Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[CalBuckeyeRob]

While I guess things could change, it has been a few years since Cleveland has signed a free agent that any other team was willing to give multiple years. The additions have been late in the process for guys like Rosario and Hernandez that found little interest so they took the short term deal in Cleveland. That makes it hard to target anyone as you are waiting out the rest of the league.

 

[CDAV45]

@Gson

JRam by himself is a 6+ WAR type of player... All the trades posted on paper may get us 3 (maybe 4) WAR at best since you keep getting unproven guys at the MLB level. Most of the players actually don't even have MLB time. The team is going backwards in an area they don't have production in to begin with. No trade right now can improve this team in 22 by trading JRam. That is a fact and there is no way around it. We trade JRam, we lose 100% of the time in 22. Beyond 22 it's possible we improve, but we go backwards in 22 without JRam if we trade him.

Then you add in Clase, who is close to 3 WAR himself in that deal... You cannot trade 9 WAR in players and ever expect to go forward as an organization in that same season... we are going backwards and we aren't rebuilding so why in the F would you trade your All-Star 3B and an All-star looking closer for prospects?

Now looking at the trade proposal... Clase and JRam for Guirrel, Moreno, Pearson, Groshans and Hiraldo... Not the worst idea at least, but I don't think Toronto is willing to do it. Toronto needs SPs and wouldn't moving Pearson do the opposite since he's a top 15 rated prospect. I want nothing to do with Hiraldo as well...

@CDAV45

Hernandez is the better bat of the two players but Guirrel is way way more versatile of a player and can play multiple positions. He has played nearly everywhere on the Diamond and is better defensively than Hernandez as well. Guirrel is also at the current moment a way better player than Naylor, they actually don't even compare... I'd trade those two straight up for each other in a heartbeat and not think twice...

I'm not looking for versatility per say. I mean if they have it then that's icing. What I want is a legitimate corner OF bat and Hernandez is exactly that.

I also did not say or mean to infer that Naylor is as good as Guirriel. I believe I said the same type of hitter that has good contact skills and moderate power. They(especially Guirriel) are good hitters, but not the type I'd like to see. I think most and even you would agree that Josh Naylor is expected to be the same type of hitter that Guirriel currently is. That's all I was trying to say. That and because they should be similar type hitters, I'm not giving up a player like Ramirez if I can't get exactly what I want.

Of course you would trade Guirriel for Naylor, who wouldn't. Hell, I'd trade both Naylors for Guirriel if I could.

The defensive gap you speak of isn't as large as you would make it out to be Coach.

 

[CDAV45]

While I guess things could change, it has been a few years since Cleveland has signed a free agent that any other team was willing to give multiple years. The additions have been late in the process for guys like Rosario and Hernandez that found little interest so they took the short term deal in Cleveland. That makes it hard to target anyone as you are waiting out the rest of the league.

Hey Cal, you're correct in what you say here. Thing is, I don't really want them to get into a bidding war for a FA. Those deals typically become an 800lb gorilla on the back of any small market team that signs them. There really isn't jackshit in FA anyway. Conforto looks like the best target, but there will be numerous teams bidding on him if the Mets don't resign him. If it were me(it's not) I would not go down that road.

I'd much prefer to trade for a young, inexpensive, talented player that has experienced some success. You know, like Reyes, Rosario, and Straw. So unless something "falls into their lap" I say keep doing what you're doing. We're almost there with plenty of assets to deal and I've come to really appreciate the process.

 

[Gson]

2021/22 40 Man Roster Crunch..

There were 24 pitchers and 19 position players on the active roster at the end of the season.. There are as few as 8 and as many as 11 guys who are either going to need Rule V protection or will be passed through waivers.. That means about 15 names have to be evaluated to stay or are going to be DFA'd or Outright released...

Must be a tough decision time.. imho.. the 15 number is really closer to 8..

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Hey Cal, you're correct in what you say here. Thing is, I don't really want them to get into a bidding war for a FA. Those deals typically become an 800lb gorilla on the back of any small market team that signs them. There really isn't jackshit in FA anyway. Conforto looks like the best target, but there will be numerous teams bidding on him if the Mets don't resign him. If it were me(it's not) I would not go down that road.

I'd much prefer to trade for a young, inexpensive, talented player that has experienced some success. You know, like Reyes, Rosario, and Straw. So unless something "falls into their lap" I say keep doing what you're doing. We're almost there with plenty of assets to deal and I've come to really appreciate the process.

I am not anxious to bid for them either as the small budget doesn't lend itself to expensive failures. I just often see people with a wish list on here from free agents and those guys are likely out of the price range for Cleveland unless they are scrounging around late in free agency. I would love Kyle Schwarber, but his 2021 is getting him paid and it should. Just won't be in Cleveland.

