Cedi Osman Goodbye & Good Luck

[spydy13]

Both you and spydy have good points, but counterpoint:

The cost to acquire and operate a foreign team would be a tiny fraction of the cost to operate (from what I could find online, most teams have total operating budgets <$20M). Even if you ran at a loss, it would about equal a backup point guard.

The age limit is only for the NBA draft. Most Euro teams have training squads with kids as young as 14. That gives you five years to coach a kid up your way and see if he's got what it takes with American style play and coaches that know your systems. You'd have day to day contact and improve your scouting knowledge tremendously.

If you're shady, you hold some of these guys out of competition to keep them under the radar. If you're slightly less shady, you sign them to contracts with huge buyouts, hoping that scares off other teams. If not, you make money selling them off to a team that drafts them.

Hell, you don't even have to buy the team - forge strategic alliances with certain teams. Hold half of training camp in Europe, scrimmage your teams (and use that as free scouting), build your brand internationally.

To me, it seems like the NBA is looking at international players the same way they look at players in the states - let colleges and AAU develop players (for free). The CBA has pretty much locked that avenue up.

Why not try to exploit a weakness - take the Moneyball approach. The A's didn't just sign guys with high on-base percentages because they're the best ballplayers, they signed them because those types of players were undervalued by the market.

Europe is (mostly) outside of the rules for now. They don't get the same coaching, they don't get the same training, they don't play the same style. Just seems to me a small investment by someone who's not afraid to be the first to move could pay huge dividends for a long time to come.

It's certainly an interesting idea, but that's a lot of costs for the most likely outcome of selling that player to another team (which doesn't even happen now since most teams just wait for a player's buyout to pass).

Investing in and expanding the d-league is the next logical step in player development, but even with that over a third of the teams haven't taken the plunge.

 

[westsidebob]

It's certainly an interesting idea, but that's a lot of costs for the most likely outcome of selling that player to another team (which doesn't even happen now since most teams just wait for a player's buyout to pass).

Investing in and expanding the d-league is the next logical step in player development, but even with that over a third of the teams haven't taken the plunge.

What's the costs? Most teams in Europe have total operating budgets <$20M per year. Assume zero revenue and that's not even the luxury tax on Rich Paul's wet dream.

Lose $5m a year and find even one guy every 3-4 years who slips under the radar of every other NBA team but you have a total dossier on - is that a good investment?

The problem with the D-league is that the players aren't under team control. They're not paid by the team, they can be called up by anyone. Gives teams no inherent reason to have them other than for training grounds for 1-2 players per year who shuttle back and forth from the big club.

If we wanna talk about fixing the D-league, that's even more off-topic, but here's my pitch. Make each team own one, or at least have an affliate agreement. Expand the draft to 4 rounds, lower the draft age to 18 - screw the NCAA. Players in rounds 3-4 sign split contracts similar to MLB - they get paid less if they're assigned to a D-league team. Split contracts would last until the player was 21, then be an NBA rookie scale contract to 25 (same as a 4 year contract to a 21 year old college senior - ok, throw a bone to the NCAA, but give NBA teams reason to invest in a raw kid). Salaries still paid by the NBA and every player could be "called up" by any other team BUT the team he plays for has right of first refusal to put him on their active roster (say 12-24 hours). This would encourage the parent clubs to run their D-league teams with a similar philosophy and culture.

Essentially the D-league becomes the NBA equivalent of the NFL's practice squad - they just don't practice with the team, except for training camp.

But this is why I'm not the Commish.......

 

[I'mWithDan]

Those teams aren't just lucky though. They have built quality organizations that can rebuild on the fly. Both also had their years in the wilderness where they didn't win titles as well, but they eventually put everything together again to win, and they did it by not just trying to go all in for one or two years. Which isn't to say that what they do isn't incredibly hard, but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't strive to emulate their model.

Those runs happened on the heels of (young) generationally great players being acquired though, which is my point. Both the Spurs and the Pats went through that spectrum with an entire career (start to finish) with their key players (Duncan / Brady).

