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2021 Minor League Thread

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Its easy to look back in hindsight, but at this point in 2016, fans were saying the same things...and even more...about the prospects we had back then as they are about the ones we have now.

Don't like fangraphs?

How about John Sickels?

He had Bradley as a B+, Chang as a B, and Allen as a B-, with glowing reports for all.

Dont like fangraphs and Sickels?

How about Baseball America?

They had Bradley, Chang, and Allen ranked 4th, 5th, and 10th respectively, even though Allen had broken a hamate.

These guys were highly thought of prospects throughout baseball.

Those that refuse to learn from history and every existent statistical analysis of baseball prospects will suffer the same fate of those multitudinous fans in the mid 2010s of Zimmer, Frazier, Naquin, Allen, Chang, Mejia, EGonz,and Bradley....including the MLB GMs who valued them to the point of lunacy.
 
Its easy to look back in hindsight, but at this point in 2016, fans were saying the same things...and even more...about the prospects we had back then as they are about the ones we have now.

Don't like fangraphs?

How about John Sickels?

He had Bradley as a B+, Chang as a B, and Allen as a B-, with glowing reports for all.

Dont like fangraphs and Sickels?

How about Baseball America?

They had Bradley, Chang, and Allen ranked 4th, 5th, and 10th respectively, even though Allen had broken a hamate.

These guys were highly thought of prospects throughout baseball.

Those that refuse to learn from history and every existent statistical analysis of baseball prospects will suffer the same fate of those multitudinous fans in the mid 2010s of Zimmer, Frazier, Naquin, Allen, Chang, Mejia, EGonz,and Bradley....including the MLB GMs who valued them to the point of lunacy.
Being ranked 10th in our organization means nothing.

You can be ranked 10th out of a group of failures, and you're still a failure.

Valuation isn't linear and fluid. There can be a steep drop-off from one guy on a list to the next, and the valuation of prospect #10 in an organization one year can differ wildly from the valuation of prospect #10 in another year.

But hey, to play your game, here was Baseball Prospectus's top 10 in our org from January of 2016:


  1. OF Bradley Zimmer
  2. LHP Brady Aiken
  3. OF Clint Frazier
  4. LHP Justus Sheffield
  5. 1B Bobby Bradley
  6. LHP Rob Kaminsky
  7. RHP Triston McKenzie
  8. LHP Juan Hillman
  9. C Francisco Mejia
  10. OF Mike Papi
Even if you take them as accurately ranking the trade value of each player (which I don't) I'd say there is a sharp drop-off right there between 9 and 10. Francisco Mejia had tremendous value around baseball, and Mike Papi, at that time, did not.

This article from Fangraphs in 2016 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-cleveland-indians/ has Zimmer, Frazier and McKenzie as our top 3, which I would say was fairly accurate at the time. Greg Allen is ranked 16th, down with guys who just never had any value like Adam Plutko and Luigi Rodriguez.

If you want to claim that Greg Allen was worth the same amount as George Valera, you're welcome to that opinion. I just don't think you're correct at all. I see Valera's value far closer to Francisco Mejia's, who had the ability to be the primary piece in a deal.
 
Baseball America:
Jones - 37
Freeman - 72

Although, as @BimboColesHair (I think), has stated before, the Tribe's prospects tend to fly under the radar because of how the organization operates. Also, nobody has had eyes on anyone really since 2019.

National publications like BA, Fangraphs, and MLB.com always lack because of man power. The way MLB.com compiles their prospect grades, for example, is 1 person is assigned a franchises minor league system to scout. That's great and all, but 1 person for what used to be 7 different levels ain't going to get you much between AAA, AA, A+, A, SS A, AZL, and DOSL. Not exactly going to get in-depth there. You'll get to see a position player maybe play 20 games in a season and a starter make 4 or 5 starts.

So some teams started sending out scouting videos of prospects to those publications to help build up the hype for fans, etc. which led to more exposure for those teams in comparison to a team like the Indians, who do not like giving anyone video or info on their prospects. You want info on those guys, for the most part the Indians make you come and watch their players yourselves.

That's how a guy who posted a 2.66 ERA over 277 IP in the minors "came out of nowhere" to become one of the better pitchers in baseball while never sniffing a top 100 list.

If your team has a dedicated publication that focuses its entire attention on just one organization you can get some real in-depth stuff. If not, trusting national publications now-a-days with how many games are played, how many leagues there are, and how much minors teams travel it is just tough to get good, accurate info out to fans.
 
Literally no one said "we don't like Fangraphs or John Sickels or Baseball America".

