Love/Wiggins Trade Revisited

[Steve_424]

You're right.. But Kevin Love is injured to the point where it's questionable if he should even be on the floor. He's obviously in serious pain, every game.

I haven't heard anyone close to the team - reporters, our insiders, etc - say he is injured enough where it's questionable if he should even be playing.

 

[Goldin Brown]

I think the Cavs are going to have to win a championship to justify this trade. This dude Wiggins is going to be a beast. We will probably end up regretting this trade, but a championship will definitely make me feel better about it.

 

[bobcat22]

Guys, let me educate you again on why this trade had to happen. David Blatt came in when he was hired and when Griff asked him what he needed for his offense to be successful, his first answer was a stretch 4. Kevin Love is the BEST stretch 4 in basketball, despite how he's shooting this year from 3. He's the only player with a great 3 point shot that is a monster on the boards. Had we kept Wiggins, him and Waiters would have been battling for the 2 guard spot. The trade for JR and Iman would have never happened. We would have had to give up the Miami and Memphis pick to Denver to get Mozzy still.

Our frontline without Mozzy would have been:

C: Andy
PF: Tristan, Bennett

Bennett can't even get minutes on an 8 win Minnesota team and he would have been our backup 4. Tristan would have been our starting PF. Then Andy goes down. Now what?

Oh and by the way, Marion hadn't decided to come here until the Love trade happened. That's what sealed his decision. So that means LeBron is backed up by a rookie and so is Waiters.

Not to mention, Wiggins development would have been very slow being a 3rd option offensively. That roster as constructed had absolutely no chance of succeeding. You do realize this right?

 

[gourimoko]

I haven't heard anyone close to the team - reporters, our insiders, etc - say he is injured enough where it's questionable if he should even be playing.

????

---quote---

Kevin Love is dealing with a back injury that caused him to miss Cleveland's 126-121 win over the Clippers Friday. The Cavaliers star was back in the starting lineup on Monday vs. Chicago.

Continue for updates.

Love Starts vs. Bulls
Monday, Jan. 19
Despite some confusion surrounding Tristan Thompson being listed as the starting power forward tonight, Kevin Love did in fact start tonight's game against the Bulls confirms Rick Noland of the Elyria Chronicle-Telegram.

On Jan. 18, Chris Haynes of The Plain Dealer reported that Love practiced with the Cavaliers on Sunday and that the team listed him as questionable for Monday's game vs. Chicago.

Love Out vs. Clippers With Back Injury
Friday, Jan. 16
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Kevin Love haven't had the season anyone expected—thanks in large part to injuries constantly derailing the All-Star forward.

According to ESPN's Dave McMenamin, Love is dealing with another injury, this time to his back:





Love's transition to being one of multiple stars on a team instead of being "The Man," as he was in Minnesota, has had its rough patches. His scoring average went down from November to December, though his rebounds went up from 8.6 to 10.7 per game during that stretch, per Basketball-Reference.com.

However, Love stepped up when LeBron James was out with knee and back ailments over an eight-game stretch in late December and early January. One of his best games of the season came on January 2 againstCharlotte when he scored 27 points and grabbed five rebounds in the only game Cleveland won without LeBron.

Given how careful the Cavaliers have been in protecting LeBron this season, you can expect them to take a similar approach with Love. Cleveland head coach David Blatt admitted when it looked like Love suffered a knee injury against Charlotte that he's more on edge than usual, via The Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com):

"Every time I see somebody fall down or bend over to fix their shoelaces, I'm a little worried right now—I really am," Blatt said. "We're a little bit on eggshells as far as that stuff is concerned."

Love missed one game earlier in the year with back spasms. The Cavaliers can't afford to lose any of their major pieces for too long, especially with the Eastern Conference looking stronger at the top than expected. Cleveland is still capable of going on a long winning streak, but it needs to get healthy to do so.

--end quote--


Not sure if you're serious but, it's been mentioned repeatedly that Kevin Love needs time to heal, that he's playing injured, and that the Cavaliers are hoping he can make it to the ASG to get some rest.

We've talked about it on RCF for some time now, I didn't this was news.

 

[Jscc]

Methinks you never watched the guy play the game. George was an absolute beast... on both sides of the floor..

I don't doubt Paul George's talent. I also don't doubt that Paul George is the better defender than Kevin Love. He was.

