2013 NFL Free Agency: Browns

[AZ_]

Not to align myself with Grossi, but Grimes has to be considered a fringe player coming off an Achilles.

 

[MD13]

Not to align myself with Grossi, but Grimes has to be considered a fringe player coming off an Achilles.

Does Grossi have any sources at this point? We know about his feud with Lombardi, so it's unlikely he's even talking to anyone high up in our front office. At this point he's just being a troll; I'll be the first to admit I'm not a fan at all of Lombardi, but I don't think any of the signings so far have been particularly egregious.

 

[Real Deal]

I really dislike Grossi. He's just a downer, a true pessimist. He might think that he's just speaking the truth but in reality, what the fuck is wrong with a little of emotion, positive emotion. We'll win a championship someday and he'd immediately say something like well back to sucking for all eternity.

 

[AZ_]

Does Grossi have any sources at this point? We know about his feud with Lombardi, so it's unlikely he's even talking to anyone high up in our front office. At this point he's just being a troll; I'll be the first to admit I'm not a fan at all of Lombardi, but I don't think any of the signings so far have been particularly egregious.

No, he absolutely does not have sources.

It's a just an old guy who's been around a while. Aside from that his schtick is just sad.

 

[Soda]

No, he absolutely does not have sources.

It's a just an old guy who's been around a while. Aside from that his schtick is just sad.

I'm calling bs here. I'm not a huge Grossi fan either, but we already know he talks regularly with Ozzie and Jim Brown. He may (probably) have run out of sources inside the Browns, but to say he doesn't have sources is foolish. Anytime you spend 20+ years in an industry, you're going to have a decent network. Plus, which local beat writer has sources inside Berea at this point?

 

[JMcCurry08]

I'm calling bs here. I'm not a huge Grossi fan either, but we already know he talks regularly with Ozzie and Jim Brown. He may (probably) have run out of sources inside the Browns, but to say he doesn't have sources is foolish. Anytime you spend 20+ years in an industry, you're going to have a decent network. Plus, which local beat writer has sources inside Berea at this point?

Keith Britton from 92.3 seems to have pretty good sources

 

[caf]

In this situation where you have a regime change and a front office overhaul, I think it would be wise to try to schedule a lunch with anyone from the front office. Obviously the higher up the better, but just getting your foot in the door is a good start.

Then you can discuss the 'plan'. What type of players are they looking for? Personality wise, athletic wise, etc. Nothing too divulging though. Just enough to get a general all around idea. Understand where they are coming from instead of assuming it.

I've tutored quite a bit of class colleges. I am more willing to help those who show an interest in my career, as well as talking about how I got here and my plans for the future. The people that come to me expecting my help and services are usually the people I ignore. Common courtesy goes a long way.

Lets face it, beat writers (in Cleveland at least) are very bias. Understanding the nuances of the teams philosphy will allow you to mix your opinions with the opinions of the organization. This inherently presents the information in a kinder light.

 

[Soar]

Grossi is still butt hurt from being fired by the Plain Dealer. Now he just openly disagrees with mainstream opinion to get attention.

 

[ajz20]

AT this point I would just prefer to take the best TE on the board in the third round then sign a journey men. We already signed a blocking TE. Adding another with poor hands, seems contrary to this offense. If Davis is very cheap, then I guess it is not that big of a deal, unless we decide not to draft one. In a perfect world I would love to move down and pick up a second rounder and feel confident that one of the top 5 TE's will sill be on the board.Fred Davis has yet to offically go back to DC, so maybe we could make one last call and persuade him to rethink his decision.

The kid from Cincy, is not explosive vertically, but he has great hands is a good blocker and seems to have a knack for getting open.
Escobar looks like a pure pass catcher, but not much of a blocker. Mcdonald and Reed look a bit under sized for the typical Chud offense.
The top 2 TE's from ND and Stanford could be options if we trade down.
The thing is, I doubt many teams would be interested in trading up to 6, unless Millner slips. If he does, I would not want to pass that option up. I honestly think for Cud's offense to really take off, we need great production for the TE position, adding Kellen Davis is just not enough. I know some of you think Cameron is going to have a breakout year, but I think that is a bit of a pipe dream until he shows better technique and football IQ. Not every great leaper and basketball player turns into the next Antonio Gates. If it were that easy there would be 30 Antonio Gates and Grahm's (from New Orleans) in this league.

