Tondo's 2023 Top 100 Guardians prospects

[Tondo]

59 SS/2B/3B Milan Tolentino (21.2yo, ranked 57th in 2022)

Tolentino is still tough to figure out, so I'm gonna hold on him.
He split the 2022 season at both class A levels with 200h PA at both stops. Tolentino was one of the best players in low A (144 wRc+) with good BB/K and SwStr%, but most of it was a BABIP mirage (433).
After his well deserved promotion to A+ his BABIP dropped to 340 and so did his overall slash line. Tolentino was still an average performer (97 wRc+), because he was able to carry over his elite 15% walk rate. But as we know, walk rate in A Ball isn't an indicator for future success, but K rate is, and Tolentino's jumped from 21 to 31% after his promotion. That's a huge red flag. But since his SwStr% was still good, this suggests Tolentino was too passive at the plate (he was: 4.2 P/AB).

But here's the good part: Tolentino had the best LD% at both levels in his age groups (sample of 138 prospects in class A, 38 in A+). So when he decides to swing, he makes a lot of hard contact, which also helps explain his higher BABIPs.
So how can he improve? Tolentino is a groundball heavy slasher with little power. It would help if he could lift the ball more often, but that's easier said than done. At the same time, he needs to swing earlier in counts to avoid strikeouts and use his speed more to get on base on contact. Tolentino stole 29 bases in 32 tries.

Tolentino gets high grades for his defense and he's played multiple positions. If his base stealing efficiency continues it puts him on track for an Util floor. Since power will never be a part of his game, his hit tool will ultimately decide his prospect stock. Tolentino was supposed to have above average bat control, so he needs to make more contact to improve his standing, especially in an org filled with MIF talent.
On paper, there's an opening or two at AA and a MIF logjam in A Ball, so Tolentino could get pushed up to Akron as 21yo, setting him up for a great chance to turn some heads and shoot up rankings, if he further fine tunes and maximizes his abilities.

 

[Tondo]

Depth and Periphery Prospects with fun or hopeful stats:

RHP T. Thornton (22.5yo): his 21% SwStr rate was second only to top 100 prospect Ricky Tiedeman (TOR) in class A out of 457 pitchers with 30+ IP.
Fellow Guards '21 draftees R. Boone (5th with 19.9%) and J. Leftwich (t10th, 18.8%) also made the top 10.
Thornton was a big conference arm with pedigree (won the college Freshman National Pitcher of the Year in 2019). CLE took him in 17th rd after bad draft year, moved him to the pen, added velo.

RHP F. Aleman (22.6yo): another college arm selected in the 2021 draft (10th rd). Out of 242 P in A Ball with 50+ IP, he had one of the worst ERAs at 6.31, but FIP/xFIPs were actually good 3.79/3.44, thanks to a strong 4.17 K/BB and 4th worst BABIP against (404).

Both Thornton and Aleman are big dudes with big fastballs and a good secondary. They will open in LC's bullpen and could enter the RP picture with good seasons.

 

[Criznit]

59 SS/2B/3B Milan Tolentino (21.2yo, ranked 57th in 2022)

Tolentino is still tough to figure out, so I'm gonna hold on him.
He split the 2022 season at both class A levels with 200h PA at both stops. Tolentino was one of the best players in low A (144 wRc+) with good BB/K and SwStr%, but most of it was a BABIP mirage (433).
After his well deserved promotion to A+ his BABIP dropped to 340 and so did his overall slash line. Tolentino was still an average performer (97 wRc+), because he was able to carry over his elite 15% walk rate. But as we know, walk rate in A Ball isn't an indicator for future success, but K rate is, and Tolentino's jumped from 21 to 31% after his promotion. That's a huge red flag. But since his SwStr% was still good, this suggests Tolentino was too passive at the plate (he was: 4.2 P/AB).

