2022 NBA Draft Safari

[cliffdawg]

FYI I do understand it was a bad take by me putting Okoro and Eason on the same level, I guess the point I was trying to make was could we afford another non shooter and hope he developed a respectable jump shot, after many posters roasts Okoro for that same reason……I understand Eason will give you a little more on defense ( Potentially) but is that what we’re after right now .

 

[I'mWithDan]

@MirORich here's some of that data on wings especially.

You can see ages are just all over the map at the SF position......sorted by VORP.

Look at the pick numbers for some of those guys vs how good their PDIFF numbers were.

Just shows how strong of an indicator PDIFF is for this position especially. 17 of 20 were median or better (.79).......Jones just missed.

Especially when considering 12 of the 20 guys went #10 overall or later, which is wild.

Wing evaluation just seems really bad still among NBA teams.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Am still curious how your model would look at Branham’s profile if it takes into consideration his conference play to the end of the year stats only.

Once he settled in after 10 non conference games, his shooting % seem pretty elite at all levels

It improves his overall profile as a scorer.......but still pegs him as the exact same type of prospect.

Absolutely has to score at the NBA level, as he likely provides little else.

So his uptick in PDIFF is pretty much solely attributed to his scoring efficiency increase.

GS/ADJ is impact less scoring.....negative is obviously bad.

Impact less scoring didn't really change and his hustle stats actually got worse in conference play.

He generally has bad hustle per foul measures too.

 

[stick]

Another wildcard is Sochan. I don't like him particularly, but I think there's a pretty decent chance he ends up in the top 10 by draft time.

Before moving into the top 4, Sochan seemed exactly the kinda player Mike Brown would clamor for within the Kings front office.

 

[Smooth]

Agbaji's measurements came in a little better than expected, and is just passable enough where it could work... Branham's on the other hand leaves me concerned he's strictly a 2, and this team doesn't need another 2..

Some historical comparisons (height w/ shoes, standing reach, wingspan, weight):

Agbaji: 6’5.75", 8’8, 6’10.25" (216)
--
Justise Winslow: 6’6.5", 8’8.5", 6’10.25" (221)
Lance Stephenson: 6’5.75", 8’7”, 6’10.5” (227)

Branham: 6’5.50", 8’6.5", 6’’10" (194)
--
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 6’5”, 8’6”, 6’9.5” (203)
Will Barton: 6’6”, 8’6.5", 6’9.5”, 174
Alec Burks: 6’6”, 8’7.5", 6’10”, 192

Lamar Stevens: 6’6.75", 8’5”, 6’9” (228)
Dylan Windler: 6’7.5”, 8’8.5", 6’10” (195)

I don't think either is ideal but Agbaji is at least a hair longer and has significantly more bulk that makes me more comfortable with the thought of him playing more 3 than 2..

Ohio State already had to hide Branham and yank him off the floor early in the year because of his defense, so having underwhelming measurements for a 3 doesn't inspire confidence he's what the Cavs need despite his shooting profile...

 

[NMCav]

Unsure how reliable this source is. But if Cavs have interest in John Butler I would be slightly confused. He's is a 7-1 Center who weighs 174 pounds. I guess he could play PF next to both Allen and Mobley and the skill set fits some what. But I see no way this dude ever gets big enough to handle NBA bigs. Shit he may get bullied by SG and SFs.

 

[MirORich]

It improves his overall profile as a scorer.......but still pegs him as the exact same type of prospect.

Absolutely has to score at the NBA level, as he likely provides little else.

So his uptick in PDIFF is pretty much solely attributed to his scoring efficiency increase.

GS/ADJ is impact less scoring.....negative is obviously bad.

Impact less scoring didn't really change and his hustle stats actually got worse in conference play.

He generally has bad hustle and per foul measures too.

To me scoring at all three levels in the NBA is important enough to at least consider even if you’re not a good defender or playmaker. Ideally LeVert would be that guy but there is nothing historically about his outside shooting to suggest he will with certainty.

So with Branham, if I knew that he would for sure be a Khris Middleton or Micheal Redd pre injury scorer around Garland/Mobley than I might find that extremely valuable and count in the defense Mobley, Allen and a 3&D SF provided as the glue to what could still be great team defense.

