2023 Season | Series #29 | Royals @ Guardians | July 6-9, 2023

[KluberSociety]

I understand that KS, but Curry is all of 24 as well. Pitching to contact and limiting damage is a common theme with this pitching staff. That's what allows all of Bieber, Civale and Quantrill to be effective and log innings. I also believe that the long relief roll that Curry is in is one of the most difficult because it can be very inconsistent and unpredictable. There is no routine to it. I readily admit that he could fall flat on his face as a SP, but if depth is needed he should be given an opportunity IMO.

Pitching to contact does not allow for effectiveness, but it does in some ways allow more innings to be logged, while in other ways not so much. For instance, look at Bieber:

Season	K/9	IP/G
2018​	9.26​	5.73​
2019​	10.88​	6.30​
2020​	14.2​	6.44​
2021​	12.48​	6.04​
2022​	8.91​	6.45​
2023​	7.31​	6.16​

His IP/G has remained mostly constant and his IP/G was actually near the highest at his peak K/9. This year his K/9 is at its lowest but he's not giving us much distance.

Pitching to contact, generally, is the result of not being able to miss bats. It's a weakness way more than it is a strength.

There are some pitchers like Quantrill who have been able to been fairly effective without missing many bats and thus fit well in the BOR as innings eaters. But if they added the ability to miss bats, then they could move up to being FOR starters.

Curry isn't even missing bats in conditions which are favorable to him (generally only facing hitters once). We can debate if he's like a 2 or 3 pitch pitcher, but honestly he only has one effective pitch. His other pitches mainly really serve to set up the fastball in his current state, and his FB isn't particularly explosive either. It's got a nice shape (straight up) but not so much on the velo end.

About velo, another thing that doesn't help is that when he was starting games in 2022, he lost tons of velo as the game went on. So even his FB loses its punch:

Player Card: Xzavion Curry

 

[CDAV45]

Pitching to contact does not allow for effectiveness, but it does in some ways allow more innings to be logged, while in other ways not so much. For instance, look at Bieber:

Season	K/9	IP/G
2018​	9.26​	5.73​
2019​	10.88​	6.30​
2020​	14.2​	6.44​
2021​	12.48​	6.04​
2022​	8.91​	6.45​
2023​	7.31​	6.16​

His IP/G has remained mostly constant and his IP/G was actually near the highest at his peak K/9. This year his K/9 is at its lowest but he's not giving us much distance.

Pitching to contact, generally, is the result of not being able to miss bats. It's a weakness way more than it is a strength.

There are some pitchers like Quantrill who have been able to been fairly effective without missing many bats and thus fit well in the BOR as innings eaters. But if they added the ability to miss bats, then they could move up to being FOR starters.

Curry isn't even missing bats in conditions which are favorable to him (generally only facing hitters once). We can debate if he's like a 2 or 3 pitch pitcher, but honestly he only has one effective pitch. His other pitches mainly really serve to set up the fastball in his current state, and his FB isn't particularly explosive either. It's got a nice shape (straight up) but not so much on the velo end.

About velo, another thing that doesn't help is that when he was starting games in 2022, he lost tons of velo as the game went on. So even his FB loses its punch:

Player Card: Xzavion Curry

You're trying to draw a conclusion on Curry before his story is even written. He's 24 yrs old. He's found some success in arguably the most difficult role of a pitching staff. There have been numerous SP that struggled and sent to a BP role that helped them reestablish themselves as starters again. Sometimes it's just a matter of maturation.

Your chart shows that the season with the most innings per start is the second lowest K/9 season. We're also talking about the first year of the balanced schedule too and that certainly has an effect on Bieber's results as he doesn't get to face the Tigers and Royals nearly as much. I'm gonna go ahead and suggest I wouldn't put too much stock in those 23 numbers just yet since the season is only half over.

 

[KluberSociety]

You're trying to draw a conclusion on Curry before his story is even written. He's 24 yrs old. He's found some success in arguably the most difficult role of a pitching staff. There have been numerous SP that struggled and sent to a BP role that helped them reestablish themselves as starters again. Sometimes it's just a matter of maturation.

Your chart shows that the season with the most innings per start is the second lowest K/9 season. We're also talking about the first year of the balanced schedule too and that certainly has an effect on Bieber's results as he doesn't get to face the Tigers and Royals nearly as much. I'm gonna go ahead and suggest I wouldn't put too much stock in those 23 numbers just yet since the season is only half over.

