2023 Season | Series #29 | Royals @ Guardians | July 6-9, 2023

KluberSociety said:

Take away Bieber and you only have 5 "MLB caliber" pitchers (including Allen), 2 of which have bounced around the IL including one who has been pretty terrible so far. So yeah then you're looking at guys like Battenfield and Curry as you mentioned who are a terrible downgrade over Bieber. This rotation is stretching it thin WITH Bieber, let alone without him.

We can think of how much we want the 3 kids to be pitching but if you're already waving the white flag in the playoffs, then why would you even want to "ride with the rookies"? and get them to those IP counts, particularly someone like Williams? And Williams threw 5.1 IP/start in AAA with a BB/9 of 4.1 so expecting him to provide the volume going forward seems extremely unrealistic.

Without Bieber, there is no room for basically anything wrong to happen, teetering on a tightrope. With Bieber we can still end up with Battenfield, et al. If you are trading someone like Bieber and not adding MLB pitching at the same time you're better off just getting prospects because you're already waving the white flag.

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You are missing a key point that I made ...
"Without McK, this team isn't set up for long playoff run whether we have Bieber or not. Trading Bieber has nothing to do with innings for the other 4 starters."

Trading Bieber for me has nothing to do with "playoffs" as to make playoffs
1) As you said, everything has to go right -- healthy Bieber and Civale
2) We need to ride our rookies as you don't want a serious downgrade with Battenfield, Curry or others like Gaddis -- even as a piggyback - as it is planned vs just pulling guy early to save innings when we are down
3) So for me, a playoff, is we "ride" with our best rookies Bibee, Williams and Allen as our 6th for those what ifs.... then my point, at playoffs they are at 150-160+ (with Williams high of 110 and Bibee and Allen at 132 high) ... so they can go 1 round in playoffs but not this "We have a chance for WS" as no one is left for innings.
4) Having McK back in September is the only way to make playoffs and go past round 1 and reports of having him back are a hope and prayer at best

33Y0 said:

I don't think anyone is saying he's a bum... the argument is that he's not an ace anymore.

His ERA is 3.77 and xERA is 4.92. His FIP is 4.12 and xFIP is 4.05. All of that is VERY average. His fastball velocity is in the 7th percentile in MLB, his curveball spin is 16th percentile, his K% is in the 26th percentile... nothing screams ace about him anymore.

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@Wham with the Right Hand got me looking into Bieber's pitch breakdown a bit more, particularly on why he's moved to so many cutters this year.

I think the original thesis was that he is throwing less curveballs now because he of some kind of injury but given this spin info it and now actually looking at effectiveness, it's clear that his curveball and slider are just reduced in effectiveness this year, and his cutter has actually been his best pitch.

Here's swinging strike rates by year and pitch. Yes the slider is still slightly higher than the cutter but it's supposed to be. Cutters aren't intended to be as much of a swing and miss pitch, so with how much he's been using it the fact that he's still getting as many whiffs as he is relative to his other pitches make it look like that's been clearly his most effective pitch in 2023. But the real story is just how ineffective his other pitches have been (especially compared to before). Under 4% for fastball whiff rate? Dreadful.

petes999 said:

You are missing a key point that I made ...
"Without McK, this team isn't set up for long playoff run whether we have Bieber or not. Trading Bieber has nothing to do with innings for the other 4 starters."

Trading Bieber for me has nothing to do with "playoffs" as to make playoffs
1) As you said, everything has to go right -- healthy Bieber and Civale
2) We need to ride our rookies as you don't want a serious downgrade with Battenfield, Curry or others like Gaddis -- even as a piggyback - as it is planned vs just pulling guy early to save innings when we are down
3) So for me, a playoff, is we "ride" with our best rookies Bibee, Williams and Allen as our 6th for those what ifs.... then my point, at playoffs they are at 150-160+ (with Williams high of 110 and Bibee and Allen at 132 high) ... so they can go 1 round in playoffs but not this "We have a chance for WS" as no one is left for innings.
4) Having McK back in September is the only way to make playoffs and go past round 1 and reports of having him back are a hope and prayer at best

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Even if McK is back, who knows how effective he'll be so yeah that's a hope and a prayer, I agree with you there.

