The 2023-2024 Off-Season Thread

[godfather]

My problem with this is that it's wishful thinking.

I believe coaches can develop and change/improve but I don't think you can ask a coach to drastically change his core philosophies mid-stream. This guy has been trying to get this team to perfect his preferred pace and approach to the defensive side of the floor for 3 seasons, and what we just saw this season was the pinnacle of that, resulting in the best statistical defense which limited opponents opportunities and baited them into shooting lower percentage shots the most.

This was the Memphis Grizzlies in JBB's full season there after replacing Fizdale the year before...

View attachment 15586

Man... look at these defensive advanced metrics resulting in 9th rated defense but at the expense of being 30th in pace and having the 27th rated offense

View attachment 15590

They were 30th in FG and FG Att while being able to hang their hat on opponents being dead last on both categories. This team was 33-49 but had Mike Conley starting every game and getting 2.5k mins, Marc Gasol starting 53 games and Valunciunas starting the rest of them after the Gasol trade. Rookie Jaren Jackson starting every game he played and a platoon of wing guys (Garrett Temple, SloMo Kyle Anderson, 3rd guard Shelvin Mack)...

But I really want to bring to your attention this curious case of Justin Holiday.

A 29 year old 3-D guy who was playing for a contract as the 2 year deal he signed in Chicago was expiring. He spent the first 38 games in Chicago and started everyone of them playing 35 mins a game as the floor spacing 3 for Fred Hoiberg between Wendell Carter Jr at the 5, Lauri at the 4 and Lavine and Kriss Dunn as the guards.

Holiday was shooting 7+ 3PA per game and hitting them nearly 3 each game at 36% (97 - 270). Suddenly after the trade, not only did his attempts DRY up (7.1 to 4.4) in a much slower paced offense where ball control and limiting opponents FGA's were the intent... but his percentage dropped which is counterintuitive to less attempts for the same player in a contract season who was on pace to a career year in both 3pA and 3pM up until the trade.

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View attachment 15587

His percentage and attempts fell off for a team trying to make the playoffs, in the name of playing ball control limit opponents attempts defense first basketball.

Also, look at how his percentage jumped right back up the next season in a reserve role but for 4th in the East Indiana where he led the team in attempts by nearly 50 more than 2nd place gunner McDermott (331 v 294) and makes (134 v 123) and finished only second in percentage behind McDermott (435 v 405)

View attachment 15592

He did this bounce back for a coach in Nate McMillan who has never been confused with offensive genius but who navigated those Pacers to 19th rated offense and 6th rated defense while not totally screwing the pooch on pace (21st).

An extreme that we have to consider not just a coincidence, or a "player driven" thing (as none of our Cavs played for his Memphis team) but a scheme and philosophy borne out on multiple groups as his style has taken root over the course of season(s).

A preference and style of play that JBB has always had and which essentially got him his contract extension in the first place, taking a team that Beiline had pushing pace and space for 60+ games with terrible results on the defensive side...

View attachment 15589

And turning them into a "statistical" defensive metric darling while once again sacrificing offensive pace and space (though using the brilliance of Mitchell and Garland in HPNR to garner a 9th offensive rating even at that league last 30th pace...

View attachment 15591

My TLDR
We are asking a coach to coach against all he has ever shown to get results in this league. With a history of taking the air out of the ball and scheming both sides of the floor to try to limit opponent scoring opportunities, we're now asking him to entirely reprogram his approach to how he sees the game of basketball in order to play more to the strengths of our talented young players.

I believe JBB coached teams are destined for the lowest percentile of pace by design and preference and his schemes and rotations will always trend that way without taking some time to reprogram, observe and grow under a more balanced coach/approach alas Mike Brown under Kerr.

Great post, and I agree.

A leopard can't just change its spots. This is who JBB is. It's not changing, we got to at least address better spacing on the court.

 

[godfather]

JBB asks and expects a lot out of his rotation defensively. He will never sacrifice more offense, for less defense. Won't happen. This is why Love was finding his way out of the rotation, and he wanted to go towards Wade. Because he prefers guys that defend first.

