Why the Guardians will win over 100 games this year

[CATS44]

On paper we should produce more runs since we should have more production with the bat at DH and C... That was really the point trying to be conveyed

A valid point.

But it's a point that most teams make at this time of year.

Personally, I think the 23 Guards will score more runs than last year. But the question is how many more...or less...wins will those extra runs garner?

IMO those extra runs could very well be nullified by the more balanced schedule.

I can visualize this team as a 95-97 win team vs the old schedule.

 

[Gson]

On paper we should produce more runs since we should have more production with the bat at DH and C... That was really the point trying to be conveyed

Replacing three key roles.. Considering the DH and C roles alone may be one shy of what is truly going to determine if the Guardians can produce more runs versus and prevent more runs from the opponents scoring. The inclusion of the utility infielders that were trotted out regularly have to be considered as being replaced as well. That two member deep dark hole are both gonzo.. So, three spots being replaced with one savvy veteran and two fairly green rookies? This is the plan to score more and prevent more?.. really?..

Let's look.. If the assumption is that Josh Bell is going to somehow supercharge the offense.. here is what he did last year (and assume that he can duplicate the overall results) versus who was here:

DH Production: In approximately 550 +/- AB's
In: Josh Bell: ................................0.267 BA.....17 HR's.....71 RBI's....100 K's.....81 BB's
Out: Fran(wind)mil/Naylor.....0.234 BA.....21 HR's.....77 RBI's....148 K's.....36 BB's

Note: As you can see.. the difference between the two is found in how Josh Bell helps his team score more while Franmil and Naylor counted "selfish" stats by striking out much more often and walking much less often. Does that translate to more runs and more wins?.. I'd say yes.. Good things happen when the ball is put in play..

Utility Infield production.. Let's look.. If the assumption is that with Owen Miller being gone and Ernie Clement now bouncing around in more than one major league minor league system.. the guys the Guardians have retained with the idea they are going to somehow supercharge the offense..is a question.. Well, faith is needed.. Here is what they did last year with the Guardians adjusted for about 575 AB's between two guys:

Utility Infield Production: In approximately 575 +/- AB's <projected.
In: Arias & Freeman: ................................0.226 BA..... 6 HR's.....45 RBI's....149 K's.....66 BB's
Out: Miller & Ernie: ..................................0.231 BA..... 6 HR's.....77 RBI's....148 K's.....36 BB's

Note: Clearly, the SSS for this pair of youngsters is way too small to say anything with any level of certainty or confidence that the Guardians are going to score a whole bunch more runs, &, with it, win more games.. The only advantage in this small sampling that rings true is Arias and Freeman are going to get on base slightly more often. This isn't what ya'all wanted to hear? FWIW, I don't believe Arias is going to hit at a sub .200 level nor will Freeman hit as poorly as he did in his few chances.. So, there's hope.. without a lot of statistical proof to support it..

Are we having fun yet?..

Lastly on the list is the Catching situation.. We'll use Zunino's production from 2021 as his 2022 season was a disaster or disappointment due to injury..

Catching Production: In approximately 475 +/- AB's <projected.
In: Zunino & Naylor: .....................................0.211 BA.....46 HR's.....87 RBI's....184 K's.....55 BB's
Out: Hedges & Maile: ..................................0.185 BA.....10 HR's.....47 RBI's....132 K's.....44 BB's

Note: Clearly, the SSS for the position of catcher coupled with almost no historical record of production to speak of from young Nayler.. & it's way too uncertain to say anything with any level of confidence that the Guardians are much better off.. These numbers do suggest that if Zunino comes back to be anywhere close (80 %??) to his 2021 season, then the Guardians are going to score a whole bunch more runs, &, with it, win more games.. Yet to be seen...

In summary.. these three areas, while appearing to be strongly address the needs of the club going forward, they may end being nothing more than marginal replacements at worst. The changes do portend a pretty good chance we'll see more run production..

Thoughts?..

 

[Benway]

It's all about the outs, baby.

