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Trade Deadline Day - 2020

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I actually do not mind the trade at all. Indians are pretty good at choosing arms and Quantril's original scouting report:


That says Indians type of pitcher to me. I think with Cleveland staff when it comes to helping develop pitchers, he should be fine here. Not sure how Cleveland will use him this season, but looks like a starter long term.

Owen Miller was actually the type of bat I wanted Cleveland to draft and from his scouting reports, I think he may be a good match in the INF with Freeman hitting wise in the lineup
 
Roster resources say the Rule 5 roster date is Miller Dec 21, Arias Dec 20 and Cantillo Dec 21 .... my point in another post that I will try to update is we have a lot of good talent coming Due in 2021 as that is our Valera, Bracho and Rocchio year ... I said in Future Needs thread that we needed 2-1 type trades for Lindor and Clevinger due to this .... and we did 6-2 and I was assuming Allen would be dumped at that after next year. So, we are going to lose players potentially ... good players .... Give me an hour and I show how it will work. Again ... needed Quality not Quantity ...

With the holes we’ll need to fill on the MLB roster during the offseason(Lindor, Hand, Cesar, possibly Carlos, OF, possibly a rotation spot or two) I think it’s likely that some of this milb surplus, whether our existing guys or these newcomers, will be packaged in 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deals for higher impact low service time guys or better prospects who are roadblocked by young superstars in their current org.
 
So Naylor in left, Naquin/Luplow platoon in right. Leon and and Domingo released? Any chance we go after a centerfielder to make Deshields our 4th OF?
I still like the idea of adding Pillar or Bradley...incremental adds, but probably cheap, too.
 
Roster resources say the Rule 5 roster date is Miller Dec 21, Arias Dec 20 and Cantillo Dec 21 .... my point in another post that I will try to update is we have a lot of good talent coming Due in 2021 as that is our Valera, Bracho and Rocchio year ... I said in Future Needs thread that we needed 2-1 type trades for Lindor and Clevinger due to this .... and we did 6-2 and I was assuming Allen would be dumped at that after next year. So, we are going to lose players potentially ... good players .... Give me an hour and I show how it will work. Again ... needed Quality not Quantity ...

That can't be right...


Miller was drafted in 18, so he isnt rule 5 until 22 since its 4 years for guys 19 and over while its 5 for 18 and younger. What date was Arias signed? He didn't play until 17, so if he signed before the 17 season he isnt Rule 5 until 22 as well. Unless he signed in 15 and didn't play for two season, no way is Arias eligible for Rule 5 in 20. Cantillo was out of High School (so 18 and younger) in 17, making him 22 as well.
 
I still like the idea of adding Pillar or Bradley...incremental adds, but probably cheap, too.
Would like to add a CF that would be an upgrade over what we currently have on the roster.
 
We needed a left-handed hitting outfielder immediately and got one. How good Naylor turns out to be is the question. He only has 144 major league at-bats with a career line of .253/.720 and he's only 23. Hopes he's not the next Jake Bauer.

I noticed we got two shortstops in the deal, one of whom (Miller) was described as close to major league ready at age 23. Hmmm...could they be secretly working on a deal for Lindor? Probably not, but it looks like Miller and Chang will compete for the job next year until Bracho or somebody else emerges.

Cantillo looks like a pretty good left-handed starting prospect to add to the mix that includes Logan Allen and Hentges.

Quantrill looks like an upgrade over Pluto as the new #6 starter. He had an ERA of 5.16 last year with 18 starts and five relief appearances. In his five games out of the bullpen hitters were 6-for-39 against him. Could be his stuff plays up much better in the pen. He was very good against righties but lefties hit him hard (.290/.848). Maybe the Indians saw something in him that they can improve like they did with Maton after he came over.

Fangraphs first take on the deal:

For Cleveland, the deal looks to be more quantity than quality. Quantrill was a bigger name a few years ago, and has pitched mostly in relief this season. Naylor exhausted his rookie eligibility last year, and hasn’t hit well, but still possesses a ton of power. Arias is a 20-year-old shortstop with a solid glove who put up a decent season in High-A a year ago. Cantillo is a 20-year-old lefty who put up mostly good numbers in Low-A last season. Miller is a 23-year-old shortstop without a strong glove who put up decent in Double-A a year ago. Hedges is the lone veteran on the list, made expendable by the trades for Jason Castro and Austin Nola. He can’t hit, but is a very good receiver.