I'm not trying to draw a conclusion on Curry before the story is written. If he shows effectiveness in his secondary pitches, and starts missing bats more with them, then I think he can try out starting. But what I am doing is drawing a conclusion on where he is at NOW, and that his slider and curveball and changeup just aren't very good and you can see that pretty clearly in their terrible whiff rates. Even if he were to develop any of these pitches further, he STILL would have stamina concerns. So while it is not hopeless, a lot has to go right and change for him to be an effective starter, which is why you can say he is some distance away from that as a 24 year old.

If you want to talk about what he'll be like when he's 26 and try to guess on that you can go for that, but the context of the discussion was talking about replacing current pieces very soon, and he simply does not represent a viable replacement in his current state. It doesn't make sense to throw someone into the fire who currently lacks the tools to deal with it.

 

[CDAV45]

I'm not trying to draw a conclusion on Curry before the story is written. If he shows effectiveness in his secondary pitches, and starts missing bats more with them, then I think he can try out starting. But what I am doing is drawing a conclusion on where he is at NOW, and that his slider and curveball and changeup just aren't very good and you can see that pretty clearly in their terrible whiff rates. Even if he were to develop any of these pitches further, he STILL would have stamina concerns. So while it is not hopeless, a lot has to go right and change for him to be an effective starter, which is why you can say he is some distance away from that as a 24 year old.

If you want to talk about what he'll be like when he's 26 and try to guess on that you can go for that, but the context of the discussion was talking about replacing current pieces very soon, and he simply does not represent a viable replacement in his current state. It doesn't make sense to throw someone into the fire who currently lacks the tools to deal with it.

OK, so then use Curry for 3-4 innings to start games with a PB partner. If he cruises through the lineup past that then that would be found money. Keep a close eye on him after 3-4 innings with the hook ready. I'd suggest getting Burns up to to partner with Curry. One of them on any given day could go deeper than expected. Maybe the brass feels like one of Battenfield, Morris or Cantillo would be the better option. I'm cool with that too. I think they have enough depth without even considering SP additions. For S&G's let's pretend they trade both Bieber and Civale. That would leave Bibee, Williams, Allen, Quantrill, and another spot or 2 filled by a combination of Curry, Morris, Battenfield, Cantillo, Burns, Gaddis and Vallimont off the top of my head. We would also be hoping that McKenzie returns in September. I'm just guessing, but I'd say there would be at least 2 ready SP in the returns for Bieber and Civale. Otherwise I'm not dealing them both.

I'm just using these ideas as examples so don't focus too much on the actual players I mention. Let's say that Bieber is dealt to the Dodgers for one of Pepiot/Sheehan, Nastrini and Vargas. Then Civale is dealt to the Cardinals for one of Liberatore/Graceffo and Yepez. Pepiot, Sheehan and Liberatore are already pitching in the ML. Nastrini and Graceffo are damn close to being ready if they aren't already. If it were me(and clearly it's not) I'd look to use Kwan to get a good, established ML SP back. Would the Mnarlins be interested in Kwan and Allen for Alcantara? Maybe we could use Kwan to get Luzardo and De La Cruz? Point being, my thoughts aren't only dealing SP, but acquiring it too. My overall goal is to put as much talent on the field as early as this season and let it ferment into a dynasty.

 

[Gson]

The narrative that there aren't enough guys to cover the innings is fallacy.. the quality of those covered inning could be questionable, but, what isn't????

 

[KluberSociety]

OK, so then use Curry for 3-4 innings to start games with a PB partner. If he cruises through the lineup past that then that would be found money. Keep a close eye on him after 3-4 innings with the hook ready. I'd suggest getting Burns up to to partner with Curry. One of them on any given day could go deeper than expected. Maybe the brass feels like one of Battenfield, Morris or Cantillo would be the better option. I'm cool with that too. I think they have enough depth without even considering SP additions. For S&G's let's pretend they trade both Bieber and Civale. That would leave Bibee, Williams, Allen, Quantrill, and another spot or 2 filled by a combination of Curry, Morris, Battenfield, Cantillo, Burns, Gaddis and Vallimont off the top of my head. We would also be hoping that McKenzie returns in September. I'm just guessing, but I'd say there would be at least 2 ready SP in the returns for Bieber and Civale. Otherwise I'm not dealing them both.

I'm just using these ideas as examples so don't focus too much on the actual players I mention. Let's say that Bieber is dealt to the Dodgers for one of Pepiot/Sheehan, Nastrini and Vargas. Then Civale is dealt to the Cardinals for one of Liberatore/Graceffo and Yepez. Pepiot, Sheehan and Liberatore are already pitching in the ML. Nastrini and Graceffo are damn close to being ready if they aren't already. If it were me(and clearly it's not) I'd look to use Kwan to get a good, established ML SP back. Would the Mnarlins be interested in Kwan and Allen for Alcantara? Maybe we could use Kwan to get Luzardo and De La Cruz? Point being, my thoughts aren't only dealing SP, but acquiring it too. My overall goal is to put as much talent on the field as early as this season and let it ferment into a dynasty.