 

[macbdog]

Replacing three key roles.. Considering the DH and C roles alone may be one shy of what is truly going to determine if the Guardians can produce more runs versus and prevent more runs from the opponents scoring. The inclusion of the utility infielders that were trotted out regularly have to be considered as being replaced as well. That two member deep dark hole are both gonzo.. So, three spots being replaced with one savvy veteran and two fairly green rookies? This is the plan to score more and prevent more?.. really?..

Let's look.. If the assumption is that Josh Bell is going to somehow supercharge the offense.. here is what he did last year (and assume that he can duplicate the overall results) versus who was here:

DH Production: In approximately 550 +/- AB's
In: Josh Bell: ................................0.267 BA.....17 HR's.....71 RBI's....100 K's.....81 BB's
Out: Fran(wind)mil/Naylor.....0.234 BA.....21 HR's.....77 RBI's....148 K's.....36 BB's

Note: As you can see.. the difference between the two is found in how Josh Bell helps his team score more while Franmil and Naylor counted "selfish" stats by striking out much more often and walking much less often. Does that translate to more runs and more wins?.. I'd say yes.. Good things happen when the ball is put in play..

Utility Infield production.. Let's look.. If the assumption is that with Owen Miller being gone and Ernie Clement now bouncing around in more than one major league minor league system.. the guys the Guardians have retained with the idea they are going to somehow supercharge the offense..is a question.. Well, faith is needed.. Here is what they did last year with the Guardians adjusted for about 575 AB's between two guys:

Utility Infield Production: In approximately 575 +/- AB's <projected.
In: Arias & Freeman: ................................0.226 BA..... 6 HR's.....45 RBI's....149 K's.....66 BB's
Out: Miller & Ernie: ..................................0.231 BA..... 6 HR's.....77 RBI's....148 K's.....36 BB's

Note: Clearly, the SSS for this pair of youngsters is way too small to say anything with any level of certainty or confidence that the Guardians are going to score a whole bunch more runs, &, with it, win more games.. The only advantage in this small sampling that rings true is Arias and Freeman are going to get on base slightly more often. This isn't what ya'all wanted to hear? FWIW, I don't believe Arias is going to hit at a sub .200 level nor will Freeman hit as poorly as he did in his few chances.. So, there's hope.. without a lot of statistical proof to support it..

Are we having fun yet?..

Lastly on the list is the Catching situation.. We'll use Zunino's production from 2021 as his 2022 season was a disaster or disappointment due to injury..

Catching Production: In approximately 475 +/- AB's <projected.
In: Zunino & Naylor: .....................................0.211 BA.....46 HR's.....87 RBI's....184 K's.....55 BB's
Out: Hedges & Maile: ..................................0.185 BA.....10 HR's.....47 RBI's....132 K's.....44 BB's

Note: Clearly, the SSS for the position of catcher coupled with almost no historical record of production to speak of from young Nayler.. & it's way too uncertain to say anything with any level of confidence that the Guardians are much better off.. These numbers do suggest that if Zunino comes back to be anywhere close (80 %??) to his 2021 season, then the Guardians are going to score a whole bunch more runs, &, with it, win more games.. Yet to be seen...

In summary.. these three areas, while appearing to be strongly address the needs of the club going forward, they may end being nothing more than marginal replacements at worst. The changes do portend a pretty good chance we'll see more run production..

Thoughts?..

Have the Gs ever, in their history, gotten 46 HRs from the C position in a season? You so forgot to add in the upgrade at SS after they sign Correa and deal Amed.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Replacing three key roles.. Considering the DH and C roles alone may be one shy of what is truly going to determine if the Guardians can produce more runs versus and prevent more runs from the opponents scoring. The inclusion of the utility infielders that were trotted out regularly have to be considered as being replaced as well. That two member deep dark hole are both gonzo.. So, three spots being replaced with one savvy veteran and two fairly green rookies? This is the plan to score more and prevent more?.. really?..

Let's look.. If the assumption is that Josh Bell is going to somehow supercharge the offense.. here is what he did last year (and assume that he can duplicate the overall results) versus who was here:

DH Production: In approximately 550 +/- AB's
In: Josh Bell: ................................0.267 BA.....17 HR's.....71 RBI's....100 K's.....81 BB's
Out: Fran(wind)mil/Naylor.....0.234 BA.....21 HR's.....77 RBI's....148 K's.....36 BB's

Note: As you can see.. the difference between the two is found in how Josh Bell helps his team score more while Franmil and Naylor counted "selfish" stats by striking out much more often and walking much less often. Does that translate to more runs and more wins?.. I'd say yes.. Good things happen when the ball is put in play..