 

[CDAV45]

I am not anxious to bid for them either as the small budget doesn't lend itself to expensive failures. I just often see people with a wish list on here from free agents and those guys are likely out of the price range for Cleveland unless they are scrounging around late in free agency. I would love Kyle Schwarber, but his 2021 is getting him paid and it should. Just won't be in Cleveland.

100% agree!

 

[CATS44]

As GM, I have fairly thoroughly laid out my plans, and as all good plans should, they remain flexible. The shorthand version is that with $70 mil to spend, I have budgeted $11-$15 mil and four high end prospects to acquire upgrades, the main two being corner OFs. One would be a headliner with at least three years of control and a 2022 salary not exceeding $5 mil. The other would be a one year upgrade in the $8-10 mil range.

(The plan also included bringing Roberto...or another vet catcher...in for $5 mil or less. Monetarily, I catch a break on Bieber arby, because his limited IP lowered his arby value by about $2-3 mil.)

But what if I could bring in two long term headliners in at the same cost by throwing in two more not quite as high end prospects? What if I could put a 10+ fWAR outfield in place for at least the next three years?

As said before, I want Laureano. I've listed the reasons. And, like with Bieber's lower arby, I've caught a break with his PED suspension. His arby cost will be down, as is his trade value. He would normally have cost four prospects. If I offer to take Andrus contract (not Andrus, just his contract), I might be able to get him for two prospects and a fringe player that I have no future plans for anyway.

The monetary cost would be around $10 mil, which I had budgeted for a one year FA. I still have the $5 mil to pay for a significant long term trade target....and the prospect depth to do so.

Instead of one 3 yr upgrade and one single season upgrade, I would have two 3 year upgrades at an additional cost of two prospects.

 

[sportscoach]

@CDAV45

The more I am looking at the argument between Gurriel Jr and Hernandez the more I am liking Gurriel and I'll explain why

1) Gurriel is due 5 mil in 22, 6 mil in 23 plus he has an Arbitration year (currently project on multiple sites that way) in 24. So he technically is under control for 3 seasons not two. Hernandez is due 10 area in arb in 22 then a higher Arb number in 23... for a strapped cash team who wants to extend guys, the Gurriel deal is better.

2) Hernandez' BABIP in 21 was .351... put that at .300 (I think league average was lower, but in theory should be at .300) his numbers won't be a significantly greater than Gurriel since a regression is expected there.

3) Hernandez has considered more value in a trade, so if it's a Plesac trade, you can possibly get more in return (meaning like more/better pieces) back with Gurriel vs Hernandez.

4) Gurriel also solves the backup 1B situation with Bradley since he does play a decent 1B.

5) Going off of point 1, if we could afford Hernandez, but go with Gurriel, that gives us money to put elsewhere either in a free agent or into another trade. Personally rather have Chafin and Gurriel than only Hernandez...

(Though as I am writing this, trade value site changed their numbers drastically of Gurriel lol he was at 3.7 and now he's at 22.9 while Hernandez was 32 now he's at 25.3. Plesac is at 28.8 so it's still a good enough difference to get another solid prospect in the deal...)

 

[CATS44]

I dont see Gurriel as enough of an upgrade to trade Plesac for, and Im not interested in any more prospects that clog up the 40 man. I'm looking for a package the upgrades the offense significantly. Gurriel doesn't do that, so I'd want another young MLB piece.

I also need to decrease the number on the 40 man. Another SP for multiple pieces doesn't make the roster crunch better. It makes it worse.

If I trade Plesac and his four cheap years of control, at the very least I need three years of significant upgrade at an affordable cost.

Hernandez is somewhat different. He does look like a significant upgrade , but for only two years . And the cost is significant. If he produces as hoped, he will be at least as expensive as Jose.

The moment we traded for him, the talk would turn to trading him now, in order to extract as much value as possible.

There is a good thing about Hernandez. He and Jose share the same agent.

But lets look at Hernandez as opposed to other options.

We are talking about two years for $23 mil. What could we get on the FA market in comparison that would not cost us a rotation piece?

Mark Canha for $8-10 mil for one year? $16 mil for two?

Is the team better with Hernandez, or is it better with Plesac and Canha?

I dont think its close...and we know which one costs less. A trade centering around Plesac for Hernandez is not a wise husbanding of resources. Much better prospects for Hernandez, but Toronto is looking for immediate MLB pitching.

 

[sportscoach]

I dont see Gurriel as enough of an upgrade to trade Plesac for, and Im not interested in any more prospects that clog up the 40 man. I'm looking for a package the upgrades the offense significantly. Gurriel doesn't do that, so I'd want another young MLB piece.

I also need to decrease the number on the 40 man. Another SP for multiple pieces doesn't make the roster crunch better. It makes it worse.

If I trade Plesac and his four cheap years of control, at the very least I need three years of significant upgrade at an affordable cost.

