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2021 NBA Draft Safari

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I'mWithDan said:
Max is someone who looks good across the board to me as well. I added 10 or so guys last night and he was the only good value type.

I’ll have to add some of these other guys you listed. I see a pretty big cliff in this draft around the early to mid second. I think the top 40-45 has a ton of quality......but after about 75 prospects entered, it strangely lacks the number of interesting later round / UDFA types like a Paul Reed from last year.
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Definitely think Carr is worth a closer look...his teammates were absolute hot garbage (at least on offense). They lost 3 starters from last year, including leading scorer Oturu, leaving just Carr and shooting specialist Kalscheur, who shot a red-hot 24.5% from 3 before getting injured. Overall Minny shot just 28% from 3, easily the worst mark by any major conference team this year. It's remarkable that Carr was able to create as much offense as he did amidst such a dumpster fire, and you have to wonder what he might've done on a good team.

ACC POY and DPOY teammates Wright and Alvarado were riding an 8-game win streak into the tournament...then Wright got corona and they drew Loyola in the first round. Ooof. Again, wonder what might've been.

Mayer's story has already been told. I don't think he's THE big sleeper some people think he is, but definitely a guy with an NBA future.

Vrenz is basically a poor man's Josh Giddey. A towering, rail-thin point guard with a streaky jumpshot and some defensive playmaking ability.

Diop is in a similar situation to Garuba, a teenage big struggling to crack the rotation for a very good ACB league team. He certainly looks the part of an NBA big with a lean, athletic 6'11" frame. As with Garuba, he's prized more for his versatility than his rim protection, with a nose for the ball and fluid athleticism to step out and guard perimeter players.
 
Is Davion Mitchell top 10 really a thing now? I don't see that at all, but now Givony has him there too.
 
howler1313 said:
Is Davion Mitchell top 10 really a thing now? I don't see that at all, but now Givony has him there too.
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I can see it relative to a few things.....

Athletically, he does just stand out, quickness wise. He just blows past guys with his 1st step. His dramatic shooting improvement has made him a two way player, something that is more rare at the PG position. Guys who can both defend at a high level and provide offensive value. He's tough, plays exceptionally hard and will have all the intangibles teams want. He year over year got better shooting, scoring and assisting.

I think his shooting would be the big one......as even though he is older, he has already gone through the shooting improvement you might hope for from someone like an Okoro like prospect for example. What are the odds a younger, more raw prospect becomes a 40% shooter at volume? And what developmental guy can honestly be expected to become such a good shooter off the dribble as well, like Mitchell has shown?

I don't love him, as his scoring efficiency is really suppressed by his inability to draw fouls and him being a so-so FT shooter but if you see that improving in a more open, transition friendly league like the NBA, I could see how NBA teams would really like him. Relative to how well he has shot from the field, it is incredibly strange he has only eeked out marginal improvement as a FT shooter.

Once you get past the top 5 guys, I could be talked in to just about anyone from that next pool of 10-12 players, which I think Mitchell is in.
 
howler1313 said:
Is Davion Mitchell top 10 really a thing now? I don't see that at all, but now Givony has him there too.
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I was in on Mitchell before the tournament. I have him in the 7-10 range currently, so similar to Givony.

What strikes me about Mitchell is his explosiveness. He just gets to the rim so easily and plays with some fire. His yearly improvements are also impressive. 29% -> 32% -> 45% from three on increased volume, 5.9 -> 7.0 -> 9.6 assists per 100 possessions, 1.7 -> 2.7 -> 3.3 steals per 100 possessions.

He's fast, explosive, gets to the rim, can shoot, has terrific footwork and balance to get off tough shots, gets after it defensively, and has the alpha dog in him that makes it easy to see him thrive in the NBA.

I don't think he works with Sexland. But I do think a team in the late lottery will be thrilled to land him.
 
I'mWithDan said:
I can see it relative to a few things.....

Athletically, he does just stand out, quickness wise. He just blows past guys with his 1st step. His dramatic shooting improvement has made him a two way player, something that is more rare at the PG position. Guys who can both defend at a high level and provide offensive value. He's tough, plays exceptionally hard and will have all the intangibles teams want. He year over year got better shooting, scoring and assisting.

I think his shooting would be the big one......as even though he is older, he has already gone through the shooting improvement you might hope for from someone like an Okoro like prospect for example. What are the odds a younger, more raw prospect becomes a 40% shooter at volume? And what developmental guy can honestly be expected to become such a good shooter off the dribble as well, like Mitchell has shown?