However, I doubt Paul George being more important to his team and being the better offensive player than Kevin Love was unless you do some arbitrary projections that would've equally applied to Danny Granger.

 

[gourimoko]

Guys, let me educate you again on why this trade had to happen. David Blatt came in when he was hired and when Griff asked him what he needed for his offense to be successful, his first answer was a stretch 4. Kevin Love is the BEST stretch 4 in basketball, despite how he's shooting this year from 3. He's the only player with a great 3 point shot that is a monster on the boards. Had we kept Wiggins, him and Waiters would have been battling for the 2 guard spot. The trade for JR and Iman would have never happened. We would have had to give up the Miami and Memphis pick to Denver to get Mozzy still.

Our frontline without Mozzy would have been:

C: Andy
PF: Tristan, Bennett

Bennett can't even get minutes on an 8 win Minnesota team and he would have been our backup 4. Tristan would have been our starting PF. Then Andy goes down. Now what?

Oh and by the way, Marion hadn't decided to come here until the Love trade happened. That's what sealed his decision. So that means LeBron is backed up by a rookie and so is Waiters.

Not to mention, Wiggins development would have been very slow being a 3rd option offensively. That roster as constructed had absolutely no chance of succeeding. You do realize this right?

Bobcat, lots of logical problems here... But concisely,
1) You can't go back in time and say what trades would and wouldn't have happened... There's no reason that I can see that we would have had less of an ability to make trades; so I think that argument doesn't make sense.

2) Is LaMarcus Aldridge not a "Stretch 4?" Guys saying Love was better than LaMarcus Aldridge have obviously not watched either player play the game of basketball. You can't pick up the box score and start "educating" folks who've watched Kevin turn his back to opposing players he's responsible for guarding just to grab a rebound.

Love is not better, and has never been better, than LMA. He needs to learn to play defense.

--quote--
Research paper by Kirk Goldsberry and Eric Weiss, presented at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, concludes that Portland Trail Blazers All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge is near the top of the list when it comes to field goal percentage allowed by interior defenders.

Aldridge ranks No. 5 on a chart of field goal percentage allowed when he is within five feet of the basket, trailing only Indiana Pacers center Roy Hibbert, Milwaukee Bucks center Larry Sanders, Dallas Mavericks forward Elton Brand and Oklahoma City Thunder forward Serge Ibaka. The data was culled from 75,000 field goal attempts taken during the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons using video tracking data.

Here's the PDF of the full study, which explains the paper's first goal.

The objective of the first case study was to examine the ability of interior defenders to "protect the basket." This case study considered shot attempts that occurred when there was an interior defender within 5 feet of the basket and was designed to measure two aspects of point prevention: the ability to prevent shots near the basket, and the ability to reduce the shooting efficiency of opponents near the basket. We evaluated shooting patterns using spatial splits. As a means to characterize the opponents' shooting tendencies, we calculated both the frequency and efficiency of shooting in each zone, but placed primary emphasis on close range shooting.

Click on the chart below to enlarge the results.



Here's a summary of the paper.

Basketball is a dualistic sport: all players compete on both offense and defense, and the core strategies of basketball revolve around scoring points on offense and preventing points on defense. However, conventional basketball statistics emphasize offensive performance much more than defensive performance. In the basketball analytics community, we do not have enough metrics and analytical frameworks to effectively characterize defensive play. However, although measuring defense has traditionally been difficult, new player tracking data are presenting new opportunities to understand defensive basketball.

This paper introduces new spatial and visual analytics capable of assessing and characterizing the nature of interior defense in the NBA. We present two case studies that each focus on a different component of defensive play. Our results suggest that the integration of spatial approaches and player tracking data not only promise to improve the status quo of defensive analytics, but also reveal some important challenges associated with evaluating defense.
​

---end quote---

3) Logically, you can't say that Wiggins would or wouldn't develop here; it's supposition. We don't know. Many of us think that he would have excelled under LeBron, you can't just discount that without stating why.

tl;dr:
1) Cavs would have had more flexibility not less.
2) Love is not the best "stretch PF" in the NBA.
3) Saying Wiggins couldn't develop here discounts how many players have blossomed under other superstars. We're witnessing Kyrie do what many thought impossible -- play defense -- under LeBron James.

 

[gourimoko]

I don't doubt Paul George's talent. I also don't doubt that Paul George is the better defender than Kevin Love. He was.

