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Tondo's 2023 Top 100 Guardians prospects

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I am a bit worried about what Brayan can do with the bat when he hits it. I just don't feel he is doing a ton of damage. Just how much is his BABIP a concern, especially if he doesn't have a ton of power? His approach and contact levels did take a huge step forward, so this is what's left. And I'm a big Rocchio fan for similar reasons. His "feel for contact" is certainly showing in results.

Williams has the stuff and I don't see his AA as worrying because this is his first pro exposure and he has got to be working on refining stuff. Is he ready today? Nope but he's only a few steps from it. Espino could probably pitch today and be fine and thankfully his arm is fine, a non pitching injury. Like any pitcher who throws gas there is injury concern but he's already shown what he can do. Bibee I see as somewhat high floor low ceiling relative to the others but it was a great season and a MOR arm is very valuable. It's a rare case where you get his profile yielding a Bieber but he may end up being the best of the 3...
 
Pretty sure Espino's injury went from leg to shoulder during 2022. That's a bit concerning. He's the best talent if healthy.

Rocchio hit 18 HRs last year and had a solid 160ish ISO, over 180 last year.
 
Williams pitched in AA as a 22 yr old. K'd nearly 11/9IP and gave up fewer than 6 hits in 9IP. He walked a little over 3 per 9IP so he could stand to real that in a little. His ERA was 2.31. FIP and xFIP aren't worth a damn in his case and I don't have a lot of confidence in those stats anyway. Take Quantrill for instance. His FIP and xFIP numbers never allow for his performance, yet he's been consistent for 3 yrs running now. There are endless articles describing in detail why those are flawed stats and to use the one stat that isn't screaming top prospect seems silly to me. Sometimes you just have to recognize the talent and no position player we have is as talented in their given positions as Williams is in his from what I can tell. That doesn't mean I don't like Rocchio or Valera because I do. Just not nearly as much as the 3 SP prospects that are ridiculously talented.
 
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KluberSociety said:
I am a bit worried about what Brayan can do with the bat when he hits it.
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This past year, at age 21 in AA, Rocchio had 432 plate appearances and OPS'd .780 with 13 home runs and 81 strikeouts.

(the year before, at age 20, he OPS'd .865 at Akron in 203 plate appearances)

In 2014, at age 20 in AA, Lindor had 387 plate appearances and OPS'd .741 with 6 home runs and 61 strikeouts.

I still think people are underrating Rocchio. I'm not saying his power is going to develop the way Lindor's did, but I think he's as close to "can't miss" as prospects get. He's likely at least an average starting shortstop in the major leagues.
 
Out of the Rafters at the Q said:
This past year, at age 21 in AA, Rocchio had 432 plate appearances and OPS'd .780 with 13 home runs and 81 strikeouts.

(the year before, at age 20, he OPS'd .865 at Akron in 203 plate appearances)

In 2014, at age 20 in AA, Lindor had 387 plate appearances and OPS'd .741 with 6 home runs and 61 strikeouts.

I still think people are underrating Rocchio. I'm not saying his power is going to develop the way Lindor's did, but I think he's as close to "can't miss" as prospects get. He's likely at least an average starting shortstop in the major leagues.
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That's mostly as I see him. I have little doubt that he won't carve out a nice ML career, but he doesn't have the ceiling that any of our top 3 SP prospects do. If anyone is being undervalued here it's Bibee. His stuff across the board is plus and he has impeccable control. Yes, Williams and Espino can hit triple digits with their FB, but 99 with better control is pretty f'n outstanding.

It's awesome to even be having this conversation and it speaks to how good this FO has done putting this entire thing together. That, I think we can all agree on.
 