If LeBron were 26 and not 30, my argument would be way different but he's not like a QB in football (Brady) where his excellence will likely extend way in to his late 30's. There should be far more urgency in the short term, when the miles start to pile up and the burden starts to shift to KI and Love. Both of whom have proven nothing as it pertains to carrying a winning team (sans an MVP like LeBron).

My comment on Cedi's potential was more a value assessment, as I think any player outside the top 10 of their respective position is reasonably easy to acquire, wether it be free agency or a trade. If the FO views him as a special prospect, by all means hang on to him but a rotational piece that we're going to wait anywhere from 3-5 years on doesn't do a whole lot for me when I see LeBron's odometer approaching 1,000 games played. I'd rather take back a short term asset that is going to help lengthen LeBron's career vs. waiting on a young unknown guy we pray can help carry the burden when LBJ is past his prime.

I get the sentiment on wanting to be the Spurs, I just think we missed that window (when LeBron left). Now I'd prefer we don't miss this next one.

 

[spydy13]

Those runs happened on the heels of (young) generationally great players being acquired though, which is my point. Both the Spurs and the Pats went through that spectrum with an entire career (start to finish) with their key players (Duncan / Brady).

If LeBron were 26 and not 30, my argument would be way different but he's not like a QB in football (Brady) where his excellence will likely extend way in to his late 30's. There should be far more urgency in the short term, when the miles start to pile up and the burden starts to shift to KI and Love. Both of whom have proven nothing as it pertains to carrying a winning team (sans an MVP like LeBron).

My comment on Cedi's potential was more a value assessment, as I think any player outside the top 10 of their respective position is reasonably easy to acquire, wether it be free agency or a trade. If the FO views him as a special prospect, by all means hang on to him but a rotational piece that we're going to wait anywhere from 3-5 years on doesn't do a whole lot for me when I see LeBron's odometer approaching 1,000 games played. I'd rather take back a short term asset that is going to help lengthen LeBron's career vs. waiting on a young unknown guy we pray can help carry the burden when LBJ is past his prime.

I get the sentiment on wanting to be the Spurs, I just think we missed that window (when LeBron left). Now I'd prefer we don't miss this next one.

Duncan won a title when he was around 30 in 2007 and then another in 2014 when he was 37/38. We didn't win earlier titles when Lebron was here the first go around like Duncan did, but we're in line to do the other stuff. Imo, the "all in" mentality for the next couple years is an overreaction to last year when we would have won the title with a healthy roster.

Also, idk where shump, jr, and Moz would rank at their positions but they took luck and a decent cost to get. All we got in FA this was Mo and RJ and we were lucky that Mo wanted to come back or else we would have had to settle for another RJ vet ring chaser type of addition. The point being it is not as easy as you think to get rotation players, so if the FO believes that Osman could be one of those and for awhile then it makes more sense to me then cashing in on him in the next two years.

 

[spydy13]

What's the costs? Most teams in Europe have total operating budgets <$20M per year. Assume zero revenue and that's not even the luxury tax on Rich Paul's wet dream.

Lose $5m a year and find even one guy every 3-4 years who slips under the radar of every other NBA team but you have a total dossier on - is that a good investment?

The problem with the D-league is that the players aren't under team control. They're not paid by the team, they can be called up by anyone. Gives teams no inherent reason to have them other than for training grounds for 1-2 players per year who shuttle back and forth from the big club.

If we wanna talk about fixing the D-league, that's even more off-topic, but here's my pitch. Make each team own one, or at least have an affliate agreement. Expand the draft to 4 rounds, lower the draft age to 18 - screw the NCAA. Players in rounds 3-4 sign split contracts similar to MLB - they get paid less if they're assigned to a D-league team. Split contracts would last until the player was 21, then be an NBA rookie scale contract to 25 (same as a 4 year contract to a 21 year old college senior - ok, throw a bone to the NCAA, but give NBA teams reason to invest in a raw kid). Salaries still paid by the NBA and every player could be "called up" by any other team BUT the team he plays for has right of first refusal to put him on their active roster (say 12-24 hours). This would encourage the parent clubs to run their D-league teams with a similar philosophy and culture.

