On paper we should produce more runs since we should have more production with the bat at DH and C... That was really the point trying to be conveyed
Replacing three key roles.. Considering the DH and C roles alone may be one shy of what is truly going to determine if the Guardians can produce more runs versus and prevent more runs from the opponents scoring. The inclusion of the utility infielders that were trotted out regularly have to be considered as being replaced as well. That two member deep dark hole are both gonzo.. So, three spots being replaced with one savvy veteran and two fairly green rookies? This is the plan to score more and prevent more?.. really?..
Let's look.. If the assumption is that Josh Bell is going to somehow supercharge the offense.. here is what he did last year (and assume that he can duplicate the overall results) versus who was here:
DH Production: In approximately 550 +/- AB's
In: Josh Bell: ................................0.267 BA.....17 HR's.....71 RBI's....100 K's.....81 BB's
Out: Fran(wind)mil/Naylor.....0.234 BA.....21 HR's.....77 RBI's....148 K's.....36 BB's
Note: As you can see.. the difference between the two is found in how Josh Bell helps his team score more while Franmil and Naylor counted "selfish" stats by striking out much more often and walking much less often. Does that translate to more runs and more wins?.. I'd say yes.. Good things happen when the ball is put in play..
Utility Infield production.. Let's look.. If the assumption is that with Owen Miller being gone and Ernie Clement now bouncing around in more than one major league minor league system.. the guys the Guardians have retained with the idea they are going to somehow supercharge the offense..is a question.. Well, faith is needed.. Here is what they did last year with the Guardians adjusted for about 575 AB's between two guys:
Utility Infield Production: In approximately 575 +/- AB's <projected.
In: Arias & Freeman: ................................0.226 BA..... 6 HR's.....45 RBI's....149 K's.....66 BB's
Out: Miller & Ernie: ..................................0.231 BA..... 6 HR's.....77 RBI's....148 K's.....36 BB's
Note: Clearly, the SSS for this pair of youngsters is way too small to say anything with any level of certainty or confidence that the Guardians are going to score a whole bunch more runs, &, with it, win more games.. The only advantage in this small sampling that rings true is Arias and Freeman are going to get on base slightly more often. This isn't what ya'all wanted to hear? FWIW, I don't believe Arias is going to hit at a sub .200 level nor will Freeman hit as poorly as he did in his few chances.. So, there's hope.. without a lot of statistical proof to support it..
Are we having fun yet?..
Lastly on the list is the Catching situation.. We'll use Zunino's production from 2021 as his 2022 season was a disaster or disappointment due to injury..
Catching Production: In approximately 475 +/- AB's <projected.
In: Zunino & Naylor: .....................................0.211 BA.....46 HR's.....87 RBI's....184 K's.....55 BB's
Out: Hedges & Maile: ..................................0.185 BA.....10 HR's.....47 RBI's....132 K's.....44 BB's
Note: Clearly, the SSS for the position of catcher coupled with almost no historical record of production to speak of from young Nayler.. & it's way too uncertain to say anything with any level of confidence that the Guardians are much better off.. These numbers do suggest that if Zunino comes back to be anywhere close (80 %??) to his 2021 season, then the Guardians are going to score a whole bunch more runs, &, with it, win more games.. Yet to be seen...
In summary.. these three areas, while appearing to be strongly address the needs of the club going forward, they may end being nothing more than marginal replacements at worst. The changes do portend a pretty good chance we'll see more run production..
Thoughts?..