Here's some stuff from a Fangraphs column publishied in April:

Joey Cantillo, LHP (12th)

Because he shares mechanical similarities with many pitchers whose fastballs overachieve relative to their velocity, I’m fairly confident that Cantillo can succeed even if his heater continues to live in the 87-91 mph range, though because he’s a big-framed 20-year-old, he may yet throw harder. If that’s the case, he could have a dominant fastball. He also has a changeup that is plus right now. Not only does it have bat-missing movement but Cantillo’s arm speed really sells hitters on the notion that they’re getting a fastball; A-ball bats flailed at it in 2019. The carry on his fastball enables Cantillo to compete for swinging strikes in the zone, and that, plus his ability to throw lots of competitively-located changeups mean he can work back into any count. His breaking ball usage is ahead of its quality, something that might change if Cantillo does start throwing harder and adds power to his curve. The breaking ball and development of velo are now the two variables driving Cantillo’s potential future FV movement, but for now I think he has the tools to go right at hitters and be a No. 4/5 starter.

Garbriel Arias, SS (16th)

Arias looks like a stud at 5 o’clock when he’s taking batting practice and infield, but his in-game swing decisions have been a problem, and were even during a statistically impressive 2019. The Padres threw every developmental trick in the book at him during the offseason, including virtual reality training, to try to get him to better identify balls from strikes and chase less often. In a small spring sample, it appeared to be working — Arias played some spring games in the place of Fernando Tatis Jr., who was one of several Padres to miss time with flu-like symptoms during the spring (tugs collar) before baseball shut down. The importance of Arias’ approach extends beyond his on base ability to his power production. His swing is grooved, making the parts of the zone where he can do real damage limited, so for Arias to get to his power in games he’s not only going to have to recognize balls and strikes, but also learn what he can actually hit. It’s possible this will occur, and Arias will be a star if it does, but I think an Orlando Arcia trajectory, where there are growing pains and frustration amid flashes of spectacle, is more likely.

Owen Miller, SS (25th)

The wave of teenage talent currently at Hi-A drove San Diego to push Miller straight to Double-A to start his first full season, and he rose to the occasion, hitting .290/.355/.430 with more power than the industry anticipated. A minimalistic swing enables him to make high rates of contact, while the strength in Miller’s hands generates doubles power. It’s not an exciting, athletic style of hitting but on an inoffensive, fundamentally sound defensive shortstop, it’s a pretty interesting skillset. Barring a significant swing change, Miller’s offensive output will likely cap his ceiling in the 40/45 FV range, but for a third round pick who moves quickly, that’s a great outcome.
 
It's a great job to get him moved for an acceptable package in this climate. I'm not going to pretend to know prospects well enough to judge any of the guys we got back. I'm fairly certain this was the max value we could have gotten for Clevinger--otherwise we wouldn't have made the deal.

Of this, I am pretty certain -- they took the best package that was offered, but more than that -- they really liked a number of theses guys. They have scouted the Padres system extensively and they know what they are buying. How many of these guys will perform? We'll see...
 
Naylor is likely to be better, even if marginally, than most of the OF dreck we've been running out there.

If we trust Pleasac again and he and McKenzie can be not too far off what Clev was giving us, I actually see a way this makes us slightly better this year.

Even if not, Clev had only pitched 22 innings this year and his peripherals were iffy. 2+ years of Clev is worth something, but he wasn't instrumental in our success so far this year.
 
I don't really see how anyone can say this trade makes the Indians better in 2020.

It may very well make them better in 2021 and beyond, perhaps significantly so, but unless Naylor has an unexpected breakout with the change of scenery, the Indians are a worse team right now than they were yesterday for this 2020.

Still a few hours to go though.
 
love those guys who have "minimalistic swings"
 
We needed a left-handed hitting outfielder immediately and got one. How good Naylor turns out to be is the question. He only has 144 major league at-bats with a career line of .253/.720 and he's only 23. Hopes he's not the next Jake Bauer.

I noticed we got two shortstops in the deal, one of whom (Miller) was described as close to major league ready at age 23. Hmmm...could they be secretly working on a deal for Lindor? Probably not, but it looks like Miller and Chang will compete for the job next year until Bracho or somebody else emerges.

Cantillo looks like a pretty good left-handed starting prospect to add to the mix that includes Logan Allen and Hentges.

Quantrill looks like an upgrade over Pluto as the new #6 starter. He had an ERA of 5.16 last year with 18 starts and five relief appearances. In his five games out of the bullpen hitters were 6-for-39 against him. Could be his stuff plays up much better in the pen. He was very good against righties but lefties hit him hard (.290/.848). Maybe the Indians saw something in him that they can improve like they did with Maton after he came over.