Don't focus too much on the actual players? You can throw 100 names at the wall, but until any of them actually show the ability to perform, they are just that - names, projects.

Right now that's all we have, a laundry list of names and projects. Elevating their role isn't going to magically elevate their play.

 

[CDAV45]

Don't focus too much on the actual players? You can throw 100 names at the wall, but until any of them actually show the ability to perform, they are just that - names, projects.

Right now that's all we have, a laundry list of names and projects. Elevating their role isn't going to magically elevate their play.

I don't care about names, I care about talent. You cannot perform at a high level without it. Teams lacking it don't compete. Elevating the roles of talented players can absolutely elevate their play. I find it difficult to believe that a Guardian fan could think that way since many of their best players were never nationally ranked. When I mention a name it isn't random. I either see some talent, witnessed some good performance or both.

We're one of the youngest teams in all of MLB so naturally we have a laundry list of names and projects. Elevating their roles is the only way to find out who can stick and who isn't going to cut it.

 

[CDAV45]

The narrative that there aren't enough guys to cover the innings is fallacy.. the quality of those covered inning could be questionable, but, what isn't????

Precisely!

 

[KluberSociety]

I don't care about names, I care about talent. You cannot perform at a high level without it. Teams lacking it don't compete. Elevating the roles of talented players can absolutely elevate their play. I find it difficult to believe that a Guardian fan could think that way since many of their best players were never nationally ranked. When I mention a name it isn't random. I either see some talent, witnessed some good performance or both.

We're one of the youngest teams in all of MLB so naturally we have a laundry list of names and projects. Elevating their roles is the only way to find out who can stick and who isn't going to cut it.

I think we have different assessments of talent.

If someone talented is ready to perform, they will show indicators of that performance, whether through increased velocity, increased control, or just statistics that show their pitches lead to quality results that would make them passable MLB starters.

I look at your ENTIRE LIST. I can not find one name I would feel good about entering the rotation. Multiple red flags for all of them. With someone like Cantillo I see potential but it also just doesn't seem like he's there yet.

 

[CDAV45]

I think we have different assessments of talent.

If someone talented is ready to perform, they will show indicators of that performance, whether through increased velocity, increased control, or just statistics that show their pitches lead to quality results that would make them passable MLB starters.

I look at your ENTIRE LIST. I can not find one name I would feel good about entering the rotation. Multiple red flags for all of them. With someone like Cantillo I see potential but it also just doesn't seem like he's there yet.

There's a lot being left on the table here and it's all in the name of development. Kinda like declaring someone can only pitch a certain number of innings based on affiliated ball IP in the prior season.

Having different opinions doesn't bother me at all. Makes for good conversation so we'll see what happens.

 

[KluberSociety]

There's a lot being left on the table here and it's all in the name of development. Kinda like declaring someone can only pitch a certain number of innings based on affiliated ball IP in the prior season.

Having different opinions doesn't bother me at all. Makes for good conversation so we'll see what happens.

I supported Allen, Bibee, and Williams getting rushed up and for that matter Freeman getting playing time now over Rosario, but that's because they showed enough evidence of being good... You can't really say there is much left to fill in spaces. The talent has been mostly depleted and hasn't really replenished yet by anyone emerging.

 

[Gson]

I supported Allen, Bibee, and Williams getting rushed up and for that matter Freeman getting playing time now over Rosario, but that's because they showed enough evidence of being good... You can't really say there is much left to fill in spaces. The talent has been mostly depleted and hasn't really replenished yet by anyone emerging.

Disagree with this...

I'm sure you'll support Morris and Cantillo when they're returned to the starting rotation and when he's brought up, respectively.......

 

[KluberSociety]

Disagree with this...

I'm sure you'll support Morris and Cantillo when they're returned to the starting rotation and when he's brought up, respectively.......

Morris just hasn't been very good so far. Cantillo doesn't seem ready.

If/when could be a year or two away, it could be never.

 

[sportscoach]

Morris just hasn't been very good so far. Cantillo doesn't seem ready.

If/when could be a year or two away, it could be never.

Neither Morris nor Cantillo will be starting in Cleveland this year really...

 

[Gson]

Morris just hasn't been very good so far. Cantillo doesn't seem ready.

If/when could be a year or two away, it could be never.

or it could be at the end of July.. perhaps at the end of July, 2024...