But to JBB's horror, he realized Wade is pretty bad. And not a good enough overall player to justify playing him so much.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

I think a lot of people aren't realizing how important next year is. It's practically make or break because next off season you have to extend Mitchell or trade him if he's unwilling. That makes next year make or break. Bad position to be in

I would challenge you to move past the “shock and awe” of this conjecture to put a little more meat on this take.

I think I’ve seen you say this double digit times since our season ended. Cool. What makes this community a notch better than the competition is we all push each other to flesh out this kind of dessert only plate and put some statistical or historical substance on the “take plate” as well.

What you got?

Make this case for us

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Great post, and I agree.

A leopard can't just change its spots. This is who JBB is. It's not changing, we got to at least address better spacing on the court.

Justin Holiday is my fear of giving him better space and expecting better results.

The guy was trying to shoot his way into a multi year deal and was on his way to that in Chicago as their designated gunner, he got to Memphis with JBB controlling the clipboard and he became gun shy and became, at best, average or under average for his position as a floor spacer. The very next season, he went right back to the trajectory he was on in Chicago under a different coach with better pace.

I’m game for JBB proofing the roster as much as possible, but I can’t stress enough that his preferred pace and style will discourage even the most aggressive shooters from taking them freely (compromising his core defensive philosophy) and it’s possible that his defensive demands are also taking the air out of the ball for shooters on the other side as well.

 

[Rich]

I don't know how people watch these playoffs and come away feeling great about Mobley/Allen longterm.

No one else is trying to make something like that work. No one.

It's hard to find a team playing big minutes to even ONE big man who can't shoot outside of 10 feet, let alone two.


Davis+Vanerbilt is about as bad as you wanna get when it comes to floor spacing in this day and age, and Vanderbilt only plays 15 minutes a night.

The Cavs are trying to be the one team who makes this thing work and..it's not gonna. I'm about as convinced of this as I can be.

I wanna follow up on this because it's even more stark than I initially said.

The two teams about to make the FInals have almost given up entirely on playing two traditional big men together at all. FOrget the 2nd big man being a floor spacer which became the norm about 20 years ago.

The Nuggets "4 man" is Michael Porter Jr who doesn't play with an ounce of toughness in his body and is the smallest 6'10 player you've ever watched in your life.

The Heat play Kevin Love about 10 minutes a night, and the rest of the night someone like Caleb Martin is the guy technically playing power forward. Or they slide Jimmy into that role.


And here we are trying to roll back the clock and play two 7 footers whose games are entirely within 5 feet of the rim.

 

[Rich]

I think this is the wrong mindset. Mobley can’t hang with Embiid and Jokic consistently to only need a backup big for help in those matchups. He also currently can’t hang with Mitch Rob, and I can’t see him doing much better against Brook Lopez, Bam, Robert Williams, Poetl, over a 7 game series. The team and Evan need someone there full time to take those minutes against all the physical centers in the league, not just the high scoring ones. Our rebounding was embarrassing with both against the Knicks, imagine if we had Mobley playing C full time with only shooters …. Ooof.

Rotating a 3rd big who can shoot and rebound will help JA and Mobley tremendously. Allowing Okoro to play within his current role is best case for all parties. Add a shooter to rotate in and allow Okoro to keep working on his shooting. Dude is still young as hell.


I was for trading Allen after the playoff loss but I’ve come around to realizing he is still an important piece to the puzzle. The core is talented and still developing. Surround them all with shooting and size and I think we see a much better team next year.

You just watched JA absolutely get rickrolled by MItchell Robinson over 5 games, and the conclusion everyone keeps coming to is "Mobley can't hang with guys like Mitchell Robinson, so we need to keep JA."

It does puzzle me quite a bit, I must admit.

I get the initial reaction that Mobley can't do it, but I get lost on the second part of the equation so many keep repeating.

You just saw JA absolutely fail at it.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

I wanna follow up on this because it's even more stark than I initially said.

