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Cleveland Guardians Offseason Discussion 2021-22

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BMAN said:
There’s a hell of a lot more bitching. Not even sure anyone has said the team can do no wrong by the way. Just sounds like one of those both sides cop out.
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Not in those exact words perhaps. If you think the bitching is bad here, check out some other options sometime (like the Guardians page on Facebook) where half the "fans" don't acknowledge the team name is now the "Guardians" and the "Dolan is _________ " goes on for days..

I tend to be a critical person, and some others classify that as complaining. That is their prerogative. Some folks choose to be inflammatory provocateurs, others preach patience at nauseum. I know that I can be an impatient person and reactionary, it's just who I am.

It's the off season and there is not much to talk about l, especially with the lockout. I believe the Guardians made 1 transaction total before the lockout, the signing of a RP to a minor league deal. So not much to talk about there.

Trade em or play em - in regards to prospects... That is going to generate a TON of opinions from all corners of the field.

On the bright side? We have a ridiculously good farm system at the moment and starting pitching other teams drool over. Hopefully we can extend Bieber AND JRam, that should go over well.

Dark side? I burnt my hand on the toaster this morning... The toaster! What an idiot.
 
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I'm only speaking for myself here, but what kind of gets under my skin is the empty complaining. Just saying that they didn't spend enough means very little to me. If you're gonna bitch at least take the time to add some context to it. If you want to complain because the Guardians didn't offer Garcia or Gomes more than they got I can respect that even if I disagree. Same goes for a player traded to another team for an offer that looks like could have been beaten by Cleveland. Hunter Renfroe would be an example of that for me. The problem is we don't know the details. Maybe Boston called Milwaukee and said this is what we want and if you give that to us the deal is done, not even concerning themselves with other offers. There is so much we cannot know.
 
Only thing about pitching and MIFs, is I like upside of MIFs at higher end now more than FOR starters potential? You look at our top 10-15, you got Espino and then Hankins & Torres who are slowed a bit by injury and then recent drafts of Burns and Williams. But, to have Rocchio, Freeman and Arias in top 5 trying to push out Rosario and Giménez is a problem I take every day of the week.

People are talking about keeping Jones at 3rd, in case Jose is traded. I think you can have AAA infield next year of Jones at 1st/RF, Freeman at 2B, Rocchio at SS and Arias at 3B and be happy if 2 of 4 make it. And, you still have either Clement or Miller as utility.

AAA pitching will be Morris, Myer, Plink, Batten and Morgan leaving a bunch like Allen, Gaddis, Curry at AA. All great pitching but more MOR till Burns and Espino advance in another year.

Most fans would like this argument just like (taste great, less filling debate). Yet, MIFs win due to readiness at this point.
 
petes999 said:
Only thing about pitching and MIFs, is I like upside of MIFs at higher end now more than FOR starters potential? You look at our top 10-15, you got Espino and then Hankins & Torres who are slowed a bit by injury and then recent drafts of Burns and Williams. But, to have Rocchio, Freeman and Arias in top 5 trying to push out Rosario and Giménez is a problem I take every day of the week.

People are talking about keeping Jones at 3rd, in case Jose is traded. I think you can have AAA infield next year of Jones at 1st/RF, Freeman at 2B, Rocchio at SS and Arias at 3B and be happy if 2 of 4 make it. And, you still have either Clement or Miller as utility.

AAA pitching will be Morris, Myer, Plink, Batten and Morgan leaving a bunch like Allen, Gaddis, Curry at AA. All great pitching but more MOR till Burns and Espino advance in another year.

Most fans would like this argument just like (taste great, less filling debate). Yet, MIFs win due to readiness at this point.
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I think you can even add Espino and Burns to the AA bunch. Strong starts from Allen, Curry, Burns and even Espino clouds the AAA picture in a beautiful way.

If Torres can find it, Hankins and/or Vargas come back from injury with a vengeance.. That is incredible depth.

Someone like Vargas or even Torres maybe BP guys going forward, nothing to do but wait.
 
AZ_ said:
Of course he is.

Dakota Hudson has one okay season (2019) and has pitched 50 innings since
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Isn't that kind of the point though? St. Louis hasn't had contributions from these players due to injuries.

St. Louis specifically made a gamble on a specific type of pitcher - a ground-ball inducing types (see: Mikolas, Hudson, Hyun Kim, Hicks). However this entire squad has pretty much gotten decimated by injuries to the point where they haven't been able to reap any rewards, despite the squad producing an ERA not much higher than 3. I think if we were in their shoes we'd be a lot more understanding of the losses they've suffered...