Essentially the D-league becomes the NBA equivalent of the NFL's practice squad - they just don't practice with the team, except for training camp.

But this is why I'm not the Commish.......

$20M operating budget seems incredibly low. I could see players' salaries fitting into that, but then you have stadium costs, costs for employees to work in those stadiums, travel costs, food, etc.

Beside that though, if an NBA team were to own a team over there I'm pretty sure other NBA teams would be keeping an eye on what they were doing and how their players were progressing so they would know if they should do it too.

I like you're idea about the d-league though. I've long felt that the NBA and NFL should stop relying on colleges to develop their players just because it's cheaper. The whole unveils its sports system is pretty much non-existent in Europe because professional teams have their own academy systems to develop talent under their watchful eye.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Duncan won a title when he was around 30 in 2007 and then another in 2014 when he was 37/38. We didn't win earlier titles when Lebron was here the first go around like Duncan did, but we're in line to do the other stuff. Imo, the "all in" mentality for the next couple years is an overreaction to last year when we would have won the title with a healthy roster.

Also, idk where shump, jr, and Moz would rank at their positions but they took luck and a decent cost to get. All we got in FA this was Mo and RJ and we were lucky that Mo wanted to come back or else we would have had to settle for another RJ vet ring chaser type of addition. The point being it is not as easy as you think to get rotation players, so if the FO believes that Osman could be one of those and for awhile then it makes more sense to me then cashing in on him in the next two years.

Do you truly think LeBron will be as good as Duncan is at 37/38? Or even still playing for that matter? They've been so fortunate (landing Duncan when Robinson got injured, then having Duncan defy all the laws of aging, having Parker and Ginobilli turn in to All-Star caliber players and Leonard blossoming in to one of the best young players in the league) that it's not realistic to try to replicate what they have done. That is what I am arguing.

You need to just focus on the short term and any long term planning (beyond keep the core, which we are doing) is just a side effect. The fact that we "would have won the title with a healthy roster" makes me MORE inclined to leverage everything for the short term because the playoffs last season underscored how quickly a championship opportunity can be taken away from you.

What if we had one more quality player on our bench when all those injuries happened? Would it have been enough to get us over the hump? I would argue it could have been. We were up 2-1 in the series, playing game 4 at home. We entered the 3rd quarter down by 6 in that game and then got blown out because we had nothing left. In that series Shump and JR gave us next to nothing. Having even one more player who could have reliably scored 10-12 points a game could have won the series. That's all I'm arguing. I'd rather have the guy that could have helped us win the title last year (on our bench), then a guy that MIGHT turn in to a player who can contribute on a contending team in 3-4 years. I don't think it's wrong to hold on to Cedi but if an opportunity presented itself to improve the roster, I would do it knowing that we're close to what is the downward arc of LBJ's career.

 

[spydy13]

Do you truly think LeBron will be as good as Duncan is at 37/38?

Why not? He's one of the greatest players ever, just like Duncan. And he's going to have his minutes reduced when he hits 30, just like Duncan.

Or even still playing for that matter?

That's a much different question. I could easily see LeBron retiring around 34-35 because he has so many other interests outside of basketball, but I could also see him riding it out for as long as he's still able to do it and we still have a competitive team around him.

They've been so fortunate (landing Duncan when Robinson got injured, then having Duncan defy all the laws of aging, having Parker and Ginobilli turn in to All-Star caliber players and Leonard blossoming in to one of the best young players in the league) that it's not realistic to try to replicate what they have done.

We've also been incredibly fortunate to have one of the greatest players ever be born down the road for us, be able to draft him, and then have him want to come back after he left. We were also fortunate to get Kyrie, who is easily one of the best point guards in the league, just like Parker was in his prime. We were even more fortunate to use the back to back number 1 picks we lucked into to get one of the best PFs in the league, who was willing to come here because LeBron came back, and by the way is just as good of a third guy as Manu. The point being that we've been pretty damn lucky ourselves, especially since bumbling moves by the FO in the past haven't hurt us too much.