I guess I'm of the opinion that you need to take advantage of every time you make the playoffs for the off chance that somehow things click and you get lucky enough to make a run.

If you are saying "no chance" at WS then yeah I'd generally just trade Bieber for prospects, but trading him in some kind of move for a MLB bat makes zero sense because it is also counterproductive to those goals. Adding a big bat or two isn't going to turn this team into a playoff team especially while decimating the pitching which already is basically uncompetitive.

So if you'd like to trade Bieber and not get MLB pitching back, then I think we need to go for AA/AAA kinds of players as opposed to MLB ones, as beefing up the current roster would actually be counterproductive.

KluberSociety said:

Even if McK is back, who knows how effective he'll be so yeah that's a hope and a prayer, I agree with you there.

I guess I'm of the opinion that you need to take advantage of every time you make the playoffs for the off chance that somehow things click and you get lucky enough to make a run.

If you are saying "no chance" at WS then yeah I'd generally just trade Bieber for prospects, but trading him in some kind of move for a MLB bat makes zero sense because it is also counterproductive to those goals. Adding a big bat or two isn't going to turn this team into a playoff team especially while decimating the pitching which already is basically uncompetitive.

So if you'd like to trade Bieber and not get MLB pitching back, then I think we need to go for AA/AAA kinds of players as opposed to MLB ones, as beefing up the current roster would actually be counterproductive.

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The kind of return for ANY player should follow/emulate/approximate the trade example when Bartolo Colon was traded for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips. None of these three guys (lee steven was also included, I think, but was inconsequential) were ready at the time of the deal.. not for at least a year or two later.. Their talent was unassailable.. and that's who the Guardians should focus on.. Guys who have the talent (talent will out) but are still relatively inexpensive in trade..

Example: my suggestion to acquire Patrick Bailey of the SF Giant.. two years ago.. Can't touch him now.. Same kind of suggestion has been made for Drew Romo in the Rockies system.. never going to happen now.. Shea Langeliers, Ivan Herrera and others have been suggested as well..

The idea that the Guardians can buy a "plug and play" piece that pushes them over the top, while possible.. is ever so unlikely..

These kinds of deals are done using veterans that are approaching their useful life with the Guardians. They may still be able to play, very well at times.. but.. their best days are coming to an end.. Bieber is in this spot. His value is still pretty good.. It's all but a certainty that both NY teams would love to NEVER SEE the BIEBS in a playoff ever.. Then again..he might flop..

Anyway.. trading aging talent for players who can perform both now and into the future is the mantra.. The truth of the matter is.. trading for talent is the only way to achieve success...

KluberSociety said:

If you are saying "no chance" at WS then yeah I'd generally just trade Bieber for prospects, but trading him in some kind of move for a MLB bat makes zero sense because it is also counterproductive to those goals.

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For me, <1% chance at WS as what are you going to get from McK even if he comes back from 3 months off. Is Bieber that Orel Ace that you can ride like Dodgers did in one of their run (and we tried with Kluber but fell short)? Last 2 years, he is not even Kluber when Kluber tried in 16. Thus, all your potential upside guys of Bibee and Williams are out of innings to make it past even the first WC round (as everyone agrees they are not fully ramped up).

Gson said:

The kind of return for ANY player should follow/emulate/approximate the trade example when Bartolo Colon was traded for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips. None of these three guys (lee steven was also included, I think, but was inconsequential) were ready at the time of the deal.. not for at least a year or two later.. Their talent was unassailable.. and that's who the Guardians should focus on.. Guys who have the talent (talent will out) but are still relatively inexpensive in trade..

Example: my suggestion to acquire Patrick Bailey of the SF Giant.. two years ago.. Can't touch him now.. Same kind of suggestion has been made for Drew Romo in the Rockies system.. never going to happen now.. Shea Langeliers, Ivan Herrera and others have been suggested as well..