Hernandez is somewhat different. He does look like a significant upgrade , but for only two years . And the cost is significant. If he produces as hoped, he will be at least as expensive as Jose.

The moment we traded for him, the talk would turn to trading him now, in order to extract as much value as possible.

There is a good thing about Hernandez. He and Jose share the same agent.

But lets look at Hernandez as opposed to other options.

We are talking about two years for $23 mil. What could we get on the FA market in comparison that would not cost us a rotation piece?

Mark Canha for $8-10 mil for one year? $16 mil for two?

Is the team better with Hernandez, or is it better with Plesac and Canha?

I dont think its close...and we know which one costs less. A trade centering around Plesac for Hernandez is not a wise husbanding of resources. Much better prospects for Hernandez, but Toronto is looking for immediate MLB pitching.

Look at Hernandez' numbers his WAR isn't sustainable on paper. A .351 BABIP isn't something he can keep doing. His SO rate has gone down, but I don't think he will keep up his 4 WAR seasons. Gurriel is cheaper money wise and we would be get more in the deal if we trade him Plesac plus he has 3 years of team control. Next I would target Smith and Lopez, yes I know they need to be added to the 40 man hence why I would trade back a Johnson, but the reason why I am targeting them is cause they are MLB ready.

Smith has played 1B (very little), 3B, SS and LF... His AAA numbers all went essentially positive (Better BB%, lower SO%, better LD% etc) plus he is 25 with two more option years. Hit 21 HRs in 94 games at AAA. He looks like a possible breakout candidate in 22...

Otto Lopez has played everywhere but C and Pitcher for the Jays and got a short call-up for the Jays in 21... More of a ground-based hitter but low strikeout rate, so from the mold of Miller/Freeman in that sense.

Gurriel would improve our offense while guys like Lopez and Smith have upside and mix them in with Miller, Freeman, Gimenez etc all who are trying to break out into the bigs, make a stronger competition plus guys who can play anywhere. Best 8 non catchers will go North with the team in a sense hitting wise. I feel like this would be our best option as a roster. Now about the roster crunch... I think we can move other prospects in other moves to round out this roster even more.

Should I do my other moves so you can see all of my actions overall?

 

[Montgo]

I dont see Gurriel as enough of an upgrade to trade Plesac for, and Im not interested in any more prospects that clog up the 40 man. I'm looking for a package the upgrades the offense significantly. Gurriel doesn't do that, so I'd want another young MLB piece.

I also need to decrease the number on the 40 man. Another SP for multiple pieces doesn't make the roster crunch better. It makes it worse.

If I trade Plesac and his four cheap years of control, at the very least I need three years of significant upgrade at an affordable cost.

Hernandez is somewhat different. He does look like a significant upgrade , but for only two years . And the cost is significant. If he produces as hoped, he will be at least as expensive as Jose.

The moment we traded for him, the talk would turn to trading him now, in order to extract as much value as possible.

There is a good thing about Hernandez. He and Jose share the same agent.

But lets look at Hernandez as opposed to other options.

We are talking about two years for $23 mil. What could we get on the FA market in comparison that would not cost us a rotation piece?

Mark Canha for $8-10 mil for one year? $16 mil for two?

Is the team better with Hernandez, or is it better with Plesac and Canha?

I dont think its close...and we know which one costs less. A trade centering around Plesac for Hernandez is not a wise husbanding of resources. Much better prospects for Hernandez, but Toronto is looking for immediate MLB pitching.

Gurriel is absolutely an upgrade and fits the Indians roster well. Not just in terms of position or ability, but also the cheap team control for 2 years with a 3rd year of arby.

I also believe there’s more upside in that bat for a guy just entering his prime who’s already a pretty good hitter. His K rate continues to decline and he has shown flashes of legit power each of the last 3 seasons. No platoon concerns Home/Away or righty/lefty.
He was really good in the 2nd half this year. I would gamble he puts it together for an entire season soon. Now is the time to buy.

Hernandez doesn’t fit the Indians salary/team control for a trade target. He’s also at the pinnacle of his trade value.

 

[CATS44]

I think we need to forget guys like our fringe outfielders as having any kind of trade value...other than throw ins that don't move any needle. Guys like we have can be picked up late in the winter as NRIs.

I agree that Hernandez' BABIP may not be sustainable, but if you look at his peripherals over his entire career, he hits the ball very hard, with solid launch angle and barrel percentage. He has a low GB rate and a high hard %. All that makes his BABIP more sustainable than most.

On the other hand, Gurriel is a 2 fWAR player. There just isn't enough there to be considered a significant upgrade. Get him for low cost, fine. For any package that includes Plesac, no.

There are a lot of OFs that are just as good that can be had for less. I'd rather have Slater or Yaz from the Giants.

*********

Back to Laureano for a moment.

