2023 Season | Series #29 | Royals @ Guardians | July 6-9, 2023

[CDAV45]

The same people who complain that winning the Central doesn't mean anything, because it doesnt make us 'real' contenders are finally getting on board.

The same folks who complain about losing kids like Jones and Benson, because the FO wouldn't make a major prospects for MLB production now dont care.

The same folks that constantly harp about not having power are also getting on board.

Except for Kwan, no position prospect has hit the ground running and kept it up.

Career numbers so far...

Bo...196/562
Brennan...286/736
Arias...188/615
Freeman...266/651
Lavastida...083/350...in the minors
Oscar...278/741...in the minors
Fry...277/695
Rocchio...214/429...in the minors
Call...gone
Jones...gone
Benson...gone


Not much hitting the ground running and maintaining there.

Except for Bo and Rocchio, not one of those kids still in the org is worth in trade what he was 12 months ago.

The team right now is doing exactly what I said I expected it to do at the beginning of the season, to rounds of derision from so many. As the weather warmed up, I said they would hit...the vets would come around. Nails would hit, and should play nearly every day vs lefties. Amed would hit, and provide clutch RBIs. Straw's defense would more than outweigh his bat. We would make contact and run like hell...and play defense.

I also said that Murphy would blow up once he got out of that dungeon in Oakland, and that we would be better with him on this team. There is no denying either statement.

Folks were impressed with Minnesota, Chicago...and for whatever reason, Detroit. I said that the only one to worry about was Minnesota, but their health history would probably catch up with them. Chicago was a team of DHs that couldn't stay healthy, either.

I also predicted two years ago that if the FO didn't trade some prospects, we would have to give pretty good talent away. That has also happened.

And I said that attendance would follow last year's success.

If we trade Bieber, we will not have enough innings in our rotation to get thru the season. Pay attention, because in September, we play series with Tampa, Minnesota, the Angels, Texas, Baltimore, and the Reds. The only breaks we get are against KC and Detroit.

The three kids will be running on fumes, and without Bieber, we will be sending guys out, like Gaddis and Battenfield, to face the music...and the pen will be fried.

If this team stays reasonably healthy...esp whats left of the rotation...and the FO doesn't subtract..it will be in it until the end. If the FO adds a significant piece, it would make things more likely.

One other thing I predicted...

The two wild cards on this team were Civale and Sponge Bob. If Civale stayed healthy, he is a lot better than most on here think. If Oscar can regain his production level from last year, he will provide the RH power so many cry about...and we don't need a major addition to the offense.

We shall see.

With all due respect here CATS, you seem to be avoiding the whole truth. There's a few things I see differently.

1. You were totally against trading Bieber and now his performance is subpar and his value has cratered. He will not win a playoff game if he continues to pitch as he has this season. Obviously his innings would have needed to be covered, but trading him while he had a much higher value could have easily netted us another SP to cover those innings and nobody could have foreseen all of Quantrill, Civale, McKenzie and Battenfield having extended stays on the IL.

2. You were against the idea of trading Rosario. His OPS is .673 and his defense is horrendous. We would have been better off playing Freeman at 2B and Gimenez at SS at the very least.

3. You are pointing out some of the things you thought would happen and that's fine, but you're failing to mention the things that didn't happen. That matters when comparing your thoughts to others.

4. You know that I was one of the first to call for OGon last season and if I recall correctly you were not in agreement, but I could be wrong about that. Regardless, there is more needed than getting OGon back. I specifically recall you posting that we needed not one, but 2 RHH bats at one point this season and I wholeheartedly agree with that.

5. I'm not sold on the innings limits you have set on Williams, Bibee and Allen. You could be right, but there is a lot of work behind the scenes and just adding up last season's IP isn't a real good indicator. I wouldn't even begin to speculate what their limits might be, but I think it's a little more than you suspect. Admittedly I could be mistaken or I might be right. We'll see. I also think that we could see guys like Curry and Morris piggy back with a couple of our young starters. I haven't ruled out Cantillo doing the same, but I doubt they can cut into the BP that deep. I'd have to sit down and dig into it a bit.

6. Nobody could have predicted the Twins offense struggling like it has. However, I did predict that their pitching staff would be much improved and it obviously has been. Imagine had Mahle stayed healthy for them.

7. In all of this conversation, there is one factor that hasn't been mentioned by you and that's Gimenez's regression, and it's very significant. His OPS is .709 which is a contributing factor to our offensive woes.