The two teams about to make the FInals have almost given up entirely on playing two traditional big men together at all. FOrget the 2nd big man being a floor spacer which became the norm about 20 years ago.

The Nuggets "4 man" is Michael Porter Jr who doesn't play with an ounce of toughness in his body and is the smallest 6'10 player you've ever watched in your life.

The Heat play Kevin Love about 10 minutes a night, and the rest of the night someone like Caleb Martin is the guy technically playing power forward. Or they slide Jimmy into that role.


And here we are trying to roll back the clock and play two 7 footers whose games are entirely within 5 feet of the rim.

Both teams have platoons of bigs. 3 bigs with two of them high post operated and dunker spot only guy and the 3rd being a floor spacer.

Heat have Adebayo (high post) and Zeller (dunker) with Love spacing as a 3 man rotation

Nuggets have Jokic (high post and reliable outside) and Gordon (true 4 in the traditiinal 5man dunker spot because of Jokics versatility) with MPJ spacing

Cavs then would be Mobley (high post closer to Adebayo on offense than Jokic) Allen (dunker spot needing Mobley to develop more diversity on offense) and the 3rd big we would need to be a reliable floor spacer who defenses would fear or have to respect from range consistently

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

My problem with this is that it's wishful thinking.

I believe coaches can develop and change/improve but I don't think you can ask a coach to drastically change his core philosophies mid-stream. This guy has been trying to get this team to perfect his preferred pace and approach to the defensive side of the floor for 3 seasons, and what we just saw this season was the pinnacle of that, resulting in the best statistical defense which limited opponents opportunities and baited them into shooting lower percentage shots the most.

This was the Memphis Grizzlies in JBB's full season there after replacing Fizdale the year before...

View attachment 15586

Man... look at these defensive advanced metrics resulting in 9th rated defense but at the expense of being 30th in pace and having the 27th rated offense

View attachment 15590

They were 30th in FG and FG Att while being able to hang their hat on opponents being dead last on both categories. This team was 33-49 but had Mike Conley starting every game and getting 2.5k mins, Marc Gasol starting 53 games and Valunciunas starting the rest of them after the Gasol trade. Rookie Jaren Jackson starting every game he played and a platoon of wing guys (Garrett Temple, SloMo Kyle Anderson, 3rd guard Shelvin Mack)...

But I really want to bring to your attention this curious case of Justin Holiday.

A 29 year old 3-D guy who was playing for a contract as the 2 year deal he signed in Chicago was expiring. He spent the first 38 games in Chicago and started everyone of them playing 35 mins a game as the floor spacing 3 for Fred Hoiberg between Wendell Carter Jr at the 5, Lauri at the 4 and Lavine and Kriss Dunn as the guards.

Holiday was shooting 7+ 3PA per game and hitting them nearly 3 each game at 36% (97 - 270). Suddenly after the trade, not only did his attempts DRY up (7.1 to 4.4) in a much slower paced offense where ball control and limiting opponents FGA's were the intent... but his percentage dropped which is counterintuitive to less attempts for the same player in a contract season who was on pace to a career year in both 3pA and 3pM up until the trade.

View attachment 15588

View attachment 15587

His percentage and attempts fell off for a team trying to make the playoffs, in the name of playing ball control limit opponents attempts defense first basketball.

Also, look at how his percentage jumped right back up the next season in a reserve role but for 4th in the East Indiana where he led the team in attempts by nearly 50 more than 2nd place gunner McDermott (331 v 294) and makes (134 v 123) and finished only second in percentage behind McDermott (435 v 405)

View attachment 15592

He did this bounce back for a coach in Nate McMillan who has never been confused with offensive genius but who navigated those Pacers to 19th rated offense and 6th rated defense while not totally screwing the pooch on pace (21st).

An extreme that we have to consider not just a coincidence, or a "player driven" thing (as none of our Cavs played for his Memphis team) but a scheme and philosophy borne out on multiple groups as his style has taken root over the course of season(s).

