23 Offseason GM Thread

I really don't understand how this is so difficult.

1. Bieber starts the 2023 season with us regardless of a contract extension.
2. If no extension is agreed upon and we SUCK in 2023 aka on the outside looking in.
3. You better believe they will listen to deadline offers for Bieber.
4. Regardless of how we finish the season a Bieber rental (@sportscoach - this means he hasn't been extended) for 2024 is likely to be shopped as well.. But if win it all or run deep into the playoffs, we maybe OK with the QO compensation following the 2024 season.

sportscoach said:

I'm sure they already have a good idea of offers that they could get right now. When Antonetti said he was going to be in Cleveland, that told me, he's not going anywhere this season, regardless of signing an extension or not... if he gets dealt it will be before the 24 season starts. With so many arms ready and likely another veteran SP around, I think we can afford to move him then. Why trade Bieber mid season when we are trying to win it... It sends the wrong message to the team. You can get away with trading Bauer and Clevinger since they had some issues at times. Bieber doesn't have that and he is the leader and Ace of the starters. You cannot trade him mid season and expect smooth sailing if you are trying to compete. He's going to be in Cleveland for all of 23 as long as Antonetti and Francona feel the Guardians are in the playoffs.

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Let me edit my post to make it more clear, LOL.

sportscoach said:

Dodgers could afford to do it and resign him. He's from Cali as well. People forget Bieber isn't very old and he's going to be a young free agent as well.

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They could but they dont seem to be into giving away huge prospect packages. Look at the Turner trade or the Betts trade. They tend to compensate with a solid prospect or two plus taking on some debt.

hockeyjohn said:

Expecting two young pitchers to both be successful with limited AA experience is just outright foolish in my opinion when you do not have to do it. Trading Bieber kills the 2023 season and sends a terrible message to a young team and to the fanbase. Antonetti will not sell out 2023 nor should he. How many pitchers and players have been ruined by being pushed well before they are ready?

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You can have that opinion John, but that doesn't make it so. We've been over this before. I'm not just saying trade Bieber regardless, but if he will not agree to an extension then it is what needs to be done for the welfare of this organization.

I don't know how many have been ruined, but none of the 17 promoted were ruined this past season. In fact, they made us much better so........

DerekG123 said:

They could but they dont seem to be into giving away huge prospect packages. Look at the Turner trade or the Betts trade. They tend to compensate with a solid prospect or two plus taking on some debt.

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It is what both sides are negotiating and want. Takes 2 to tango. Price was debt in Betts trade but Scherzer in Turner trade had value (high contract that mitigated some but on $10 million remaining for a very solid year year of 3.2 WAR pre-trade and 2.7 post-trade, it was not perse a debt dump actually opposite as the salary was derred and dodgers paid nothing ). Per BTV, Turner - 67 + Scherzer - 12 = 79 and for that, Dodgers gave up their top 2 prospects Ruiz - 40 and Gray - 29 plus 2 other lower prospects for about 71 value. Washington could have kept Scherzer for the Comp pick thus this assumes Ruiz+Gray > Turner in this trade prospective (as draft pick would have been better than they 2 other prospects).

Right now, Bieber has 57 value so we could get 3 top 100 prospects but they would be lower tier (#5-#7 MLB prospects) -- Pages, Pepoit and Stone (66-77 on MLB pipeline) would be about 58 on BTV (but who knows in real world). If we want higher prospects, then you take less elsewhere. Cartaya (who I doubt they will trade easily) is 50.6.

I think Dodger do trade prospects (2 other top 10 prospects 2020 are now gone in Beeter and White with Ruiz and Gray). It is that they usually have few holes to fill and have $$$ to figure it out other places like FA first. Yet, it will just take them to say they want Bieber come July (if we are out of playoffs and can't resign AND Dodgers pitching needs another facelift with Buehler out w TJS and Kershaw aging). Low odds but I won't say Dodgers won't do it based on just 2 trades as there were different circumstances in each (Dodgers willing to eat Price contract and wanting Scherzer as their #2-#3 in other).

CDAV45 said:

You can have that opinion John, but that doesn't make it so. We've been over this before. I'm not just saying trade Bieber regardless, but if he will not agree to an extension then it is what needs to be done for the welfare of this organization.

I don't know how many have been ruined, but none of the 17 promoted were ruined this past season. In fact, they made us much better so........

