Tristan Thompson

[Rambo!]

Kyle'Oquinn would have been perfect for us, the guy is being paid 4/16 and is much more talented than TT at almost every aspect of the game, he has midrange, blocking ability and is pretty big.
too bad we couldn't or didn't acquire him.
it would have made TT redundant.

Good Call! I think I would rather have O'Quinn as well. At basically the same age here are their career Per 36 minutes stats:
T.T. : 12.7 pts 10.6 reb 0.8 ast 0.7 blk 0.5 stl.
K.O'Q: 13.0 pts 10.5 reb 2.6 ast 2.1 blk 1.1 stl.
K. O'Q. > T.T. and for 1/4 the cost!!!

 

[Danny Arison]

Good Call! I think I would rather have O'Quinn as well. At basically the same age here are their career Per 36 minutes stats:
T.T. : 12.7 pts 10.6 reb 0.8 ast 0.7 blk 0.5 stl.
K.O'Q: 13.0 pts 10.5 reb 2.6 ast 2.1 blk 1.1 stl.
K. O'Q. > T.T. and for 1/4 the cost!!!

and that's on the poor Magic, he also didn't get many minutes,on our system with Lebron he would have gotten so many clean looks, maybe we just couldn't acquire him? Our option was only the MLE?

 

[HurricaneKid]

in the regular season 24% of his shots were from 3-10 feet. He didnt take trthe shot because it wasnt his role to. Cavs much prefered Thompson reset the offense.
your stats show the story less than 2 shots a game from outside 3 feet.

However once the playoffs began and Cavs were beset by injuries. sso did Tristans shot distribution as the 24% went up to39,5 percent and his FG% went from 34.7 percent to 41 percent. as far as outside of 10 feet. not even enough attempts for his percentages to matter or be measurable.

but yeah lets use his regular season metrics to measure his playoff performance. makes perfect sense.

Once again Thompson is 24. He development and progression as well as energy has been constantly compared to AV. Thats how he is being gromed. A more Athletic Andy. One that can defend the pick and roll.

potential is a factor here no matter how much some would like to dismiss it.

I used the data set that included ALL THE DATA. You were the one that wanted to remove 80% of the information available because you thought it buttressed your point to do so.

Of course, it DID NOT. If you need to so aggressively cherry pick statlines to find a shot he can make at a 41% clip you have found a shot that is not efficient enough to continue to shoot. Which is why the team wants him to pull the ball out in those situations.

Which reaffirms what most of us already knew. He is a good offensive rebounder (a skill that increases in efficacy with LeBron and Kyrie pulling his defender out of rebounding position), and a flexible defender (but certainly not a defender that moves mountains), and a pretty good roll man. These are not sufficient to be making the demands that he is.

And while at age 24 there is normally a significant improvement curve, his assets are almost exclusively based on his athleticism. His shot making, shot creating, passing, and footwork are horrific. Thats where guys make their improvements. Players often gain in wisdom more than they lose in athleticism. But he is a bull in a china shop. He gets away with murder on the boards and a slight adjustment in the way the game is officiated would destroy much of his value. He legitimately doesn't know which hand to shoot with. So telling the board here he is going to become a plus shooter just rings hollow. This doesn't mean he isn't a good player. It just limits his upside and shows that his career is likely to be shorter than another gifted 24 yr old.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

The entire problem with this line of thought is the punitive nature of the tax. If TT signs the 5/80 he starts off at 14M this year. The Cavs pay 3.75 for every dollar in lux tax. So he costs 66.5M, or >95% of the salary cap. If they ALSO add a 10M player we are talking about ANOTHER 47.5M on top of that. I'm sorry but I don't see how adding TT and Jeff Green is possibly worth 114M.

I DO think it allows us to leverage TT as we approach the season. You tell LeBron, TT, anyone that will listen that you have a deal lined up to add Brandon Bass/whomever for the TPE and given all the injuries you will need to pull the trigger in 48 hours. Because TT and his team will know that all but leaves him on the outside looking in permanently. That there is no way the Cavs will be adding another 67M in salary at that point and that there aren't any min left for him.

