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2020 Lineup Discussion

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That's a waste of Carlos's XBH ability though. There's a balance to strike. You want a high OBP% guy up there, but you don't want him to have too much power. Otherwise, it's a waste. OPS+ doesn't really correlate to being a good lead-off hitter since it factors in SLG%.

Hernandez makes the most sense in the lead-off spot with his career OBP% of .352. His three seasons prior to 2019 saw him post .356, .373 and .371 OBP% with pretty even splits vs LHP and RHP. Out of our options, he's the ideal lead-off hitter.

I will say that although I hate Lindor in the lead-off spot, I fully expect him to bat there as long as he's an Indian. So, I guess most of our discussion is moot.
According to Baseball Reference, Hernandez's OBP the last three seasons was .373, .356, and .333 last year. I don't like the trend. According to OPS+ he's been a below average hitter the last two seasons (94 and 91). Why should he get more plate appearances than guys like Lindor, Hosey, C. Santana, and others who are significantly better hitters?

I hear what you’re saying about wasted home runs. Lindor wasted a lot of them last year. But I’d rather have a great hitter coming up as often as possible and wasting a few home runs than having my 7th or 8th best offensive player getting the most at-bats on the team.

After the first inning Carlos will get plenty of at-bats with runners on.
 
No doubt Domingo is better as a DH than defender in the field when his bat is alive, but I have to ask this question: What would you prefer - Removing Reyes from the field during the final third of the game to insert a better defender (leaving Domingo in the lineup all game as DH) or Removing Domingo from the field during the final third of the game to insert a better defender (leaving Franmil in the lineup all game as DH)???

I think it comes out as a bit of a wash, personally. I think Franmil has better defensive potential & a more impactful bat than Domingo.
 
According to Baseball Reference, Hernandez's OBP the last three seasons was .373, .356, and .333 last year. I don't like the trend. According to OPS+ he's been a below average hitter the last two seasons (94 and 91). Why should he get more plate appearances than guys like Lindor, Hosey, C. Santana, and others who are significantly better hitters?

I hear what you’re saying about wasted home runs. Lindor wasted a lot of them last year. But I’d rather have a great hitter coming up as often as possible and wasting a few home runs than having my 7th or 8th best offensive player getting the most at-bats on the team.

After the first inning Carlos will get plenty of at-bats with runners on.
I don't really care about OPS+ when it comes to my lead-off hitter. That's more of a measure of an all-around hitter. You don't want your best hitter in that spot because it's the only spot in the lineup that is guaranteed to bat with the bases empty at least once each game.

I don't see Hernandez's OBP% as a trend, I see last year as an outlier, which is why I said to look at the three seasons prior to 2019 (2016-2018). He was coming off a career-high walk rate in 2018 (13.4%) after back to back years of it being over 10%, and then it suddenly dropped to 6.7%. That looks like an outlier to me, not a trend. In fact, 2016-18, Hernandez had a better OBP% than Santana in each season.

I want to arrange the lineup in such a way that our best players come to the plate with the most possible guys on base. I believe putting Hernandez in the lead-off spot accomplishes that.

2019
OrderPABases empty% with Bases emptyRunners on% with Runners on
175050266.9%24833.1%
273644360.2%29339.8%
371641558.0%30142.0%
469835651.0%34249.0%
567837455.2%30444.8%
666136254.8%29945.2%
764835955.4%28944.6%
862334054.6%28345.4%
961435858.3%25641.7%

What I have created here is a chart that shows the opportunities each spot in the lineup got on last year's team.

Here is 2018's team
OrderPABases empty% with Bases emptyRunners on% with Runners on
177451967.1%25532.9%
275544058.3%31541.7%
373038853.2%34246.8%
471334047.7%37352.3%
570337653.5%32746.5%
668439657.9%28842.1%
766836354.3%30545.7%
864535054.3%29545.7%
962835456.4%27443.6%

I can't find a way to justify having Santana or Lindor leading off and having such a significantly lower percentage of their plate appearances occur with runners on base.
 
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I think it comes out as a bit of a wash, personally. I think Franmil has better defensive potential & a more impactful bat than Domingo.
Regarding Franmil vs Domingo, we are in agreement. Franmil is ahead of Domingo in both areas.
But we can also agree that Francona will try to upgrade is OF defense late in the game to help out the pitching staff & preserve as many victories as possible. Heck he used Michael Freaking Martinez as a late D replacement in the OF throughout the 2016 season & post-season.

I am not a fan of Delino D jr/ Greg Allen regularly coming in for Franmil as a D sub during the 7th/ 8th inning & losing Franmil's bat from the lineup.