The idea that the Guardians can buy a "plug and play" piece that pushes them over the top, while possible.. is ever so unlikely..

These kinds of deals are done using veterans that are approaching their useful life with the Guardians. They may still be able to play, very well at times.. but.. their best days are coming to an end.. Bieber is in this spot. His value is still pretty good.. It's all but a certainty that both NY teams would love to NEVER SEE the BIEBS in a playoff ever.. Then again..he might flop..

Anyway.. trading aging talent for players who can perform both now and into the future is the mantra.. The truth of the matter is.. trading for talent is the only way to achieve success...

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Back when Bieber was excellent, he still soiled his pants in the playoffs versus the Yankees.

KluberSociety said:

Even if McK is back, who knows how effective he'll be so yeah that's a hope and a prayer, I agree with you there.

I guess I'm of the opinion that you need to take advantage of every time you make the playoffs for the off chance that somehow things click and you get lucky enough to make a run.

If you are saying "no chance" at WS then yeah I'd generally just trade Bieber for prospects, but trading him in some kind of move for a MLB bat makes zero sense because it is also counterproductive to those goals. Adding a big bat or two isn't going to turn this team into a playoff team especially while decimating the pitching which already is basically uncompetitive.

So if you'd like to trade Bieber and not get MLB pitching back, then I think we need to go for AA/AAA kinds of players as opposed to MLB ones, as beefing up the current roster would actually be counterproductive.

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Doing nothing and not addressing needs won't turn this team into a playoff contender any more or any less, but it probably does damage the future for this organization. My guess is that it already has. If trading Bieber is "decimating the pitching" then we're fucked anyhow and I'm not sure that our "luck" is changed by keeping or trading Bieber either. It will require "luck" either way.

There are enough valuable pieces to address the needs of this team and Bieber is just one of them.

This conversation is difficult to discuss past "possibilities" without knowing exactly what trades will happen(or won't) and the returns. I understand those that would rather not trade Bieber even if I don't agree with it. It's a conundrum for sure and the fog of a shitty division only makes it more difficult to assess IMO.

Edited to add that Quantrill will hopefully be back by the end of the month. Curry can start and has pitched very well in 3 inning spurts. If he can remain effective through the lineup 2-3 times then he's a good option. How effective will Battenfield be? Will Cantillo get the call? Burns is pitching well and could replace Curry in his current role. We don't know exactly what will be acquired in any deals, but my guess is that there will be a ready SP or 2 to throw into the mix. All is not lost on the SP front. They could easily go with a 6 man rotation with one of the spots a Curry/Cantillo piggyback.

Gson said:

He isn't an ace... he isn't a lot of things.. but.. there are numerous moments....

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Let's compare Shane's stats to aces on other staffs in the AL...


Outside of Singer, Cease, and Blackburn... I'm not sure I'd take Bieber over any other ace in the AL.

CDAV45 said:

Doing nothing and not addressing needs won't turn this team into a playoff contender any more or any less, but it probably does damage the future for this organization. My guess is that it already has. If trading Bieber is "decimating the pitching" then we're fucked anyhow and I'm not sure that our "luck" is changed by keeping or trading Bieber either. It will require "luck" either way.

There are enough valuable pieces to address the needs of this team and Bieber is just one of them.

This conversation is difficult to discuss past "possibilities" without knowing exactly what trades will happen(or won't) and the returns. I understand those that would rather not trade Bieber even if I don't agree with it. It's a conundrum for sure and the fog of a shitty division only makes it more difficult to assess IMO.

Edited to add that Quantrill will hopefully be back by the end of the month. Curry can start and has pitched very well in 3 inning spurts. If he can remain effective through the lineup 2-3 times then he's a good option. How effective will Battenfield be? Will Cantillo get the call? Burns is pitching well and could replace Curry in his current role. We don't know exactly what will be acquired in any deals, but my guess is that there will be a ready SP or 2 to throw into the mix. All is not lost on the SP front. They could easily go with a 6 man rotation with one of the spots a Curry/Cantillo piggyback.

