Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

FFRva said:

Started to kind of go into this in the minor league thread but just curious as to how people would feel overall on if this FO does somewhat of a similar approach this coming season that they had this past year as far as gauging their internal talent but still being a competitive ball team (which we would have been without the injuries to the rotation). At this point I'm starting to think I'd love one addition to the lineup most likely in RF and then maybe a bullpen arm and then to let things organically work themselves out. Let some internal options duke out LF whether it be Ahmed, Kwan/OGon and if that fails plug in fully healthy Naylor or Palacios and then at 2B let the guys who ended the season sort out and if that doesn't seem to be working plug in someone like Palacios, Freeman, Arias (I really don't like Arias at 2B long term, I'm hoping left of the infield or possibly OF long term). I guess if no major trades happen we will see Palacios, Arias, Jones next year and a chance we could see Rocchio, Freeman, Valera, and if protected one of Kwan and OGon. Would this approach disappoint you? If so how much and could you elaborate on it?

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I think we should get some type of proven MLB bat to help out JRam and company, but letting guys compete for the other OF spot I have never been against personally, but I feel like in 22, I want to step up and get a team that can give the Whitee Soxs a run for their money and just only using unknowns makes that a bit harder. We have a ton of unproven guys with upside so I want to give them a chance as well. It's hard to figure out which way to go...

FFRva said:

Started to kind of go into this in the minor league thread but just curious as to how people would feel overall on if this FO does somewhat of a similar approach this coming season that they had this past year as far as gauging their internal talent but still being a competitive ball team (which we would have been without the injuries to the rotation). At this point I'm starting to think I'd love one addition to the lineup most likely in RF and then maybe a bullpen arm and then to let things organically work themselves out. Let some internal options duke out LF whether it be Ahmed, Kwan/OGon and if that fails plug in fully healthy Naylor or Palacios and then at 2B let the guys who ended the season sort out and if that doesn't seem to be working plug in someone like Palacios, Freeman, Arias (I really don't like Arias at 2B long term, I'm hoping left of the infield or possibly OF long term). I guess if no major trades happen we will see Palacios, Arias, Jones next year and a chance we could see Rocchio, Freeman, Valera, and if protected one of Kwan and OGon. Would this approach disappoint you? If so how much and could you elaborate on it?

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If someone was holding a gun to my head and told me to choose between adding a corner OF bat or a C that can hit, I'd choose the C upgrade. I say that for a couple of reasons. First, we need a C upgrade as badly as we need an corner OF bat. Secondly, I'd be OK with giving some of the internal options an opportunity as long as it isn't the same internal options that were already given an opportunity this season. If they want to see what any of Kwan, OGon, Palacios, Jones and Naylor can provide then I can understand that. I also still believe that the R5 could provide another option or 2. Cleveland isn't the only team experiencing a crunch. I'd keep my eye on guys like Swaggerty in the Pirates system. There are a few others as well.

If we had realistic candidates for the 2022 OF like we have MIFs, then sorting thru one spot in the OF would make sense.

But we have zero OFs that could even remotely be expected to step in and help the team contend.

Wishing or hoping, yes. Expecting, no way.

As of right now, the window to have Jose is two years. The window for Biebs is three. The window for a cheap, elite rotation is three.

We don't have an unlimited period for tryouts. The time to go full contention mode is now. Wasting another year, when we have the assets to do it now, makes no sense.

Zimmer has had years. Mercado has had years. Johnson, Harold, the same. Naylors injury was...um...career threatening.

Jones didn't progress nearly enough to be expected to produce in Cleveland next year, and the org is still focusing on him at 3B. In spite of the usual fan excitement, ala Ka'ai Tom and so many before him, Kwan is a fringe prospect, and Gonzalez is less. Valera isn't close enough.

Palacios has been moved to the OF, but he has barely 100 games played in the last three years. Its a huge stretch to think he will be able to step in and hit MLB pitching next spring.

Thats our inventory of OF candidates for next April. Most of them are on the bubble for the 40 man, let alone being a key member of our lineup.

Wasn’t the plan all along to eventually move MIF talent around the field, OF included when they started stacking the system with them?

I’m intrigued to see what happens, I guess I’m alluding to not being overly bummed if not much movement happens. Maybe setting myself up with low expectations and just hoping on our scouts.

FFRva said:

Wasn’t the plan all along to eventually move MIF talent around the field, OF included when they started stacking the system with them?