But I’d have to feel so confident a player like that was actually going to reach that Middleton/Redd level and be a plus scorer from midrange and three and able to get scoring done when a body is on him. I see some of that in Branham but would have loved a second season from him to have a bugger sample size and see the developmental arc further on.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Agbaji's measurements came in a little better than expected, and is just passable enough where it could work... Branham's on the other hand leaves me concerned he's strictly a 2, and this team doesn't need another 2..

Some historical comparisons (height w/ shoes, standing reach, wingspan, weight):

Agbaji: 6’5.75", 8’8, 6’10.25" (216)
--
Justise Winslow: 6’6.5", 8’8.5", 6’10.25" (221)
Lance Stephenson: 6’5.75", 8’7”, 6’10.5” (227)

Branham: 6’5.50", 8’6.5", 6’’10" (194)
--
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 6’5”, 8’6”, 6’9.5” (203)
Will Barton: 6’6”, 8’6.5", 6’9.5”, 174
Alec Burks: 6’6”, 8’7.5", 6’10”, 192

Lamar Stevens: 6’6.75", 8’5”, 6’9” (228)
Dylan Windler: 6’7.5”, 8’8.5", 6’10” (195)

I don't think either is ideal but Agbaji is at least a hair longer and has significantly more bulk that makes me more comfortable with the thought of him playing more 3 than 2..

Ohio State already had to hide Branham and yank him off the floor early in the year because of his defense, so having underwhelming measurements for a 3 doesn't inspire confidence he's what the Cavs need despite his shooting profile...

Will be curious to see how Ochai tests athletically, as his size was definitely a pleasant surprise.

I would have guessed he'd be more in the combo guard size range (6'3-6'4" ish) but his length and bulk make him far more interesting given his shooting.

I don't think he can survive full time at the 3......but his measurements at least indicate he should be able to soak up some minutes there for us.

 

[MirORich]

Ohio State already had to hide Branham and yank him off the floor early in the year because of his defense, so having underwhelming measurements for a 3 doesn't inspire confidence he's what the Cavs need despite his shooting profile...

I’m never going to be too concerned about a true freshman not fully understanding or committing to team defense in the first 5-10 games of his collegiate career.

That seems a bit strange to focus on

As far a a strict 2/SG…..

I think you can fairly say the Cavs don’t need another PG, PF, and Center because Garland, Mobley, and Allen are so clearly the core and great players for their positions.

Having a lot of twos don’t mean they are the right ones.

So for the long term around Mobley/Garland, I think it’s still fair to ask if maybe the DO need a 2 and then yes, they clearly also do need a 3/SF/Big Wing.

Too bad we don’t have two picks in the top15!

 

[I'mWithDan]

To me scoring at all three levels in the NBA is important enough to at least consider even if you’re not a good defender or playmaker. Ideally LeVert would be that guy but there is nothing historically about his outside shooting to suggest he will with certainty.

So with Branham, if I knew that he would for sure be a Khris Middleton or Micheal Redd pre injury scorer around Garland/Mobley than I might find that extremely valuable and count in the defense Mobley, Allen and a 3&D SF provided as the glue to what could still be great team defense.

But I’d have to feel so confident a player like that was actually going to reach that Middleton/Redd level and be a plus scorer from midrange and three and able to get scoring done when a body is on him. I see some of that in Branham but would have loved a second season from him to have a bugger sample size and see the developmental arc further on.

The biggest limiting factor there, to me, is how underwhelming Garland is physically.

I don't know how you could reliably survive in the NBA with two guys who defend at a below average level and who both possess very average frames.

Lillard and McCollum were electric scorers, far beyond what you could reasonably expect from Garland / Branham and that didn't even work.

There's just more paths to success with some of the other profiles at #14, even if every "ideal" guy is gone.

I think he's more so a bad fit, vs. a bad prospect.

 

[Cassity14]

Branham offers size and scoring, so I think he could fit with the Cavs. He has what seems to be the best outside shot of guys we're considering at 14, and I absolutely want Garland's long-term running mate to be an equally-lethal outside threat.

Ya'll have me super excited about Eason though. I think I value him highest, but I'd be far from disappointed with a Branham pick.

 

[Smooth]

I’m never going to be too concerned about a true freshman not fully understanding or committing to team defense in the first 5-10 games of his collegiate career.