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Welfare of this team is winning in 23 and you have more wins with Bieber than trading Bieber... You cannot say we will get more wins if we trade Bieber unless we somehow convince the Angels to send us Trout and half his contract paid, then we could be talking, but otherwise losing Bieber will hurt the 23 season. Bibee and Williams may get their feet wet in 23 intl the bigs but in no way are they going to produce for us. Too soon...

CDAV45 said:

You can have that opinion John, but that doesn't make it so. We've been over this before. I'm not just saying trade Bieber regardless, but if he will not agree to an extension then it is what needs to be done for the welfare of this organization.

I don't know how many have been ruined, but none of the 17 promoted were ruined this past season. In fact, they made us much better so........

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Big Ernie?.. no one that matters..

petes999 said:

It is what both sides are negotiating and want. Takes 2 to tango. Price was debt in Betts trade but Scherzer in Turner trade had value (high contract that mitigated some but on $15 mill annual contract that was $5 mill at deadline for a very solid year year of 3.2 WAR pre-trade and 2.7 post-trade, it was not a debt dump ). Per BTV, Turner - 67 + Scherzer - 12 = 79 and for that, Dodgers gave up their top 2 prospects Ruiz - 40 and Gray - 29 plus 2 other lower prospects for about 71 value. Washington could have kept Scherzer for the Comp pick thus this assumes Ruiz+Gray > Turner in this trade prospective (as draft pick would have been better than they 2 other prospects).

Right now, Bieber has 57 value so we could get 3 top 100 prospects but they would be lower tier (#5-#7 MLB prospects) -- Pages, Pepoit and Stone (66-77 on MLB pipeline) would be about 58 on BTV (but who knows in real world). If we want higher prospects, then you take less elsewhere. Cartaya (who I doubt they will trade easily) is 50.6.

I think Dodger do trade prospects (2 other top 10 prospects 2020 are now gone in Beeter and White with Ruiz and Gray). It is that they usually have few holes to fill and have $$$ to figure it out other places like FA first. Yet, it will just take them to say they want Bieber come July (if we are out of playoffs and can't resign AND Dodgers pitching needs another facelift with Buehler out w TJS and Kershaw aging). Low odds but I won't say Dodgers won't do it based on just 2 trades as there were different circumstances in each (Dodgers willing to eat Price contract and wanting Scherzer as their #2-#3 in other).

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Vargas has to be apart of the Bieber deal, Vargas, Stone and Pepiot with maybe a prospect or two added. Cleveland isn't going lower than that. Pages is too risky of a prospect...

petes999 said:

It is ..... to say they want Bieber come July (if we are out of playoffs and can't resign AND Dodgers pitching needs another facelift ....

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If the Guardians are out of the playoffs by the middle/end of July, there is a 1 in 5 chance that it's because Bieber (or who we replaced him in trade prior to the start of the 2023 season) is on the shelf and/or unavailable.. Making whatever future deal or extension that could have been now rendered into the null/void section of the value quotient.. and with it.. the severe potential loss..

If Bieber is kept & isn't injured and the club decides to trade him in July, a CC Sabathia type return is possible.. Hopefully, PaT-BeNaL doesn't save the deal like Brantley did..

sportscoach said:

Welfare of this team is winning in 23 and you have more wins with Bieber than trading Bieber... You cannot say we will get more wins if we trade Bieber unless we somehow convince the Angels to send us Trout and half his contract paid, then we could be talking, but otherwise losing Bieber will hurt the 23 season. Bibee and Williams may get their feet wet in 23 intl the bigs but in no way are they going to produce for us. Too soon...

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No it's not and the exact reason this team found success in 22 is what you are suggesting won't happen. You don't know and claiming you do makes you look pretty silly to me. I knew this would happen with the success of the 22 season. Folks like you would drop the plan and the actual window and get all frantic with a win now mentality. Well, they're fucking winning now and they can do so without Bieber should they have to. You're starting to piss me off with your "matter of fact" BS. If you're not open to the idea then fine. If you think it's a bad idea that's understandable, but don't sit there feeding some line of shit like you can forsee any outcomes. You are full of shit when you do.

sportscoach said:

Vargas has to be apart of the Bieber deal, Vargas, Stone and Pepiot with maybe a prospect or two added. Cleveland isn't going lower than that. Pages is too risky of a prospect...

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Did you see that Vargas and Paiges have about same value on BTV 25.3 and 25.6 for Vargas. Just shows how some of these values are off and its all in the negotiations on what both sides want and are willing to give up such as 1 of Cartaya and small pieces or 2-3 level 2 pieces (towards the back half of top 100) (which was the point of the post). But, I get you....

