Wattch Party Commits to the Cards

[Randolphkeys]

You have to dig into the metric you're using if you expect it to have any value.

How do they calculate "time to throw"? If it stops when the QB releases the ball, that's always going to be skewed because Brady gets the ball out quickly, while Mahomes holds it forever.

Plenty has been written about this by now, but a few factors led to Mahomes playing his worst game in over two years.

1. Offensive tackles - They were down to backups up and down the line. We talked about the Browns taking advantage, but Myles wasn't himself and the other end position didn't get the same pressure Tampa could generate. So again, people saying a bookend to replace Vernon are completely correct. Question remains if it's Watt or somebody else.

2. Mahomes played hero ball - The dumpoff passes were there for Mahomes after the second drive stalled out, but Mahomes preferred running backwards to buy more time and unloading longer passes.

If that sounds familiar, it's what Browns fans begged Baker to stop doing for a year and a half. The difference being, Mahomes had great physical tools to get out of trouble against most defenses. The Bucs defense had great linebacker coverage to mask the blitzes, but Mahomes also didn't take the easy five yards when the easy throw was there.

 

[sportscoach]

Lets just go get Watt! Watt and Garrett together...

 

[bronko]

I can't believe we're pinning our hopes to guys like Watt and Sherman. They are too old for the FO's plans. If Depodesta has much input, they won't make a move like these unless they're way below market value, which isn't going to happen, especially in Watt's case. Just because we've had one successful year won't cause the team to make go for broke moves. Instead, I see them continuing their strategy of looking for guys coming off early contracts in their mid or late twenties. Sustainable success is the goal, championships will spring from there.

 

[AZ_]

I can't believe we're pinning our hopes to guys like Watt and Sherman. They are too old for the FO's plans. If Depodesta has much input, they won't make a move like these unless they're way below market value, which isn't going to happen, especially in Watt's case. Just because we've had one successful year won't cause the team to make go for broke moves. Instead, I see them continuing their strategy of looking for guys coming off early contracts in their mid or late twenties. Sustainable success is the goal, championships will spring from there.

Analytics aside, the Browns aren’t likely going to be able to afford that type of contract for guys getting the “second deal” after their rookie contracts.

They have their own guys to re-sign before that.

Watt or Sherman are 1-2 year deals that give them the flexibility and talent, while keeping long term commitments lower to sign their core.

 

[DJTJ]

Analytics aside, the Browns aren’t likely going to be able to afford that type of contract for guys getting the “second deal” after their rookie contracts.

They have their own guys to re-sign before that.

Watt or Sherman are 1-2 year deals that give them the flexibility and talent, while keeping long term commitments lower to sign their core.

Any deal with Watt/Sherman almost will be entirely front loaded before any extensions take place, and it’s unlikely either would be on the team before the start of Baker/Ward extension starting year.

 

[GonzoRatso88]

I am guessing the Browns are going to ask OBJ/Landry/Richardson to re-adjust their contracts and if they are willing, it will give the Browns more wiggle room to maybe offer Watt more upfront and also do extensions for Baker/Ward/Chubb/Teller....

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Plenty has been written about this by now, but a few factors led to Mahomes playing his worst game in over two years.

1. Offensive tackles - They were down to backups up and down the line. We talked about the Browns taking advantage, but Myles wasn't himself and the other end position didn't get the same pressure Tampa could generate. So again, people saying a bookend to replace Vernon are completely correct. Question remains if it's Watt or somebody else.

2. Mahomes played hero ball - The dumpoff passes were there for Mahomes after the second drive stalled out, but Mahomes preferred running backwards to buy more time and unloading longer passes.

If that sounds familiar, it's what Browns fans begged Baker to stop doing for a year and a half. The difference being, Mahomes had great physical tools to get out of trouble against most defenses. The Bucs defense had great linebacker coverage to mask the blitzes, but Mahomes also didn't take the easy five yards when the easy throw was there.

We're very unlikely to be facing Mahomes behind that beat-up an offensive line again, so putting that kind of pressure on him isn't something we can build a defense around.

We also can't count on Mahomes passing up underneath routes, although that wasn't as much the issue. The Bucs chose to deny Mahones and his pass catchers the outside, and deep. They wanted to force everything in the front/middle, and then counted on their linebackers and Winfield to make tackles and prevent YAC. So even when Mahomes made those throws, there weren't a lot of yards. Fast hits by defenders covering closely created drops, etc..

