Stocks to Watch Thread

[bob2the2nd]

@RonG

i didnt watch the video but i would expect it says something of the sort basically if you can take 80% of the profits of being "near bottom" its a lot less risky than trying to actually hit bottom and score 100% of the profits. Especially when you have no idea where bottom is.

I put in about 80% of everything I am willing to risk over the last month. I am saving 20% for summer/fall if everything takes a huge dive.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Strongly considering hugely out of the money long term call options on the banks as kind of a YOLO play

Wells Fargo June 2021 call options with a 47.5 strike are $50 a contract (one contract is on 100 shares of stock)

my strategy here would basically be to recoup costs on a a future spike. So if WFC spiked to say 33 I would look and see if I can sell a 52.5 or 55 strike call at the same date for $50 to recoup costs and then let that spread ride and hope for a bank surge But have no net amount at risk

downside would be no interim spike and can’t recoup costs, but I’m only looking at small stakes here as a potential 5-10 times return if banks get back to all time highs while tying up a small amount of capital

 

[Triplethreat]

i didnt watch the video but i would expect it says something of the sort basically if you can take 80% of the profits of being "near bottom" its a lot less risky than trying to actually hit bottom and score 100% of the profits. Especially when you have no idea where bottom is.

I put in about 80% of everything I am willing to risk over the last month. I am saving 20% for summer/fall if everything takes a huge dive.

No video, just an article with statistics pointing out that buying on the way up long term produces stronger returns that trying to time the bottom.

Pretty much exactly what you said.

 

[Triplethreat]

I mean..... what a day.

 

[RonG]

@RonG

That's great, just not how i choose to invest in the stock market, I look for home runs short term gains 6 months to a year. There are a lot of stocks that fit what I am looking for right now, just holding off a little longer. My real investments are multi family properties and that is where the bulk of my capital goes.

 

[KI4MVP]

Who's going to buy BRK.A while it's down? Only $273,957 per share today. Well off of its 52 week high of $347,400 per share.

 

[Triplethreat]

Fitbit is an absolute pass for me. The same thing can be replicated for much cheaper and most smart watches now track steps making their core product obsolete. They also don't really compete in the smart watch market compared to apple, samsung, garmin, and motorola. I look at it the same as I look at GoPro. Sinking.

The stocks I am currently interested in and am in the process of doing DD on are the following:

1) Tencent
2) Alibaba
3) Shopify
4) Nakd
5) Intel

I will post more as I get close to entering. I have made about 5k day trading Nakd (on merger news) but now that the merger has been announced for October it has dropped like a rock. I'm trying to figure out if now is a good time to enter and hold.

Shopify has 10xed since this post.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

I’ve grown slightly more bearish short term. I think there’s some serious headwinds coming in the next few months and we’ve already gotten an ‘opening back up’ rally

still heavily in the market, but I’ve taken some gains, written some covered calls, and opened some short positions and bought Some puts on companies I hate like $HOG

at 4/20 I was 33.3% cash, 66.7% equity
5/3: 37.5% cash 62.5% equity
5/6: 39.5% cash 60.5% equity

29.7% of my equities are eligible to be called away through covered calls, but that’s misleading because 75% of that is from a SPY covered call write in my IRA that I’m not going to let get called away. If it’s ITM near expiry I’ll just roll it to a later date and higher strike in a net 0 transaction

got dumb lucky today. Bought back my 5/8 SPY call around 2PM and wrote a new one for 5/22. Then the market tanked and that call lost a whopping 25% of its value in an hour. Also bought back my $LNC Covered call right before close thinking they would impress on earnings. Went up 12% AH. Can’t wait to write the exact same June call tomorrow for 5 times the price of what I bought back. GUH

Banks are a lead weight in my portfolio currently along with $DAL. Don’t give a shit about the banks, no problem adding more to $JPM and just holding, but I’ll probably look to start reducing DAL slightly. I’ve written like 5 fucking covered calls on it but this piece of shit just refuses to get called away lol

relatively proud of myself for having minimal FOMO and trying to remain emotionally calm. I fucked up TWTR. I had a good trade and I FOMO’d into more AH on FB’s big beat. Then next morning Twitter’s CEO GUH’d all over himself and my dumbass FOMO killed a good trade. Oh well have to learn from it and move forward

 

[Triplethreat]

Penn just hit 600% off it’s low of $4.00 March 18....

Still so much upside to go there too with legalized sports gambling on the horizon. If you went all in you’re probably one rich mother fucker by the time this all ends.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

If you went all in you’re probably one rich mother fucker by the time this all ends.