I think it's pretty easy to look at the FIP/xFIP etc of these guys and say that they really aren't that good and are simply lucky but every one of them has found a way to outperform these metrics so maybe they're onto something, or were until they all got hurt.
 
KluberSociety said:
Isn't that kind of the point though? St. Louis hasn't had contributions from these players due to injuries.

St. Louis specifically made a gamble on a specific type of pitcher - a ground-ball inducing types (see: Mikolas, Hudson, Hyun Kim, Hicks). However this entire squad has pretty much gotten decimated by injuries to the point where they haven't been able to reap any rewards, despite the squad producing an ERA not much higher than 3. I think if we were in their shoes we'd be a lot more understanding of the losses they've suffered...

I think it's pretty easy to look at the FIP/xFIP etc of these guys and say that they really aren't that good and are simply lucky but every one of them has found a way to outperform these metrics so maybe they're onto something, or were until they all got hurt.
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Certain guys always seem to outplay what they should be doing... Plesac has a 3.93 ERA to a 4.57 FIP... Normally starters have something similar with a fair amount of innings, so what makes up the difference/why is his ERA a fair amount lower than his FIP?

Kwan in the minors is another guy... He has a listed speed of 45 yet plays a plus CF, which normally CF's have a speed above 55...

Stats tell us somethings, but not everything... Plesac to me has always had good intangibles on the mound. He has a fearless attitude and should eventually get a gold glove on the mound with how well he moves and can play defense (He played some LF and 1B in college and I am pretty sure I heard he played some SS before). Now he doesn't have amazing stuff and that can hurt him on off days, but if you are in a dogfight, you can always bet he will do everything to come out on top... I guess my point is, stats aren't everything
 
Jackie Bradley is guaranteed $17.5 mil.

$9.5 mil this year, and a mutual option with an $8 mil buyout next year. Think about that for a while.

Folks on this forum have been eyeing Renfroe four four years, even though he isn't very good....but he will get less than $5 mil in 2022 with another year of control....which is tons better that JBJ at $17.5 mil guaranteed.

Boston bought two prospects....another example of the over valuation of prospects.

***************

Folks on here are really under estimating the value of Plesac, Civale, Gimenez, and Amed....and over estimating the immediate value of our prospects....and our long time fringe players.

*********

Palacios is an OF. He is really bad at 2B.

**********

Like in Hansel and Gretel, its best to follow the bread crumbs this FO drops to see where they are going. They aren't moving to a third or fourth place finish in the AL Central while holding another year of tryouts.

They also never sprint when they can walk.

So far, they have passed on five catchers. There is a reason. They've also passed on a short term corner OF that didn't cost much.

The longer the shutdown lasts, the bigger the squeeze on lower and middle tier free agents. Some very hasty decisions are gonna have to be made by many of them, because the cost of waiting will be non guaranteed NRIs.

There are gonna be some big bargains for FOs with patience and roster/payroll flexibility.

By now everybody should know that this FO is always working at some acquisition that we have no hint of...and that it moves in a very deliberate manner. Why all the angst?
 
petes999 said:
Only thing about pitching and MIFs, is I like upside of MIFs at higher end now more than FOR starters potential? You look at our top 10-15, you got Espino and then Hankins & Torres who are slowed a bit by injury and then recent drafts of Burns and Williams. But, to have Rocchio, Freeman and Arias in top 5 trying to push out Rosario and Giménez is a problem I take every day of the week.

People are talking about keeping Jones at 3rd, in case Jose is traded. I think you can have AAA infield next year of Jones at 1st/RF, Freeman at 2B, Rocchio at SS and Arias at 3B and be happy if 2 of 4 make it. And, you still have either Clement or Miller as utility.

AAA pitching will be Morris, Myer, Plink, Batten and Morgan leaving a bunch like Allen, Gaddis, Curry at AA. All great pitching but more MOR till Burns and Espino advance in another year.

Most fans would like this argument just like (taste great, less filling debate). Yet, MIFs win due to readiness at this point.
Click to expand...
I'll be a little surprised if LT Allen isn't pitching in Columbus next season after pitching a little more than half of his stellar 21 season in Akron.