Bowles said after the game that the key was forcing Mahones off his first read to make him uncomfortable.

I don't see any way to slow down Mahomes, much less replicate the Bucs' level of success, without significant improvements in safety and linebacker play. And I don't see how we afford that if we're stretching to add a name like Watt.

 

[Jack Brickman]

We're very unlikely to be facing Mahomes behind that beat-up an offensive line again, so putting that kind of pressure on him isn't something we can build a defense around.

We also can't count on Mahomes passing up underneath routes, although that wasn't as much the issue. The Bucs chose to deny Mahones and his pass catchers the outside, and deep. They wanted to force everything in the front/middle, and then counted on their linebackers and Winfield to make tackles and prevent YAC. So even when Mahomes made those throws, there weren't a lot of yards. Fast hits by defenders covering closely created drops, etc..

Bowles said after the game that the key was forcing Mahones off his first read to make him uncomfortable.

I don't see any way to slow down Mahomes, much less replicate the Bucs' level of success, without significant improvements in safety and linebacker play. And I don't see how we afford that if we're stretching to add a name like Watt.

Well, we should be getting Delpit back next year, and he will hopefully be a big upgrade at safety. I assume most of our draft will be focused on defense as well.

 

[JDailey23]

I can't believe we're pinning our hopes to guys like Watt and Sherman. They are too old for the FO's plans. If Depodesta has much input, they won't make a move like these unless they're way below market value, which isn't going to happen, especially in Watt's case. Just because we've had one successful year won't cause the team to make go for broke moves. Instead, I see them continuing their strategy of looking for guys coming off early contracts in their mid or late twenties. Sustainable success is the goal, championships will spring from there.

I don’t think anyone is necessarily pinning all our hopes on these two. To down play their experience, leadership and ability is kinda silly. These two would be immediate upgrades in the short term to take advantage of the situation we are in before all these stars we have get paid.

 

[Randolphkeys]

We're very unlikely to be facing Mahomes behind that beat-up an offensive line again, so putting that kind of pressure on him isn't something we can build a defense around.

We also can't count on Mahomes passing up underneath routes, although that wasn't as much the issue. The Bucs chose to deny Mahones and his pass catchers the outside, and deep. They wanted to force everything in the front/middle, and then counted on their linebackers and Winfield to make tackles and prevent YAC. So even when Mahomes made those throws, there weren't a lot of yards. Fast hits by defenders covering closely created drops, etc..

Bowles said after the game that the key was forcing Mahones off his first read to make him uncomfortable.

I agree with you fully on what Bowles tried and succeeded in doing. The ability of both inside linebackers to cover and blitz was crucial to his game plan. As I've mentioned, I'm more open to a high ceiling linebacker with experience in coverage in the first two rounds.

Don't see any way to slow down Mahomes, much less replicate the Bucs' level of success, without significant improvements in safety and linebacker play. And I don't see how we afford that if we're stretching to add a name like Watt.

This is the one area I disagree with you. The Browns can address the defense two different ways:

1. Draft an EDGE in the first round, which fills a premium cost position at a cheap 2.7 million price tag in the first year. Then, fill the defensive backfield and one linebacker position with a few starter level free agents. I actually like this approach quite a bit because the Browns seem like a desirable FA destination. I'd be keeping an eye on corners X. Rhodes, M. Alexander and A. Witherspoon who have connections to the system.

2. Sign JJ Watt before the draft, which can be done since he was granted his full release, and figure out the defensive backfield and a linebacker spot in the first two days of the draft. This has one clear upside: the biggest hole on the defense is locked down and the Browns can truly go BPA throughout the draft to fill the defense.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I agree with you fully on what Bowles tried and succeeded in doing. The ability of both inside linebackers to cover and blitz was crucial to his game plan. As I've mentioned, I'm more open to a high ceiling linebacker with experience in coverage in the first two rounds.



This is the one area I disagree with you. The Browns can address the defense two different ways:

1. Draft an EDGE in the first round, which fills a premium cost position at a cheap 2.7 million price tag in the first year. Then, fill the defensive backfield and one linebacker position with a few starter level free agents. I actually like this approach quite a bit because the Browns seem like a desirable FA destination. I'd be keeping an eye on corners X. Rhodes, M. Alexander and A. Witherspoon who have connections to the system.