I would rather keep Franmil's bat in the lineup (especially if he is continuing to hit like he did in spring training). As such I DH Franmil and use a loose platoon of Domingo & a late D sub in the outfield..
 
I don't really care about OPS+ when it comes to my lead-off hitter. That's more of a measure of an all-around hitter. You don't want your best hitter in that spot because it's the only spot in the lineup that is guaranteed to bat with the bases empty at least once each game.

I don't see Hernandez's OBP% as a trend, I see last year as an outlier, which is why I said to look at the three seasons prior to 2019 (2016-2018). He was coming off a career-high walk rate in 2018 (13.4%) after back to back years of it being over 10%, and then it suddenly dropped to 6.7%. That looks like an outlier to me, not a trend. In fact, 2016-18, Hernandez had a better OBP% than Santana in each season.

I want to arrange the lineup in such a way that our best players come to the plate with the most possible guys on base. I believe putting Hernandez in the lead-off spot accomplishes that.

2019
OrderPABases empty% with Bases emptyRunners on% with Runners on
175050266.9%24833.1%
273644360.2%29339.8%
371641558.0%30142.0%
469835651.0%34249.0%
567837455.2%30444.8%
666136254.8%29945.2%
764835955.4%28944.6%
862334054.6%28345.4%
961435858.3%25641.7%

What I have created here is a chart that shows the opportunities each spot in the lineup got on last year's team.

Here is 2018's team
OrderPABases empty% with Bases emptyRunners on% with Runners on
177451967.1%25532.9%
275544058.3%31541.7%
373038853.2%34246.8%
471334047.7%37352.3%
570337653.5%32746.5%
668439657.9%28842.1%
766836354.3%30545.7%
864535054.3%29545.7%
962835456.4%27443.6%

I can't find a way to justify having Santana or Lindor leading off and having such a significantly lower percentage of their plate appearances occur with runners on base.
Great work on those charts. I would counter with this column from Baseball Prospectus which makes the point that your best hitter should hit second in the order, and how everybody finally seems to be falling in line. For example, Mike Trout now hits second.

It discusses how foolish the Twins were for many years by giving Nick Punto more plate appearances than Joe Mauer simply because the prevailing wisdom was to bat your best hitters 3rd or 4th so there would be men on base. Is it better to try and get more RBI’s for your best hitters or maximize the run production for the team?

From the column:

The idea behind the shifting identity of no. 2 hitters is a simple one: You want your best hitters batting the most often, and moving from 3-4-5 to no. 2 can equal an extra 30-50 plate appearances per season (and fewer plate appearances with two outs).....

Within the first week of the 2018 season, the following stars batted second at least five times: Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, Kris Bryant, Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Manny Machado, Corey Seager, Anthony Rendon, Christian Yelich, Tommy Pham, Alex Bregman. Others who’ve already batted second multiple times this season: Yoenis Cespedes, Carlos Santana, Wil Myers, Avisail Garcia.

We suddenly seem very far removed from the days of slap-hitting, bat-handling middle infielders occupying the no. 2 spot in nearly every batting order, yet as recently as 10 years ago the idea of traditional “cleanup hitters” like Trout, Donaldson, Bryant, Judge, Cespedes, and Gallo as regulars in the no. 2 spot would have been treated as craziness. Baseball is certainly guilty of being slow to adapt and change in a lot of ways, on and off the field, but once a couple of brave teams were willing to put their best hitters in the no. 2 spot the rest of the league sure followed in a hurry.


So in light of this I’d like to modify my lineup slightly:

Los
Hosey
Lindor
Reyes
Naquin/Luplow
D. Santana
Hernandez
Mercado
Perez

I think Ramirez is the best hitter on the team so I’m batting him second. No way I give Cesar Hernandez more PA’s than Hosey. I’m hitting Carlos leadoff because of his .397 OBP last year. His new approach of hitting up the middle plus his exceptional batting eye makes him a terrific leadoff hitter. The rest of the lineup falls into place after Los and Hosey.
 
Great work on those charts. I would counter with this column from Baseball Prospectus which makes the point that your best hitter should hit second in the order, and how everybody finally seems to be falling in line. For example, Mike Trout now hits second.

It discusses how foolish the Twins were for many years by giving Nick Punto more plate appearances than Joe Mauer simply because the prevailing wisdom was to bat your best hitters 3rd or 4th so there would be men on base. Is it better to try and get more RBI’s for your best hitters or maximize the run production for the team?