CDAV45 said:

You can have that opinion John, but that doesn't make it so. We've been over this before. I'm not just saying trade Bieber regardless, but if he will not agree to an extension then it is what needs to be done for the welfare of this organization.

I don't know how many have been ruined, but none of the 17 promoted were ruined this past season. In fact, they made us much better so........

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And you can have your opinion, but that does not make it so. How about the welfare of the 2023 Guardians? Antonetti has to find the balance between moves for 2023 and moves for the future. A Bieber trade now, in my opinion, knocks that balance totally out of whack. I don't see him doing that.

hockeyjohn said:

And you can have your opinion, but that does not make it so. How about the welfare of the 2023 Guardians? Antonetti has to find the balance between moves for 2023 and moves for the future. A Bieber trade now, in my opinion, knocks that balance totally out of whack. I don't see him doing that.

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I don't know how you can determine that when you haven't seen anyone play the 23 season yet, what would be returned or how Bieber will perform. I haven't mentioned trading Bieber "now" anyway. All this is riding on him being extended....or not.

The welfare of the 23 Guardians is going to be just fine with or without Bieber in my estimation. I think CA made it clear that the season will start with Bieber and go from there. I don't think he's going to sign an extension with Cleveland, but I could be wrong. In some ways I hope I am and in others I hope I'm not. In all honesty, I'm not overly concerned with the 23 season and I think the youngest team in baseball will continue to get better regardless of whatever happens with Bieber.

petes999 said:

Did you see that Vargas and Paiges have about same value on BTV 25.3 and 25.6 for Vargas. Just shows how some of these values are off and its all in the negotiations on what both sides want and are willing to give up such as 1 of Cartaya and small pieces or 2-3 level 2 pieces (towards the back half of top 100) (which was the point of the post). But, I get you....

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aside for the useless ness of the BTV values....

Pages (pronounced Pah-haze) has an odd/effort filled stroke that says AAAA/MiLB'er.. He doesn't get on top of even the most ordinary of fastballs and doesn't recognize spin out of the pitcher's hand.He is nothing special with a glove on one hand, but, he can run a little bit.. I won't comment on his ability to track a fly ball and/or his instinctual reaction to the ball off the bat at this time other than to say: "smh" He would be the EXACT WRONG choice.. On the other hand, Vargas is a sweet swinging professional with a work ethic that would provide an example to ANYONE in the current Guardians system including the parent club.. He's exactly right for this club..

In short: Yes on Vargas.. HELL NO on Pages.. BTW.. as part of a deal for a guy who isn't being dealt for any reason or the world is ending.. makes the comment regarding Bieber for this package of Dodger prospects incredibly stupid.. So.. look at the source.. smh..

The Guardians can do worse than Cartaya as a backstop.. and have.. There are others who would be less expensive.. and capable..

I would recommend a deal for Vargas and perhaps Galiz.. and turn down Cartaya and or Pages...

Thoughts?

Gson said:

aside for the useless ness of the BTV values....

Pages (pronounced Pah-haze) has an odd/effort filled stroke that says AAAA/MiLB'er.. He doesn't get on top of even the most ordinary of fastballs and doesn't recognize spin out of the pitcher's hand.He is nothing special with a glove on one hand, but, he can run a little bit.. I won't comment on his ability to track a fly ball and/or his instinctual reaction to the ball off the bat at this time other than to say: "smh" He would be the EXACT WRONG choice.. On the other hand, Vargas is a sweet swinging professional with a work ethic that would provide an example to ANYONE in the current Guardians system including the parent club.. He's exactly right for this club..

In short: Yes on Vargas.. HELL NO on Pages.. BTW.. as part of a deal for a guy who isn't being dealt for any reason or the world is ending.. makes the comment regarding Bieber for this package of Dodger prospects incredibly stupid.. So.. look at the source.. smh..

The Guardians can do worse than Cartaya as a backstop.. and have.. There are others who would be less expensive.. and capable..

I would recommend a deal for Vargas and perhspa Galiz.. and turn down Cartaya and or Pages...

Thoughts?

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Dodgers aren't getting Bieber unless they give up two solid SP prospects, Vargas plus maybe Galiz and Frasso/Nastrini etc... Cleveland has no reason to lower their price and they won't. He's not going anywhere anyways...