Utility Infield production.. Let's look.. If the assumption is that with Owen Miller being gone and Ernie Clement now bouncing around in more than one major league minor league system.. the guys the Guardians have retained with the idea they are going to somehow supercharge the offense..is a question.. Well, faith is needed.. Here is what they did last year with the Guardians adjusted for about 575 AB's between two guys:

Utility Infield Production: In approximately 575 +/- AB's <projected.
In: Arias & Freeman: ................................0.226 BA..... 6 HR's.....45 RBI's....149 K's.....66 BB's
Out: Miller & Ernie: ..................................0.231 BA..... 6 HR's.....77 RBI's....148 K's.....36 BB's

Note: Clearly, the SSS for this pair of youngsters is way too small to say anything with any level of certainty or confidence that the Guardians are going to score a whole bunch more runs, &, with it, win more games.. The only advantage in this small sampling that rings true is Arias and Freeman are going to get on base slightly more often. This isn't what ya'all wanted to hear? FWIW, I don't believe Arias is going to hit at a sub .200 level nor will Freeman hit as poorly as he did in his few chances.. So, there's hope.. without a lot of statistical proof to support it..

Are we having fun yet?..

Lastly on the list is the Catching situation.. We'll use Zunino's production from 2021 as his 2022 season was a disaster or disappointment due to injury..

Catching Production: In approximately 475 +/- AB's <projected.
In: Zunino & Naylor: .....................................0.211 BA.....46 HR's.....87 RBI's....184 K's.....55 BB's
Out: Hedges & Maile: ..................................0.185 BA.....10 HR's.....47 RBI's....132 K's.....44 BB's

Note: Clearly, the SSS for the position of catcher coupled with almost no historical record of production to speak of from young Nayler.. & it's way too uncertain to say anything with any level of confidence that the Guardians are much better off.. These numbers do suggest that if Zunino comes back to be anywhere close (80 %??) to his 2021 season, then the Guardians are going to score a whole bunch more runs, &, with it, win more games.. Yet to be seen...

In summary.. these three areas, while appearing to be strongly address the needs of the club going forward, they may end being nothing more than marginal replacements at worst. The changes do portend a pretty good chance we'll see more run production..

Thoughts?..

The Guardians ranked 29th last year in OPS at the DH position. The batting line was .217/.277/.310/.587 with 8 home runs and 57 RBI's in 632 AB's. Un-fucking-believable.

2023 MLB Team Hitting Stat Leaders

The official source for MLB team hitting stats, home runs, batting average, OPS and stat leaders

www.mlb.com

Josh Bell effectively replaces most of those 632 at-bats. He may play first base with Josh Naylor moving to DH, but in effect Bell will take the DH at-bats we got from Franmil, Miller, and others who combined for a .587 OPS at a position where offense is the ONLY consideration.

Bell's career average is .262/.810. Last year in 375 AB's in Washington he hit .301/.877 before falling down after being traded to the Padres. The year before he hit .261/.823. The year before that was .277/.936.

There's a very good chance the DH position, which ALWAYS hits in the middle of the lineup, will see a HUGE jump in production. The bar couldn't possibly be any lower!

That's another factor - it's not like our #8 or #9 hitter batted .217/.587. This was in many cases our CLEANUP hitter or #5 hitter that was a rally killer right after Kwan, Rosario, and Ramirez set the table.

As for catcher, the G's also ranked 29th with a composite line of .180/.534 in 506 at-bats. In 2021, before he got hurt, Zunino hit .216/.860 with 33 home runs in 333 at-bats. That's an improvement of almost 350 OPS points! Zunino probably will not get 506 at-bats, but even 400 would represent a huge improvement over the .534 OPS we got from Hedges and Maile last year no matter what the backup catcher does with his 100 at-bats.