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The reason Curry shouldn't be starting games is not because we'd miss him in the janitor role but because he would be a terrible starter. Right now he's effectively operating as a two-pitch guy (whose second pitch isn't even good) who has gotten some pretty epic luck to outperform his peripherals (ERA: 3.11, xFIP: 5.04). When you throw two-pitch pitchers through a lineup a second time that doesn't tend to work well. Case in point: He has given up 11 runs in 9.1 innings the second time through the lineup (this does go back to 2022 but his ERA is 9 in 2023 as well). Clearly limited sample but it confirms the common sense thought which is that he should not be facing hitters a second time until he can vary speeds better.

Quantrill has been bad this year.

Battenfield might be okay if he somehow gets his velocity back but it doesn't seem like that's happening.

Cantillo is handing out walks like they're candy.

None of these pitchers are viable options other than maybe Quantrill and Battenfield and even with them it's very sketchy. You hope that they return to their old selves in some sense.

KluberSociety said:

The reason Curry shouldn't be starting games is not because we'd miss him in the janitor role but because he would be a terrible starter. Right now he's effectively operating as a two-pitch guy (whose second pitch isn't even good) who has gotten some pretty epic luck to outperform his peripherals (ERA: 3.11, xFIP: 5.04). When you throw two-pitch pitchers through a lineup a second time that doesn't tend to work well. Case in point: He has given up 11 runs in 9.1 innings the second time through the lineup (this does go back to 2022 but his ERA is 9 in 2023 as well). Clearly limited sample but it confirms the common sense thought which is that he should not be facing hitters a second time until he can vary speeds better.

Quantrill has been bad this year.

Battenfield might be okay if he somehow gets his velocity back but it doesn't seem like that's happening.

Cantillo is handing out walks like they're candy.

None of these pitchers are viable options other than maybe Quantrill and Battenfield and even with them it's very sketchy. You hope that they return to their old selves in some sense.

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Curry has developed further in his time in Cleveland and he is not just a 2 pitch pitcher. My guess is that he can give you 4-5 innings easily while only going through the order 2 times at most. Hell, Bieber can't pitch 3 times through a lineup at this point and his peripherals suck too. We're not talking about dealing the Shane Bieber of 2020 here.

Cantillo is handing out walks, but he's also striking out 11 batters per 9IP. I'd have to look if the walk rate is improving or not.

Quantrill hasn't been healthy this year. Hopefully he will be when he returns. You have to count on that because a healthy Cal Quantrill is a very effective innings eater in the back of a rotation.

I don't know about Battenfield tbh. It's a wait and see with him. Hopefully he can regain some of that velo and pitch effectively. I wish they would have held onto Pilkington at this point. We could have used his durability.

Again, we're not factoring the return of any trades. Would they get a Sheehan, Pepiot or Stone in a deal with the Dodgers? Certainly that would add to Civale, Bibee, Williams, Allen, Quantrill, Curry, Battenfield, Gaddis, Vallimont, Cantillo, Burns and whoever else I'm missing from the depth chart.

Do they make a deal for someone like Blackburn, see something in Vallimont that can be effective or both? I'll tell you this much, He's got a good clean delivery, short arm action, good movement on a 93-95 mph FB and a very solid change up to go along with a decent breaking pitch. I believe they see something in him and think that he could be another good find at a minimal cost. If nothing else he can eat some innings and he's certainly expendable at this point.

I have nothing but questions and opinions. Like I said before, we're discussing the scenario based on nothing but speculations.

CDAV45 said:

Curry has developed further in his time in Cleveland and he is not just a 2 pitch pitcher. My guess is that he can give you 4-5 innings easily while only going through the order 2 times at most. Hell, Bieber can't pitch 3 times through a lineup at this point and his peripherals suck too. We're not talking about dealing the Shane Bieber of 2020 here.

Cantillo is handing out walks, but he's also striking out 11 batters per 9IP. I'd have to look if the walk rate is improving or not.