You need to just focus on the short term and any long term planning (beyond keep the core, which we are doing) is just a side effect.

But doing so potentially leaves you with an old roster when LeBron can do less and less, setting you up to not be competitive and make it even more likely that LeBron walks away early. I mean Griff has stated that he wants to get younger on the bench because he saw last year that aging vets are most likely going to let you down when it matters.

What if we had one more quality player on our bench when all those injuries happened? Would it have been enough to get us over the hump? I would argue it could have been. We were up 2-1 in the series, playing game 4 at home. We entered the 3rd quarter down by 6 in that game and then got blown out because we had nothing left. In that series Shump and JR gave us next to nothing. Having even one more player who could have reliably scored 10-12 points a game could have won the series. That's all I'm arguing. I'd rather have the guy that could have helped us win the title last year (on our bench), then a guy that MIGHT turn in to a player who can contribute on a contending team in 3-4 years. I don't think it's wrong to hold on to Cedi but if an opportunity presented itself to improve the roster, I would do it knowing that we're close to what is the downward arc of LBJ's career.

Shump and JR are really quality players, and even they crumbled when asked to do too much. We needed our star players to take the load off them and LeBron. We aren't getting another star player for Osman and late first round picks. We are getting a guy that's probably 28-32, and is what he is. I'd rather take a shot that Osman will grow into something more than a guy that we are already pretty confident can contribute highly on the defensive end.

And by the way, we already did get that one extra player in Mo. Hopefully RJ can give us more than Mike Miller did last post season as well. So we should already be on our way to being better equipped for another worst case scenario.

But I don't want to keep going round and round on this issue, since it's not in our hands. We'll see what the FO thinks of Osman moving forward.

 

[Stark]

If LeBron doesn't suffer any kind of injury that hinders him for the rest of his career, and he keeps his minutes around the 33-35 range the next year or so, and closer to 28-30 after that, he could be extremely lethal until he is 40.

 

[Frank Reynolds]

If LeBron doesn't suffer any kind of injury that hinders him for the rest of his career, and he keeps his minutes around the 33-35 range the next year or so, and closer to 28-30 after that, he could be extremely lethal until he is 40.

He's always going to be 6-8, so he can see over top of the defense. His passing skills will never diminish, they will probably increase. He'll always be able to shoot, play angles etc.

LeBron is an enormous gift to Cleveland. We ought to preserve him for as long as humanly possible. There has been a ton of miles put on his body thus far, and if we just start scaling his minutes back; his career longevity improves.

 

[Pioneer10]

Was Cedi on Pelton's Eurobasket Top 10 prospect list? I don't have insider

 

[Omar The Horse]

From ESPN.....

Cedi really wants to play with LeBron. Shocker.


Turkey's Osman impresses
Looking a little further ahead, it was impressive the way Turkey's small forward Cedi Osman wasn't overwhelmed by getting handed a regular start at the age of 20. He averaged 12.7 points, just a year removed becoming the MVP of the European Under-20 Championship.

With his NBA rights belonging to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Osman is still a work in progress.

"Osman's a good long-term prospect," ESPN's international analyst Fran Fraschilla said. "He won't really be physically mature for another three or four more years. But he's 6-foot-8 and can play three perimeter positions."

Turkey ended up missing the quarterfinals, but Osman, who told ESPN.com he likens his game to Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard, soaked up the opportunities.

"I learned a lot of things here in this tournament," he said. "I think I can improve how I run the pick and roll. Before, I did it. But here, I got more experience of it."

Cleveland will be happy to let him season a little more overseas where he remains under contract at Turkish League power Efes Istanbul. But Osman is already thinking about the chance to link up with LeBron James.

"It will be a great day for me," he said. "That's my dream, to play with him. I think I will be the happiest man in the world if I do that. During the playoffs, I watched all their games. I liked what I saw."