I’m intrigued to see what happens, I guess I’m alluding to not being overly bummed if not much movement happens. Maybe setting myself up with low expectations and just hoping on our scouts.

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Yes it was, and we are starting to see it.

I dont think the doubts about Palacios is where he plays as much as his lack of pro experience.

One problem I have with the org is that it seemingly has a hard time making a decision, and then sticking with it.

They made a decision to move Kipnis from CF to 2B. They stuck with it, and we ended up with an all star at second.

Since then its been like Lets Make a Deal.

'I'll take door #1...uh, no, wait...door #3, no, #2...uh, er...door #2, Monty.'

CATS44 said:

If we had realistic candidates for the 2022 OF like we have MIFs, then sorting thru one spot in the OF would make sense.

But we have zero OFs that could even remotely be expected to step in and help the team contend.

Wishing or hoping, yes. Expecting, no way.

As of right now, the window to have Jose is two years. The window for Biebs is three. The window for a cheap, elite rotation is three.

We don't have an unlimited period for tryouts. The time to go full contention mode is now. Wasting another year, when we have the assets to do it now, makes no sense.

Zimmer has had years. Mercado has had years. Johnson, Harold, the same. Naylors injury was...um...career threatening.

Jones didn't progress nearly enough to be expected to produce in Cleveland next year, and the org is still focusing on him at 3B. In spite of the usual fan excitement, ala Ka'ai Tom and so many before him, Kwan is a fringe prospect, and Gonzalez is less. Valera isn't close enough.

Palacios has been moved to the OF, but he has barely 100 games played in the last three years. Its a huge stretch to think he will be able to step in and hit MLB pitching next spring.

Thats our inventory of OF candidates for next April. Most of them are on the bubble for the 40 man, let alone being a key member of our lineup.

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Wasn't the same inferred with Kluber, Carrasco, Bauers, and Clevinger? The rotation is the least of my concerns and there's enough talent that the turnover should be just as successful, if not more than the last one.

I agree that Zimmer, Mercado, Harold, and Johnson are no longer desirable options, and Naylor's return uncertain. I also agree that one of the corner OF spots should be addressed externally and I think it will be. I think it's safe to say that you and I agree that we shouldn't trade Plesac for a marginal upgrade. If they address the OF situation externally I hope that it's either by trading some prospects or FA, and it's slim pickin's in FA. As I stated in my post, it wouldn't surprise me if they picked up a corner OFer in the R5.

The internal OF options are Kwan, Gonzalez, Jones, and Palacios. Here's their numbers in Columbus:
Gonzalez- 269/305/503/808 with 18HR, 1 3B, 12 2B, 76 SO, 11 BB in 290 AB.
Kwan- 311/398/505/903 with 5 HR, 1 3B, 3 2B, 8 SO, 14 BB in 103 AB.
Palacios- 293/434/416/850 with 1 HR, 1 3B, 9 2B, 28 SO, 25 BB in 113 AB.
Jones- not worth posting.

Judging by those numbers I would guess that Kwan and Palacios should be able to put the bat on the ball at a decent clip. I would also guess that Gonzalez might struggle with that, but when he makes contact it is loud. It's just impossible to know what these kids are going to do when promoted. At some point in time one of them have to "hit". The numbers suggest that eventually they get one that succeeds more than anyone expected.......don't they? It's been a long run of shitty corner OF production and I'm ready for a nice surprise.

The minor leagues are full of kids that can hit every year. We've had our share. A vast majority never even get enough time to put cream in their cup of coffee.

The failure rate of concensus top 100 prospects is 70%. Not one of the kids we are talking about are close to top 100. I dont think sheer numbers makes a lot of difference.

We have threads dedicated to trading off our best player, because he has two years of control left. After next season, we will have the same posts involving Bieber, Franmil, and Quantrill.

We can't wait any longer to cash in some of our chips for legitimate players. We can't have another year of general tryouts.

If we wait another year, Jose will have one year left. If Bieber and Quantrill both perform as hoped, they will be $10 mil pitchers...looking at $15 mil in 2024.

And next off season will bring us another tsunami of prospects that need protected.

This franchise has run out of time for continued tryouts. Its contend this year, or start looking at divesting the best players and adding several more off seasons of losing prospects to R5.

Its time for the FO to shoot now, or go into an annual rite of retooling.

Top 100? I assume you are living in publications that wrote off our top half of the rotation.