Quantrill hasn't been healthy this year. Hopefully he will be when he returns. You have to count on that because a healthy Cal Quantrill is a very effective innings eater in the back of a rotation.

I don't know about Battenfield tbh. It's a wait and see with him. Hopefully he can regain some of that velo and pitch effectively. I wish they would have held onto Pilkington at this point. We could have used his durability.

Again, we're not factoring the return of any trades. Would they get a Sheehan, Pepiot or Stone in a deal with the Dodgers? Certainly that would add to Civale, Bibee, Williams, Allen, Quantrill, Curry, Battenfield, Gaddis, Vallimont, Cantillo, Burns and whoever else I'm missing from the depth chart.

Do they make a deal for someone like Blackburn, see something in Vallimont that can be effective or both? I'll tell you this much, He's got a good clean delivery, short arm action, good movement on a 93-95 mph FB and a very solid change up to go along with a decent breaking pitch. I believe they see something in him and think that he could be another good find at a minimal cost. If nothing else he can eat some innings and he's certainly expendable at this point.

I have nothing but questions and opinions. Like I said before, we're discussing the scenario based on nothing but speculations.

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The difference between Curry and Bieber is Curry's peripherals are about a full run per 9 IP worse and that's when he is only going one time through the lineup for the most part.

So far the 2nd time through the lineup this year:
7.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 HR, 3 BB, 4 K's.

If you just look at the first time through the lineup his ERA is an unsustainable 2.08 ERA but he isn't getting shellacked at least.

I agree with you on Quantrill and Battenfield almost completely. I still think Quantrill can have it but damn it's not like his velo is really down significantly or anything, so it's hard to say what's even going on. It's easy to chalk things up to health but we didn't hear anything about his health until he was bad, and that's usually not a good sign. Sometimes I think IL trips are brought on about by a pitcher's struggles where they feel it's best to just get a breather and figure stuff out when they'd pitch through whatever minor ailments they have otherwise. Long term I feel fine enough about Quantrill but I'm not confident he'll figure stuff out quickly and maybe he was just the luckiest pitcher in the world for the longest time. Who knows... In that case he can get back to average I guess.

If Cantillo is striking out 11 batters per 9 in AAA and walking almost 6, what will that translate to in the MLB? I can't think of any successful pitcher who has close to that many walks, and he's not even against the good hitters of the MLB and he's doing it. Clearly he is more than a little rough around the edges and seems more like a 2024 kind of guy, IF lucky. Can't expect him to function even remotely close to a starter and I know you mentioned piggybacking but he really just seems on the pathway to the BP.

I'm fine with about 3 ideas now...

1. Trade Bieber for prospects and sorta just give up the season and let guys like Battenfield and whoever scrap together the rest of the season
2. Hold onto Bieber because you can't get anything back
3. Trade Bieber and then add another pitcher

I don't know how well we can pull off #3 or even #1 just because of our track record and how Bieber has not looked very good this year so we probably are just stuck with #2. I don't like it a ton more than you do but I honestly think that there's a good chance he puts together a good offseason and contract year performance and can be traded for about as much next deadline as he would this one. So that is sort of what I'm banking on. This doesn't mean #1 or #3 shouldn't be attempted but just that it's likely going to be hard to pull the trigger on them given the market value of Bieber at the moment.

@CDAV45 Cantillo's walk rate in a SSS, has gone from about 0.73 / IP to 0.46 / IP from April/May to June/July this year.. It's trending in the right direction.. but... who can tell with 60 or so IP's...

Gson said:

@CDAV45 Cantillo's walk rate in a SSS, has gone from about 0.73 / IP to 0.46 / IP from April/May to June/July this year.. It's trending in the right direction.. but... who can tell with 60 or so IP's...

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Well that's encouraging at least

KluberSociety said:

The difference between Curry and Bieber is Curry's peripherals are about a full run per 9 IP worse and that's when he is only going one time through the lineup for the most part.

So far the 2nd time through the lineup this year:
7.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 HR, 3 BB, 4 K's.