 

[macbdog]

There is no way that the NBA sees room for a 30 team minor league. Let's just be blunt here: NBDL is failing because it can't pay to draw legit talent. They get the guys who are either desperate to stay stateside or simply can't go overseas. Hell, for example Marshall Henderson played in Iraq instead of going D League. The D league teams are paying salaries that measure up with their revenues. If you want to make it legit, the NBA team is going to have to kick in 10-12 million to be able to draw legit talents away from far more lucrative foreign contracts. You honestly think the same league- the one that has the gall during the Finals to point out that despite record revenues some teams are still too big of fuck ups to be in the black, as if this should garner sympathy for the league- is really gonna pony up that kind of change to support a legit D league? Hell no. They will try to get it taken from the players cut. And is there any reason for the union to pay for it? Hell no, because they shouldn't have to be paying for player development.

The CBA showed years ago that there is a small market for minor league basketball in America... Just not 30 teams worth. If the goal is an actual talent laden league where the competition is good enough to craft NBA players, it is going to take salary demands that the NBA is not going to pony up for.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

There is no way that the NBA sees room for a 30 team minor league. Let's just be blunt here: NBDL is failing because it can't pay to draw legit talent. They get the guys who are either desperate to stay stateside or simply can't go overseas. Hell, for example Marshall Henderson played in Iraq instead of going D League. The D league teams are paying salaries that measure up with their revenues. If you want to make it legit, the NBA team is going to have to kick in 10-12 million to be able to draw legit talents away from far more lucrative foreign contracts. You honestly think the same league- the one that has the gall during the Finals to point out that despite record revenues some teams are still too big of fuck ups to be in the black, as if this should garner sympathy for the league- is really gonna pony up that kind of change to support a legit D league? Hell no. They will try to get it taken from the players cut. And is there any reason for the union to pay for it? Hell no, because they shouldn't have to be paying for player development.

The CBA showed years ago that there is a small market for minor league basketball in America... Just not 30 teams worth. If the goal is an actual talent laden league where the competition is good enough to craft NBA players, it is going to take salary demands that the NBA is not going to pony up for.

I'm not at all sure that Euros and the Euroleague itself would just sit by if NBA owners started buying Euroleague teams and treating them as farm teams. In fact, I'd guess that there's no way they'd let that happen. These teams are national teams in which a lot of national pride, etc. Is invested.

 

[macbdog]

I'm not at all sure that Euros and the Euroleague itself would just sit by if NBA owners started buying Euroleague teams and treating them as farm teams. In fact, I'd guess that there's no way they'd let that happen. These teams are national teams in which a lot of national pride, etc. Is invested.

I need you to clarify, because I never said to 'buy' Euroleague teams. Are you referring to the NBA going wholesale after their rosters to fill the D-League? If that is your point, that I could see. But then again, the NBA would still be wise to institute an age restriction on the D-League, thus ensuring that the Euroleagues would still have their fill of late twenties/early thirties Trajan Langdon types to boost their leagues. I could see FIFA being cool with this. And I do think that numerous Euro youngsters would still choose, if the money is even, to stay home and play rather than jump to America just to play in the minor league. These would be more hurdles to staffing an entire 30-team minor league.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I need you to clarify, because I never said to 'buy' Euroleague teams. Are you referring to the NBA going wholesale after their rosters to fill the D-League? If that is your point, that I could see. But then again, the NBA would still be wise to institute an age restriction on the D-League, thus ensuring that the Euroleagues would still have their fill of late twenties/early thirties Trajan Langdon types to boost their leagues. I could see FIFA being cool with this. And I do think that numerous Euro youngsters would still choose, if the money is even, to stay home and play rather than jump to America just to play in the minor league. These would be more hurdles to staffing an entire 30-team minor league.

My mistake - I thought you were supporting @westsidebob and his idea for NBA teams to buy Euro franchises, as opposed to supporting a true minor league here in the U.S.

I agree that the latter wouldn't work, and also think the Euros wouldn't let us hijack their league.