2023 MLB Team Hitting Stat Leaders

The official source for MLB team hitting stats, home runs, batting average, OPS and stat leaders

www.mlb.com

Another interesting stat I found was the batting line in games lost. In this case the G's ranked 27th at .203/.554. In games won they hit .290/.800. So getting a lot more production from the C and DH positions should result in significantly more wins. The W/L record ws heavily influenced by offense last year as the pitching was pretty consistent.

The Guardians lost 17 games last year by one run. How many of those losses will be wins next year if we rank, say, 15th instead of 29th at DH and catcher? How about if Jose doesn't play the last two-thirds of the season with a broken hand? How about if Josh Naylor faces the shift 0% of the time instead of 77%. How about if we don't have Straw hit leadoff for the first 201 at-bats of the season with a sub-.300 OBP? How about if Oscar starts the season in RF instead of showing up in May or June?

 

[sportscoach]

The Guardians ranked 29th last year in OPS at the DH position. The batting line was .217/.277/.310/.587 with 8 home runs and 57 RBI's in 632 AB's. Un-fucking-believable.

2023 MLB Team Hitting Stat Leaders

The official source for MLB team hitting stats, home runs, batting average, OPS and stat leaders

www.mlb.com

Josh Bell effectively replaces most of those 632 at-bats. He may play first base with Josh Naylor moving to DH, but in effect Bell will take the DH at-bats we got from Franmil, Miller, and others who combined for a .587 OPS at a position where offense is the ONLY consideration.

Bell's career average is .262/.810. Last year in 375 AB's in Washington he hit .301/.877 before falling down after being traded to the Padres. The year before he hit .261/.823. The year before that was .277/.936.

There's a very good chance the DH position, which ALWAYS hits in the middle of the lineup, will see a HUGE jump in production. The bar couldn't possibly be any lower!

That's another factor - it's not like our #8 or #9 hitter batted .217/.587. This was in many cases our CLEANUP hitter or #5 hitter that was a rally killer right after Kwan, Rosario, and Ramirez set the table.

As for catcher, the G's also ranked 29th with a composite line of .180/.534 in 506 at-bats. In 2021, before he got hurt, Zunino hit .216/.860 with 33 home runs in 333 at-bats. That's an improvement of almost 350 OPS points! Zunino probably will not get 506 at-bats, but even 400 would represent a huge improvement over the .534 OPS we got from Hedges and Maile last year no matter what the backup catcher does with his 100 at-bats.

2023 MLB Team Hitting Stat Leaders

The official source for MLB team hitting stats, home runs, batting average, OPS and stat leaders

www.mlb.com

Another interesting stat I found was the batting line in games lost. In this case the G's ranked 27th at .203/.554. In games won they hit .290/.800. So getting a lot more production from the C and DH positions should result in significantly more wins. The W/L record ws heavily influenced by offense last year as the pitching was pretty consistent.

The Guardians lost 17 games last year by one run. How many of those losses will be wins next year if we rank, say, 15th instead of 29th at DH and catcher? How about if Jose doesn't play the last two-thirds of the season with a broken hand? How about if Josh Naylor faces the shift 0% of the time instead of 77%. How about if we don't have Straw hit leadoff for the first 201 at-bats of the season with a sub-.300 OBP? How about if Oscar starts the season in RF instead of showing up in May or June?

Aka, runs per game on paper is already up and we made two moves to make the club better...

 

[CATS44]

On paper we are gonna score more runs. The questions are how many and how that translates into wins.

Expectations of significantly better offense are dependent upon four big questions.

1) Do Kwan and Gimenez maintain their 2022 level of production?

2) Is Oscar the real deal with a profile that makes it doubtful?

3) Which Bell do we get? He's averaged about 23 HR and about 54 total XBH per 600 PAs, but he's had some extreme variations.

4) What can you really expect from Zunino? Certainly not his freak production in 2021. Over 400 PAs he has averaged 19 HR and 33 total XBH. Because he Ks as much as Zimmer/Bradley, and because his defense is not equal to the elite levels of Hedges/Berto, he has to put up that level of power production to be much of an upgrade. He also has to be healthy.

Negative answers to any of those questions negate positive answers to others.

Time will tell.

 

[Gson]

@CATS44 This is why the letter by national pundits is a B-...