I think the TPE will be used in the first mo of the offseason next year. Probably for Joe Johnson (depending on the rate of his decline this year).

Hey, do you think it is reasonably possible that Dan would actually prefer not to pay TT 5/80 at all, and is only.making that offer because of LBJ? Maybe Dan himself looks at that tax bill and would rather roll the dice this season without having to pay TT at all.

If true, Dan's negotiating goal isn't getting TT actually signed, but rather simply doing enough in LBJ's eyes to avert a backlash. That may mean he has no real incentive to go above 5/80, or to otherwise go the extra mile to make a deal happen.

After all, Dan may end up saving a ton of money the longer TT holds out into the season.

It's an interesting possibility to think about because if true, it means that TT holding out doesn't place any pressure on Dan because Dan doesn't want TT to sign that deal anyway.

 

[Rambo!]

I wish there were some team out there dumb enough to do a sign and trade with. That way we get back likely more at a lower price. Unfortunately, we don't see that happening. Maybe its time to let him go and use the Trade Exception on a better player for the $10 Million per.

 

[JMoneyYourHoney]

If the Cavs are seriously considering alternatives (and I hope they are), then Thompson could be setting himself up for the most disastrous situation he could be in: ousted from a true title contender, plummeting value, and the hope of just breaking even next offseason which would require a suitor to offer him the max (which I don't see happening.)

That's exactly what I was referring to earlier when I said that Paul's advice could adversely effect his client.

 

[HurricaneKid]

Hey, do you think it is reasonably possible that Dan would actually prefer not to pay TT 5/80 at all, and is only.making that offer because of LBJ? Maybe Dan himself looks at that tax bill and would rather roll the dice this season without having to pay TT at all.

If true, Dan's negotiating goal isn't getting TT actually signed, but rather simply doing enough in LBJ's eyes to avert a backlash. That may mean he has no real incentive to go above 5/80, or to otherwise go the extra mile to make a deal happen.

After all, Dan may end up saving a ton of money the longer TT holds out into the season.

It's an interesting possibility to think about because if true, it means that TT holding out doesn't place any pressure on Dan because Dan doesn't want TT to sign that deal anyway.

Do I think Dan would prefer not to pay TT 80M and end up responsible up to another 300M in lux tax? I'm almost certain of it. There is no value in paying a role player 250M. But he also knows the house of cards falls apart if he loses LeBron again and he is willing to do whatever he needs to to avoid that possibility.

I think LeBron, more than anyone ever, understands the frustration of making ~30% of how much he should. Not only is his earnings potential limited, but he was talked into "taking less" to build a better team in Miami. Then he watched as they cut salary to save money. So what he has done in the absence of making what he deserves is found ways to leverage the bargain his contract represents. He wields great power in the front office by doing a series of 1 year deals. He wields great power through his agency, etc. And he is going to make sure Gilbert does right by him.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Do I think Dan would prefer not to pay TT 80M and end up responsible up to another 300M in lux tax? I'm almost certain of it. There is no value in paying a role player 250M. But he also knows the house of cards falls apart if he loses LeBron again and he is willing to do whatever he needs to to avoid that possibility.

I think LeBron, more than anyone ever, understands the frustration of making ~30% of how much he should. Not only is his earnings potential limited, but he was talked into "taking less" to build a better team in Miami. Then he watched as they cut salary to save money. So what he has done in the absence of making what he deserves is found ways to leverage the bargain his contract represents. He wields great power in the front office by doing a series of 1 year deals. He wields great power through his agency, etc. And he is going to make sure Gilbert does right by him.

Right, but (assuming the premise is true) that still boils down to the only real pressure being whatever LBJ chooses to apply, not the independent pressure of the Cavs wanting TT in uniform (at least at that cost).

At least as of right now, LBJ doesn't seem to be putting the squeeze on the Cavs with respect to TT, perhaps because he thinks the offer the Cavs have made is fair, and that TT should either have accepted it or signed the TO.

