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2022 NBA Draft Safari

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MirORich said:
From a Fedor PD article today. Article of course mentioned plenty of others but here is a paragraph on Eason and Branham, both of whom Fedor assets has fans in the Cavs FO

“LSU’s Tari Eason and Baylor’s Jeremy Sochan may not be ideal stylistic fits because of a defense-first package, but sources say the Cavs like both prospects and a pure talent grab would be awfully tempting. At least one member of the organization currently likes Eason most of the realistic options at No. 14.”

“Despite Ohio State’s Malaki Branham being viewed as more of a 2 than a 3, he has plenty of fans in Cleveland’s front office, sources say. Branham certainly checks the shooting box, hitting 49.8% from the field, 41.6% from 3-point range and 83.3% from the free-throw line. Branham, who one executive compared to Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton, also showed an ability to create on his own, scoring at all three levels.”

Additional tweet asserting the the Cavs liked Patrick Williams and making (his own) comp between Eason and Williams

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This is kind of why beat writers should stay out of scouting endeavors. :chuckle:

His shot looks "gross".......this describing a 6'8" wing that shot 80% from the FT line, on 200 attempts.

Only 22 SF's or SF/PF tweeners shot 80% or better from the line. That out of a pool of 104 players in the possession era.

Mechanically, whatever he is doing is obviously repeatable.......and when evaluating shooting mechanics, that is really all that matters.

Does this player get consistent results?
Does this player get consistent release patterns?
When he enters in to the back half of his motion, where is the ball, elbow, shoulders?

There's so much more to shot evaluation than the esthetics of a players' shot.
 
I like Eason but are we sure he not a taller Okoro, both same age right now but are defense first……Eason on the court same time with Mobley and Allen, where is the floor spacing …..Just asking
 
@I'mWithDan What does your model say about Branham?

I'm pretty much on board with all the options at 14 outside of Ochai and maybe Branham.
 
I'mWithDan said:
This is kind of why beat writers should stay out of scouting endeavors. :chuckle:

His shot looks "gross".......this describing a 6'8" wing shot 80% from the FT line, on 200 attempts.

Only 22 SF's or SF/PF tweeners shot 80% or better from the line. That out of a pool of 104 players in the possession era.

Mechanically, whatever he is doing is obviously repeatable.......and when evaluating shooting mechanics, that is really all that matters.

Does this player get consistent results?
Does this player get consistent release patterns?
When he enters in to the back half of his motion, where is the ball, elbow, shoulders?

There's so much more to shot evaluation than the esthetics of a players' shot.
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I agree but I’ll also grant him the patience of it being a twitter exchange and not how he wrote about it in an article.

I have seen writers raise questions about Eason’s shot in the half court as 28/78 from 3 is certainly not horrible but also not a plus either for an older Sophomore.

However the improvement in both 3P% and FT% from his freshman year at Cincinnati to last year at LSU is certainly a positive indicator
 
cliffdawg said:
I like Eason but are we sure he not a taller Okoro, both same age right now but are defense first……Eason on the court same time with Mobley and Allen, where is the floor spacing …..Just asking
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Eason actually produces meaningful defensive statistics, unlike Okoro.
 
Amherstcavsfan said:
@I'mWithDan What does your model say about Branham?

I'm pretty much on board with all the options at 14 outside of Ochai and maybe Branham.
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One thing to consider with both Ochai and Branham is that while both get the “small” label for being 6’5”, they both have longer wingspan the Mathurin and equal to Daniels.

So when arguments are being made against those two, I need to hear a lot more than just their height or length being used against them
 
Amherstcavsfan said:
@I'mWithDan What does your model say about Branham?

I'm pretty much on board with all the options at 14 outside of Ochai and maybe Branham.
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It doesn't love him. It views Ochai and Branham similarly.

They derive all their value from scoring. So historically speaking, you need to be really sure those guys can actually score at the NBA level. Because if they can't, their profiles tend to not offer much else.