 

[Phills14]

Not to align myself with Grossi, but Grimes has to be considered a fringe player coming off an Achilles.

I have to admit, I don't know much about Grimes. I know he's an above average player. I know ESPN rates him very highly (for what that's worth) but beyond that I don't really have an educated opinion. After looking into him and reading this below, I will agree with Grossi on his skepticism. At least because of the injury not because he's 30. Having older players isn't a bad thing as long as you pay them accordingly. Paying 30+ year olds like they were 25 is where I have a problem. Also, 30 year old guys aren't old, 33 and above I consider getting too old.

Click the link to see the graphs and charts he provides. They won't transfer well here.
http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2013/3...gent-target-brent-grimes-hercules-or-achilles

As many of us know by now, defensive back and NFL free agent Brent Grimes was in Cleveland yesterday for a visit and was presumably discussing a contract with our front office brass. Chris covered the story yesterday in his piece, Browns Host Brent Grimes for a Visit. This news was first broken by Alex Marvez over at FoxSports and has once again created a buzz around the Browns activity in free agency this year:

That buzz reverberated throughout the entire city of Cleveland. Below is a snapshot of the top, current Twitter trends for Cleveland, Ohio. You can see Brent Grimes near the center of the map, which is courtesy of trendmap.com:

So in this piece I hope to present a thoughtful and informative argument that quantifies what it could mean to the Browns if we sign Brent Grimes. Outside of the Achilles tear that sent Brent Grimes to IR last season, he has been a stud at the corner. But as I will explain, the nature of Achilles tears and NFL players is a dynamic piece of science. I will present some facts from a recent Duke University study and apply these facts and findings to expected returns for Grimes in the future. I will admit the validity of my approach may be questioned, but I feel it helps create a context for performance expectation and could help Browns' fans glean what Banner and Lombardi are thinking when considering Grimes and his potential fit with the team.

To start things off, check out the video clip below. While I don’t advocate watching highlight films because they don’t portray the players every down tendencies, it’s hard to showcase anything aside from highlights given the NFL’s "big brother" propensity to wipe-out most original NFL film on youtube. The good news for my reputation (and for you) is that this video is not what I’m hanging my argument on:

Thanks to a new membership over at ProFootballFocus, I will be able to start including analytic data to help quantify what it is we see or feel about a player. So let's take a look at Brent Grimes:

As you can see, Grimes was extremely productive and dependable for the entire 2010 and 2011 season. Grimes’ amassed 11 interceptions during both the 2009 and 2010 seasons and was actually an alternative selection for the Pro Bowl in 2010. The Falcons added Asante Samuel last off-season, 2012, and then franchised Grimes. But it was in the season opener when Grimes’ went down with a torn Achilles in September.

If healthy, Grimes is undoubtedly one of the best available free agent defensive backs. He could help fill a hole on the Browns roster that is badly in need of an upgrade and the thought of Haden and Grimes together is not a bad one.

So what’s been the hold up?

We have the money.

We have the need.

He was in the building.

Well, in March 2010, four orthopedic doctors at Duke University published a study that detailed the careers of NFL players after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon between the years of 1997 and 2002. These doctors concluded that only about two-thirds of NFL players suffering said injury ever returned to the field.

In fact, their study found that of the 31 players who tore their Achilles tendons during that time frame, 21 came back after the injury. Those players took an average of 11 months recover and get back on the field. Of the players that returned, nearly all of them saw a decrease in the number of games they played as well as a decline in their production in the three seasons following their return to the field.

Khalid Shirzad, one of the specialists who contributed to the study, said the average number of games played by the 21 players slid from 11.7 per year before the injury to 6.2.

Shirzad said the data collected also showed that the players' "power ratings" — what the researchers defined as a statistical measure of performance, ranging from passing and rushing yards for an offensive player to tackles and interceptions for a defensive player — decreased nearly 50 percent.