However, I doubt Paul George being more important to his team and being the better offensive player than Kevin Love was unless you do some arbitrary projections that would've equally applied to Danny Granger.

Err.. I think Kevin Love is a somewhat better offensive player.. Sure. But the net difference (offensive contribution + defensive contribution) is in George's favor.

That's the point.

 

[gourimoko]

@Jscc , btw.. post the full pic of your avatar in this thread.. it's been bothering me not seeing the rest.

Also, I'm tired of making this argument. The trade is done, and we can't undo it. Kevin Love is now, and hopefully will always be a Cavalier.

I hope he outperforms Wiggins, by a mile.

 

[mps239]

Bobcat, lots of logical problems here... But concisely,
1) You can't go back in time and say what trades would and wouldn't have happened... There's no reason that I can see that we would have had less of an ability to make trades; so I think that argument doesn't make sense.

2) Is LaMarcus Aldridge not a "Stretch 4?" Guys saying Love was better than LaMarcus Aldridge have obviously not watched either player play the game of basketball. You can't pick up the box score and start "educating" folks who've watched Kevin turn his back to opposing players he's responsible for guarding just to grab a rebound.

Love is not better, and has never been better, than LMA. He needs to learn to play defense.

--quote--
Research paper by Kirk Goldsberry and Eric Weiss, presented at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, concludes that Portland Trail Blazers All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge is near the top of the list when it comes to field goal percentage allowed by interior defenders.

Aldridge ranks No. 5 on a chart of field goal percentage allowed when he is within five feet of the basket, trailing only Indiana Pacers center Roy Hibbert, Milwaukee Bucks center Larry Sanders, Dallas Mavericks forward Elton Brand and Oklahoma City Thunder forward Serge Ibaka. The data was culled from 75,000 field goal attempts taken during the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons using video tracking data.

Here's the PDF of the full study, which explains the paper's first goal.

The objective of the first case study was to examine the ability of interior defenders to "protect the basket." This case study considered shot attempts that occurred when there was an interior defender within 5 feet of the basket and was designed to measure two aspects of point prevention: the ability to prevent shots near the basket, and the ability to reduce the shooting efficiency of opponents near the basket. We evaluated shooting patterns using spatial splits. As a means to characterize the opponents' shooting tendencies, we calculated both the frequency and efficiency of shooting in each zone, but placed primary emphasis on close range shooting.

Click on the chart below to enlarge the results.



Here's a summary of the paper.

Basketball is a dualistic sport: all players compete on both offense and defense, and the core strategies of basketball revolve around scoring points on offense and preventing points on defense. However, conventional basketball statistics emphasize offensive performance much more than defensive performance. In the basketball analytics community, we do not have enough metrics and analytical frameworks to effectively characterize defensive play. However, although measuring defense has traditionally been difficult, new player tracking data are presenting new opportunities to understand defensive basketball.

This paper introduces new spatial and visual analytics capable of assessing and characterizing the nature of interior defense in the NBA. We present two case studies that each focus on a different component of defensive play. Our results suggest that the integration of spatial approaches and player tracking data not only promise to improve the status quo of defensive analytics, but also reveal some important challenges associated with evaluating defense.
​

---end quote---

3) Logically, you can't say that Wiggins would or wouldn't develop here; it's supposition. We don't know. Many of us think that he would have excelled under LeBron, you can't just discount that without stating why.

tl;dr:
1) Cavs would have had more flexibility not less.
2) Love is not the best "stretch PF" in the NBA.
3) Saying Wiggins couldn't develop here discounts how many players have blossomed under other superstars. We're witnessing Kyrie do what many thought impossible -- play defense -- under LeBron James.

Did I miss something and LMA was available in trade? How about Kevin Love was the best stretch 4 available?

 

[Tazoz]

About Love, a few days ago Blatt commented about how he hoped that Love would make the All star team. In other words, Blatt feels that Love is doing what he is meant to do which is to stretch the floor and draw out the opponents bigs. His role is to make everyone around him a bit better by opening up the court, with this in mind, Love should get some the credit for James and Irving playing well recently. It is so much easier to drive to the basket when the opponent's big is defending Love.