I don't love him, as his scoring efficiency is really suppressed by his inability to draw fouls and him being a so-so FT shooter but if you see that improving in a more open, transition friendly league like the NBA, I could see how NBA teams would really like him. Relative to how well he has shot from the field, it is incredibly strange he has only eeked out marginal improvement as a FT shooter.

Once you get past the top 5 guys, I could be talked in to just about anyone from that next pool of 10-12 players, which I think Mitchell is in.
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Issue with him is his inability to reliably apply his athleticism on offense. As you said, he doesn't draw many fouls, and he doesn't get many offensive rebounds either...it's really hard to find examples of prospects like that who went on to be good slashers at the NBA level.

Of course, the ability to pass, hit 3's, and play defense is already a really useful combination of skills. And the underrated benefit of drafting an older guy is that you get his prime years right away, when he's still on his rookie deal. Overall he projects, on my draft rater, to be a perfectly league-average player, which typically corresponds to a draft position in the 20's.
 
I’m assuming it relates to Donovan Mitchell and to a lesser degree Terry Rozier.

Really athletic 6’1-6’2” undersized shooting guards who who went outside the top10 and then pretty severely outperformed the majority of more prototype sized guards who went before them in their draft classes.

Whether correct or not, it’s an easy to package and sell narrative for some front offices looking for a player with closer to certain short term impact rather than a long term play on a prototype sized guard who needs more polish or lacks a critical skill
 
MirORich said:
I’m assuming it relates to Donovan Mitchell and to a lesser degree Terry Rozier.

Really athletic 6’1-6’2” undersized shooting guards who who went outside the top10 and then pretty severely outperformed the majority of more prototype sized guards who went before them in their draft classes.

Whether correct or not, it’s an easy to package and sell narrative for some front offices looking for a player with closer to certain short term impact rather than a long term play on a prototype sized guard who needs more polish or lacks a critical skill
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To some extent......but I think most would be surprised to see that Mitchell was a 9.6 AST per 100 player. He went from 5.9 to 7 to 9.6. That is amazing progression for someone. To increase their assist rate by 40%.

I honestly think he has the skills to be a true PG, if he sees FT shooting improvement. That is the one hangup for me......is it is tough to trust him handling the ball late in close games, if he can't put them away at the line.

Nathan S said:
Issue with him is his inability to reliably apply his athleticism on offense. As you said, he doesn't draw many fouls, and he doesn't get many offensive rebounds either...it's really hard to find examples of prospects like that who went on to be good slashers at the NBA level.
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Zach Lavine is one. That had the combination of sub par OREB / FTR. It isn't ideal but other guys that had similar OREB / FTR profiles recently like Halliburton. As long as the guy is a good 3PT shooter and takes enough volume, it seems like they can succeed without it or develop in to better foul producers. Not a guarantee but at least a few guys landed in those zones and still went on to be good NBA guards.
 
I'mWithDan said:
To some extent......but I think most would be surprised to see that Mitchell was a 9.6 AST per 100 player. He went from 5.9 to 7 to 9.6. That is amazing progression for someone. To increase their assist rate by 40%.

I honestly think he has the skills to be a true PG, if he sees FT shooting improvement. That is the one hangup for me......is it is tough to trust him handling the ball late in close games, if he can't put them away at the line.



Zach Lavine is one. That had the combination of sub par OREB / FTR. It isn't ideal but other guys that had similar OREB / FTR profiles recently like Halliburton. As long as the guy is a good 3PT shooter and takes enough volume, it seems like they can succeed without it or develop in to better foul producers. Not a guarantee but at least a few guys landed in those zones and still went on to be good NBA guards.
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LaVine is one, but then you're comparing LaVine's age-18 college season to Mitchell's age-22 season. Similarly with Haliburton, the season he lagged in both FT rate and Oreb rate was his 18-year-old freshman season. With those guys, there's the ready excuse that they're still developing physically...Mitchell has no such excuse. He is who he is, and he's a solid player, but probably not on his way to be a high-volume offensive threat at the next level.
 
With the Cavs getting some pieces back, I would expect them to fall within the 7-9 range record wise and likely pick outside the top-5... If that's the case, the discussion really shifts from the top-5 (Mobley, Suggs, Cunningham, Green, Kumgina) to what role player would be best suited on this current roster..

I think OKC will continue to slide down the standings, while Toronto and Sacramento are likely to be within the same range as the Cavs of not quite being good enough for a play-in game but having just enough talent to keep them out of the bottom... We may see some movement with Minnesota and Washington but I don't know how much they can move from outside the top-5 with their rosters --- perhaps Minnesota more than Washington...