A preference and style of play that JBB has always had and which essentially got him his contract extension in the first place, taking a team that Beiline had pushing pace and space for 60+ games with terrible results on the defensive side...

View attachment 15589

And turning them into a "statistical" defensive metric darling while once again sacrificing offensive pace and space (though using the brilliance of Mitchell and Garland in HPNR to garner a 9th offensive rating even at that league last 30th pace...

View attachment 15591

My TLDR
We are asking a coach to coach against all he has ever shown to get results in this league. With a history of taking the air out of the ball and scheming both sides of the floor to try to limit opponent scoring opportunities, we're now asking him to entirely reprogram his approach to how he sees the game of basketball in order to play more to the strengths of our talented young players.

I believe JBB coached teams are destined for the lowest percentile of pace by design and preference and his schemes and rotations will always trend that way without taking some time to reprogram, observe and grow under a more balanced coach/approach alas Mike Brown under Kerr.

Pretty amazing stuff here RC. Do you know if JBB’s system is influenced much by his dad? Would just be interesting to see a comparison since his dad coached in an era where basically everyone played two more traditional bigs that didn’t shoot outside of the paint much.

 

[Ohioplayer00]

We absolutely need shooting and the playoffs have shown how important that is. However, we should not be jumping the gun on how we get that shooting. Just having space isnt enough if it costs what we already have to get it. Thats how you end up as ATL.

Our biggest strength is our interior defense and our effective shot generation. The core of that is the big 4. We need to improve our pieces around that, but unless a substantial upgrade is available, it doesn't make sense to trade any of them. And I dont expect to see Giannis walking through that door.

I totally agree and that’s why I look at the option of trade packages involving Okoro, Cedi and Wade to create cap space so we can venture into the FA waters to get that needed shooter!

 

[CanadaEh]

You just watched JA absolutely get rickrolled by MItchell Robinson over 5 games, and the conclusion everyone keeps coming to is "Mobley can't hang with guys like Mitchell Robinson, so we need to keep JA."

It does puzzle me quite a bit, I must admit.

I get the initial reaction that Mobley can't do it, but I get lost on the second part of the equation so many keep repeating.

You just saw JA absolutely fail at it.

Part of my thought process is JA was put in an awful position scheme wise and had to play a crazy amount of minutes because there was no one else to play. Even still, if the guy is not JA, I believe you need another big body playing C regardless, not just another “backup big” while Mobley plays full time C. That’s a recipe for the kid to get broken down fast. So why go after another big body dude to replace JA when we can try and support him/the rest of the team.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

I’m coming to find that we think a hell of a lot alike @bob2the2nd and I’m cool with that.

While I was researching for that post, I explored Bernie’s teams and found that for that era, he always preferred a 4 or 5 big platoon with the most egregious being Washington with Webber, Juwan Howard, Ben Wallace, Terry Davis and a Harvey Grant all getting minutes ahead of floor spacing shooters who couldn’t crack his rotation like Tim Legler and Chris Whitney and the lone exception being super vet Tracey Murray who had his worst statistical shooting year as a pro 32% on only 2.9 per game compared to the previous season of twice as many attempts at 40% makes

His wings had their minutes fluctuate and shot at career worst rates while his bigs logged heavy minutes, to be concise.

How do you have a 42-40 team with 5 bigs in the rotation and can’t find time for an all time great shooter like Legler or one of the historical 3-d spacers like career 38% shooter Tracy Murray having one of his worst years shooting from 3 as the only shooter in your active rotation.

Good call Bob. I left that out to keep my already long ass post shorter

 

[Rich]

Both teams have platoons of bigs. 3 bigs with two of them high post operated and dunker spot only guy and the 3rd being a floor spacer.

Heat have Adebayo (high post) and Zeller (dunker) with Love spacing as a 3 man rotation

Nuggets have Jokic (high post and reliable outside) and Gordon (true 4 in the traditiinal 5man dunker spot because of Jokics versatility) with MPJ spacing

Cavs then would be Mobley (high post closer to Adebayo on offense than Jokic) Allen (dunker spot needing Mobley to develop more diversity on offense) and the 3rd big we would need to be a reliable floor spacer who defenses would fear or have to respect from range consistently

Here's the issue, @rch.