 

[Benway]

What was our "grade" last spring?

 

[KluberSociety]

What was our "grade" last spring?

F I think but in retrospect it ended up being pretty good because the OF came through. The consensus was that we should've traded for OF.

 

[Gson]

Have the Gs ever, in their history, gotten 46 HRs from the C position in a season? You so forgot to add in the upgrade at SS after they sign Correa and deal Amed.

no

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Carlos Baerga is fired up about this question.

I really like what the Guardians did last season,” said Baerga. “I think it’s going to be better this year because they’re going to be more mature and they know the league now.

“Adding Josh Bell, to hit behind Jose Ramirez, that puts them at another level. We’re going to be a lot better than last year and that’s scary because we were really good last year.”

Baerga brings up a consideration nobody has mentioned yet - the fact that all these guys who were rookies last year "know the league now". Of course, the league also knows them, so we'll see what happens.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Replacing three key roles...If the assumption is that Josh Bell is going to somehow supercharge the offense.. here is what he did last year (and assume that he can duplicate the overall results) versus who was here:

DH Production: In approximately 550 +/- AB's
In: Josh Bell: ................................0.267 BA.....17 HR's.....71 RBI's....100 K's.....81 BB's
Out: Fran(wind)mil/Naylor.....0.234 BA.....21 HR's.....77 RBI's....148 K's.....36 BB's

Note: As you can see.. the difference between the two is found in how Josh Bell helps his team score more while Franmil and Naylor counted "selfish" stats by striking out much more often and walking much less often. Does that translate to more runs and more wins?.. I'd say yes.. Good things happen when the ball is put in play..

I think the DH part of this analysis is flawed because Bell is not going to take at-bats from Josh Naylor. I'm sure Naylor will get just as many at-bats as last year (449) and maybe more since he's further away from his injury.

Bell will take at-bats from Franmil and Miller (314 combined at-bats at DH). Miller had an unbelievably bad OPS of .461 at a DH. Like I said, Guardians' DH's combined to rank 29 out of 30 teams in OPS. Miller also had 268 at-bats at first base.

Looking at it by positions is tricky because Miller had at-bats at three different positions (not counting 13 AB's at 3rd base and DH). But basically Miller and Reyes combined for 687 AB's last year and that number will be zero this year. Those AB's will mostly be taken by Bell with some help from probably Arias and Freeman.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I was reading an analysis of Oscar Gonzalez which revealed he had the second highest swing percentage in the majors and also the second highest chase percentage. He was an extremely aggressive swinger as a rookie, but despite chasing more bad pitches than any player except one, he hit .296/.789, indicating he has tremendous bat-to-ball skills. His maximum exit velocity was in the 91st percentile, so less than 10% of hitters ever hit a ball harder than Oscar last year.

I suppose this could go either way. Pitchers, now well aware that he's an extreme free swinger, could toy with him this year with teasers off the zone. Or, Oscar could develop juuust a little more plate discipline and cut down his chase rate by 10% or so, which could drive his BA and OPS over .300 and .800, respectively.

What I love about Oscar is that the last 30 days of the season, covering 121 AB's, he hit .322/.877, indicating that pitchers didn't exactly figure out how to get him out as the season went along. If anything, he started figuring them out.

He also had a walk-off home run in the 15th against Tampa and a walk-off single against the Yankees, both in the playoffs. The moment was not too big for him.

One thing that concerns me is his batting average with runners on was 80 points lower than his average with nobody on base (.333 versus .253). My guess is he tries too hard to drive in runs and chases more bad pitches with runners on. If he can learn to be more patient at the plate, especially with runners on, he could be a .300/.850 guy with speed on the bases and a gun in right field.

 

[Gson]

Agreed... trying to coalesce player position changes to at bats to an entirely subdivided group of pitchers and umpires to arrive at differentiated hitting values for groups of hitters requires a Cray Supercomputer.. In fewer words: of course the analysis is flawed.. but it's what we have for comparison.. Applying confidence levels and odds would make a coin toss seem ever so slightly more certain with some of this analysis..

SpongeBob and his clutch hitting and overall hitting was a phenom.. the end..