Just listened to the Fedor podcast. Here's a summary of the points made. I'll number them so posters can respond easier. Please don't kill the messenger.
1. Houston is "extremely difficult to peg". They have a new front office without much history to go on. But they are not in a position to consider "fit"; they need to grab the biggest talent. That being said, Jalen Green is similar to Kevin Porter, Jr while Evan Mobley is similar to Christian Wood. Neither is a perfect fit.
2. Mobley is a 7-footer who plays like a power forward, kind of a Kevin Durant without the shooting ability, or a Chris Bosh or Anthony Davis. He's a "unicorn" in terms of his ball-handling, vision, and playmaking ability at that size. Green is an "athletic freak". Nowadays the NBA attaches more value to a wing like Green than a big like Mobley, but Mobley is the "cleaner and better prospect". It's a wash; Mobley has a little more talent while Green plays the more important position. In cases where the talent is equal, fit becomes the tiebreaker. Houston easily could go either way, but with the NBA consensus being that Mobley probably has the edge in talent Fedor expects Houston to take the big man. The Cavs would then take Green. If Houston takes Green the Cavs take Mobley. Around the league opinions are split on which direction Houston will go.
3. "Talent wins in the NBA". The best strategy is to maximize talent and then make the fit work. Hard to see the Cavs taking Jalen Suggs, who biggest selling points are leadership and intangibles.
4. Suggs would be the "toughest fit" for the Cavs because he's a playmaker and you want the ball in his hands - same as Darius Garland. However, Suggs is "different enough" from Garland that it would be doable. Suggs is stronger and more physical than either Garland or Sexton. Garland is a "sniper" who could play off the ball and knock down shots. But Suggs is more about leadership and intangibles than pure talent, and talent wins in the NBA.
(My reaction is that if Suggs is a step below Mobley and Green in pure talent and he's also the "toughest fit" of the three then why should he even be a consideration?)
5. The question came up as to whether they could play Allen, Mobley and Nance together. Fedor thinks that would be possible against some opponents depending on the matchups.
6. Kevin Love should not be a consideration when it comes to who they pick. He can't stay healthy, he's on the wrong side of 30, and his skills are diminishing. The Cavs planned to reduce his minutes regardless of where they picked in the draft. Fedor specifically mentioned something like 18-20 minutes per game. He's no longer a 30-minute player. Anything they get from him should be considered a bonus.
7. Green could be the best fit for the Cavs. His style is not the same as Sexton, who is more of a creator. Green is more of a catch-and-shoot guy and you can play him off the ball. Drafting Green would not mean Sexton or Garland would have to go. The Cavs should not make any assumptions but should give all three of them (or Mobley) the chance to play together and see how it works before making any blockbuster trades.
8. Green stood out playing against grown men in the G League. Impressive.
9. As for trading Sexton, Fedor has no idea who the Cavs could get in return but it makes sense to explore a trade, especially if they end up with Green. Because Sexton doesn't yet have a big salary and you would want to get a great player in return they would have to attach Love to the deal to make the salaries match. Fedor threw out a couple of names like Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram as the kind of players they might target, but he hasn't really looked into it that much.
10. Hayden Grove remarked that he heard opinions that Philly is using Ben Simmons the wrong way; he should not be a point guard but rather a small forward. Fedor said Simmons would need to have a "major shift in his thinking" and be willing to move off the point. Also, other teams have more to offer Philly than the Cavs. Philly would like to move Simmons to get somebody like Damian Lillard. The Cavs would have to offer Sexton and Love to make the salaries work and a future #1 pick as well.
11. Sexton will probably be getting $25-30 million per year once his rookie contract is up. Anybody that trades for him would have to be willing to pay him that plus give up a player the Cavs would prefer over Sexton (not to mention taking on the last two years of Love's contract). Fedor made it sound like he doesn't think that team is out there.
12. Taking Green at #3 and then trading a Sexton/Love package for somebody like Siakam or Ingram would be something to consider. (I assume they would need to kick in a lot more than Sexton and Love if they want one of those guys).
