I don't understand how that counters my argument. I agree with everything in it. That's why I have Jose hitting second in my lineup as well.
I would like to refer you here:
Finding the ideal batting order is overrated, but if you're going to do it, do it right. BtB shows how, from the leadoff hitter down through the number nine hitter (who shouldn't be the pitcher).
www.beyondtheboxscore.com
Lead-Off
The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.
The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.
For me, Hernandez fits that description perfectly. You might question top 3 hitter on the team, but he's projected to have the third-highest OBP% on the team, which means only Carlos and Jose would make fewer outs, but they also have substantially more power.
I definitely question Hernandez being one of the top three hitters on the team. I would put him behind everybody except Perez and possibly Mercado. In fact, Hernandez ranked dead last in OPS+ last year among all the projected starters in our lineups, including Mercado and even Perez. As you put it, OPS+ measures overall hitting ability whereas OPB only measures the ability to get on base. I don't want my worst, or maybe second or third worst overall hitter getting the most at-bats.
As for speed, which isn't that important in front of power hitters, Hernandez stole nine bases last year. Nobody is playing small ball anymore. Definitely not us.
There was a column on Oscar Mercado the other day that mentioned he was 15-for-19 in stolen bases last year. He said he could have run more but didn’t want to risk getting thrown out with Hosey, Santana, or Reyes at the plate, any of whom can drive him in from first base with a drive into a gap.
Even if Hernandez leads off an inning by getting on base I don’t see him running much if Lindor, Hosey, and Carlos are the next three hitters. He only attempted 11 steals last year in Philly and he was on base over 230 times. He won’t be running here, so speed isn't an issue.
Like sportscoach said we don’t have a “true fitting leadoff guy”, which by your definition is one of the three best hitters on the team with the caveat that he doesn’t hit home runs. Well, we don’t have one of those. Our three best hitters all hit home runs. Kenny Lofton retired. So my solution is to put the one with the best OBP leading off, which is Santana, then put the best overall hitter second, and so on.
The downside is an occasional “wasted” home run. The upside is we get our best OBP guy up to bat to start the game and he gets a lot more plate appearances than the guy who was last in OPS+ last year.
It’s pretty common for a starting pitcher to struggle in the first inning when he’s trying to find his rhythm and command. If he manages to get through the first inning without damage he frequently settles in and pitches 5-6 strong innings. You have to get to him in the first inning when he’s most vulnerable. That’s why I want our three best hitters right out of the gate - put him under maximum pressure immediately, starting with the guy who got on base almost 40% of the time last year. If he leads off the game with a home run - not a problem for us that can’t be overcome, right?
Getting out to an early lead also helps our starter relax and not worry about losing the game on one bad pitch.
Hernandez’ OBP last year when leading off an inning was .317. That won’t cut it. Last year the Phillies gave him 415 AB’s hitting 6 through 9 in the order. He hit .299 with an OBP of .348 in those spots. Hitting leadoff he hit .270 and his OBP was .322. He hit better in the bottom part of the order, almost 30 points better.
In the end I’d prefer to waste a handful of home runs over 162 games than give one of our worst overall hitters more PA’s than anybody. Hernandez had an OBP of .333 last year, he has minimal power, and he doesn’t steal bases. He should be hitting 7th or 8th on this team.