From the column:

The idea behind the shifting identity of no. 2 hitters is a simple one: You want your best hitters batting the most often, and moving from 3-4-5 to no. 2 can equal an extra 30-50 plate appearances per season (and fewer plate appearances with two outs).....

Within the first week of the 2018 season, the following stars batted second at least five times: Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, Kris Bryant, Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Manny Machado, Corey Seager, Anthony Rendon, Christian Yelich, Tommy Pham, Alex Bregman. Others who’ve already batted second multiple times this season: Yoenis Cespedes, Carlos Santana, Wil Myers, Avisail Garcia.

We suddenly seem very far removed from the days of slap-hitting, bat-handling middle infielders occupying the no. 2 spot in nearly every batting order, yet as recently as 10 years ago the idea of traditional “cleanup hitters” like Trout, Donaldson, Bryant, Judge, Cespedes, and Gallo as regulars in the no. 2 spot would have been treated as craziness. Baseball is certainly guilty of being slow to adapt and change in a lot of ways, on and off the field, but once a couple of brave teams were willing to put their best hitters in the no. 2 spot the rest of the league sure followed in a hurry.


So in light of this I’d like to modify my lineup slightly:

Los
Hosey
Lindor
Reyes
Naquin/Luplow
D. Santana
Hernandez
Mercado
Perez

I think Ramirez is the best hitter on the team so I’m batting him second. No way I give Cesar Hernandez more PA’s than Hosey. I’m hitting Carlos leadoff because of his .397 OBP last year. His new approach of hitting up the middle plus his exceptional batting eye makes him a terrific leadoff hitter. The rest of the lineup falls into place after Los and Hosey.
I don't understand how that counters my argument. I agree with everything in it. That's why I have Jose hitting second in my lineup as well.

I would like to refer you here:

Lead-Off
The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.

The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.


For me, Hernandez fits that description perfectly. You might question top 3 hitter on the team, but he's projected to have the third-highest OBP% on the team, which means only Carlos and Jose would make fewer outs, but they also have substantially more power.
 
I don't understand how that counters my argument. I agree with everything in it. That's why I have Jose hitting second in my lineup as well.

I would like to refer you here:

Lead-Off
The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.

The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.


For me, Hernandez fits that description perfectly. You might question top 3 hitter on the team, but he's projected to have the third-highest OBP% on the team, which means only Carlos and Jose would make fewer outs, but they also have substantially more power.

To me we dont have a true fitting lead off guy, so its likely Lindor or Hernandez leading off.

Francona though doesnt always go with his best hitter in the two hole (Mercado isnt a two hole type of guy), so I have a hunch it will be Lindor, Hernandez, Jose, Santana, Reyes type of lineup on a regular bases with the rest of the guys filling in behind them
 
To me we dont have a true fitting lead off guy, so its likely Lindor or Hernandez leading off.

Francona though doesnt always go with his best hitter in the two hole (Mercado isnt a two hole type of guy), so I have a hunch it will be Lindor, Hernandez, Jose, Santana, Reyes type of lineup on a regular bases with the rest of the guys filling in behind them
Yeah, I already said Lindor’s going to lead off. Doesn’t mean I have to agree with it.
 
I don't understand how that counters my argument. I agree with everything in it. That's why I have Jose hitting second in my lineup as well.

I would like to refer you here:

Lead-Off
The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.

The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.


For me, Hernandez fits that description perfectly. You might question top 3 hitter on the team, but he's projected to have the third-highest OBP% on the team, which means only Carlos and Jose would make fewer outs, but they also have substantially more power.
I definitely question Hernandez being one of the top three hitters on the team. I would put him behind everybody except Perez and possibly Mercado. In fact, Hernandez ranked dead last in OPS+ last year among all the projected starters in our lineups, including Mercado and even Perez. As you put it, OPS+ measures overall hitting ability whereas OPB only measures the ability to get on base. I don't want my worst, or maybe second or third worst overall hitter getting the most at-bats.

As for speed, which isn't that important in front of power hitters, Hernandez stole nine bases last year. Nobody is playing small ball anymore. Definitely not us.

There was a column on Oscar Mercado the other day that mentioned he was 15-for-19 in stolen bases last year. He said he could have run more but didn’t want to risk getting thrown out with Hosey, Santana, or Reyes at the plate, any of whom can drive him in from first base with a drive into a gap.

Even if Hernandez leads off an inning by getting on base I don’t see him running much if Lindor, Hosey, and Carlos are the next three hitters. He only attempted 11 steals last year in Philly and he was on base over 230 times. He won’t be running here, so speed isn't an issue.