So, as long as the Cavs don't get an ultimatum from LBJ to increase their offer, they're perfectly content with TT sitting at home.

Perhaps more importantly, because LBJ is already signed for this season anyway, LBJ's real leverage doesn't kick in until next summer, when the Cavs would still have TT's RFA rights. If they have to sign him to a huge contract then, well, they'll be much happier for having saved $70-80m this year.

If it is true that the only reason the Cavs are willing to pay TT that much is because of LBJ, and LBJ has washed his hands of this, then Paul has horribly overplayed his hand.

 

[HurricaneKid]

Right, but (assuming the premise is true) that still boils down to the only real pressure being whatever LBJ chooses to apply, not the independent pressure of the Cavs wanting TT in uniform (at least at that cost).

At least as of right now, LBJ doesn't seem to be putting the squeeze on the Cavs with respect to TT, perhaps because he thinks the offer the Cavs have made is fair, and that TT should either have accepted it or signed the TO.

So, as long as the Cavs don't get an ultimatum from LBJ to increase their offer, they're perfectly content with TT sitting at home.

Perhaps more importantly, because LBJ is already signed for this season anyway, LBJ's real leverage doesn't kick in until next summer, when the Cavs would still have TT's RFA rights. If they have to sign him to a huge contract then, well, they'll be much happier for having saved $70-80m this year.

If it is true that the only reason the Cavs are willing to pay TT that much is because of LBJ, and LBJ has washed his hands of this, then Paul has horribly overplayed his hand.

LeBron is legendarily passive aggressive. According to reports the Heat FO even asked him how he felt about amnestying Mike Miller (who is probably the most liked player in the league) before they ended up doing it. If it was that important to LeBron to keep him around he should have clearly said something about it. But to LeBron it was the FO asking him if they could make the team worse to save $17M and the QUESTION was the offensive part. He is an enormously difficult to read and makes big decisions based on things you aren't even aware of at the time. But if that QUESTION was the part that made him start thinking about coming back to Cle, then how is Gilbert ever supposed to know what he thinks if he can't ask these types of questions.

On the other hand, the reason he left in the first place was because we couldn't surround him with suitable talent. A succession of lousy deals backed the team into a corner they could never get out of. Does LBJ really want TT making max money when that will limit the opportunities the team will have in the future to make personnel changes that might become necessary?

I honestly do not know the answer to these questions and at this point they really do dictate how this plays out.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

LeBron is legendarily passive aggressive. According to reports the Heat FO even asked him how he felt about amnestying Mike Miller (who is probably the most liked player in the league) before they ended up doing it. If it was that important to LeBron to keep him around he should have clearly said something about it. But to LeBron it was the FO asking him if they could make the team worse to save $17M and the QUESTION was the offensive part. He is an enormously difficult to read and makes big decisions based on things you aren't even aware of at the time. But if that QUESTION was the part that made him start thinking about coming back to Cle, then how is Gilbert ever supposed to know what he thinks if he can't ask these types of questions.

On the other hand, the reason he left in the first place was because we couldn't surround him with suitable talent. A succession of lousy deals backed the team into a corner they could never get out of. Does LBJ really want TT making max money when that will limit the opportunities the team will have in the future to make personnel changes that might become necessary?

I honestly do not know the answer to these questions and at this point they really do dictate how this plays out.

The glitch is that if LBJ is passive/aggressive and doesn't communicate clearly about this stuff, then he can't make sure Dan "does right by him" because he's not being clear about what "right" even means.

I don't think Dan is going to make another move until he's actually forced to do so, either by LBJ or injuries. He's got no reason to otherwise.

 

[Change of Pace]

View: https://soundcloud.com/siriusxmnba/former-cavs-center-brendan-haywood-says-that-5-years-80-million-is-a-fair-deal-for-tristan-thompson


Haywood thinks TT should take 5yrs/$80 million, easily. Goes on to say TT will only average 8 PPG and 6 RPG.

 

[Ecmic]

I used the data set that included ALL THE DATA. You were the one that wanted to remove 80% of the information available because you thought it buttressed your point to do so.