Absolutely agree that all of LT Allen, Pilkington, Battenfield, Myer, Gaddis, Curry, and Burns look more like future 2-4 SP. I don't view any of them as TOR or #5's, but it wouldn't surprise me if 1 or 2 of those surpass expectations, especially Battenfield. Because they can control the strike zone and limit walks they are advanced for their age. These are medium-high ceiling, high floor SP prospects IMO.

Morris, Espino, and Hankins have TOR written all over them. Torres and Vargas have dynamic FB, but lack the repertoire right now to be SP. I think both of them should call Danny Salazar and ask him to teach them his split change. Their FB and slider/cutter combos are already good, but they need that 3rd pitch and to log some innings.

I also think they deal a SP again. If they don't then I think Morgan starts the season with the Guardians as the long man. I'd like to see him get some starts and build some value before any of the aforementioned run him off.

What the hell happens if L. Allen Sr. is healthy and pitching well? Considering him and Morgan along with the depth behind them, I don't see anyway they don't deal a SP. I'd let either of Plesac or Civale go in the right deal. Emphasis on "right deal".

Anyway, I agree that the overall ceiling of the MIF prospects is a little higher than the SP prospects, but it's marginal.
 
CATS44 said:
Jackie Bradley is guaranteed $17.5 mil.

$9.5 mil this year, and a mutual option with an $8 mil buyout next year. Think about that for a while.

Folks on this forum have been eyeing Renfroe four four years, even though he isn't very good....but he will get less than $5 mil in 2022 with another year of control....which is tons better that JBJ at $17.5 mil guaranteed.

Boston bought two prospects....another example of the over valuation of prospects.

***************

Folks on here are really under estimating the value of Plesac, Civale, Gimenez, and Amed....and over estimating the immediate value of our prospects....and our long time fringe players.

*********

Palacios is an OF. He is really bad at 2B.

**********

Like in Hansel and Gretel, its best to follow the bread crumbs this FO drops to see where they are going. They aren't moving to a third or fourth place finish in the AL Central while holding another year of tryouts.

They also never sprint when they can walk.

So far, they have passed on five catchers. There is a reason. They've also passed on a short term corner OF that didn't cost much.

The longer the shutdown lasts, the bigger the squeeze on lower and middle tier free agents. Some very hasty decisions are gonna have to be made by many of them, because the cost of waiting will be non guaranteed NRIs.

There are gonna be some big bargains for FOs with patience and roster/payroll flexibility.

By now everybody should know that this FO is always working at some acquisition that we have no hint of...and that it moves in a very deliberate manner. Why all the angst?
Click to expand...
I think you're underestimating the value of Renfroe. He's no superstar by any means, but he plays good RF defense and has superstar power. In hindsight, I'd prefer him to Reyes in the trade because he isn't locked into a DH role. I'm uncertain how you can say Renfroe "isn't very good" and then go on to say "we're underestimating the value of Amed". You're just wrong regarding your evaluation of those 2. I think their values are relatively close and both are 2-3 WAR players. In fact, Renfroe has consistently been that. Anyway, for whatever reason(s) Boston clearly wanted JBJ back and Milwaukee replaced Garcia with Renfroe. Considering the difference in cost I'd guess 29 other teams would do the same. Renfroe might hit 40 bombs in that park.

Which short term OF that didn't cost much did they pass on?

Agree that Palacios is an OFer. The quality MIF depth in the system basically forces him out even if his glove was decent.

If the lockout lasts through the winter, but ends before ST starts then it's going to be a madhouse for the remaining FA. I think teams are going to throw reckless money at some of these guys on short term deals and that doesn't fare well for Cleveland. What's remaining after that flurry will be the "big bargains". I have no interest in lower and middle tier FA. I'd rather watch Naylor, Kwan, Palacios, or Jones play.

Yeah, I'm convinced they already have a deal in place for a C.
 
Why is there so much talk about Hunter Renfroe? He’s neither good nor bad enough to be a topic of discussion. He’s just a meh player.

Hunter Renfroe WAR by season:
2017: 0.2
2018: 1.6
2019: 2.0
2020: -0.3
2021: 1.8

wRC+ by season (100 is a league-average run producer):
2017: 94
2018: 114
2019: 99
2020: 78
2021: 114

Hunter Renfroe - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Hunter Renfroe career batting statistics for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball
www.fangraphs.com www.fangraphs.com
 
Derek said:
Why is there so much talk about Hunter Renfroe? He’s neither good nor bad enough to be a topic of discussion. He’s just a meh player.