Our upper minors the past few years have been pretty damn suspect since 2016/2017 imo, especially position players.

I honestly look at the year after and have no clue the tsunami you speak of, at least position player wise. I see some numbers in the arms department, but this regime has done well at trading established arms and replenishing them within.

Why this year this year? I like prolonged success built on a good model. Look don't get me wrong I'm not opposed to a move but to shake up the whole structure because it's now or never. We'll I'll pass on that ideology and that model as a franchise.

You speak as if we don't move now we need to trade off everyone, the whole damn team is young and controllable so why would you do that? One GOAT is 2 years away, one shortened seasoned Cy young 3.

I want to add a bat but a decent core and system is here imo. I want to win with dominant pitching and getting hot at the right time because it's baseball and that's the way it goes especially with Cleveland being a mid market.

Talking about retooling a team as young and controllable as this one, just seems laughable to me and screaming to scream.

OK @CATS, you want to win it all without dealing Ramirez then let's do it. To hell with the farm system. It will take 3 offseason trades to fill Progressive field up and here they are:

1. A 3 way deal between the Guardians, Mets, and Pirates. The Mets get Hayes from the Pirates and Sandlin from us. The Pirates get Mauricio, Valera, and Vientos. We get Alonso, McCann, McNeil, and Yajure.

2. A deal between the Guardians and the Orioles that has Espino, Freeman, Plesac, and Jones going to Baltimore with Means and Mullins coming to Cleveland.

3. This deal is another 3 way, but this time it is Cleveland, Seattle, and Arizona involved. Cleveland sends Rosario to Seattle and McKenzie to Arizona. Seattle sends Haniger to Cleveland and DeLoach to Arizona. Arizona sends Marte to Cleveland.

When the smoke clears at Progressive Field we'll have a rotation that looks like this:
1. Bieber
2. Means
3. Civale
4. Quantrill
5. Yajure/Morris/Morgan/Hentges/Mejia/whoever else

...and a lineup that looks like this:
C- McCann
1B- Alonso
2B- McNeil
3B- Ramirez
SS- Marte
LF- Haniger
CF- Straw
RF- Mullins
DH- Reyes

I used the values at the BTV sight to keep things fair(according to them anyway), and I think I just came in my pants. Want to know something funny? JRam would still be the highest paid Guardian. Unless I'm mistaken the payroll would be under $80M, and likely in the mid 70's.

We've hit the farm system very hard, but how in the hell would you even pitch to that lineup?

CDAV45 said:

OK @CATS, you want to win it all without dealing Ramirez then let's do it. To hell with the farm system. It will take 3 offseason trades to fill Progressive field up and here they are:

1. A 3 way deal between the Guardians, Mets, and Pirates. The Mets get Hayes from the Pirates and Sandlin from us. The Pirates get Mauricio, Valera, and Vientos. We get Alonso, McCann, McNeil, and Yajure.

2. A deal between the Guardians and the Orioles that has Espino, Freeman, Plesac, and Jones going to Baltimore with Means and Mullins coming to Cleveland.

3. This deal is another 3 way, but this time it is Cleveland, Seattle, and Arizona involved. Cleveland sends Rosario to Seattle and McKenzie to Arizona. Seattle sends Haniger to Cleveland and DeLoach to Arizona. Arizona sends Marte to Cleveland.

When the smoke clears at Progressive Field we'll have a rotation that looks like this:
1. Bieber
2. Means
3. Civale
4. Quantrill
5. Yajure/Morris/Morgan/Hentges/Mejia/whoever else

...and a lineup that looks like this:
C- McCann
1B- Alonso
2B- McNeil
3B- Ramirez
SS- Marte
LF- Haniger
CF- Straw
RF- Mullins
DH- Reyes

I used the values at the BTV sight to keep things fair(according to them anyway), and I think I just came in my pants. Want to know something funny? JRam would still be the highest paid Guardian. Unless I'm mistaken the payroll would be under $80M, and likely in the mid 70's.

We've hit the farm system very hard, but how in the hell would even pitch to that lineup?

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sick video game

FFRva said:

sick video game

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Pretty much.

I'm not interested in retooling. Weve been doing that since we traded Bauer. I'm not interested in trading away the farm system.

But I am interested in some pruning...for three reasons.