Like sportscoach said we don’t have a “true fitting leadoff guy”, which by your definition is one of the three best hitters on the team with the caveat that he doesn’t hit home runs. Well, we don’t have one of those. Our three best hitters all hit home runs. Kenny Lofton retired. So my solution is to put the one with the best OBP leading off, which is Santana, then put the best overall hitter second, and so on.

The downside is an occasional “wasted” home run. The upside is we get our best OBP guy up to bat to start the game and he gets a lot more plate appearances than the guy who was last in OPS+ last year.

It’s pretty common for a starting pitcher to struggle in the first inning when he’s trying to find his rhythm and command. If he manages to get through the first inning without damage he frequently settles in and pitches 5-6 strong innings. You have to get to him in the first inning when he’s most vulnerable. That’s why I want our three best hitters right out of the gate - put him under maximum pressure immediately, starting with the guy who got on base almost 40% of the time last year. If he leads off the game with a home run - not a problem for us that can’t be overcome, right?

Getting out to an early lead also helps our starter relax and not worry about losing the game on one bad pitch.

Hernandez’ OBP last year when leading off an inning was .317. That won’t cut it. Last year the Phillies gave him 415 AB’s hitting 6 through 9 in the order. He hit .299 with an OBP of .348 in those spots. Hitting leadoff he hit .270 and his OBP was .322. He hit better in the bottom part of the order, almost 30 points better.

In the end I’d prefer to waste a handful of home runs over 162 games than give one of our worst overall hitters more PA’s than anybody. Hernandez had an OBP of .333 last year, he has minimal power, and he doesn’t steal bases. He should be hitting 7th or 8th on this team.
 
The difference in opinion here is those of us advocating Hernandez for the lead off spot are doing so with the idea that his walk rate returns to its "norm". If you don't think he can become that player again, I think it's perfectly fair to not want him in the lead off spot. But even last year, in a down year, he would've ranked 4th on this team in OBP among players with 250+ PA. 1 player being Luplow who barely qualified and another being Lindor, who only beat him out by .002

In the most respectful manner possible, I could not care less about his batting order splits
 
I definitely question Hernandez being one of the top three hitters on the team. I would put him behind everybody except Perez and possibly Mercado. In fact, Hernandez ranked dead last in OPS+ last year among all the projected starters in our lineups, including Mercado and even Perez. As you put it, OPS+ measures overall hitting ability whereas OPB only measures the ability to get on base. I don't want my worst, or maybe second or third worst overall hitter getting the most at-bats.

As for speed, which isn't that important in front of power hitters, Hernandez stole nine bases last year. Nobody is playing small ball anymore. Definitely not us.

There was a column on Oscar Mercado the other day that mentioned he was 15-for-19 in stolen bases last year. He said he could have run more but didn’t want to risk getting thrown out with Hosey, Santana, or Reyes at the plate, any of whom can drive him in from first base with a drive into a gap.

Even if Hernandez leads off an inning by getting on base I don’t see him running much if Lindor, Hosey, and Carlos are the next three hitters. He only attempted 11 steals last year in Philly and he was on base over 230 times. He won’t be running here, so speed isn't an issue.

Like sportscoach said we don’t have a “true fitting leadoff guy”, which by your definition is one of the three best hitters on the team with the caveat that he doesn’t hit home runs. Well, we don’t have one of those. Our three best hitters all hit home runs. Kenny Lofton retired. So my solution is to put the one with the best OBP leading off, which is Santana, then put the best overall hitter second, and so on.

The downside is an occasional “wasted” home run. The upside is we get our best OBP guy up to bat to start the game and he gets a lot more plate appearances than the guy who was last in OPS+ last year.

It’s pretty common for a starting pitcher to struggle in the first inning when he’s trying to find his rhythm and command. If he manages to get through the first inning without damage he frequently settles in and pitches 5-6 strong innings. You have to get to him in the first inning when he’s most vulnerable. That’s why I want our three best hitters right out of the gate - put him under maximum pressure immediately, starting with the guy who got on base almost 40% of the time last year. If he leads off the game with a home run - not a problem for us that can’t be overcome, right?

Getting out to an early lead also helps our starter relax and not worry about losing the game on one bad pitch.

Hernandez’ OBP last year when leading off an inning was .317. That won’t cut it. Last year the Phillies gave him 415 AB’s hitting 6 through 9 in the order. He hit .299 with an OBP of .348 in those spots. Hitting leadoff he hit .270 and his OBP was .322. He hit better in the bottom part of the order, almost 30 points better.