Point is pretty simple. If you think those 3 publications (2 now since Sickels retired) hold any weight in MLB front offices on how they value their own or other organizations prospects, I have some bad news.

Those sites are/were great for fans who don't have time to dive deep into the huge depths of minor league baseball to see who might be coming up for their favorite team soon in a quick fashion, but that's about the extent of it.
 
Yeah, I love FG too and Longenhagen is doing an admirable job, but he's always undervalued college draft pick performers, mostly because of age/level. He somehow downgraded Sandlin to a fringe 35+, that'll quickly be another miss....after Bieber, Civale, Plesac and he was late on Karinchak too, though 50 FV him right before graduation.
Eli Morgan will be next...
 
The same applied back then.

Allen and Chang were valued enough by Milwaukee to be included in the Lucroy trade, even with Mejia as the centerpiece.

Just like Allen, Moss and Nova were valued by Cleveland in a trade that centered on Franmil.

And Grady and Lee were valued in a trade that centered on Phillips.

And Baerga was valued in the trade for Sandy.

The point is that our prospects have value in trade...more than we can roster next season.

But, in some cases, the same folks that still rue the losses of Santander, Aguilar, and Urshela want to hold on to every prospect, so that we can...

1) Be forced to do the same thing again.

2) Watch a bunch of them die on the vine like so many that are clogging our roster today.
 
The same applied back then.

Allen and Chang were valued enough by Milwaukee to be included in the Lucroy trade, even with Mejia as the centerpiece.

Just like Allen, Moss and Nova were valued by Cleveland in a trade that centered on Franmil.

And Grady and Lee were valued in a trade that centered on Phillips.

And Baerga was valued in the trade for Sandy.

The point is that our prospects have value in trade...more than we can roster next season.

But, in some cases, the same folks that still rue the losses of Santander, Aguilar, and Urshela want to hold on to every prospect, so that we can...

1) Be forced to do the same thing again.

2) Watch a bunch of them die on the vine like so many that are clogging our roster today.

I will always "love" how you cherry pick and slant the discourse into some funnel of your logic..

Make no mistake, when we tried to trade for Lucroy, you were without a doubt one of the most vocal critics (if not the most) of said trade - something about "selling out of future" or something like that..... You were not a fan...

I am onboard with trading from out prospect ranks to improve the MLB team, it makes sense on a lot of levels. Questions remain, how much salary we want to take on, who are reasonable targets (not wish-listers) and who of our top prospects are we willing to deal. They can't all be rule 5 guys, as other teams will be wary of absorbing players they will have to roster in 2022.

Thanks for the controllable, soon to be plus playing outfielder. Here are 3 guys to crunch your 2022 roster... Look we win!
 
Yeah, I love FG too and Longenhagen is doing an admirable job, but he's always undervalued college draft pick performers, mostly because of age/level. He somehow downgraded Sandlin to a fringe 35+, that'll quickly be another miss....after Bieber, Civale, Plesac and he was late on Karinchak too, though 50 FV him right before graduation.
Eli Morgan will be next...
He'll be right about morgan..
 
I will always "love" how you cherry pick and slant the discourse into some funnel of your logic..

Make no mistake, when we tried to trade for Lucroy, you were without a doubt one of the most vocal critics (if not the most) of said trade - something about "selling out of future" or something like that..... You were not a fan...

I am onboard with trading from out prospect ranks to improve the MLB team, it makes sense on a lot of levels. Questions remain, how much salary we want to take on, who are reasonable targets (not wish-listers) and who of our top prospects are we willing to deal. They can't all be rule 5 guys, as other teams will be wary of absorbing players they will have to roster in 2022.

Thanks for the controllable, soon to be plus playing outfielder. Here are 3 guys to crunch your 2022 roster... Look we win!

I was not happy about the Lucroy trade, because it was a halfway measure, which was before the Miller trade was announced.

And, as unlikely as it seems, this is an almost completely new era, in which prospects, even lottery picks, are way over valued.

In 2016 it took one elite prospect, two solid prospects, and a good looking young reliever to acquire a year and a half of Lucroy.

It took two very good prospects and two lesser relief prospects to acquire two and a half years of Miller.

Two short years later, it took one elite prospect to acquire three and a half seasons of Hand plus a good looking young reliever with five years of control.

Notice the difference in two short years?

Now, fast forward to 2021. Notice anything different? The going rate for prospects has gone up faster than the housing bubble.

If you want to be any kind of investor, including a baseball executive trying to acquire the most MLB talent possible, you want to use inflated assets to acquire undervalued assets. In today's baseball world, prospects are inflated assets...far different than five years ago.