First, unless somebody hands Dolan a billion dollars to put the franchise on the same financial level of the other teams in the Central, we do not have the money to acquire enough MLB talent to overtake Chicago. What we do have is the prospect capital to do it, and enough that trading four of them won't hurt the org.

Second, we have more players and prospects than we can fit on the 40 man. As pointed out for the last six months, we have more MIFs that need to be put on the 40 man than can fit. We have them backed up to Lake County, with more coming. The starting pitching is stacked up even farther back.

We either trade some players and/or prospects, or we lose them. An overpay is better than giving them away.

Third, we can't expect to compete if the 40 man is filled with prospects who have never played against MLBers. If we learned anything this year, it should be that a vast majority of true rookies simply cannot compete successfully at the MLB level.

Bradley
Johnson
Miller
Clement
Morgan
Hentges
Mejia
Nelson
Perez
Garza
Stephan

A handful look like they have a future, but they sure didn't keep us in contention this year. If we want to contend before Jose, Bieber, Quantrill, Franmil, and Amed are still around, how much longer do you want to wait?

Just on the position side, which will take up 20 roster spots, we need to add..

Rocchio
Freeman
Valera
Palacios
Lavastida

We also have Jones and Arias.

Thats 7 out of twenty players with zero MLB experience. Throw in Miller and Clement who have less than 350 PAs between them.

And don't forget about Tena, Noel, Kwan, and Gonzalez.

Thats 13 kids with little or no MLB experience to fit into 20 spots. We need at least 13 productive MLB players on the 26 man roster. We can't compete with only seven. We can't compete with only ten.

You can make a legitimate case for any one of them to be protected. You can make a legitimate case that any of them could be picked by somebody else if we don't retain/protect them. And we will lose some of them.

Common sense says that it would be far better to trade several of them for real MLB players than to give them away for nothing.

News Flash:

Amed, Chang, Gimenez, Miller, Clement, Arias, Freeman, Palacios, Rocchio, and Tena are not all gonna see significant PT in a Guardians uniform. The only question is if we get anything in return for them.

**************

As for next year...

Sanquinton
Martinez
Rodriguez
Naylor
Battenfield
Gaddis
Curry
Brennan
Hankins
Torres
Stubbs

All become R5 eligible next year...plus anybody we don't lose this winter.

One more thing...

If, as GM, I do what so many say they want me to do....hold onto the prospects and hold another year of tryouts...those same fans will be clamoring that I be fired....

And that Dolan is cheap.

The fact is that many of the fans are cheaper than Dolan. They want a team that can compete for the World Series, but they don't want to pay the price.

I agree with Cats on this topic.

The notion of retooling or sustained success sounds great in theory, but in reality it often plays out much differently. I’m not sure the Indians have actually proven to be very good at it either. What they are good at is selling off a bunch of proven players for quantity over a 2-3 year period and slowly (key word) building up another core. It took them 5 years the last time around. They went 9 years between winning a post season game. That’s a rebuild period whether you win 65 games or 80 games.

If the Indians continue with the main approach of seeing what they have in house, I anticipate a few more seasons just like the last one. And as Cats mentions, that likely means another big core player or two is dealt away. Given that this process started in 2019 when they still had a 90 win roster and they’ve steadily regressed, it’s hard to label what they’re doing as retooling.

I also reject the premise that they should have a constant model that defines their approach. Every season has different variables and realistic outcomes. As currently positioned, the Indians have a roster that likely projects to win 75-85 games. Their 2 best players are at a point where they should either try to win with them or cash in trade value. And they have a healthy farm system with quality depth at certain positions. All of those factors combined make it a good time to cash in some prospect value for MLB upgrades. If not now, when? And I don’t mean waiting until July to see how things are going first. Have some conviction and improve the roster prior to the season starting.

My ideal scenario would be acquiring 2 bats like Happ and Gurriel. That would give them 6 quality hitters in their lineup, but it still leaves a few spots open for competition. It’s not like they would be blocking or preventing all younger players from earning a chance. They just wouldn’t be using half their lineup for auditions.

Looking around the league at former Tribe minor league players, there’s arguably more MLB production coming from guys they’ve simply moved on from (DFA, rule 5, minor trade) vs. guys they traded to legitimately improve the MLB roster. Unless they make some trades involving prospects, I anticipate this trend will continue. Their system is deep at certain positions and there’s no way all of these guys translate MLB value equal to current trade value. It just doesn’t work out like that.

Sounds like the problem has been identified and well defined..