Fangraphs first take on the deal:

For Cleveland, the deal looks to be more quantity than quality. Quantrill was a bigger name a few years ago, and has pitched mostly in relief this season. Naylor exhausted his rookie eligibility last year, and hasn’t hit well, but still possesses a ton of power. Arias is a 20-year-old shortstop with a solid glove who put up a decent season in High-A a year ago. Cantillo is a 20-year-old lefty who put up mostly good numbers in Low-A last season. Miller is a 23-year-old shortstop without a strong glove who put up decent in Double-A a year ago. Hedges is the lone veteran on the list, made expendable by the trades for Jason Castro and Austin Nola. He can’t hit, but is a very good receiver.

Here's some stuff from a Fangraphs column publishied in April:

Joey Cantillo, LHP (12th)

Because he shares mechanical similarities with many pitchers whose fastballs overachieve relative to their velocity, I’m fairly confident that Cantillo can succeed even if his heater continues to live in the 87-91 mph range, though because he’s a big-framed 20-year-old, he may yet throw harder. If that’s the case, he could have a dominant fastball. He also has a changeup that is plus right now. Not only does it have bat-missing movement but Cantillo’s arm speed really sells hitters on the notion that they’re getting a fastball; A-ball bats flailed at it in 2019. The carry on his fastball enables Cantillo to compete for swinging strikes in the zone, and that, plus his ability to throw lots of competitively-located changeups mean he can work back into any count. His breaking ball usage is ahead of its quality, something that might change if Cantillo does start throwing harder and adds power to his curve. The breaking ball and development of velo are now the two variables driving Cantillo’s potential future FV movement, but for now I think he has the tools to go right at hitters and be a No. 4/5 starter.

Garbriel Arias, SS (16th)

Arias looks like a stud at 5 o’clock when he’s taking batting practice and infield, but his in-game swing decisions have been a problem, and were even during a statistically impressive 2019. The Padres threw every developmental trick in the book at him during the offseason, including virtual reality training, to try to get him to better identify balls from strikes and chase less often. In a small spring sample, it appeared to be working — Arias played some spring games in the place of Fernando Tatis Jr., who was one of several Padres to miss time with flu-like symptoms during the spring (tugs collar) before baseball shut down. The importance of Arias’ approach extends beyond his on base ability to his power production. His swing is grooved, making the parts of the zone where he can do real damage limited, so for Arias to get to his power in games he’s not only going to have to recognize balls and strikes, but also learn what he can actually hit. It’s possible this will occur, and Arias will be a star if it does, but I think an Orlando Arcia trajectory, where there are growing pains and frustration amid flashes of spectacle, is more likely.

Owen Miller, SS (25th)

The wave of teenage talent currently at Hi-A drove San Diego to push Miller straight to Double-A to start his first full season, and he rose to the occasion, hitting .290/.355/.430 with more power than the industry anticipated. A minimalistic swing enables him to make high rates of contact, while the strength in Miller’s hands generates doubles power. It’s not an exciting, athletic style of hitting but on an inoffensive, fundamentally sound defensive shortstop, it’s a pretty interesting skillset. Barring a significant swing change, Miller’s offensive output will likely cap his ceiling in the 40/45 FV range, but for a third round pick who moves quickly, that’s a great outcome.
Doesn't change your point, but he's actually had over 300 MLB plate appearances. Not sure where the 144 AB came from.
 
I don't really see how anyone can say this trade makes the Indians better in 2020.

It may very well make them better in 2021 and beyond, perhaps significantly so, but unless Naylor has an unexpected breakout with the change of scenery, the Indians are a worse team right now than they were yesterday for this 2020.

Still a few hours to go though.
I guess it depends on if you think Naylor adds more to the lineup as a Mike Freeman/Greg Allen replacement than what you lose in the rotation going from: Bieber-Clev-Cookie-Civale-Plesac to Bieber-Cookie-Civale-Plesac-McKenzie.
 
LetsGoTribe had this on Naylor:


What is with the Indians infatuation with huge Padres' outfielders? First it was Reyes and now Naylor who is listed at 5'11", 250 pounds. He has played outfield and first base. Are we trying to re-do the Jake Bauers deal and get it right this time?

Naylor walks a lot according to the column. Could he be the next Carlos Santana at first base?

From the column...

...he’s produced very good numbers at every level of baseball he’s played while being about two years younger than the average player.

Petco is a notoriously brutal ballpark for hitters and was the third-lowest overall in offensive park factors in 2019. Progressive Field is heaven by comparison, especially for left-handed hitters. Naylor goes from a bottom of the barrel to a cream of the crop run scoring environment for lefties.


Maybe he will turn out to be a "sneaky good acquisition" for the Tribe much like Phil Maton is turning out to be.
 

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