That seems a bit strange to focus on

As far a a strict 2/SG…..

I think you can fairly say the Cavs don’t need another PG, PF, and Center because Garland, Mobley, and Allen are so clearly the core and great players for their positions.

Having a lot of twos don’t mean they are the right ones.

So for the long term around Mobley/Garland, I think it’s still fair to ask if maybe the DO need a 2 and then yes, they clearly also do need a 3/SF/Big Wing.

Too bad we don’t have two picks in the top15!

I don't disagree the Cavs should focus on building around Mobley/Garland/Allen, but acquiring another 2 would be a mismanagement of the roster.. It would be one thing if the Cavs had a slight logjam at the 2... But currently, they have LeVert, Sexton and Okoro at the 2, with Osman playing some 2 and Garland shifting over to the 2 when two point guards share the floor... There's just not enough minutes to go around at the 2, let alone throwing another true 2 in the mix who doesn't have the length or defense to consistently hold up at the 3 on the other end..

 

[kriegs]

I would be kicking the tires on Sacramento.

Ivey, to me, is the BPA at #4......then another drop off.

I'm curious if they would have any interest in moving down, if they didn't love him.

#14, Future unprotected 1st, some other asset (Sexton?)

This was my first reaction to watching the lottery. I hope they are for some reason fans of LeVert? Ivey is one of those Team USA guys so the narrative says Koby will at least try.

 

[Smooth]

Taking a look at some measurements for the guard prospects: Daniels is built like a wing, Washington measured out well and Chandler is really small..

Height w/shoes - Standing reach - Wingspan - Weight

Daniels: 6’7.5”, 8’9”, 6’10.75 (213)
--
Dylan Windler: 6’7.5”, 8’8.5", 6’10” (195)
Joe Ingles: 6’8.25”, 8’9”, 6’10.25” (209)
Shabazz Muhammad: 6’6.25”, 8’8.5”, 6’11” (221)
Chris Middleton: 6’8.25”, 8’7”, 6’10.75” (216)
Tobias Harris: 6’7.76”, 8’7.5”, 6’11” (222)

Washington: 6’3.75, 8’3.5”, 6’8” (196)
--
Russell Westbrook: 6’3.5”, 8’4”, 6’7.75” (192)
Gary Payton II: 6’3”, 8’3.5”, 6’8” (183)
Bradley Beal: 6’4.75”, 8’4”, 6’8” (201)

Chandler: 6’0.5”, 8’1”, 6’5.25” (172)
--
Tyus Jones: 6’2”, 8’1”, 6’5” (184)
Trey Burke: 6’1.25”, 8’1.5”, 6’6.5” (187)

Daniels best comparison is oddly another Australian in Joe Ingles.. If you notice, all his close comps are wing players and I included Middleton and Harris in there just to showcase how long/big Daniels actually is and his likely versatility 1-4...

Washington oddly enough measured out super close to a young Westbrook... Obvious different athletic talents but he should easily be able to play in two point guard lineups with some additional weight gain..

Chandler is a big loser with just how small and light he is on top of his average measurements.. I think you can drop him off the 14 list...

 

[MirORich]

I don't disagree the Cavs should focus on building around Mobley/Garland/Allen, but acquiring another 2 would be a mismanagement of the roster.. It would be one thing if the Cavs had a slight logjam at the 2... But currently, they have LeVert, Sexton and Okoro at the 2, with Osman playing some 2 and Garland shifting over to the 2 when two point guards share the floor... There's just not enough minutes to go around at the 2, let alone throwing another true 2 in the mix who doesn't have the length or defense to consistently hold up at the 3 on the other end..

Osman is a zero factor so that’s not relevant in any way

I understand the idea of the number of SG types we have on the team.

I am simply saying in terms of addressing the long term best build around Garland and Mobley, it’s fair to not be bound by the current make up of the team and also/make sure that amongst the quantity of SG’s you have, are any of them the RIGHT SG to be paired up with Garland and Mobley during their early primes that will begin in a few years here now.

Will it be easier to find the right SH/scorer/shooter in the future drafting in the 20-25 range or easier to find the right 3&D wing?

Tough questions I don’t have an answer for but I just don’t think we absolutely rule out a SG simply based on our current roster composition on 5/18/22