CDAV45 said:
Williams pitched in AA as a 22 yr old. K'd nearly 11/9IP and gave up fewer than 6 hits in 9IP. He walked a little over 3 per 9IP so he could stand to real that in a little. His ERA was 2.31. FIP and xFIP aren't worth a damn in his case and I don't have a lot of confidence in those stats anyway. Take Quantrill for instance. His FIP and xFIP numbers never allow for his performance, yet he's been consistent for 3 yrs running now. There are endless articles describing in detail why those are flawed stats and to use the one stat that isn't screaming top prospect seems silly to me. Sometimes you just have to recognize the talent and no position player we have is as talented in their given positions as Williams is in his from what I can tell. That doesn't mean I don't like Rocchio or Valera because I do. Just not nearly as much as the 3 SP prospects that are ridiculously talented.
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So our minors are loaded with 1-3 SP talent again?
 
CDAV45 said:
That's mostly as I see him. I have little doubt that he won't carve out a nice ML career, but he doesn't have the ceiling that any of our top 3 SP prospects do. If anyone is being undervalued here it's Bibee. His stuff across the board is plus and he has impeccable control. Yes, Williams and Espino can hit triple digits with their FB, but 99 with better control is pretty f'n outstanding.

It's awesome to even be having this conversation and it speaks to how good this FO has done putting this entire thing together. That, I think we can all agree on.
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You're staring at 60 hit, speed and SS defense with a good chance at solid 50 power. That's an elite profile, especially at SS. Throw in off the charts intangibles (The Professor) to kick up the entire profie and you have a franchise type player.

And Rocchio is younger and played at higher levels than any of the 3 P
 
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Tondo said:
You're staring at 60 hit, speed and SS defense with a good chance at solid 50 power. That's an elite profile, especially at SS. Throw in off the charts intangibles (The Professor) to kick up the entire profie and you have a franchise type player.

And Rocchio is younger and played at higher levels than any of the 3 P
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It's not exactly fair to compare the ages since none of those pitchers were in the minors at that age...

See I rank guys differently, since if they have a good floor/low bust probability, I move them up a bit, which puts Bibee as my top prospects since, baring injuries, he has the best floor of all the prospects. At worst he is a BOR so if he can reach his top potential, he may not end up being a true 1, but he is for sure a legit 2. While Espino and Williams have the 1 top, they still have some bust possibilities...
 
A nugget from jeffdraft ... hidden in it, sounds like Bibee actually hit 100. Still think Espino is first of 3 due to Rule 5 if healthy. And said, why trade Espino now when other clubs are looking for health discounted value.
 
petes999 said:
A nugget from jeffdraft ... hidden in it, sounds like Bibee actually hit 100. Still think Espino is first of 3 due to Rule 5 if healthy. And said, why trade Espino now when other clubs are looking for health discounted value.
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Most salient in the comments by RyanYoung: "..All three are untouchable with how desired starting pitching is and the impending Bieber departure..."
 
Gson said:
Most salient in the comments by RyanYoung: "..All three are untouchable with how desired starting pitching is and the impending Bieber departure..."
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.......along with Quantrill, Civale and Plesac the following year. There's no way in hell that I'm trading any of those 3 without more SP depth being added first. With that looming talent extending any of Quantrill, Civale and Plesac seems pointless too. Especially with all of Morris, Pilkington, Gaddis, Curry, Battenfield and Allen having another year under their belt. We won't even mention Hankins and Cantillo. It will be enjoyable seeing who steps up and wins these jobs.
 
CDAV45 said:
.......along with Quantrill, Civale and Plesac the following year. There's no way in hell that I'm trading any of those 3 without more SP depth being added first. With that looming talent extending any of Quantrill, Civale and Plesac seems pointless too. Especially with all of Morris, Pilkington, Gaddis, Curry, Battenfield and Allen having another year under their belt. We won't even mention Hankins and Cantillo. It will be enjoyable seeing who steps up and wins these jobs.
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You forgot Burns... Though he may not end up a reliever since he has struggled with innings.

Either way we have the SP talent, to keep the factory rolling without any issues. Then the losers could follow Hentges and Morgan...
 
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