Hunter Renfroe WAR by season:
2017: 0.2
2018: 1.6
2019: 2.0
2020: -0.3
2021: 1.8

wRC+ by season (100 is a league-average run producer):
2017: 94
2018: 114
2019: 99
2020: 78
2021: 114

Hunter Renfroe - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Hunter Renfroe career batting statistics for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball
www.fangraphs.com www.fangraphs.com
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It wasn't so much the "talk about Renfroe". He's a Brewer now and that's that. My point was that we're not underestimating Amed's value in comparison. I will say this though. Over 6 yrs he has a career OPS+ of 108 and that's being drug down a bit by his 2017 and 2020 seasons. He's also 29 and I expect his plate discipline to improve. His SO% continues to improve. With his power even the slightest improvement in plate discipline will net big results. If you average his HR and 2B we're looking at 38 HR and 33 2B per 600 AB. That's a bit more than "meh" to me.

Actually, Hunter's WAR was 2.3 in 21 and that is close to 3 WAR in a 600 AB season. 2018 and 2019 would average out to about 3.4 WAR. If the defensive metrics liked him better he would be a 4-5 WAR player. Thing is, he's a pretty good defensive player.
 
CDAV45 said:
It wasn't so much the "talk about Renfroe". He's a Brewer now and that's that. My point was that we're not underestimating Amed's value in comparison. I will say this though. Over 6 yrs he has a career OPS+ of 108 and that's being drug down a bit by his 2017 and 2020 seasons. He's also 29 and I expect his plate discipline to improve. His SO% continues to improve. With his power even the slightest improvement in plate discipline will net big results. If you average his HR and 2B we're looking at 38 HR and 33 2B per 600 AB. That's a bit more than "meh" to me.

Actually, Hunter's WAR was 2.3 in 21 and that is close to 3 WAR in a 600 AB season. 2018 and 2019 would average out to about 3.4 WAR. If the defensive metrics liked him better he would be a 4-5 WAR player. Thing is, he's a pretty good defensive player.
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He’s wildly inconsistent, and just a slightly above average run producer when you average out the highs and lows. His defensive value is neutral at best.

He has 5.8 WAR across 576 games and a 106 wRC+ via Fangraphs, whose WAR metric is considered to be the go-to for position players.

Conclusion: He’s a decent hitter who doesn’t provide any value elsewhere. That’s very meh for me, but maybe it isn’t for you.

I don’t care that much about Amed either, but he is younger by a good bit, and has had a better career so far.
 
CATS44 said:
************

Palacios is an OF. He is really bad at 2B.

**********
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Sorry @CATS44 , I have to disagree with your take that Palacios is really bad at 2B.

While I can acknowledge there are better 2B options in the CLE system, that is more a function of the talented depth.
In another organization (one with gushing OF depth like CLE has gushing middle INF depth), Richie would be a 2B for them and not an OF.

Richie is not a gold glove player in either spot but he is a talented ball player that can help almost every team.
He is a ball player like those constantly found by Tampa and Oakland. The name doesn't jump out at you but as the games/ series is played, you see he is constantly in the action and doing those little things to help his squad succeed.

Afterward its more head shaking and "I can't belief 'so n so' did it to us again..."
 
Derek said:
He’s wildly inconsistent, and just a slightly above average run producer when you average out the highs and lows. His defensive value is neutral at best.

He has 5.8 WAR across 576 games and a 106 wRC+ via Fangraphs, whose WAR metric is considered to be the go-to for position players.

Conclusion: He’s a decent hitter who doesn’t provide any value elsewhere. That’s very meh for me, but maybe it isn’t for you.

I don’t care that much about Amed either, but he is younger by a good bit, and has had a better career so far.
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We can agree to disagree I guess, but "wildly inconsistent" isn't accurate. Pull the 122 AB from the 2020 season and you have a pretty consistent player regardless if you like the numbers or not. You're looking at slightly better numbers than I gave you. You're talking about a 30 HR/30 2B hitter and an OFer that will be towards the top of the league in assists. He did have more errors in Fenway's RF than any other time in his career, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that. Fenway's RF is notoriously tricky.

Fangraphs isn't any more reliable than BR when it comes to WAR.

In 5 seasons accumulating over 2000 AB, Amed has an OPS+ over 100(101) once. I guess it's what you value and I'll take Renfroe's offensive profile everyday of the week over Amed's and it's not even close. To each his own I guess.
 
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