If they aren't able to land a guard (Suggs, Cunningham or Green) or Mobley, I think any one host of players could be in consideration but would strongly lean/prefer someone with consistent shooting ability and size... A playmaker off the bench would be ideal but do guys like Barnes/Giddey shoot well enough? Does Mitchell have enough size? Does Wagner have any elite skills? What is Jalen Johnson's ceiling? Moody and Kispert attract me from the shooting perspective and Springer from the playmaking perspective, but are those guys you take in the 7-9 range?

Joel Ayayi, Jared Butler, Chris Duarte are a couple of guys I'm keeping my eye on towards the end of the first, and Quentin Grimes and Herbert Jones in the 2nd...
 
Smooth said:
With the Cavs getting some pieces back, I would expect them to fall within the 7-9 range record wise and likely pick outside the top-5... If that's the case, the discussion really shifts from the top-5 (Mobley, Suggs, Cunningham, Green, Kumgina) to what role player would be best suited on this current roster..

I think OKC will continue to slide down the standings, while Toronto and Sacramento are likely to be within the same range as the Cavs of not quite being good enough for a play-in game but having just enough talent to keep them out of the bottom... We may see some movement with Minnesota and Washington but I don't know how much they can move from outside the top-5 with their rosters --- perhaps Minnesota more than Washington...

If they aren't able to land a guard (Suggs, Cunningham or Green) or Mobley, I think any one host of players could be in consideration but would strongly lean/prefer someone with consistent shooting ability and size... A playmaker off the bench would be ideal but do guys like Barnes/Giddey shoot well enough? Does Mitchell have enough size? Does Wagner have any elite skills? What is Jalen Johnson's ceiling? Moody and Kispert attract me from the shooting perspective and Springer from the playmaking perspective, but are those guys you take in the 7-9 range?

Joel Ayayi, Jared Butler, Chris Duarte are a couple of guys I'm keeping my eye on towards the end of the first, and Quentin Grimes and Herbert Jones in the 2nd...
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Here's my projected shooting impact vs. height, for players 6'5"+, if you want to explore the universe of players who meet those requirements:

HwUvK.png
 
Derek said:
The ceiling is the roof for Quentin Grimes
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Yeah...other than maybe Abmas, he was the best 3-point shooter in all of college basketball last year. And at 20 years old, he may still be improving. Factor in his solid size and athleticism for the SG position, and it's very easy to see him being a positive-impact roleplayer.
 
kriegs said:
I do like Moody in real life even if it's more of an 8-12 range pick. He just needs to stick to what he's good at. I know you guys probably watched more games than me but every time I saw him, he's just trying to do more than he's comfortable with since the team depends on him for points. He has the skills to be a 3&D Mikal Bridges type off the bat with some good coaching in his ear. Needs to reign it in and let others create his shot for him.

I more so picked him based on my playing style in the video game over who I'd want real-life Koby to pull the trigger on. I'm thinking Moody's spot-up shooting and improved size/defense make more sense in the starting lineup between Garland and Okoro. Sexton becomes the Lou Will sparkplug playing 30 mins a game off the bench. It's a lot to ask of Garland to create for Moody and Okoro, but in 2k it will work well. At least one of them is a decent spot-up shooter.

If I took Barnes, we've got Love/Nance/Prince and Barnes all needing minutes at the 4. I suppose I could deal Love but can't bring myself to do it since no team would want him in real life. So a little short-term bias as well due to the fact I doubt I play out 4 seasons to watch Scottie learn to shoot it.
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Barnes is an interesting option for me given he was basically the point guard for the Seminoles with really solid vision and fluid movement and is pretty much underrated as a scorer because he was held back in that role.
He is the perfect 3 or 4 point forward with more promise as a ball handler then Cade for example.
I just don't like Moody to be more than Oubre at best but I could be missing something I guess
 
Ozone said:
Barnes is an interesting option for me given he was basically the point guard for the Seminoles with really solid vision and fluid movement and is pretty much underrated as a scorer because he was held back in that role.
He is the perfect 3 or 4 point forward with more promise as a ball handler then Cade for example.
I just don't like Moody to be more than Oubre at best but I could be missing something I guess
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What makes Moody interesting, but also risky, is his age. He's basically a full year younger than most of the other top freshmen...given that, it's pretty impressive that he's All-SEC first team when he's really like a high school senior playing in the NCAA. Given another year to develop, he'd very likely be an All-American candidate and still just 19 years old. The team that drafts him will have to be patient, but he could be worth the wait.
 
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