Stocks to Watch Thread

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Investing isn't gambling.

That's simply an egregious comparison.

Buying companies you believe in and who have good growth prospects going forward is not a gamble. It's not speculation. There are a lot of factors to weigh when purchasing stake in a company you like.

I'm not saying that investing is equal to throwing away your money at the casino. I don't gamble. I do invest.

The difference is, in a casino, scenarios are solved, and there aren't scenarios where your odds are positive. In the market, the scenarios are unsolved and there are places where your odds are positive.

Right now, in this current situation, the amount of unknown is significantly higher than normal, so the similarity becomes closer than it typically is.

With the higher uncertainty becomes a greater opportunity for profit.

You also have people wanting liquidity, dropping the value of the asset below normal pricing, so there's opportunity for profit there outside of the uncertainty. But on the other hand, you can bet on the demand for liquidity increasing, and stay out of the market while prices continue to come down.

With the way a lot of us talk about investing, it can generate a ton of anxiety and FOMO that doesn't have to exist. People don't come on here to trumpet their losses.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

I may or may not be sitting on the sidelines. 1. Not sure I really know what the hell im doing still and 2. I still have a wedding to pay for

I should have been more specific. There’s nothing wrong with this. I’m mostly talking about the people who definitely want to invest, don’t need the money for short term liquidity needs, but are waiting for things to calm down to take advantage of these current prices

because that scenario is very unlikely to exist. Where there’s a calm in the general market, COVID looks to be under control, and there are still stock prices that look even close to this.

im also talking about people trying to time the bottom and people who are dead set on there will be better prices later so they sit on the sideline waiting for something better that may never come.

You have short term liquidity needs. Fuck if I know where the market will be by your wedding, you could lose a lot of money in the interim dependent on when you need the money. The funds I’ve invested have a very long horizon. If I need to ride this thing out, I have no problem doing it.

I promise I wasn’t trying to invoke FOMO (and I said in my post not to feel that way). I’m just saying I know a lot of people posted about wishing they could get in Tesla for a cheaper price when it was at 800. And then I asked if anyone got in when it was like 600 and no one answered which I assumed meant no. My whole point is in times of certainty and high investor sentiment, you don’t get discounts (Unless there are company specific reasons which you have to decide on a case by case basis their severity). If you want those prices they’ll usually come at times when you don’t want to buy. I’ve found my Best Buy’s have been times when it wrenched my fucking gut to buy. And some of my worst have been FOMO related greed.

anyone who might need the money in the next 3 years I definitely wouldn’t be as gung ho as I currently am in my investments.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

You also have people wanting liquidity, dropping the value of the asset below normal pricing, so there's opportunity for profit there outside of the uncertainty

To add on this a bit, there’s also a lot of “volatility controlled” financial products in the market. Funds that rebalance to More money markets, cash, or Treasuries when volatility is high and more equity when volatility is low. There has been a lot of fund mandated trading due to volatility under many different measures spiking so that these funds had mass exits from their equity positions. This works both ways though. It creates a ton of selling pressure when vol spikes but adds a lot of buying pressure when vol retreats after a spike. So you’ve also got momentum both ways here beyond just sentiment on a specific stock (on your point about things being baked into the price).

With the way a lot of us talk about investing, it can generate a ton of anxiety and FOMO that doesn't have to exist. People don't come on here to trumpet their losses.

That’s a great point so I’ll lead the charge here. I’m currently down 3,800 on my delta shares. Probably a week ago I was up like 500 or so. Now I’ve collected about 800 to offset that in call premium for positions that have since closed, but it’s still a 3K loss. That’s not fun. I don’t love staring at that (especially because I relaxed my position limit on a stock for delta by a small amount). I have no intention of selling and I’m not rattled by it. This is the kind of thing you need to be prepared to see with how wild the markets are. It’s not all fun and games in the short term

 

[KI4MVP]

I'm not saying that investing is equal to throwing away your money at the casino. I don't gamble. I do invest.

The difference is, in a casino, scenarios are solved, and there aren't scenarios where your odds are positive. In the market, the scenarios are unsolved and there are places where your odds are positive.

Right now, in this current situation, the amount of unknown is significantly higher than normal, so the similarity becomes closer than it typically is.

With the higher uncertainty becomes a greater opportunity for profit.

You also have people wanting liquidity, dropping the value of the asset below normal pricing, so there's opportunity for profit there outside of the uncertainty. But on the other hand, you can bet on the demand for liquidity increasing, and stay out of the market while prices continue to come down.

With the way a lot of us talk about investing, it can generate a ton of anxiety and FOMO that doesn't have to exist. People don't come on here to trumpet their losses.

There are at the poker table.