So in the end, I'm not sure you can toot your horn too loudly. What I see as objectively as possible is a team that is trying to assemble as much young talent as possible to make a sustained run at a WS. They are doing that within their means and if that historically carries any weight then you'll know that adding guys like Reynolds, Murphy and Olson was not ever really in the cards unless they could get them at their price. They were never going to enter a bidding war and we shouldn't be surprised that those 3 ended up elsewhere. Especially while trying to extend JRam.

I'm hoping this response is a bit more tempered than I usually am with CATS. He's getting lambasted around here and I want to back off of that and converse with fewer personal attacks in the hopes for better conversations.

 

[Gson]

I don't desire another light hitter, but damned if the kid isn't making a case for himself. His OPS is .752 which is better than Kwan, Brennan, Straw and Rosario.

Have I ever mention how much I dislike this team's lineup construction?

just some rumors and hints.. nothing that you can stick a fork in...

 

[CDAV45]

Dear other team's FOs:

We are looking to trade Shane Bieber. Please ignore what he's done so far this year and give us a haul!

(I think Bieber is staying put this year if only because nobody will give us back much)

I hate the realization and possible accuracy of your post KS.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

We don't have a single OFer with an OPS at or above .700. That's pathetic and no amount of defense can make up for that.

Rosario has an OPS of .673 so he's part of the problem too, and he doesn't have the defense as an excuse to justify it.

I fell asleep watching the game because I had to work tonight and I'm not disappointed that I did. I cannot express the aggravation I have because they chose not to trade Bieber last offseason. If you couldn't see this coming then I'm not sure what to say. Now, we're left with a skeleton of the one time ace that will provide a significant amount of reduced value to this team regardless if they trade him or decide to let him walk. If I were shopping for a SP for this season I'd ask about Civale before I showed any interest in Bieber. DAMNIT!

People keep saying “might as well keep Bieber at this point” but honestly why?

Does anyone feel good about throwing him out there in a potential playoff series? I sure dont. The main problem is Bieber is still treated as our ace so get ready to see him game 1 of the wildcard series if we make it since the only spot we have any chance at is the 3 seed

Bieber against the Astros, blue jays, Red Sox, or Yankees round 1 would be most likely. Talk about being behind the 8 ball with home field advantage. I’d rather take my chances with Bibee if Sticks still isn’t healthy

 

[DerekG123]

People keep saying “might as well keep Bieber at this point” but honestly why?

Does anyone feel good about throwing him out there in a potential playoff series? I sure dont. The main problem is Bieber is still treated as our ace so get ready to see him game 1 of the wildcard series if we make it since the only spot we have any chance at is the 3 seed

Bieber against the Astros, blue jays, Red Sox, or Yankees round 1 would be most likely. Talk about being behind the 8 ball with home field advantage. I’d rather take my chances with Bibee if Sticks still isn’t healthy

Exactly. They're gonna match him up with Cole or Framber or Gausmann and thats just two games where we are going lose the starting pitching battle at this point.

 

[CDAV45]

People keep saying “might as well keep Bieber at this point” but honestly why?

Does anyone feel good about throwing him out there in a potential playoff series? I sure dont. The main problem is Bieber is still treated as our ace so get ready to see him game 1 of the wildcard series if we make it since the only spot we have any chance at is the 3 seed

Bieber against the Astros, blue jays, Red Sox, or Yankees round 1 would be most likely. Talk about being behind the 8 ball with home field advantage. I’d rather take my chances with Bibee if Sticks still isn’t healthy

I know why, but I don't agree with it. They have high hopes for this season, but keeping him hurts this team going forward and that is where I think our real chances are.

No, I don't feel good about Bieber at all and knowing that his value has been severely degraded is a kick in the bag. I cannot express how frustrated I am that he wasn't dealt prior to the season. I have no other description other than dumb.

Another frustrating thing for me is that the clarity of where this team actually is has been muddied by the shitty division for which they play in.

 

[KluberSociety]

People keep saying “might as well keep Bieber at this point” but honestly why?

Does anyone feel good about throwing him out there in a potential playoff series? I sure dont. The main problem is Bieber is still treated as our ace so get ready to see him game 1 of the wildcard series if we make it since the only spot we have any chance at is the 3 seed

Bieber against the Astros, blue jays, Red Sox, or Yankees round 1 would be most likely. Talk about being behind the 8 ball with home field advantage. I’d rather take my chances with Bibee if Sticks still isn’t healthy

Honestly Bieber's value at this point is more for the regular season than anything. You take him out you're looking at more innings from guys who probably shouldn't be pitching. And then if Civale is out where are you left? And then consider how much mileage we want to put on our young arms this year.