Specifically, there was a reduction of 95%, 87%, and 64% in power rating for linebackers, cornerbacks, and defensive tackles, respectively. There was also a reduction of 88%, 83%, and 78% in power rankings for wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends, respectively:


The Duke study suggests that defensive backs saw a power ranking drop of 87% so if we hypothetically apply the expected decrease in production to the ProFootballFocus Statistics shown above from 2010 - 2011, then we would see adjusted ratings for Brent Grimes as follows:


What I’m trying to portray is that even though (when healthy) Grimes has been overwhelmingly productive, his Achilles injury will most likely change the player we see on the field in the future. If the statistics in the Duke University study are extrapolated and applied to Grimes’ best performing years, we can see a projection of what his adjusted performance will be moving forward. With that being said, let’s compare Grimes' numbers from ProFootballFocus with three other players still on the free agency that we may be considering.

These players may present an alternative to Grimes for the Browns. While their original numbers aren't near as strong as Grimes', they could be deceptively more competitive if you believe Grimes' Achilles injury will diminish his ability as much as the Duke study suggests.

In summary, when I consider the comparative performance data and the data pertaining to Achilles injuries / players returning from them, this makes me view Grimes' fit in Cleveland with a much more tempered expectation. I hope this type of analytic data coupled with firm medical research helps fans understand - presumably - one of the big reasons why Grimes hasn't been signed in Miami and left Cleveland yesterday without an official offer .

So what do we do Browns fans? Do we take a chance that Brent will beat the odds, beat the statistics, and return to prior form? Afterall, Terrell Suggs seemed to be able to do so. Or do we move on and start to pursue the likes of Munnerlyn, Hall or even Rhodes?

Bottom line, Grimes is a 5'10 cornerback who relied on technique and speed to be a pro bowl level CB. An Achilles injury is pretty devastating physically to a guy like him who doesn't have the size to compensate. He's a major risk and one that should be paid as one instead of a pro bowl level player.

 

[tedginnjr]

I'm calling bs here. I'm not a huge Grossi fan either, but we already know he talks regularly with Ozzie and Jim Brown. He may (probably) have run out of sources inside the Browns, but to say he doesn't have sources is foolish. Anytime you spend 20+ years in an industry, you're going to have a decent network. Plus, which local beat writer has sources inside Berea at this point?

When's the last time he broke a story?

 

[JMcCurry08]

Anything big ever happen at the owner meetings?

 

[Scholar]

I have to admit, I don't know much about Grimes. I know he's an above average player. I know ESPN rates him very highly (for what that's worth) but beyond that I don't really have an educated opinion. After looking into him and reading this below, I will agree with Grossi on his skepticism. At least because of the injury not because he's 30. Having older players isn't a bad thing as long as you pay them accordingly. Paying 30+ year olds like they were 25 is where I have a problem. Also, 30 year old guys aren't old, 33 and above I consider getting too old.

Why has it become customary for people to use the age a player will be instead of the age the player is? Grimes is 29. He'll be 29 until the middle of this Summer. Yes, he'll be 30 before the season starts. But, I am getting sick of the nonsensical twisting of age. Choosing to "round up" in an attempt at adding more credence to one's argument. It's pretenses. Might as well refer to Grossi as a dawdling senile 90 year old never been reporter. It certainly has just as much credence, maybe more so. :chuckles:

 

[AZ_]

Why has it become customary for people to use the age a player will be instead of the age the player is? Grimes is 29. He'll be 29 until the middle of this Summer. Yes, he'll be 30 before the season starts. But, I am getting sick of the nonsensical twisting of age. Choosing to "round up" in an attempt at adding more credence to one's argument. It's pretenses. Might as well refer to Grossi as a dawdling senile 90 year old never been reporter. It certainly has just as much credence, maybe more so. :chuckles:

Because they don't play games in the middle of summer?

 

[Scholar]

Because they don't play games in the middle of summer?

It's simply lying. When they turn that age, then use it. Not before. Like I said, it is a falsehood. You are also one of the people around here that is guilty of it. I've also seen people claim certain players around here were two years older then they are.