How do smaller market teams compete? They buck the prevailing trend.

The Indians did it when they began signing young players to long term contracts, something that other teams were too conservative to do.

They also took advantage of a baseball market that undervalued prospects.

There is no way today that the trades for Colon, CC, Lee, Casey Blake, Broussard, or Eduardo Perez would happen today.

And what is undervalued today?

Young MLBers with prospect pedigrees playing for impatient orgs. We now have a boatload of them.

Another undervalued group?

Young prospects with hit tools, but not a lot of immediate power. We now have a boatload of them.

Its not fantasy to think that there are a bunch of impatient orgs who will willingly overpay for prospects.

There is a reasonable chance that there are good young MLB hitters that can significantly upgrade our offense immediately. My wish list may seem like fantasy to you, but several of them are already here, when a lot of fans snickered at the idea.

My wish list...and it was more trying to read our front office's wish list than mine...included Franmil, a top 100 left hand starter, a top 100 right hand starter, and Amed.

Bingo, bingo, bingo, and bingo.

You may not want to believe it, but there are a ton of teams that want what we have, some of which have what we want. And when the right circumstance occurs, there will be another bingo.

They will either want to rebuild, or want to build up their farm system, or want to save a little money, or simply lose patience.

About that save money part...

There are players who will be hitting arby that won't cost us any more than we are paying Eddie and Hernandez right now, and who are playing for teams that won't want to pay it, but will want to overpay for prospects.
 
A lot of fun groupings scattered throughout the minors.

All the 2020 draft pitchers in Lake County. Freeman and Fermin together again in Akron, with Bo Naylor there as well. Arias and Jones manning the left side of Columbus' infield.

But damn, Lynchburg is the team to follow early this year.

Espino, Torres, Wolf in the rotation with Yainer Diaz catching.

Gabby Rodriguez, Angel Martinez, Yordys Valdez, and Bartlett/Noel in the IF.

Escobedo, Planez, and Rodriguez in the OF.

Bunch of other interesting arms too, between Trey Benton, Sergio Morillo, Jerson Ramirez, Xzavion Curry, Jordan Jones, and Randy Labaut.

That group has a chance to be a buzzsaw at that level. Lot of talent there at every position grouping.
 
A lot of fun groupings scattered throughout the minors.

All the 2020 draft pitchers in Lake County. Freeman and Fermin together again in Akron, with Bo Naylor there as well. Arias and Jones manning the left side of Columbus' infield.

But damn, Lynchburg is the team to follow early this year.

Espino, Torres, Wolf in the rotation with Yainer Diaz catching.

Gabby Rodriguez, Angel Martinez, Yordys Valdez, and Bartlett/Noel in the IF.

Escobedo, Planez, and Rodriguez in the OF.

Bunch of other interesting arms too, between Trey Benton, Sergio Morillo, Jerson Ramirez, Xzavion Curry, Jordan Jones, and Randy Labaut.

That group has a chance to be a buzzsaw at that level. Lot of talent there at every position grouping.
I plan on making a trip over to Lake County this summer, especially while Valera is still there.
 
A lot of fun groupings scattered throughout the minors.

All the 2020 draft pitchers in Lake County. Freeman and Fermin together again in Akron, with Bo Naylor there as well. Arias and Jones manning the left side of Columbus' infield.

But damn, Lynchburg is the team to follow early this year.

Espino, Torres, Wolf in the rotation with Yainer Diaz catching.

Gabby Rodriguez, Angel Martinez, Yordys Valdez, and Bartlett/Noel in the IF.

Escobedo, Planez, and Rodriguez in the OF.

Bunch of other interesting arms too, between Trey Benton, Sergio Morillo, Jerson Ramirez, Xzavion Curry, Jordan Jones, and Randy Labaut.

That group has a chance to be a buzzsaw at that level. Lot of talent there at every position grouping.
Akron has the kind of contact heavy lineup I really like and since it's the toughest place to hit HR, that's a good fit. Rotation looks meh, but should get help later from A+ or Morris injury comeback.

I prefer LC to LYN on paper. The college arms should lead the way and there are a lot of our best hitters in the system on that roster, though I expect them to struggle early until they adjust.

Finally minors action again...
 
With the minor league season about to get going, I am curious how the organization will address the rotation setup at each level (since there wasn't a 2020 season). I am sure no organization wants to see an increase in arm issues due to over-usage.

Will they go 6 man rotations?
Will they go smaller rotations w/ more piggybacks??
How with they address the week long 6 game series vs 1 opponent???

Answers will be revealed to everyone in the next week plus.
 

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