What would trading him and dumping Andrus contract mean for Oakland? It would mean that the savings would allow them to keep all three of their top SPs...Montas, Manaea, and Bassitt. Or two of them and Chapman.

The expanded idea earlier...Plasec and multiple prospects for Montas and Laureano....if we took on Andrus contract...would mean that Oakland could retain the rest of its core....Manaea, Bassitt, Chapman, and Olson...while retaining a very strong rotation and filling in its present other needs, and stocking its dreadful farm system.

Such a move would blow the entire budget I have for upgrades, but we would have an even better rotation for 2022 and our outfield upgrade.

 

[sportscoach]

@CATS44

If Gurriel's hand didn't get stepped on, I am pretty sure he would have gotten to 3 WAR and that is a sustainable number while Hernandez' 4 WAR I dont think is...

Aka I am going to agree to disagree, I just trust my instincts. I don't think Plesac will get moved, but I am 100% okay with getting Gurriel plus another couple players back for him...

Also if I went and got Smith and Lopez, I think I could deal Arias plus prospects for someone if an All-Star like Reynolds could be available. Also I would be willing to make a move for Bassitt from Oakland and give him an extension. I know that's a gamble, but I think his best years will be 22-24...

 

[CDAV45]

@CDAV45

The more I am looking at the argument between Gurriel Jr and Hernandez the more I am liking Gurriel and I'll explain why

1) Gurriel is due 5 mil in 22, 6 mil in 23 plus he has an Arbitration year (currently project on multiple sites that way) in 24. So he technically is under control for 3 seasons not two. Hernandez is due 10 area in arb in 22 then a higher Arb number in 23... for a strapped cash team who wants to extend guys, the Gurriel deal is better.

2) Hernandez' BABIP in 21 was .351... put that at .300 (I think league average was lower, but in theory should be at .300) his numbers won't be a significantly greater than Gurriel since a regression is expected there.

3) Hernandez has considered more value in a trade, so if it's a Plesac trade, you can possibly get more in return (meaning like more/better pieces) back with Gurriel vs Hernandez.

4) Gurriel also solves the backup 1B situation with Bradley since he does play a decent 1B.

5) Going off of point 1, if we could afford Hernandez, but go with Gurriel, that gives us money to put elsewhere either in a free agent or into another trade. Personally rather have Chafin and Gurriel than only Hernandez...

(Though as I am writing this, trade value site changed their numbers drastically of Gurriel lol he was at 3.7 and now he's at 22.9 while Hernandez was 32 now he's at 25.3. Plesac is at 28.8 so it's still a good enough difference to get another solid prospect in the deal...)

Feel free to like whoever you want, but when looking at facts Hernandez is a significantly more productive hitter than Guirriel. The problem you have is trying to apply the average of a statistic to a hitter that's well above average. It just doesn't work like that. If you can't see the difference in Guirriel and Hernandez then I don't know what to tell you.

The monetary difference between Hernandez and Guirriel is less than having Cesar Hernandez. This team is no longer "cash strapped" either. Sure, they have to work with a smaller budget than most teams, but it doesn't have to be as low as it was this season.

When it comes to Guirriel, what CATS stated is "dead nuts". "I don't see Gurriel as enough of an upgrade to trade Plesac for". It couldn't be said any better. As I stated in a prior post, I personally view Naylor as the same type of good contact, moderate power hitter as Guirriel. Ironically they both play OF and/or 1B. I think that you can appreciate my apprehension when it comes to dealing Plesac for Guirriel when we already theoretically have a player with a similar profile. No, Naylor hasn't sniffed the success that Guirriel has, but he is profiled to and many believe he will. If I'm being honest, I don't want either of them.

 

[CDAV45]

Gurriel is absolutely an upgrade and fits the Indians roster well. Not just in terms of position or ability, but also the cheap team control for 2 years with a 3rd year of arby.

I also believe there’s more upside in that bat for a guy just entering his prime who’s already a pretty good hitter. His K rate continues to decline and he has shown flashes of legit power each of the last 3 seasons. No platoon concerns Home/Away or righty/lefty.
He was really good in the 2nd half this year. I would gamble he puts it together for an entire season soon. Now is the time to buy.

Hernandez doesn’t fit the Indians salary/team control for a trade target. He’s also at the pinnacle of his trade value.

Guirriel is absolutely and upgrade, but who isn't? Ian Happ is an upgrade too and we wouldn't have to give up Plesac to get him. I'm not even advocating acquiring Happ, just using him as an example. We have to be careful robbing Peter to pay Paul in some of these deals. I'm not disrupting what looks to be a damn good starting staff for a 2 WAR player. Especially if I can get one that's at least close to that without dealing a player like Plesac. I'd rather throw all of Kwan, Naylor, and Gonzalez against the wall and see who sticks.