It is important to note that Love still has to shoot over the opponents 4 or 5, a position that traditionally defends well and that ideally has the ability to reduce shooting percentages. (Rim protectors) This means that a 4 that can shoot well from outside will still have lower percentages than a 1 or 2 that shoots well as they are defended by players that know how to deflect shots. Defenders of 1 or 2 positions usually rely on steals as outside shooting is less effective than inside shooting and it is more important to limit passing lanes than to deflect shots. It is also usually a bad idea to try to block three point shots as three point fouls are considered to be terrible plays. Coincidentally enough, Love draws a huge amount of three point fouls which pretty much proves the above mentioned point.

Btw, Love's main value as a defender is that he boxes out players well allowing his team's other big to focus on rim protection which is one of the reasons why he seemingly defends much better with Mozgov and has helped TT increase his efficiency as a shot blocker. Unfortunately, this also means that he will struggle against bigs that shoot from a distance such as versus Aldridge and his defensive stats will often depend heavily on the defensive stats of the team's other bigs.

Wiggins is a good player but judging his level of play according to how he plays versus the Cavs is a bit of a mistake. The player was traded by the Cavs and as such has extra motivation to play better versus them as he feels anger towards them. Love asked to be traded so has less motivation to play better versus Minnesota as he might feel guilty.

Personally I feel that the Cavs look great right now. Lamenting on a past trade when the team is such a powerhouse seems to me to be a bit pointless. Lets be happy that we have a team that is getting better every day, a fantastic coach that is a proven winner, at least two superstars and a group of players that like each other and play well together as a team.

 

[Sumac13]

@Jscc , btw.. post the full pic of your avatar in this thread.. it's been bothering me not seeing the rest.

Gotta love Google Image search.

http://visualapparel.com/blog/city-views-jayden-jaymes/ (no nudity, but might not want to look while at work)

--
As for Love/Wiggins debate, it is a counterfactual one. If the Cavs can win a championship this year or next with Love, then I won't give a damn if Wiggins eventually turns out to be a better player. Not that I care that much now.

 

[bobcat22]

Bobcat, lots of logical problems here... But concisely,
1) You can't go back in time and say what trades would and wouldn't have happened... There's no reason that I can see that we would have had less of an ability to make trades; so I think that argument doesn't make sense.

2) Is LaMarcus Aldridge not a "Stretch 4?" Guys saying Love was better than LaMarcus Aldridge have obviously not watched either player play the game of basketball. You can't pick up the box score and start "educating" folks who've watched Kevin turn his back to opposing players he's responsible for guarding just to grab a rebound.

Love is not better, and has never been better, than LMA. He needs to learn to play defense.

--quote--
Research paper by Kirk Goldsberry and Eric Weiss, presented at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, concludes that Portland Trail Blazers All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge is near the top of the list when it comes to field goal percentage allowed by interior defenders.

Aldridge ranks No. 5 on a chart of field goal percentage allowed when he is within five feet of the basket, trailing only Indiana Pacers center Roy Hibbert, Milwaukee Bucks center Larry Sanders, Dallas Mavericks forward Elton Brand and Oklahoma City Thunder forward Serge Ibaka. The data was culled from 75,000 field goal attempts taken during the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons using video tracking data.

Here's the PDF of the full study, which explains the paper's first goal.

The objective of the first case study was to examine the ability of interior defenders to "protect the basket." This case study considered shot attempts that occurred when there was an interior defender within 5 feet of the basket and was designed to measure two aspects of point prevention: the ability to prevent shots near the basket, and the ability to reduce the shooting efficiency of opponents near the basket. We evaluated shooting patterns using spatial splits. As a means to characterize the opponents' shooting tendencies, we calculated both the frequency and efficiency of shooting in each zone, but placed primary emphasis on close range shooting.

Click on the chart below to enlarge the results.



Here's a summary of the paper.

Basketball is a dualistic sport: all players compete on both offense and defense, and the core strategies of basketball revolve around scoring points on offense and preventing points on defense. However, conventional basketball statistics emphasize offensive performance much more than defensive performance. In the basketball analytics community, we do not have enough metrics and analytical frameworks to effectively characterize defensive play. However, although measuring defense has traditionally been difficult, new player tracking data are presenting new opportunities to understand defensive basketball.