But here's the good part: Tolentino had the best LD% at both levels in his age groups (sample of 138 prospects in class A, 38 in A+). So when he decides to swing, he makes a lot of hard contact, which also helps explain his higher BABIPs.
So how can he improve? Tolentino is a groundball heavy slasher with little power. It would help if he could lift the ball more often, but that's easier said than done. At the same time, he needs to swing earlier in counts to avoid strikeouts and use his speed more to get on base on contact. Tolentino stole 29 bases in 32 tries.

Tolentino gets high grades for his defense and he's played multiple positions. If his base stealing efficiency continues it puts him on track for an Util floor. Since power will never be a part of his game, his hit tool will ultimately decide his prospect stock. Tolentino was supposed to have above average bat control, so he needs to make more contact to improve his standing, especially in an org filled with MIF talent.
On paper, there's an opening or two at AA and a MIF logjam in A Ball, so Tolentino could get pushed up to Akron as 21yo, setting him up for a great chance to turn some heads and shoot up rankings, if he further fine tunes and maximizes his abilities.

Speaking of wildcards... Milan Tolentino has entered the building... I really have no idea what to expect/project with this fella.

 

[sportscoach]

Speaking of wildcards... Milan Tolentino has entered the building... I really have no idea what to expect/project with this fella.

Honestly once he plays at AA... we will pretty much see... Since he should start at high A probably, since he struggled there. Hopefully he starts the season strong again so he can get to AA to really test him...

 

[Criznit]

Honestly once he plays at AA... we will pretty much see... Since he should start at high A probably, since he struggled there. Hopefully he starts the season strong again so he can get to AA to really test him...

He could end up streaking a lot of hits together to go along with a lot of less than stellar columns in the stat sheet.

Needs to K way less for starters. If he can do that... Maybe he has something.

 

[Tondo]

Here's a little self-scouting: it looks like I'm biased to rank hitting prospects quicker/sooner than pitchers. My rankings are skewed in favor of bats, and generally they're more valuable everything being equal. It's the last part I struggle with. Cas in point....

While I aggressively ranked rookie level data darlings (Benjamin, Mejias, Izturis, Collado), I didn't do that with pitchers. That's mostly because of habit, as the org doesn't have much pitching talent in rookie ball...usually. Here are some that deserve to be ranked, "everything being equal", so I'll try to make up here:

Evelio Hernandez (19.4yo): Hernandez was an unheralded signing in March 2022, when the bulk of that IFA class budget was already spent. Yet, he was one of the best 18yo and under pitchers in DSL last season. Pretty much top 10 or 20 in most relevant stats, especially SwStr%. There's a lot of buzz around Evelio and his stateside debut as a 19yo in AZL is worth keeping a close eye on.

Austin Aldeano (18.6): Aldeano was a fairly large IFA investment (150K) out of Panama on signing day in January 2021. He was a very young 16yo then, but still had a strong DSL debut with 10 starts that year. He remained in DSL in 2022 and started 11 games, refining his arsenal (noticeably induced more groundballs). He had a sub 3 ERA in both seasons and got rewarded with a late stateside call-up, where he pitched 4 scoreless innings in the Arizona Complex Leag (ACL/AZL).

Yorman Gomez (20.2yo): Gomez was a member of the pre pandemic 19/20 IFA class, the same class as Benjamin/Collado (and Caminero, the Tobias Myers fauxpas). Like them, Gomez was in Arizona rookie ball after a strong DSL debut in 2021. He had the 4th best K/BB ratio with strong a SwStr% ranking too, suggesting an intriguing mix of pitchability and stuff. Gomez will enter full season ball in the rotation at class A Lynchburg and is a SP worth following, and like the other two, he was probably worthy of being ranked somewhere, at least in the 35+ group.