I don't think "starter level" for our holes in the back seven is enough, but I guess we'll see. I don't think JJ Watt -- for example -- is going to make enough of a difference up front to compensate for a mediocre or below back 7, which is what we'd have. I think we need more actual playmakers back there than just Ward or we'll get slaughtered by underneath stuff before the edge rushers can get to Mahomes.

I'd rather put more into our DB's/LB's, and create pressure if necessary by blitzing rather than trying to overwhelm with talent on the edges. Better coverage by the back 7 may permit more chances for blitzing because you can trust the rest of the back 7 to hold for long enough.

 

[DJTJ]

I don't think "starter level" for our holes in the back seven is enough, but I guess we'll see. I don't think JJ Watt -- for example -- is going to make enough of a difference up front to compensate for a mediocre or below back 7, which is what we'd have. I think we need more actual playmakers back there than just Ward or we'll get slaughtered by underneath stuff before the edge rushers can get to Mahomes.

I'd rather put more into our DB's/LB's, and create pressure if necessary by blitzing rather than trying to overwhelm with talent on the edges. Better coverage by the back 7 may permit more chances for blitzing because you can trust the rest of the back 7 to hold for long enough.

FWIW, this is the exact opposite of the way Joe Woods schemes. His entire goal is that four rushers will get to the QB quick enough that by the time the zone sets the routes will be gone.

When you zone blitz, especially in a modern league, it’s wildly easy to succeed, because you just find spots that are no longer occupied by a blitz. Woods tries to combat that by essentially dividing up the field, and taking away the top. As we saw all year, this gives a lot of free short plays. Some argued about the talent it takes to play this scheme, but in reality, the expectation is built on consistent pressure from four lineman, not crazy success from the DBs and linebackers.

Watt, moreso than Sherman, assists with that. Ideally, though, the IDL creates enough pressure that the ends ultimately clean up. Signing Watt, if we’re lucky enough to do so, at least allows us to skip using the first rounder on someone that gets the QB, because schematically, unless we just decide to go crazy and play press man, we’re always going to struggle against a short passing attack.

 

[Randolphkeys]

FWIW, this is the exact opposite of the way Joe Woods schemes. His entire goal is that four rushers will get to the QB quick enough that by the time the zone sets the routes will be gone.

When you zone blitz, especially in a modern league, it’s wildly easy to succeed, because you just find spots that are no longer occupied by a blitz. Woods tries to combat that by essentially dividing up the field, and taking away the top. As we saw all year, this gives a lot of free short plays. Some argued about the talent it takes to play this scheme, but in reality, the expectation is built on consistent pressure from four lineman, not crazy success from the DBs and linebackers.

Watt, moreso than Sherman, assists with that. Ideally, though, the IDL creates enough pressure that the ends ultimately clean up. Signing Watt, if we’re lucky enough to do so, at least allows us to skip using the first rounder on someone that gets the QB, because schematically, unless we just decide to go crazy and play press man, we’re always going to struggle against a short passing attack.

Correct.

Also a fun little fact: Tampa finished 5th in the NFL in blitz percentage at 39.0% while the Browns were 30th at 21.3%.

However, in hurry percentage they were tied for seventh in the NFL, creating hurries on 10.6% of the opponent's dropbacks.

So blitzing does not necessarily create more pressure if the front four are talented.

 

[DJTJ]

Correct.

Also a fun little fact: Tampa finished 5th in the NFL in blitz percentage at 39.0% while the Browns were 30th at 21.3%.

However, in hurry percentage they were tied for seventh in the NFL, creating hurries on 10.6% of the opponent's dropbacks.

So blitzing does not necessarily create more pressure if the front four are talented.

And from a statistical standpoint, to me, this just proves that our scheme is worthless.

Realistically, you successfully pressure about 15-20% at the most. We got 10%, and yet still had one of the worst pass defenses in football because of how easy underneath was to get.

 

[Randolphkeys]

And from a statistical standpoint, to me, this just proves that our scheme is worthless.

Realistically, you successfully pressure about 15-20% at the most. We got 10%, and yet still had one of the worst pass defenses in football because of how easy underneath was to get.

That's not how a zone works. Having more players in coverage rather than blitzing should create better coverage. The problem was the lack of execution and coverage awareness of the players.