 

[bob2the2nd]

I’ve been going back and forth on this also. I had almost the exact same thinking as Cassity with Delta, Royal Carribbean, and Constellation brands. Would also like to buy Wells Fargo and say a Cedar Point. It’s a tough call. Even if you dive in with 10k, and you return say 30% in 2 years you are up 3k which isn’t life changing money. I get it, it’s better than sitting in cash and have to risk a lot to get a lot. But unless you are throwing around big dollars it’s hard for me to get around the gain piece. I’ve thought about wiping out my student loans and taking my 6% (interest rate) “return”. Still debating. Especially since I already max a 401k and Roth IRA.

Gather round the camp fire ladies and gentlemen and let me tell you a story. It was early spring of 09. I had just got my first real job out of college in November. I was living with some friends paying cheap rent. I was for the first time in my life saving money, while paying off my student debt. I had 2k sitting in my bank account looking to jump in a market that had bottomed out. All the news stories were about Ford and GM talking about declaring bankruptcy. Being the smartest person in my small bedroom (only person). I figured if i was willing to lose every last cent (because thats what might happen) how much was i okay with losing. I picked 500 dollars.

I put 300 on GM at 5 dollars a share (or something like that), and 200 dollars on ford at $2.50 a share. After a week it was clear GM was fucked, i pulled out what i could (like 100 dollars), and put the rest into ford at $1/share.

4 months later ford was at $10/share. I made right at $3000. I risk everything i was comfortable with and won. I could have turned $2000 into $20000, but was so happy to not lose that 500 dollars. I didnt personally invest again till last month.

What did i do with the money. I paid off my student debt. If you have the money just pay off your damn debt.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Gather round the camp fire ladies and gentlemen and let me tell you a story. It was early spring of 09. I had just got my first real job out of college in November. I was living with some friends paying cheap rent. I was for the first time in my life saving money, while paying off my student debt. I had 2k sitting in my bank account looking to jump in a market that had bottomed out. All the news stories were about Ford and GM talking about declaring bankruptcy. Being the smartest person in my small bedroom (only person). I figured if i was willing to lose every last cent (because thats what might happen) how much was i okay with losing. I picked 500 dollars.

I put 300 on GM at 5 dollars a share (or something like that), and 200 dollars on ford at $2.50 a share. After a week it was clear GM was fucked, i pulled out what i could (like 100 dollars), and put the rest into ford at $1/share.

4 months later ford was at $10/share. I made right at $3000. I risk everything i was comfortable with and won. I could have turned $2000 into $20000, but was so happy to not lose that 500 dollars. I didnt personally invest again till last month.

What did i do with the money. I paid off my student debt. If you have the money just pay off your damn debt.

But if you wouldn’t have invested you wouldn’t have had 4 times the capital to pay off the loans

and you also ended up missing the longest bull market in history where even investing in the broad market would have yielded a 300% return

it sounds like you’re extremely risk averse and that’s fine. Everyone has their own risk tolerance. But for all but the most risk averse people I don’t think your takeaway is applicable

 

[BMAN]

So has anyone picked up anything lately?

 

[bob2the2nd]

So has anyone picked up anything lately?

United airlines, yesterday.

 

[BMAN]

United airlines, yesterday.

I may pick up some Delta.

 

[bob2the2nd]

I may pick up some Delta.

its the only thing i have a good recommendation for right now.

for high risk I jumped in at carnival at 8 dollars last week, and while its now up to 12 i dont know how high the ceiling is (
hoping for 20-25). I have already mentioned I have royal caribbean cruse as well.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

After pulling nearly all my assets out of the market, I bought back into AMD, Tesla and Google.

I have no advice for anyone else--just that's what I've done. I haven't put my retirement accounts back into the market yet. I'm not sure what I'm waiting for.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Alright here’s the part where I need to avoid greed and try to take emotion out of decisions

Everyone shot up like a rocket after hours. I’m getting some FOMO here. I’m currently 67% equities 33% cash and now I’m wondering if I held back a little too much

but deploying more now I think would be an emotional decision. Also that 33% isn’t just what’s in the brokerage, it’s total amount I have in bank/brokerages. So I figure I should keep 5-10% out of equities just to have some funds out for security.

but fuck when I see everything mooning I have the exact opposite reaction of what’s likely the logical play of “maybe I should review to see if I should scale down some positions/hedge while puts will be cheaper”

this has been a stressful trading month. A quick spike in cases upon reopening and I think the floor could absolutely fall out. A second shut down in a quick time frame is like the disaster scenario. But I’m bullish on the virus which I think is what has led me to be so bullish on stocks

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

@KI4MVP oil has absolutely cratered to the point that the oversupply is so extensive that Oil prices in Canada are now negative. people are literally being paid to take oil

 

[KI4MVP]

@KI4MVP oil has absolutely cratered to the point that the oversupply is so extensive that Oil prices in Canada are now negative. people are literally being paid to take oil

maybe they will finally stop drilling?

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

maybe they will finally stop drilling?

There’s some seriously bearish sentiment on the future of oil right now with defaults already starting and banks seizing assets. From what I’ve read starting and stopping drilling is an extremely expensive endeavor so a lot of these companies are willing to sell at a massive loss to try to weather the storm because of how expensive it is to stop drilling