Tracking the 2013 Draft Picks

[gratefuldead]

lakers schedule is too tough, not going to make it

 

[Nathan S]

lakers schedule is too tough, not going to make it

Only remaining road game is at Portland...and they're 23-12 at home. It's a 50/50 prop at worst.

 

[Gimme Some Mo]

I used to hate Kobe. Now I really admire his attitude and passion for the game. I wish every player in the NBA cared half as much as he does. The NBA would be much more entertaining and competitive. He is a tough SOB.

 

[shoes22]

If the Lakers manage to make the playoffs, I'll buy a Kobe fathead and put it up in my room for a year.

 

[Man Called X]

If the Lakers manage to make the playoffs, I'll buy a Kobe fathead and put it up in my room for a year.

Saved for posterity to make sure he actually does it.

 

[Rich]

This next Lakers game is basically the season. They lose it, there is no chance. THey've got the Spurs, Clippers, Grizzlies, Rockets and Golden State left. They've got ONE team below .500, and that's Portland, on the road. It looks grim.

 

[Birdy89]

Kobe played 47 minutes, 37 seconds of a possible 48 minutes last night.

His legs might fall off before the season ends if MDA keeps that up.

 

[Douglar]

Lakers and Jazz are tied. Mavs have 2 less wins and one more loss.

Lakers look like they got 5 tough games and 1 easy game left.
Utah looks like they have 4 tough games and 1 easy game left.
Mavs have easy games, but 9 games to go instead of 8.

The odds makers still have it as close to a tossup between Lakers and Jazz.

Hollinger says Jazz 48.5%, Lakers 45.7%, Mavs 7.6%
SportsClubStats says Jazz 50.6%, Lakers 43.6%, Mavs 7.1%

Game Day	Dallas	Lakers	Jazz
Mon, Apr 1			@Blazers
Tue, Apr 2	@Lakers	Mavs
Wed, Apr 3			Nuggets
Thu, Apr 4	@Nuggets
Fri, Apr 5	@Kings	Grizzlies	Hornets
Sat, Apr 6
Sun, Apr 7	@Blazers	Clippers	@Warriors
Mon, Apr 8
Tue, Apr 9		Hornets	Thunder
Wed, Apr 10	Suns	@Blazers
Thu, Apr 11
Fri, Apr 12	Nuggets	Warriors	T-Wolves
Sat, Apr 13
Sun, Apr 14	@Hornets	Spurs
Mon, Apr 15	Grizzlies		@T-Wolves
Tue, Apr 16
Wed, Apr 17	Hornets	Rockets	@Grizzlies

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[TwoPistols]

I would not be surprised if the Lakers went 2-6 to close it out, but I will be optimistic and say they go 4-4 to finish the season. It would be huge if the Spurs rested their players...

Mavs and Jazz will catch a break playing the Nuggets without Lawson.

The good news about the Jazz schedule though is that Kevin Love could be back for both of those games. He is set to be reevaluated in a week to see if he can be cleared for full contact practice. So we've got 2 weeks to pray that he is cleared and then isn't shutdown. Still, best case scenario there is probably a split.

I've got Mavs at 6-3 for 42-40
Lakers at 4-4 for 42-40
Jazz at 4-4 for 42-40

 

[wuck]

I've got Mavs at 6-3 for 42-40
Lakers at 4-4 for 42-40
Jazz at 4-4 for 42-40

The Jazz would win a 3-way tiebreaker due to best combined head-to-head record among the three teams (no matter how Mavs/Lakers game turns out). The Jazz also win any head-to-head tiebreakers against either other team.

Last week of the season may be up in the air in terms of whether playoff teams rest their players.

For now, every upcoming game is a "must-win" for the Lakers. Not the best position to be in, but they put themselves there.

I also don't think the Mavs can sustain a loss to the Lakers, esp. followed by 3 quick road games. A loss would put them behind their competitors by 3 losses (because of the tiebreakers).

 

[Douglar]

I've got Mavs at 6-3 for 42-40
Lakers at 4-4 for 42-40
Jazz at 4-4 for 42-40

The odds have Lakers and Jazz both finishing at 4-4, but the Lakers have a better chance at 5-3 or better while the Jazz have a better chance of 3-5 or worse.

Mavs have the easiest schedule, but as Wuck pointed out, they need to gain a lot of ground. Mavs need to go 7-2 to have a 50-50 shot at making the playoffs.

Tuesday will be a big day, but this also might come down to the last three days of the season. With a bit of luck, the Grizzlies want to finish strong while the Rockets and Spurs rest their starters.

 

[Rich]

The lakers haveno easy games. Theyve sucke in portland for years.

 

[Douglar]

Minor setback on the Lakers front. Nothing that a few Jazz losses can't fix.