And if I went all in on call options ahead of BYND earnings I would have made millions of dollars
And if I went all in on call options ahead of Wal Mart’s earnings (which was a HEAVILY crowded trade) I would lose my entire account

what you’re describing is gambling not investing. Which is fine If you would acknowledge the downside of it, but from your posts you are only looking at one potential path and using new era theories to justify this optimism

 

[Triplethreat]

And if I went all in on call options ahead of BYND earnings I would have made millions of dollars
And if I went all in on call options ahead of Wal Mart’s earnings (which was a HEAVILY crowded trade) I would lose my entire account

what you’re describing is gambling not investing. Which is fine If you would acknowledge the downside of it, but from your posts you are only looking at one potential path and using new era theories to justify this optimism

I didn’t really see it as gambling at all.

There was a massive sell off of Casino stocks once news got out of them shutting down, and I mean MASSIVE sell off.

i saw it as more of a value opportunity than a risk personally. We’re the casinos really ever at risk of going out of business completely? Not really.

And by all in, I don’t even mean dumping everything into it, just a percentage of your portfolio. If you had 10,000 dollars to play with you’re probably looking at over 100,000 upside once it’s all said and done.

 

[bigking777]

Going out of business is a completely different animal than declaring bankruptcy.

 

[Triplethreat]

Going out of business is a completely different animal than declaring bankruptcy.

And yet they still weren’t really ever at risk of going bankrupt.

It was a major value buying opportunity.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

And yet they still weren’t really ever at risk of going bankrupt.

It was a major value buying opportunity.

In general I think there is survivorship bias when looking at previous recessions and the great returns one would get if they had just pulled the trigger on the distressed securities

but the problem is the distressed securities that didn’t make it aren’t going to have a ticker. If you bought the dip on Lehman you were fucked. People buying the dip on Washington mutual. It took almost 17 years for the airlines to recover to the pre 9/11 aggregate level

many banks and insurance companies have never gotten back to all time highs after 2008

It’s mostly a meme stock now, but GE used to be an absolute juggernaut often being the highest valued company in the world. Many died on that buy the dip hill

compared to these companies PENN is an absolute gnat. These were giant companies and I would have to imagine (wasn’t investing back then) that people made many of the same arguments of ‘wel it’s not like they’re going bankrupt’

What are your reasons for thinking Penn could not go bankrupt but an absolute behemoth like Lehman can?

I think some investors mindset is just whatever goes down will come back up. Looking at the top stock holdings for robinhood accounts (all retail investors) shows that people have drilled into their brain buy the dip no matter the fundamentals and target the most distressed securities.

Robintrack

Robintrack keeps track of how many Robinhood users hold a particular stock over time. It generates charts showing the relationship between price and popularity, and compiles some lists using the data.

robintrack.net

this is basically just a list of the most distressed securities (with some actually good companies who were hit hard). I’ll tell you as someone bag holding DAL, wish I would have taken that value play and dumped more into AAPL, MSFT, GOOG.

 

[Triplethreat]

In general I think there is survivorship bias when looking at previous recessions and the great returns one would get if they had just pulled the trigger on the distressed securities

but the problem is the distressed securities that didn’t make it aren’t going to have a ticker. If you bought the dip on Lehman you were fucked. People buying the dip on Washington mutual. It took almost 17 years for the airlines to recover to the pre 9/11 aggregate level

many banks and insurance companies have never gotten back to all time highs after 2008

It’s mostly a meme stock now, but GE used to be an absolute juggernaut often being the highest valued company in the world. Many died on that buy the dip hill

compared to these companies PENN is an absolute gnat. These were giant companies and I would have to imagine (wasn’t investing back then) that people made many of the same arguments of ‘wel it’s not like they’re going bankrupt’

What are your reasons for thinking Penn could not go bankrupt but an absolute behemoth like Lehman can?

I think some investors mindset is just whatever goes down will come back up. Looking at the top stock holdings for robinhood accounts (all retail investors) shows that people have drilled into their brain buy the dip no matter the fundamentals and target the most distressed securities.

Robintrack

Robintrack keeps track of how many Robinhood users hold a particular stock over time. It generates charts showing the relationship between price and popularity, and compiles some lists using the data.

robintrack.net

this is basically just a list of the most distressed securities (with some actually good companies who were hit hard). I’ll tell you as someone bag holding DAL, wish I would have taken that value play and dumped more into AAPL, MSFT, GOOG.

Well for one the amount of support the government has had for a lot of our industries. I think Vegas is a pretty important part of our economy.

On top of that, the virus was the leading charge of this economic pullback, and I was pretty positive in no way shape or form would our major industries be allowed to fall with such a low death rate.