 

[Tondo]

58 SS/2B/3B Christian Cairo (21.6yo, ranked 41st in 2022)

Yes, Christian is the son of Miguel Cairo. He is a prospect most probably don't consider to be one anymore and I won't blame anyone if you look at his overall stats. Cairo never really hit above 200 all season (ended 198), biggest culprit being his 4 for 50 April start.
But, there's hope for much more in his peripherals. His 8.7% SwStr rate was very good, especially in his age group, the same with his LD%, BB/K and GB/FB. What this data suggests is a prospect that is very selective, but hits the ball hard and in the air a lot. His very low 4% HR/FB will probably go up with physical maturation and strength gains.
Cairo finished the 2021 season in A+ too, so he was 20yo for most of his time there (mid June birthday). Here are two cumulative A+ slash lines, both 20yo:

262/346/385, BABIP 330, 0.49 GB/FB, 107 wRc+, 9.5 SwStr%

217/369/333, BABIP 304, 0.62 GB/FB, 107 wRc+, 8.3 SwStr%

The first line belongs to Petey Halpin, the second to Cairo. Does he have your attention now?
Additionally (and anecdotally), Cairo randomly got highlighted and praised by opposing teams radio announcers both times I tuned in to listen/watch LC play. One announcer I remember couldn't believe Cairo's numbers as he was hitting the ball hard vs them all week, loud outs included. Cairo also got a lot of praise for his smooth glove work and he has played more SS than 2B for LC. For them, Cairo was the best player on the LC team.
Of course, this is just a small sample view, but it shows that Cairo does have and flashes significant talent on both sides of the ball.
Cairo enters this upcoming season as 21yo with a chance to open on Akron's AA roster. I think the org still sees him as a real prospect and his peripherals scream breakout. I fully expect physical and developmental gains to collide in the next 2 years and believe Cairo is a huge sleeper in this system.

 

[petes999]

.
Cairo finished the 2021 season in A+ too, so he was 20yo for most of his time there (mid June birthday). Here are two cumulative A+ slash lines, both 20yo:

262/346/385, BABIP 330, 0.49 GB/FB, 107 wRc+, 9.5 SwStr%

217/369/333, BABIP 304, 0.62 GB/FB, 107 wRc+, 8.3 SwStr%

The first line belongs to Petey Halpin, the second to Cairo. Does he have your attention now?

I am not going to argue where you have Cairo as he had some injury issues last year too that slowed him down. But, let's not lie to try to inflate him. Petey is a much better prospect ... DOB - June 11, 2001 for Cairo and May 26, 2002 for Halpin. Thus, they were the same age for what 17 or so days ... but yeah call them both 20 year olds just before the slash line. Petey gets the nod (i have him better than your 21st) because he was a full year younger. Petey was brought into the system during COVID shutdown so missed the first year adjustments that he could have worked on while at home during shutdown that Cairo had. Knew what was expected. And, Petey hit .294 in his first year. Yeah, he struggled in A+ as a 20 year old/2 yr out of HS player but Petey's 2nd half numbers saw .394/1.015 in July and .273/.910 in August before wearing down in September in his 2nd full year.

Yet, I know you will get to Petey later. I just bring him up with your comparison as I haven't seen that same glimpse of sunshine from Cairo really at all. And his power being from his 5-8" 170 frame may never fully come unless he bulks up like Jose. It is one thing to say Cairo is just getting unlucky and having a great month and bad month and hopefully things even out over time. Yet, he has had only 3 months in his first 3 years (inc draft year) with an OPS over .760. He has another year to try to put it together but the odds are slim. That is because a 5-8"/170 twig hitting flyballs that don't go out of park isn't likely to develop into the next Jose as that was an anomaly. He almost needs to be a contact hitter like Kwan (at 5'9" 170) to make the bigs because pitchers are not going to give him that inside pitch like Kwan to pull for HR if he can't contact the outside pitch (or whatever his strength is). But Cairo's .266/.795 last Sept was his best contact -- not the .300 that Kwan was consistently putting up. If Cairo was hitting the ball hard and just getting unlucky, I would expect a good month here or there ... but it is not quite there yet. But, there is always hope. Thanks for writeup

 

[Tondo]

