Pitching

[jup]

hmmm....

Burning the pen.. would be most of the time.. Being in the pen would be less appropriate as this pen has more depth than I've seen in a while.. and it shouldn't include two RH long guys....

I still see Quantrill as a starter until he isn't.. The prior injury history (as you alluded to the mechanics) has every chance of being revisited.. While he's young and strong.. and still (hopefully... as I don't have any direct personal interactions) coachable.. He has to learn.. He has the arm..now it's time to get the squishy shit between his ears to realize there's more than throwing hard that makes a pitcher.. although..throwing hard with a downward plane..doesn't hurt.. like when he's so effective..

I'll look forward to your Allen comments.. try desperately not to include quirky lefthander bias.. lol..

Thanks..

So he is lefthanded - news to me !!!!

Ha Ha Ha

can tell how up to speed I am

 

[CDAV45]

Could it be that part of Quantrill's underperformance this spring is due to the recognition of these mechanical flaws and attempting to address them, or is that reading a little too deep?

 

[Gson]

Could it be that part of Quantrill's underperformance this spring is due to the recognition of these mechanical flaws and attempting to address them, or is that reading a little too deep?

Generally speaking.. yes.. and it's not too deep..

 

[Criznit]

Wrong Forum Criznit!..

 

[jup]

So in analyzing spin rate stuff, one of the first thing you have to do is sort out the relationship between velocity and spin. Below are a couple different pitchers data from the ‘18 season

It is a linear regression of their spin rates versus velocity per pitch types (CB and 4s shown). One a starter one was a closer.

In doing this type analysis, you find spin rates tend to vary 35 to 55 rpm per mph. It gives you a basis to compare spin rates between pitches thrown faster and slower. And that is important as we would expect higher velocity pitches of the same type to have higher spin rates. So when looking for substance enhancement, you can’t just use spin rate alone, you have to "velocity adjust". Looking at velocity data for an entire game, or multiple games for a closer, you get a mean velocity for that window of time you have chosen. Then the regression analysis (for each individual pitcher and his pitch types) allows you to velocity adjust all the spin rate data to the mean. That is to say, knock out the velocity variation effects on the spin rates so you are comparing apples to apples.

 

[jup]

Not the greatest example but one I could find.

This is the closer from above over a two game stretch where he threw 60 some odd pitches. The pitches are just plotted linearly in the sequence they occurred against the normed spin rate.

Sticking with 4s pitch type for the moment (for explanation purposes), by normed I just mean they are adjusted to the mean velocity for the game by using the regression analysis for that pitcher for that pitch type. And then some std deviations lines are added to get an idea what might look “out of bounds”.

By plotting spin rates it becomes obvious that they follow a standard bell shaped distribution. So we would expect normal data to fall within certain bands. For those a little less mathematical, 1 std dev should include about 70% of the data and 2 std dev will include 95%. The idea is to see if anything looks outside what we would expect. And anything in the 2nd std, and definitely beyond the 2nd std would be suspect.

Now on the pitch type front, that is kind of novel and takes a lot more words.

 

[jup]

Looking more closely at a section in the ninth inning of the Texas game, we see some spikes that look out of bounds of the standard deviation stuff.

From reviewing the game situation, there were men on by the time the spikes occured and the situation wasn't looking good for a close game save.

What we see is our closer was kind of cruising along (red box area) within the normal distribution we would expect and then spikes in spin rate. In the first spike case we see the signature drop off (on subsequent pitches) as the "stickie" effect from application wears off and the spin rate tends back to the mean.

From studying stickie effects, it is clear that the effect on spin rates wears off over time. Which in this case is determined by # of pitches. So to boost a spin rate, within an inning, it takes a reapplication of stickie to the fingers. And depending on the type of stickie used, the effects on spin rate which will elevate it out of the general area we would expect to see it is 2 to 4 pitches usually.

So you tell me what we have here ???

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I'd be more worried about the inflated ERA's of our starters if I hadn't noticed the inflated batting averages of some of our minor leaguers. The desert in early March when pitchers are working on improving their weakest offerings is highly conducive to hitting, it seems. But once we start getting closer to Opening Day and pitchers gradually transition from a training mode to a "dress rehearsal" mode, the batting averages tend to fall. We're seeing that with Chang and Bradley, who started out like a house on fire and have since cooled off. It makes me suspect they are who we thought they were.