Someone has to carry the burden, and if Bieber isn't seen as a playoff pitcher for us he sure as hell isn't for other actual contenders and thus his trade value will be abysmal. I do think he's a playoff pitcher for us and an improvement over other options but maybe not extreme. Still that means he might actually have more value to us than to other teams.

We can always trade Bieber and some others away and get another pitcher back, but given how hard it might end up being to shop Bieber it might just end up making a lot more sense to use him for that same role.

 

[petes999]

I find it interesting that we are 45-45, therefore, 72 games left and thus 14 times through rotation with 2 guys getting 15. Who is our 2nd starter out of the break? Williams. Why is this interesting? He is getting 6 solid inning per start so far and is the last one to become a starter (21 draft year). Here is the inning counter to date (limiting rookies to 14 starts and 6 innings). Allen is getting 5 innings per start but is also burning through a lot of pitches per inning. Without McK, this team isn't set up for long playoff run whether we have Bieber or not. Trading Bieber has nothing to do with innings for the other 4 starters. Battenfield could come up and piggy-back with Curry. But, even then, it doesn't save too much in comparison - as it is usually only 1 pitcher - your 8th guy doing all the extra work and it is what save 3 inning on starter -- once through the rotation of 14 times -- for 3 rookie starters ... maybe 15-25 innings for each starter??? Then come playoffs what do you do as you were so concerned about innings? If just WC series ... okay. But, WS, you need another 4-6 starts.

You either ride with your rookies -- Williams, Bibee and Allen (will be the callup for Quant) or you don't. If you trade Bieber, Allen or Battenfield will replace him (and not cost -- add to -- innings on the rookies). If they were that concerned about innings, Bieber would be tagged for start on Friday or Saturday for that 15th start to get to 72 (if no rainouts) vs Williams as that is 6-7 innings right off the top. Or, at least put Bibee ahead of Williams as he started most of college (7 of 19 games as Freshman).

	PY High	Minors	Majors	Rotation	Innings	Total	Increase
Bieber	214​	0​	117​	14​	7​	215​
Civale	164​	11​	52​	14​	7​	161​
Quantrill	186​	5​	67​	14​	7​	170​
Bibee	132​	15​	70​	14​	6​	169​	128%​
Allen	132​	20​	62​	14​	6​	166​	126%​
Williams	115​	60​	24​	14​	6​	168​	146%​

 

[Gson]

While Bieber hasn't been a 100 % lock down ace, there have been those outings:

Seattle: 6 shut out innings..
New York Yankees: 7 IP, 2 runs
New York Yankees: 8 IP, 2 runs
Detroit Tigers: 7 shut out innings
New York Mets: 8 IP, 2 runs
St. Louis Cardians: 7 IP 2 runs
Houston Astros: 7 shut out innings
Kansas City Royals: 6 shut out innings

There are three "poor" outings to balance these eight stellar outings.
Make no mistake.. Bieber can still get the job done.. MLB teams know it as well..

 

[33Y0]

While Bieber hasn't been a 100 % lock down ace, there have been those outings:

Seattle: 6 shut out innings..
New York Yankees: 7 IP, 2 runs
New York Yankees: 8 IP, 2 runs
Detroit Tigers: 7 shut out innings
New York Mets: 8 IP, 2 runs
St. Louis Cardians: 7 IP 2 runs
Houston Astros: 7 shut out innings
Kansas City Royals: 6 shut out innings

There are three "poor" outings to balance these eight stellar outings.
Make no mistake.. Bieber can still get the job done.. MLB teams know it as well..

I don't think anyone is saying he's a bum... the argument is that he's not an ace anymore.

His ERA is 3.77 and xERA is 4.92. His FIP is 4.12 and xFIP is 4.05. All of that is VERY average. His fastball velocity is in the 7th percentile in MLB, his curveball spin is 16th percentile, his K% is in the 26th percentile... nothing screams ace about him anymore.