Ochai would be a guy I'd be more confident in bucking that trend, just because he has plus athletic gifts.....Branham would be a really underwhelming guy to take at #14 to me.
 
That
I'mWithDan said:
Just to drive the foul thing home.

Screen-Shot-2022-05-18-at-1-54-28-PM.png


If your argument is less OREB at the NBA level on the wing, his BLK/STL/PF rate is still really good as well.

There's obviously some qualitative scouting here.....like are his fouls dumb fouls, etc.

But his data says he gets a lot of production out of those fouls.
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That’s fair, and the data backs up he is a high impact player elsewhere, he just seems like a guy who can get unplayable offensively because he can only go right and even though he was 36%, he was low volume enough to make you question how legit it is and in the playoffs, people are going to contest his right side and make it even more difficult to shoot. I think he was a guy that has NBA athleticism playing in college at 21 years old and dominating like he should. He won’t have those advantages physically in the nba.

We already have an unplayable wing in the playoffs not sure we need 1 1/2. And the reality is the cavs need a wing who can shoot, guard their guy, and is seasoned enough to start to contribute next year. It’s probably going to be Ochai Agbaji.

Edited to add: I will say, a lot of what I’m saying is based on the eye test. I can appreciate the analytics behind it and he does test really well so I think that should be a factor. I trust your model so I take my eye test with a grain of salt lol. I’m drawn to aesthetically pleasing players so it could be my own issue.
 
cliffdawg said:
I like Eason but are we sure he not a taller Okoro, both same age right now but are defense first……Eason on the court same time with Mobley and Allen, where is the floor spacing …..Just asking
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Shield your eyes :chuckle:

Screen-Shot-2022-05-18-at-2-18-15-PM.png


I can't even describe the production gap here but it would be something like the distance from Pluto to Earth.
 
I'mWithDan said:
I think Williams is a guy people just don't know enough about.

Analytically, he is one of the best center prospects.......ever. :chuckle:

Screen-Shot-2022-05-18-at-1-24-04-PM.png


After seeing his measurements......at 13, position be damned to me.

It is entirely possible Williams is the best player in this draft 5 years from now.

That is more my stance on him......it isn't taking a center to take a center......the guy has elite possession based production and ridiculous measurements.
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Regardess of all of that I just don’t see a world where he is going to out produce a guy like Jarrett Allen who has already made an all star team at 23 year old, is locked up long term, is beloved and valued by the franchise and his teammates…and was an anchor of one of the best defenses in the entire NBA when healthy.

I’m a big proponent of BPA most of the time but I can’t reconcile it. Williams would have to become an all-NBA center. He’s not an offensive phenom so you’re talking about another roll man, rebounder, defender. That is probably the most gettable asset in the NBA and I think it drags down Williams value overall especially for a team like the Cavs.

I guess you could probably trade Jarrett Allen to Charlotte for #13. Would they give us Bridges AND #13 for Allen? I’d be okay with that. Then we take Williams, we reup Bridges for a win NOW wing, and then take the best developmental wing left at 14 between Daniels/Eason/Dieng? Or we go for a scorer like a Branham or a guard like TyTy if we lock down a guy like Bridges?

The Cavs FO would have to have a massive set of cojones to do something like that given Allen being a bonafide under 25 all star who may even be better yet next year just because we believe in Mark Williams that much? But I guess that would be one way to build our team out better. We’d potentially be taking a step back with that though as the youth would be insane…maybe we keep our pick and give Indians 2 seconds because of it and draft one more lotto guy next year too?

I dunno.

I think the Cavs will play it safe, keep Allen and draft a wing. I think Eason really is starting to materialize as THE top target for the Cavs. He’s pretty much exactly what they need if they can get to a place where they believe in that jump shot.
 
I'mWithDan said:
It doesn't love him. It views Ochai and Branham similarly.