As long as Bieber, Plesac, Civale, McKenzie, and Quantrill are who we think they are this should be a competitive team. Whether this will end up being a "special" bullpen remains to be seen but we've seen some impressive pitching from the pen this spring.

I like Cesar Hernandez leading off and the meat of the order should be fine with Eddie, Hosey, and Franmil. Berto has lost a lot of weight, his shoulder is fine, and his right-center field stroke seems to be back. The question is the rest of the lineup. What will we get out of first base, shortstop, center field, and right field offensively? At least we have a lot of options. We don't need a lot of bad options, though, just a few good ones.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Looking more closely at a section in the ninth inning of the Texas game, we see some spikes that look out of bounds of the standard deviation stuff.

From reviewing the game situation, there were men on by the time the spikes occured and the situation wasn't looking good for a close game save.

What we see is our closer was kind of cruising along (red box area) within the normal distribution we would expect and then spikes in spin rate. In the first spike case we see the signature drop off (on subsequent pitches) as the "stickie" effect from application wears off and the spin rate tends back to the mean.

From studying stickie effects, it is clear that the effect on spin rates wears off over time. Which in this case is determined by # of pitches. So to boost a spin rate, within an inning, it takes a reapplication of stickie to the fingers. And depending on the type of stickie used, the effects on spin rate which will elevate it out of the general area we would expect to see it is 2 to 4 pitches usually.

So you tell me what we have here ???

this is absolutely fascinating.

I am curious about the dip in spin rates though. Is that something a pitcher/this pitcher is intentionally going for? Or is that caused by another factor?

 

[CDAV45]

I'd be more worried about the inflated ERA's of our starters if I hadn't noticed the inflated batting averages of some of our minor leaguers. The desert in early March when pitchers are working on improving their weakest offerings is highly conducive to hitting, it seems. But once we start getting closer to Opening Day and pitchers gradually transition from a training mode to a "dress rehearsal" mode, the batting averages tend to fall. We're seeing that with Chang and Bradley, who started out like a house on fire and have since cooled off. It makes me suspect they are who we thought they were.

As long as Bieber, Plesac, Civale, McKenzie, and Quantrill are who we think they are this should be a competitive team. Whether this will end up being a "special" bullpen remains to be seen but we've seen some impressive pitching from the pen this spring.

I like Cesar Hernandez leading off and the meat of the order should be fine with Eddie, Hosey, and Franmil. Berto has lost a lot of weight, his shoulder is fine, and his right-center field stroke seems to be back. The question is the rest of the lineup. What will we get out of first base, shortstop, center field, and right field offensively? At least we have a lot of options. We don't need a lot of bad options, though, just a few good ones.

I agree that there are a few questions, but I don't think Gimenez is one of them. I'd have him hitting in the 2 hole from the get go.

 

[jup]

this is absolutely fascinating.

I am curious about the dip in spin rates though. Is that something a pitcher/this pitcher is intentionally going for? Or is that caused by another factor?

On the low end, not as much has been studied, but there are a couple things I have looked at directly.

One, which is the most obvious - pitches slip more or less all the time with or without stickie. The adhesive/friction forces between the fingers and ball are always more or less depending on the ball, the pressure applied that initiates the friction/adhesion, and the pitch type. So you are talking variability pitch to pitch and that is why you look for stuff outside the “norm” while expecting a level of “bounce” within a given deviation off the mean. And what you see most often is a lot less data outside the lower end of +-1 std deviation than on the plus side.

The stickie itself plays a role based on where you want it for maximizing the spin rate. CB’s, you want the adhesion on the thumb, where as sliders/cutters and FB’s are on the fingers. But even the adhesion on the fingers varies. FB’s/SL you want it halfway between the center and the tip of the pad on both the pointer and middle fingers, whereas cutters you want the adhesion right where the nailbed ends on the thumb side of the fingers. So it is easy to see how the adhesion/friction on subsequent pitches varies and thus the spin rate for the same velocity.