 

[KluberSociety]

I find it interesting that we are 45-45, therefore, 72 games left and thus 14 times through rotation with 2 guys getting 15. Who is our 2nd starter out of the break? Williams. Why is this interesting? He is getting 6 solid inning per start so far and is the last one to become a starter (21 draft year). Here is the inning counter to date (limiting rookies to 14 starts and 6 innings). Allen is getting 5 innings per start but is also burning through a lot of pitches per inning. Without McK, this team isn't set up for long playoff run whether we have Bieber or not. Trading Bieber has nothing to do with innings for the other 4 starters. Battenfield could come up and piggy-back with Curry. But, even then, it doesn't save too much in comparison - as it is usually only 1 pitcher - your 8th guy doing all the extra work and it is what save 3 inning on starter -- once through the rotation of 14 times -- for 3 rookie starters ... maybe 15-25 innings for each starter??? Then come playoffs what do you do as you were so concerned about innings? If just WC series ... okay. But, WS, you need another 4-6 starts.

You either ride with your rookies -- Williams, Bibee and Allen (will be the callup for Quant) or you don't. If you trade Bieber, Allen or Battenfield will replace him (and not cost -- add to -- innings on the rookies). If they were that concerned about innings, Bieber would be tagged for start on Friday or Saturday for that 15th start to get to 72 (if no rainouts) vs Williams as that is 6-7 innings right off the top. Or, at least put Bibee ahead of Williams as he started most of college (7 of 19 games as Freshman).

	PY High	Minors	Majors	Rotation	Innings	Total	Increase
Bieber	214​	0​	117​	14​	7​	215​
Civale	164​	11​	52​	14​	7​	161​
Quantrill	186​	5​	67​	14​	7​	170​
Bibee	132​	15​	70​	14​	6​	169​	128%​
Allen	132​	20​	62​	14​	6​	166​	126%​
Williams	115​	60​	24​	14​	6​	168​	146%​

Take away Bieber and you only have 5 "MLB caliber" pitchers (including Allen), 2 of which have bounced around the IL including one who has been pretty terrible so far. So yeah then you're looking at guys like Battenfield and Curry as you mentioned who are a terrible downgrade over Bieber. This rotation is stretching it thin WITH Bieber, let alone without him.

We can think of how much we want the 3 kids to be pitching but if you're already waving the white flag in the playoffs, then why would you even want to "ride with the rookies"? and get them to those IP counts, particularly someone like Williams? And Williams threw 5.1 IP/start in AAA with a BB/9 of 4.1 so expecting him to provide the volume going forward seems extremely unrealistic.

Without Bieber, there is no room for basically anything wrong to happen, teetering on a tightrope. With Bieber we can still end up with Battenfield, et al. If you are trading someone like Bieber and not adding MLB pitching at the same time you're better off just getting prospects because you're already waving the white flag.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

W

While Bieber hasn't been a 100 % lock down ace, there have been those outings:

Seattle: 6 shut out innings..
New York Yankees: 7 IP, 2 runs
New York Yankees: 8 IP, 2 runs
Detroit Tigers: 7 shut out innings
New York Mets: 8 IP, 2 runs
St. Louis Cardians: 7 IP 2 runs
Houston Astros: 7 shut out innings
Kansas City Royals: 6 shut out innings

There are three "poor" outings to balance these eight stellar outings.
Make no mistake.. Bieber can still get the job done.. MLB teams know it as well..

where are you getting only 3 poor outings?

Whitesox, orioles, and Braves are pretty undebatable bad outings

I’d also throw in the diamondbacks and the recent royals performance

Brewers performance also isn’t exactly what you’re looking for as an ace but I wouldn’t outright call it poor

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

I don't think anyone is saying he's a bum... the argument is that he's not an ace anymore.

His ERA is 3.77 and xERA is 4.92. His FIP is 4.12 and xFIP is 4.05. All of that is VERY average. His fastball velocity is in the 7th percentile in MLB, his curveball spin is 16th percentile, his K% is in the 26th percentile... nothing screams ace about him anymore.

I called him a mid to low tier 2nd starter which should place him around the 45th to 60th best starter in the mlb. I think that’s a fair shake of where he currently falls

 

[33Y0]

I called him a mid to low tier 2nd starter which should place him around the 45th to 60th best starter in the mlb. I think that’s a fair shake of where he currently falls

Yep and I'd completely agree with that. Based on his current xFIP, it ranks him 38th in MLB - darn close to that 45 range.

 

[Gson]

I don't think anyone is saying he's a bum... the argument is that he's not an ace anymore.

His ERA is 3.77 and xERA is 4.92. His FIP is 4.12 and xFIP is 4.05. All of that is VERY average. His fastball velocity is in the 7th percentile in MLB, his curveball spin is 16th percentile, his K% is in the 26th percentile... nothing screams ace about him anymore.

He isn't an ace... he isn't a lot of things.. but.. there are numerous moments....