of action late here, as people have been assessing lines.
I mentioned that game earlier and it pushed as high as -5 and has settled back in at -4.5.
I'm curious what metrics indicate a potential 2 TD swing against the spread.
Rush | Pass | Total | OYPP | Score | |
Utah State | 164.0 | 262.3 | 426.3 | 11.3 | 37.6 |
Wake Forest | 169.2 | 211.5 | 380.6 | 13.12 | 28.9 |
It's a good question.
There are certain downfalls to my statistics-based ranking and projections system. Admittedly, this is also the first time I've ever used Phil Steele's projections as a base within the system.
But, it essentially adjusts teams ability based on what they accomplished against the teams they've played. Since it's week one, I'm using the season-long projections for each team. So the projections are only as good as Steele's estimations. ALSO, in the past, it has had difficulty with certain types of games. This is probably one of those.
Here is how the system rates both teams:
Utah State: 31st overall, 20th offense, 53rd defense
Wake Forest: 79th overall, 44th offense, 96th defense
This is what it spits out as a projection for the game:
Rush Pass Total OYPP Score Utah State 164.0 262.3 426.3 11.3 37.6 Wake Forest 169.2 211.5 380.6 13.12 28.9
I'm really just evaluating how this does this year and playing some really small bets until I have more data.
Usually, around week five it starts hitting pretty well once I have solid data from this season to use, instead of projections.
To break down the Utah State game a bit further (I'm also a little worried about them because they only return like two starters on offense).
Projections (Took Phil Steele's projected stats and adjusted them based on how well those teams would have done against their schedule)
Utah State 83rd in the nation in projected rushing yards, 44th in projected passing yards, 42nd in rushing yards allowed and 75th and passing yards allowed
Wake Forest 32nd in rushing, 82nd in passing, 92nd in rushing defense and 94th in passing defense
It seems like the algo just likes the matchup for Utah State. It thinks they are going to be a very efficient team this year.
It's hard to project this sort of thing, but I really like the Yards Per Point stat, which kind of boils down the scoring efficiency of your team. It projects Utah State to finish second in the nation in offensive yards per point. This means it projects them to take care of the football and get good field position etc.
It's so early in the season though and I don't have much of a sample size to evaluate how the system is doing, but I always think it's a nice guideline that I can then pick which games to consider. Then I do further research before making a call. Stay tuned.