So when you are looking at elevated spin rates across the board from a “stickie assist” standpoint, a pitch that has no “stickie assist” will look relatively low compared to all the ones that are elevated. Now that is a rather random effect as no pitcher out on the mound has the opportunity to try and control all the variables that come along with using the stickie, given they are under scrutiny the whole time. But there is another effect that some pitchers, maybe, only one I know of, that understands and can control (maybe) the “slip side” effects.

Some stickies dry out or scab over or … however you want to term it. I’ll describe the effect a couple different ways because one may ring true for someone and not to another.

If you have ever dipped your fingers in liquid wax and then let it cool. It is soft and plyable and doesn’t feel like a skin over the top of your fingers when it is warm, but when it cools. Or if you have ever been using super glue and got some on your fingers. You don’t really notice it when it is liquid but after it dries (if you are stuck to something) it feels like a plastic coating over your skin. At any rate hopefully that gives you an idea of what I am talking about.

The solvent that is used to make stickie applicable dries out over time. However, the residue when the solvent blows off is adhered to the fingers. The part that remains on the fingers hardens and when it hardens it no longer adheres to the ball, it slips. Additionally, if moisture is put on top of it, you get a hydroplaning effect. And that hydroplaning effect is controllable to a certain extent.

The stickie Clevinger used a few years back was really susceptible to the hardening effect. That is why you would see him rubbing his hand on his right hip pocket area like he was trying to wipe something off because he was - the hardened stickie. Since it was now not giving him the adhesion to increase his spin rate he would try to remove some of the dried out stuff before pulling on his strings to reapply. I was watching Plesac pitch the other day and noticed the same type of strange hand movement to the right hip pocket area that Clevinger used to have. I had to laugh – clearly Clevinger had passed along some of his secret sauce.

There is only one guy that I know of, that understands enough about spin effects to really use a downside play. He is “the man” in this area, because of the $$$’s and research he has poured into it dating back to ’11 or ’12 at least.

So the short answer to my long explanation to your question is – NO. Not anyone on the stickie side that I know of.

Nobody (except maybe the unmentionable) I know of, has the where-with-all to use a downside effect with stickie. Because it is very random when it would be available and is really very uncontrollable from the research I have done or assisted in. The game situation and the hitter play such a role in how stickie is used, and the pitcher has very little to no control of either of those, none the less when the solvent effect of the stickie will be blown off for it to really come into play. Now if you are a guy that tried for slip all the time, using a substance like petroleum jelly, that would be different. Because guys like that aren’t trying to increase their spin rate.

 

[CDAV45]

I remember watching Cookie pitch and seeing whatever he was using on his left forearm. He would go to it frequently and it wasn't hard to see.

 

[thestatman]

As long as Bieber, Plesac, Civale, McKenzie, and Quantrill are who we think they are this should be a competitive team.

The problem is...I don't think they are what we think they are. I think Logan Allen should be in this rotation, He has been a real pleasant surprise. I also don't understand why Scott Moss was given no opportunity to supplant Quantrill or TMac. Moss's numbers have been excellent over the past few seasons.

 

[sportscoach]

The problem is...I don't think they are what we think they are. I think Logan Allen should be in this rotation, He has been a real pleasant surprise. I also don't understand why Scott Moss was given no opportunity to supplant Quantrill or TMac. Moss's numbers have been excellent over the past few seasons.

We also have to remember we can only keep so many and Moss just lost out is all. He just may have not put in the same off season work as the other guys and lost out cause of that. We are going to end up using 8-10 starters/swing men by the end of the season anyways. I don't know if we will see a 200 inning pitcher this season and I don't expect any of the younger arms going above 120 so expect a bunch of arms to fill in those innings.

 

[Gson]

We also have to remember we can only keep so many and Moss just lost out is all. He just may have not put in the same off season work as the other guys and lost out cause of that. We are going to end up using 8-10 starters/swing men by the end of the season anyways. I don't know if we will see a 200 inning pitcher this season and I don't expect any of the younger arms going above 120 so expect a bunch of arms to fill in those innings.

..or maybe Scott Moss is the new Ka'ai Tom?... this act gets old..