Let's use the Heat. When the Heat get to closing time, they aren't playing Zeller next to Bam. They aren't playing Love next to Bam, either.

They're playing Caleb Martin. Or they're playing Kyle Lowry and it's Jimmy Butler as the 4.


Then you look at the Nuggets. Jokic can shoot from outside, and honestly, if left wide open, he's deadly.

Gordon, while not a great shooter, is still a guy who takes a few a game and makes them about as well as Dean Wade.

Won't even get into Porter Jr. as he's big only in height. HIs whole game takes place out of the paint on both ends of the floor.


The Cavs, as long as Allen is on the team, are going to be committed to playing Allen and Mobley 25-30 minutes a night together on the floor, and closing with both. That's just how its gonna be.

Miami closes with only one guy who isn't a threat from outside of 15 feet. Denver closes with zero and honestly Denver plays zero.


That's not gonna be the case here.

We are going to be a fighting an uphill battle offensively so long as we continue with this lineup and approach.


Mobley is Adebayo, hopefully. That's what I'm leaning towards anyway as a future comp.

The problem is Allen is Zeller, albeit more talented.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Here's the issue, @rch.

Let's use the Heat. When the Heat get to closing time, they aren't playing Zeller next to Bam. They aren't playing Love next to Bam, either.

They're playing Caleb Martin. Or they're playing Kyle Lowry and it's Jimmy Butler as the 4.


Then you look at the Nuggets. Jokic can shoot from outside, and honestly, if left wide open, he's deadly.

Gordon, while not a great shooter, is still a guy who takes a few a game and makes them about as well as Dean Wade.

Won't even get into Porter Jr. as he's big only in height. HIs whole game takes place out of the paint on both ends of the floor.


The Cavs, as long as Allen is on the team, are going to be committed to playing Allen and Mobley 25-30 minutes a night together on the floor, and closing with both. That's just how its gonna be.

Miami closes with only one guy who isn't a threat from outside of 15 feet. Denver closes with zero and honestly Denver plays zero.


That's not gonna be the case here.

We are going to be a fighting an uphill battle offensively so long as we continue with this lineup and approach.


Mobley is Adebayo, hopefully.

The problem is Allen is Zeller, albeit more talented.

I agree with what you’re saying with the variable being our head coach being able to recognize when to pair Allen and Mobley and when to floor space with either of them with another big or a wing capable of guarding 4’s and shooting to keep the floor open.

Allen, to me, looks to be best at 20-25 mins max like Atkinson was using him even when he started.

Using him for more marginalizes his effectiveness and we need a coach who understands that and understands how essential that 3rd big even if a defensive liability (like MPJ or Love) would be to getting max production from him in 10-12 mins per half

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

@Rich

I see your point if we are ready to say Mobley at best will be a high post hub like Bam (no outside shot and using his guard like handle to triple threat and attack opposing defenses from free throw line in on half court, and bringing the ball up initiating off rebounds/transition)

I personally feel that would be a mismanagement of his development if that’s where his game settles.

Bams first two years in the league he was part of a 3 big platoon with Hassan Whiteside and Kelly Olynk. They all three averaged 23 mpg with Kelly O being the floor spacer with 4 3pt ApG at 36%.

That 3rd year when he took over those minutes from Whiteside and jumped to 34mpg, he had 3-4 floor spacing bigs next to him in Crowder 7 3apg at 44%, Olynk again, Myers Leonard and James Johnson all shooting more than 2 per game and 35%+ (Myers shot 41%!!!)

I think if you take Allen out of rotations with Mobley, you’re setting the bar for his offensive development to Bam at best.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I think a lot of people aren't realizing how important next year is. It's practically make or break because next off season you have to extend Mitchell or trade him if he's unwilling. That makes next year make or break. Bad position to be in

No you don't. You can always choose to run it back one more time and hope for a better result.