Headlines from the late season tanking special edition:

• Philly has left the picture. They are back to winning more that 40% of their games. Boring.
• Orlando stays within striking distance of the Bobcats after handing Charlotte a devastating win last Wednesday
• The Cavs effectively eliminated New Orleans from contention for the 3rd seed tonight. They are 3 games back now.
• Pistons avoid a set back tonight, even with Drummond back in the lineup. The Cavs can take care of them on the 10th.
• Suns seem unshakable. They might not win another game. If that happens, one more win means the Cavs tie for 3rd.

Here's a handy schedule for DIY predictions.

Game Day	Cavs (22-50)	Suns (23-51)	Pistons (24-50)
Mon Apr 1	@Hawks		@Raptors
Tue Apr 2
Wed Apr 3	Nets	@Clippers	@Celtics
Thu Apr 4
Fri Apr 5	@Celtics	Warriors
Sat Apr 6			@Wolves
Sun Apr 7	Magic	Hornets	vs.Bulls
Mon Apr 8
Tue Apr 9	@Pacers	@Rockets
Wed Apr 10	Pistons	@Mavericks	@Cavaliers
Thu Apr 11
Fri Apr 12	Knicks		vs.Bobcats
Sat Apr 13		@Wolves
Sun Apr 14	@76ers
Mon Apr 15	Heat	Rockets	vs.76ers
Tue Apr 16
Wed Apr 17	@Bobcats	@Nuggets	@Nets

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[Douglar]

Here are the SportsClubStats Odds for the Cavs Picks/Seeds. It's hard to imagine better picks at the beginning of the season.

-- Cavs First Round
#2 Lotto Seed 1%
#3 Lotto Seed 41%
#4 Lotto Seed 38%
#5 Lotto Seed 13%
#6 Lotto Seed 5%
#7 Lotto Seed 1%

-- Next First Round
#15 Pick 3%
#16 Pick 45%
#17 Pick 1%
#18 Pick 2%
#30 Pick 49%

--2 Second round picks
#31 Pick 23%
#32 Pick 76%
#33 Pick 43%
#34 Pick 38%
#35 Pick 13%
#36 Pick 5%
#37 Pick 1%

 

[rabman_gold]

This is probably a better place for my post than the tank thread...

Draft Pick Magic Numbers:

How to measure magic #:

1. Start with the full season's worth of games (82).
2. Add a tie-breaker (+ 1) if necessary (83). This will remove the coin-flip.
3. Compare the team you want to be better than (or worse than) a specific team.
   1. Ex. You want the Cavs to be worse than the Phoenix Suns.
   2. Ex. You want the Lakers to be better than the Utah Jazz.
4. Take the Cavs loss totals, add the Suns win totals, subtract the total from the season AND tie-breaker (83) to the get the result.
5. You do the same for the Lakers, except add the Lakers win totals and the Jazz loss totals and subtract 83 to get the result.
6. Whatever the higher number is (a team's added wins or losses), that's the true magic number.

​

Seed	Team	Ws	Ls	%	M#	1st #	3rd #	5th #	CLE
1		17	56	.233	--	8	4	1	N/A
2		19	55	.257	--	^	3	2	N/A
3		22	50	.306	--	5	10	7	--
4		23	51	.311	--	4	^	6	N/A
5		24	50	.324	--	3	9	7	N/A
6		26	48	.351	--	1	7	^	N/A
7		26	46	.361	--	1	7	7	N/A
8		27	47	.365	--	--	6	6	3
9		27	46	.370	2	--	6	6	N/A
10		27	46	.370	2	--	6	6	N/A
11		30	43	.411	5	--	3	3	N/A
12		33	40	.452	5	--	--	--	N/A
13		36	37	.493	8	--	--	--	N/A
14		38	36	.514	8	--	--	--	N/A
EC		35	37	.493	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
WC		38	36	.486	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

<tbody>
</tbody>

To be fair, I'll give an explanation.

1. The first set of numbers after the wins, losses, and win percentage is the magic number, or #. It exemplifies how many losses a lottery team needs (or wins a playoff team in their conference needs) to earn a seed in the lottery. Simple enough. It also shows the number for the two 8th playoff seeds in each conference, but in our case, the Los Angeles Lakers are there.
2. The next set of numbers is the magic number to clinch the first lottery seed, the most amount of ping pong balls. We unrealistically try to pray to pass the Magic and Bobcats to no avail (and rightfully so), so follow along as other team fall out of the race with us.
3. So predictably, the next two would be for the 3rd worst and 5th worst records. In the draft, the players we want to get would be in the top 5, since statistically, they are known to be the ones that become all-NBA players. Just an encouragement to be bad but not sacrifice TOO much.