This paper introduces new spatial and visual analytics capable of assessing and characterizing the nature of interior defense in the NBA. We present two case studies that each focus on a different component of defensive play. Our results suggest that the integration of spatial approaches and player tracking data not only promise to improve the status quo of defensive analytics, but also reveal some important challenges associated with evaluating defense.
​

---end quote---

3) Logically, you can't say that Wiggins would or wouldn't develop here; it's supposition. We don't know. Many of us think that he would have excelled under LeBron, you can't just discount that without stating why.

tl;dr:
1) Cavs would have had more flexibility not less.
2) Love is not the best "stretch PF" in the NBA.
3) Saying Wiggins couldn't develop here discounts how many players have blossomed under other superstars. We're witnessing Kyrie do what many thought impossible -- play defense -- under LeBron James.

Cool, cool, but not sure you understand the concept of a "stretch 4." Lamarcus is a back to the basket player who lives and dies by the midrange jumper ala Toronto Bosh. Aldridge took 0.2 3's per game every season until this year, where he only takes 1.2 per game. Why? Because it's not his game. A stretch 4 HAS to be able to shoot 3's. Of course Aldridge is a better defender, but stretch 4 he is not. Aldridge lives in the midrange, Love lives at the 3 point line. By your definition, Karl Malone was a stretch 4 as well. Him and Aldridge have very similar offensive games.

As for Wiggins' development, here is a quote after the game tonight from the man himself.

View: https://twitter.com/APkrawczynski/status/561748513722466304


As for the trades, yes I can say what would not have happened. Denver clearly wanted 2 1st round picks or the deal wasn't getting done for Mozzy. Griffin had hounded them all summer with no bite. The deal for Iman was done because length was needed on the wing. With Wiggins, Iman and JR would have made 3 shooting guards on the roster who don't have the size to play the 3. That trade does not happen for obvious reasons.

More flexibility eh? Let's look at Cleveland's assets when Wiggins signed his rookie deal to refresh your memory and see what the Cavs had.

Miami and Memphis picks
3 Jazz players(later turned into Keith Bogans trade exception)
Bennett and Waiters
Haywood contract

The Cavs had NO cap space. Mike Miller took the room MLE and JJ took the vet minimum. All the Cavs had to offer was the vet minimum to free agents. Love had no effect on cap space.

We know Bennett had absolutely no value, especially at $5 million a year. Waiters played like garbage and had very little value(thank you Knicks). The trade exception is only good if you throw in an asset to entice the other team to give up their player. Cavs had already used up most of their 2nd round picks to trade. Haywood's contract isn't good until the next summer. That leaves the Miami and Memphis picks. Do you give both of them up for Mozzy or trade them one at a time for 2 more players? Decisions, decisions. Oh and remember, Tristan gets paid this summer and Andy got that contract extension. Not a lot of wiggle room next summer either even without Love.

 

[bobcat22]

.

 

[clevelandrox23]

It's funny how much praise Wiggins was getting in the game thread, but I know without a shadow of a doubt that everyone here would be killing Kyrie or Love if one of them scored 33 points with only one assist and one board. In fact, I remember it happening with Kyrie earlier this season.



Did you miss the 17 rebounds and 3 assists he had tonight?

Here are some of the following differences...
1. Wiggins is 19
2. Wiggins has no high quality players around him especially tonight with like 6 of their players injured
3. Wiggins plays SG/SF he is not a big
4. Wiggins still had 4 steals
5. I value high FG % more than I do defensive rebounds
6. Most importantly he is a rookie

I'm not expecting Wiggins to literally be the next LeBron. When he starts to peak I wouldn't be surprised if he only averages 3-5 assists per game more similar to Melo. But shooting 64% for 33 points, give him credit where credit is due. I give Love credit for getting 6 offensive rebounds.

 

[blazenmp]

tl;dr:
1) Cavs would have had more flexibility not less.
2) Love is not the best "stretch PF" in the NBA.
3) Saying Wiggins couldn't develop here discounts how many players have blossomed under other superstars. We're witnessing Kyrie do what many thought impossible -- play defense -- under LeBron James.

While in the end, I disagree with you, I'm wondering how much you would charge me to document reasons for me for work.... you're good.

Edit: Had to add, as far as #3 goes, apples and oranges. Kyrie already had his NBA experience and has obviously bought in to playing with LeBron rather than being LeBron. Who's to say Wiggins would or would not have. There are too many variables, might haves or might have nots to say for so much of this. It is why some of us are tired of seeing it come up.