I am not going to argue where you have Cairo as he had some injury issues last year too that slowed him down. But, let's not lie to try to inflate him. Petey is a much better prospect ... DOB - June 11, 2001 for Cairo and May 26, 2002 for Halpin. Thus, they were the same age for what 17 or so days ... but yeah call them both 20 year olds just before the slash line. Petey gets the nod (i have him better than your 21st) because he was a full year younger. Petey was brought into the system during COVID shutdown so missed the first year adjustments that he could have worked on while at home during shutdown that Cairo had. Knew what was expected. And, Petey hit .294 in his first year. Yeah, he struggled in A+ as a 20 year old/2 yr out of HS player but Petey's 2nd half numbers saw .394/1.015 in July and .273/.910 in August before wearing down in September in his 2nd full year.

Yet, I know you will get to Petey later. I just bring him up with your comparison as I haven't seen that same glimpse of sunshine from Cairo really at all. And his power being from his 5-8" 170 frame may never fully come unless he bulks up like Jose. It is one thing to say Cairo is just getting unlucky and having a great month and bad month and hopefully things even out over time. Yet, he has had only 3 months in his first 3 years (inc draft year) with an OPS over .760. He has another year to try to put it together but the odds are slim. That is because a 5-8"/170 twig hitting flyballs that don't go out of park isn't likely to develop into the next Jose as that was an anomaly. He almost needs to be a contact hitter like Kwan (at 5'9" 170) to make the bigs because pitchers are not going to give him that inside pitch like Kwan to pull for HR if he can't contact the outside pitch (or whatever his strength is). But Cairo's .266/.795 last Sept was his best contact -- not the .300 that Kwan was consistently putting up. If Cairo was hitting the ball hard and just getting unlucky, I would expect a good month here or there ... but it is not quite there yet. But, there is always hope. Thanks for writeup

1/3 of Cairo's ABs in A+ came at the end of 2021, he was very much a 20yo there and had a 130+ wRc+. I used cumulative stats because of sample size (300+ PA). There's still an age and projection gap, that's why one is Top 20 and the other outside the top 50. I just tried to highlight that Cairo is a legit prospect.

I simply disagree with your outlook for Cairo and I already explained why. Neither contact nor quality of it is his problem. Cairo has much more power than you're giving him credit. I believe he has 50/40+ hit/game power potential, with both 55 speed and defense. That's his ceiling and that's an above average ML MIF

 

[petes999]

1/3 of Cairo's ABs in A+ came at the end of 2021, he was very much a 20yo there and had a 130+ wRc+. I used cumulative stats because of sample size (300+ PA). There's still an age and projection gap, that's why one is Top 20 and the other outside the top 50. I just tried to highlight that Cairo is a legit prospect.

I simply disagree with your outlook for Cairo and I already explained why. Neither contact nor quality of it is his problem. Cairo has much more power than you're giving him credit. I believe he has 50/40+ hit/game power potential, with both 55 speed and defense. That's his ceiling and that's an above average ML MIF

It is fine that we disagree whether he will be a breakout sleeper potential or not. However, to use the logic that he is okay contact just because a bad April (4 for 50) but disregard my comment that he never hit above .266 in any specific month in 3 seasons at all is a little disingenuous to say contact isn't a problem just because a low swinging strike rate. Did you know he almost strikes out as much as Tolentino (27.2% vs 31.6% at same LC level with Tolentino being 6 months younger)? Even if you remove Cairo's April numbers, he hit .219 the rest of the year with 2 HRs.

Yet, the bigger concern for Cairo is where does he get playing time to go from potential to realizing it? Even if you go based on your ratings, where does Cairo fit, other than a back-up/part-time shared starter role?

For 12 positions at 2nd, SS and 3rd in Lynch, LC, Akr and Col, you have in your ratings ... Rocchio, Martinez, Brito, Freeman (utility MLB), Fox, Tena, Arias (utility MLB), Benjamin, Rodriquez, Geano, Frias, Furman and before Tolentino/Cairo battle... That is 10 hitters getting playing time before Tolentino/Cairo for a last type spot. 3B for AAA is probably Fry (as Rodriquez and Martinez start in AA). Thus, Tolentino and Cairo are battling for A+/AA playing time .... and that doesn't even include guys like Valdes, Tucker and Pastrano (million dollar babies) needing one last chance.