Of course, it DID NOT. If you need to so aggressively cherry pick statlines to find a shot he can make at a 41% clip you have found a shot that is not efficient enough to continue to shoot. Which is why the team wants him to pull the ball out in those situations.

Which reaffirms what most of us already knew. He is a good offensive rebounder (a skill that increases in efficacy with LeBron and Kyrie pulling his defender out of rebounding position), and a flexible defender (but certainly not a defender that moves mountains), and a pretty good roll man. These are not sufficient to be making the demands that he is.

And while at age 24 there is normally a significant improvement curve, his assets are almost exclusively based on his athleticism. His shot making, shot creating, passing, and footwork are horrific. Thats where guys make their improvements. Players often gain in wisdom more than they lose in athleticism. But he is a bull in a china shop. He gets away with murder on the boards and a slight adjustment in the way the game is officiated would destroy much of his value. He legitimately doesn't know which hand to shoot with. So telling the board here he is going to become a plus shooter just rings hollow. This doesn't mean he isn't a good player. It just limits his upside and shows that his career is likely to be shorter than another gifted 24 yr old.

I'm sure there's alot of anecdotal evidence that shows creating a player valuation based solely on one playoff performance is one of the worst things a team can do. I'm too lazy to research it now though.

 

[gaitano]

The TT rumors are circling the globe, blown by a Windy podcast all the way to the Chinese online paper, "Yibada":

"Veteran Channing Frye (a much better shooter and true back up to Kevin Love) and Shabazz Napier ( the PG that Lebron wanted to bring on in Miami to develop and be a more reliable back up then Deli) to Cleveland."


The Cavs then send Tristan Thompson to the Suns, who would offer the three-year modified deal he was asking for, as well as a 2016 Second round pick from Chicago.

Orlando will get Markieff Morris and take him off the Suns' hands so he can be a back up for Scott Skiles. Also, the Magic will receive the Suns 2016 first round pick from Cleveland that's top-10 protected (highly unlikely the Suns fall that low).

This is only a "fan proposal", and not mine. Miami and especially Phoenix are not that stupid. Nobody wants TT at the max.

 

[Drifter]

Do I think Dan would prefer not to pay TT 80M and end up responsible up to another 300M in lux tax? I'm almost certain of it. There is no value in paying a role player 250M. But he also knows the house of cards falls apart if he loses LeBron again and he is willing to do whatever he needs to to avoid that possibility.

I think LeBron, more than anyone ever, understands the frustration of making ~30% of how much he should. Not only is his earnings potential limited, but he was talked into "taking less" to build a better team in Miami. Then he watched as they cut salary to save money. So what he has done in the absence of making what he deserves is found ways to leverage the bargain his contract represents. He wields great power in the front office by doing a series of 1 year deals. He wields great power through his agency, etc. And he is going to make sure Gilbert does right by him.

Insert LeBron leaving response No. 1-A62B here:
LeBron is not leaving. There is no possibility of that. As posted before, his leverage ended, his commitment was cemented, when he published The Letter, when he made The Commercial, and when he was quoted, times 100, about his devotion to bring a title to Cleveland.
There is zero chance he leaves. He knows this. The Cavs know this. And that's another reason why this situation with TT is dragging on. The Cavs are not even remotely worried about LeBron leaving being a possibility. They will deal with TT on their terms.

 

[HurricaneKid]

Insert LeBron leaving response No. 1-A62B here:
LeBron is not leaving. There is no possibility of that. As posted before, his leverage ended, his commitment was cemented, when he published The Letter, when he made The Commercial, and when he was quoted, times 100, about his devotion to bring a title to Cleveland.
There is zero chance he leaves. He knows this. The Cavs know this. And that's another reason why this situation with TT is dragging on. The Cavs are not even remotely worried about LeBron leaving being a possibility. They will deal with TT on their terms.

I totally and completely agree. But if Gilbert gives him reason to leave and he does, Gilbert's head is going to be on a stake outside the Q.

If you don't think LeBron has juice you are missing a really important facet of the decision making process in the FO.