They derive all their value from scoring. So historically speaking, you need to be really sure those guys can actually score at the NBA level. Because if they can't, their profiles tend to not offer much else.

Ochai would be a guy I'd be more confident in bucking that trend, just because he has plus athletic gifts.....Branham would be a really underwhelming guy to take at #14 to me.
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A lot of guys rack up stats against the non conference schedule. But Branham took time to ramp up and earn the full trust from Holtman.

If you plug in his stats, scoring, and shooting from the start of B1G play, how does your model not love that:

52% FG
45% 3P
81% FT
16 PPG as a one of the younger players in the draft in an offense that was designed to feature Liddell
 
MirORich said:
One thing to consider with both Ochai and Branham is that while both get the “small” label for being 6’5”, they both have longer wingspan the Mathurin and equal to Daniels.

So when arguments are being made against those two, I need to hear a lot more than just their height or length being used against them
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I don't really care that much about taking a guy who fits positionally, although obviously I prefer to have someone who isn't a pure center. This team still need a lot to contend, and further, I think they need another big time talent swing.
I'mWithDan said:
It doesn't love him. It views Ochai and Branham similarly.

They derive all their value from scoring. So historically speaking, you need to be really sure those guys can actually score at the NBA level. Because if they can't, their profiles tend to not offer much else.

Ochai would be a guy I'd be more confident in bucking that trend, just because he has plus athletic gifts.....Branham would be a really underwhelming guy to take at #14 to me.
Click to expand...
This is my fear with Branham as well. He's not overly athletic and his scoring at Ohio State mostly relied upon him being a great shooter, which wasn't consistent for him this year.

There is basically no way I'm leaving this draft with Ochai or Branham at this point and feeling good about it. Those seem like big swings on guys who might be a decent role players. Eason and Daniels have the ability to be lockdown, defensive impact players.
 
InBoobieWeTrust said:
Regardess of all of that I just don’t see a world where he is going to out produce a guy like Jarrett Allen who has already made an all star team at 23 year old, is locked up long term, is beloved and valued by the franchise and his teammates…and was an anchor of one of the best defenses in the entire NBA when healthy.

I’m a big proponent of BPA most of the time but I can’t reconcile it. Williams would have to become an all-NBA center. He’s not an offensive phenom so you’re talking about another roll man, rebounder, defender. That is probably the most gettable asset in the NBA and I think it drags down Williams value overall especially for a team like the Cavs.

I guess you could probably trade Jarrett Allen to Charlotte for #13. Would they give us Bridges AND #13 for Allen? I’d be okay with that. Then we take Williams, we reup Bridges for a win NOW wing, and then take the best developmental wing left at 14 between Daniels/Eason/Dieng? Or we go for a scorer like a Branham or a guard like TyTy if we lock down a guy like Bridges?

The Cavs FO would have to have a massive set of cojones to do something like that given Allen being a bonafide under 25 all star who may even be better yet next year just because we believe in Mark Williams that much? But I guess that would be one way to build our team out better. We’d potentially be taking a step back with that though as the youth would be insane…maybe we keep our pick and give Indians 2 seconds because of it and draft one more lotto guy next year too?

I dunno.

I think the Cavs will play it safe, keep Allen and draft a wing. I think Eason really is starting to materialize as THE top target for the Cavs. He’s pretty much exactly what they need if they can get to a place where they believe in that jump shot.
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For sure. He's just one of the guys that is really out there physically / analytically.

Williams and Eason are the two guys who seem grossly undervalued in the mock drafts, so I am curious to see where they fall in the draft.

Barnes was a guy in a similar mock draft range last year 10-14, who went in the top 4.

I don't believe that is Eason's ceiling in a class like this.....but relative to their measurements and production, I view both as 2 of the best 6-7 players in this draft.

If you can get one of the best 6-7 profiles at #14 and he's the last guy of that tier, you kind of just have to take him (to me) and figure the rest out as you go. That is more my stance on guys like him.
 
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