AAA - Rocchio, Tena, Fry
AA - Rodriquez, Martinez, Brito(?)
A+ - Frias, Furman, Fox (say Furman here as college pitchers started in LC last year)
A - Benjamin, Geano and Pastrano/Tucker

So unless Fox goes CF permanently, Tolentino and Cairo are battling for minor league playing time let alone mlb role in a few years. And, another interesting tidbit ... Tolentino had a slightly better ISO (.111 vs .086) at the same level last year. You can bend stats anyway you want to prove a point I guess.

 

[Tondo]

I acknowledged Cairo's struggles (never hit above 200), but that's not my point. The general mix up here is that you look mostly on surface stats and what prospect he was, while I argue what player he can be. The prospect game is always about the future. I've done this with Kwan and Brennan and even predicted Call's ascension from the minors cut list last offseason.

There's no guarantee that Cairo will break out, but he hits similar parameters. It's not an exact science, but I always look at available stats to get an idea of a prospect while you highlight certain stats in a vacuum to make your point. I get it, but I don't want to engage in this. I tried to make my arguments on Cairo and why I believe his K rate is less of a problem than with Tolentino (better BB/K, SwStr), it's an easier fixable approach problem than contact problem, if you look at the data as a whole. Whereas Tolentino has more problems to solve to succeed.

Playing time will be no issue for both. In AA, there's G. Rodriguez and Martinez, that's pretty much it. The logjam is in A Ball. Both Cairo and Tolentino could open at AA and get enough PAs. And all it takes is one injury between Cleveland and Akron to get all relevant prospects to start daily.
Playing time for development ain't the problem, future role on the 40/26 roster very much is, but that shouldn't influence a prospect evaluation much (see Fermin, another overlooked prospect I backed as legit ML prospect when most had forgotten about him).

 

[Tondo]

57 Guy Lipscomb Jr. (21.9yo, 2022 5th rd pick}

Gotta love a guy named Guy. CLEFO certainly did and picked their Guy, Lipscomb, in round 5 of the last draft out of Belmont university, making him the highest picked player out of Belmont since 1975. Lipscomb (along with 4th rd Furman) was one of my favorite college bats in the draft. He was widely ranked as a mid to late 2nd day pick (rd 6-9), so CLE secured him sooner and got him to sign below slot.
Lipscomb was a true Sophomore and played only 2 years in the OVC conference. After a meh and part time FR season, he exploded in 2022 with a 406/484/548 line and 42/48 in stolen bases. Oh, and of course he barely struck out and walked more (29/18 BB/K). So your typical CLE college bat target.

Lipscomb's profile is very similar to the other college day 2 CF they've drafted and successfully developed lately (Kwan, Brennan, Kokx). Contact and speed but no power. Guy jr has easy plus plus speed as his best tool. With no wooden bats summer league track record and only one successful college season, CLE is taking a risk on how real Lipscomb's contact ability really is. He's 6'2/195, so he's got the frame to add more power to his game and his speed gives him a leg up to remain in CF.

All in all, Lipscomb represents a rare piece of developmental clay for a college draftee. From his small school background, to age/class, frame and athleticism. Everything about this profile hints at hidden upside.
With that comes risk of course and probably a slower path through the minors. Considering the sudden OF depth throughout the Guardians system, Lipscomb will probably start his pro career in class A Lynchburg.

 

[Criznit]

We always seem to produce a decent or better MLB player drafted in rounds 4-7. Why can't it be this Guy?

 

[Benway]

Very disappointed to learn that Guy Lipscomb is actually named... Mike.

 

[Gson]

Very disappointed to learn that Guy Lipscomb is actually named... Mike.

Really?.. Mike???? cut this common-ass named imposter now...