In the end I’d prefer to waste a handful of home runs over 162 games than give one of our worst overall hitters more PA’s than anybody. Hernandez had an OBP of .333 last year, he has minimal power, and he doesn’t steal bases. He should be hitting 7th or 8th on this team.
I'm getting a little frustrated because I feel like you're ignoring some parts of my posts.

I have stated multiple times that I don't care about OPS+ when determining my lead-off hitter. OBP% is far more important to me because OPS+ accounts for SLG% which is completely meaningless when measuring how good somebody is as a lead-off hitter. I simply care about who is going to be on base most often for the guys behind him.

I don't care much at all about how fast my lead-off hitter is. So, I'm not sure why you brought up base stealing.

Batting order and situational splits are also completely meaningless to me. It's simply too small of sample size and you'll find that the correlation between them and future performance in those areas is close to non-existent.

I have posted a lot of evidence to support my argument. I'm really not sure how you can advocate for Santana or Lindor or Jose in the lead-off spot over Hernandez when you see the numbers I laid out in front of you. The difference between leading off and batting 4th is about 100 extra PA with runners on base for the 4th hitter and about 55 extra PA overall for the lead-off hitter.

Hernandez is about a .350 OBP% guy and Santana is about a .370 OBP% guy. However, when you account for their HR, Santana is actually on base about 33% of the time and Hernandez is on base almost 34% of the time. The difference between those numbers and their OBP% is their HR, which are far more likely to be solo shots in the lead-off spot.
 
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The difference in opinion here is those of us advocating Hernandez for the lead off spot are doing so with the idea that his walk rate returns to its "norm". If you don't think he can become that player again, I think it's perfectly fair to not want him in the lead off spot. But even last year, in a down year, he would've ranked 4th on this team in OBP among players with 250+ PA. 1 player being Luplow who barely qualified and another being Lindor, who only beat him out by .002

In the most respectful manner possible, I could not care less about his batting order splits

He also posted by far his highest swing% season since becoming a full time player last year, on top of his highest contact%. Bad combination while posting his career average BABIP for pumping up a good OBP. His swing percentage spike makes it look like he was asked to be more aggressive swinging the bat, and I am willing to bet he was coming off of a 15 HR season and the Phillies seeing some power potential from an up the middle switch hitter, which is always attractive.

Regardless of who is leadoff, I think the one thing everyone can agree on is we are wasting a lot of what Lindor can do as a hitter batting him leadoff. A guy consistently hitting 30+ HRs a season should not see 400/600 of his ABs come with no one on base. That's just gross misuse of a piece like that, and we have done that in 3 straight seasons now. For comparisons sake, Jose Ramirez who has been our 3 hitter the majority of our ABs over the last 3 years has averaged ~300/600 ABs with no one on base. Seems like a no brainer to give Lindor an extra 100 ABs with a runner on base.

I believe last years OBP numbers for Hernandez don't give any indication on how he would do with the Indians, because I believe he was asked to swing more last year by the Phillies. Why I am still all for this top 4:

Hernandez
Santana
Lindor
Ramirez

But the reality is, I'm all for anything that has Lindor hitting 3rd and seeing 100+ more ABs with runners on than he has on average the last 3 years. Plus, 4 straight switch hitters would be a nightmare to manage against late in games with the new bullpen rules.
 
I get the idea of 4 consecutive switch hitters being appealing but I am not thrilled with the idea of 5 consecutive RH hitters vs RHP the rest of the way.
CF - Mercado (RH), both Catchers (RH), LF-RF-DH in some alignment - Luplow, Domingo Santana, Franmil Reyes (all RH).

That stretch of 5 RH would be just as vulnerable to a specialist as the switch hitters would be a nightmare for the opposing manager..
 
I get the idea of 4 consecutive switch hitters being appealing but I am not thrilled with the idea of 5 consecutive RH hitters vs RHP the rest of the way.
CF - Mercado (RH), both Catchers (RH), LF-RF-DH in some alignment - Luplow, Domingo Santana, Franmil Reyes (all RH).

That stretch of 5 RH would be just as vulnerable to a specialist as the switch hitters would be a nightmare for the opposing manager..
That's what Leon, Bobby Bradley, and Naquin are for.

I would expect 1-2 of them in the lineup against every righty.
 
Yeah, why would we not continue to platoon the rest of the lineup?

Indians are always left-handed heavy with their lineups vs RHPs...no reason to think that would just stop.

Also, 2 of those 5 players you listed (Mercado, albeit with a small sample size, and Domingo Santana) have had either similar or superior stats vs RHP than LHP in their careers. Only guys with a sizable drop off are Perez and Reyes.
 

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