If you just look at the first time through the lineup his ERA is an unsustainable 2.08 ERA but he isn't getting shellacked at least.

I agree with you on Quantrill and Battenfield almost completely. I still think Quantrill can have it but damn it's not like his velo is really down significantly or anything, so it's hard to say what's even going on. It's easy to chalk things up to health but we didn't hear anything about his health until he was bad, and that's usually not a good sign. Sometimes I think IL trips are brought on about by a pitcher's struggles where they feel it's best to just get a breather and figure stuff out when they'd pitch through whatever minor ailments they have otherwise. Long term I feel fine enough about Quantrill but I'm not confident he'll figure stuff out quickly and maybe he was just the luckiest pitcher in the world for the longest time. Who knows... In that case he can get back to average I guess.

If Cantillo is striking out 11 batters per 9 in AAA and walking almost 6, what will that translate to in the MLB? I can't think of any successful pitcher who has close to that many walks, and he's not even against the good hitters of the MLB and he's doing it. Clearly he is more than a little rough around the edges and seems more like a 2024 kind of guy, IF lucky. Can't expect him to function even remotely close to a starter and I know you mentioned piggybacking but he really just seems on the pathway to the BP.

I'm fine with about 3 ideas now...

1. Trade Bieber for prospects and sorta just give up the season and let guys like Battenfield and whoever scrap together the rest of the season
2. Hold onto Bieber because you can't get anything back
3. Trade Bieber and then add another pitcher

I don't know how well we can pull off #3 or even #1 just because of our track record and how Bieber has not looked very good this year so we probably are just stuck with #2. I don't like it a ton more than you do but I honestly think that there's a good chance he puts together a good offseason and contract year performance and can be traded for about as much next deadline as he would this one. So that is sort of what I'm banking on.

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I understand that KS, but Curry is all of 24 as well. Pitching to contact and limiting damage is a common theme with this pitching staff. That's what allows all of Bieber, Civale and Quantrill to be effective and log innings. I also believe that the long relief roll that Curry is in is one of the most difficult because it can be very inconsistent and unpredictable. There is no routine to it. I readily admit that he could fall flat on his face as a SP, but if depth is needed he should be given an opportunity IMO.

I think with Quantrill the ineffectiveness has more to to with the loss of control that came with the injury. If he can heal properly and pitch pain free then maybe his control will resurface. Battenfield I have no idea about. I was high on him, but he looked to be a different pitcher this year and not in a good way. What he did maintain was a heavy FB that hitters struggled to square up. Should he regain a couple of MPH then that could make him much better than he was initially. Lots of "ifs" with this pitching staff.

I need to dig a little deeper with Cantillo. I'm not sure how he's trending or what he's working on. We need to be careful when evaluating some of our minor league pitchers. There's develop going on irrespective on numbers. I can't intelligently speak to that, but maybe @BimboColesHair can chime in with some good information. There is the possibility that he just struggles with control, but I have no way of confirming/denying that accusation.

I find it hard to believe that they can't get anything back for Bieber. It likely isn't near as much as we could have acquired prior to the season, but he still holds good value in a wide open market with limited supply. I'm not looking at a Bieber trade in a vacuum. I would be aggressive with other moves as well, and I'm sure some of those ideas would send some folks around here into a frenzy of irrationality. Is there a deal to be had for Blackburn. Miami and Cleveland could be good matches where we send them a CFer and a SS for Cabrera. Just spitballing.

Don't sleep on Tanner Burns either. He's looking stronger than ever as he's matured physically. He's posting good numbers in Akron and I feel he should already be pitching in Columbus instead of someone like Norris, but that's just my opinion.

Nikhazy is in a similar boat as Cantillo. Racking up SO and limiting hits while walking too many. We should probably keep an eye on him too.

Gson said:

@CDAV45 Cantillo's walk rate in a SSS, has gone from about 0.73 / IP to 0.46 / IP from April/May to June/July this year.. It's trending in the right direction.. but... who can tell with 60 or so IP's...

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Thanks Gson!