2019 NBA Draft Lottery

[NMCav]

The funny thing is I really see Demar DeRozan in Culver as a 110% top ceiling and that's why I question even picking him at #5. I think Culver hitting 80% of his ceiling is him being Evan Turner. The questions the Spurs now have with DeRozan and if they should just move him, makes me question picking Culver even more. I will have to watch Barrett highlights more to see if I see the DeRozan comparison you see.

Honestly despite being older then Barrett and Culver I feel DeAndre Hunter has a higher floor then both which is obvious. But I am also trending to believe he has higher upside then both. Barrett demeanor wise reminds me of Andrew Wiggins. I just don't think he cares about basketball. He doesn't have that passion for the game. And with Culver I am still trying to judge him. He showed as a Freshmen he could shoot at a consistent rate from deep. Then when he was thrust into the number 1 option role he became less efficient but showed he could create some for others when he has too. Barrett is honestly my least favorite of the three. I just don't see it with Barrett.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Barrett's doesn't have passion for the game??
He has other issues, but this ain't it.

 

[Green Lantern]

Just be patient. You’ll see.

You have some inside knowledge or guessing?

 

[rastamon87]

Aspirant teams might be really aggressive nkw that there are lota of uncertainties in Golden State... This is their window of opportunity... Hopefully that helps a lot in getting better trade values for JR and other expiring contracts

 

[Mr. Orange]

The 2019-2020 NBA season is officially underway and it's wide fucking open. Probably the most since 2015. Warriors dead. KD won't be playing next year for an East team. A team like Miami will pounce on the JR contract to clear cap space. Pat Riley is actually pretty fucking stupid.

 

[dark2332]

You have some inside knowledge or guessing?

We'll call it an educated guess.

There are plenty of dots to be connected here.

I'm personally thinking much of this depends on draft night and how the board shakes out for what the Cavs decide to do. I don't mean that to say JR won't get traded. He will with certainty prior to the deadline to waive him. After all, he was sent home and his contract was held to trade; Koby has long recognized its worth. On top of that, Dan Gilbert already gave his blessing to take on the money knowing that we have a plethora of space opening up next offseason. We will no longer be in the tax at that point, even if we can't maneuver out of it by the end of this upcoming season.

Breathe easy that it will certainly be dealt for an asset.

The reason it's unlikely to happen prior to the day of the draft is purely based on the board and the activity of the teams you're talking to.

The Cavs are at #5 and #26 currently.

Based on who is falling and who's currently calling, it could determine if they want a late lottery/teens pick in this current draft, a pick as part of a transaction to move up, or a future 1st that they can hold on to.

As a hypothetical exercise, let's say we deal with someone like Miami prior to the draft and we end up with #5, #13, and #26.

Then, Atlanta gets desperate for Culver and offers #8 and #10 for #5 and #26. That could've been the deal you were waiting for all along (although I prefer taking Culver at #5). The issue could then be that swinging that deal with Atlanta gives you #8, #10, and #13.

Now, it sounds like a great problem, right? 3 late lottery guys?! However, in that case, the Cavaliers might not covet 3 guys in that range and want to put forth the guaranteed money and resources into developing 3 late lottery guys simultaneously. It presents a few problems that a team may not want to take on.

Thus, if they were going to move down with Atlanta, instead of flipping JR Smith for a current pick, they would likely rather get a valuable future 1st to afford themselves more flexibility. Add it to the rainy day fund. If they had waited until the hypothetical Atlanta deal to agree to terms with the Heat, they would've been able to do so.

None of this is to say that the Cavaliers are looking to trade down. Perhaps, they are even attempting to move up. However, the point still stands. You're sitting back, acquiring intel, and waiting to pounce at an appropriate opportunity.

The Cavs are in a good spot right now with the #5 pick, the #26, and JR's contract. Sometimes the best move is to hold tight for a moment, hear all offers, and wait for activity to pick up as the draft approaches. We likely haven't heard anyone's best offer for anything yet. Teams sometimes need deadlines, which the draft provides a natural catalyst. There's a high possibility that #4 isn't going to be Los Angeles' any longer and that spot could be open for business.

Koby has navigated a very complex trade deadline in the past. I have no doubts he's extremely prepared for every scenario--and we have the assets and flexibility to get exactly who we want where we want him.

 

[Ozone]

I am seeing disappointment coming. All this talk but little smoke is pretty telling.

best odds are if Cavs are not feeling it with Culver or Hunter or somebody else worthy of the 5th by others like Atlanta who could be desperate for 1 of those 2,Cavs trade down for 8 and 10 to get players they like more at this point in the process that are highly unlikely to be taken before then. This could easily be Bol,Sekou,KPorter,Herro,Little,Langford and Goga.
others like White,Reddish,Hayes are much more likely at 5-7 range with Zion,Ja,RJ and Garland taken.
I think Garland is the 4th pick on most teams boards unless somebody in win now mode with a solid backcourt already acquires the pick from LA in a 3 team deal with New Orleans where Hunter comes into the picture.
Hunter is a solid role player for a contender as an elite college defender whos skill on that end should transfer and he is a solid foundation piece for a team in rebuild mode, but nobody in the Cavs org should be picking bottom blocks at 5 if they are not potential cornerstones

 

[Ozone]

Honestly despite being older then Barrett and Culver I feel DeAndre Hunter has a higher floor then both which is obvious. But I am also trending to believe he has higher upside then both. Barrett demeanor wise reminds me of Andrew Wiggins. I just don't think he cares about basketball. He doesn't have that passion for the game. And with Culver I am still trying to judge him. He showed as a Freshmen he could shoot at a consistent rate from deep. Then when he was thrust into the number 1 option role he became less efficient but showed he could create some for others when he has too. Barrett is honestly my least favorite of the three. I just don't see it with Barrett.

Barrett is an alpha dog who's passion for the game is lightyears better than Wiggins, suggesting they are the same is a terrible take.
Culver also has a solid work ethic and is the front runner for the Cavs at 5 because he does still have upside, but don't expect him to be better long term than some of the higher upside options they could take if they put the work in.
Hunter has very little upside he will be 22 in December and his offensive skill level should be far more advanced at that age to justify taking 5th. He will get better obviously but unless this was the last year of a rebuild and all they needed was a high level defensive role player/starter/3rd option than he would make sense at 7 trading the 5 to Chicago for another asset from them so they cold jump past the Suns to get their pg.
I think taking Hunter at 5 is far less probable for the state of this roster unless you think this org is in the business of building a treadmill team

 

[rcj47]

What is Kevin Love's realistic value though? The Mavs gave up a top 3 protected pick to the Hawks to move up from #5 to #3. That resulted in the #10 pick this year. I'm not sure we could realistically get the #10 pick for Kevin Love or even a pick that was likely to convey in the lotto.

I do like what Klove does for the spacing of the team and how that will help develop our young guys. Im just not sure how much value other teams will have for Love. Griff might be one of the few GMs to give up proper value for Love.

The difference is that Dallas was getting Luka Doncic. I guess if the Cavs value Barrett as high as Doncic it would be worth it but I don't.

 

[rcj47]

Here’s the thing though. There are a number of teams, like Atlanta, Sacramento, Phoenix, Chicago, & possibly the Knicks that will soon have cap space, that are also willing to take on bad contracts, in exchange for an asset or two in return. That’s exactly what happened with the Brooklyn-Atlanta deal, which will go down on July 6th. Those teams can actually clear even more cap room as JR’s contract is partially guaranteed for something like $3.5 million. That could be suppressing JR’s market some.

I think ATL only did that deal in the hopes of gathering picks together to move up higher in the draft. How many 1st rounders to they have now? Probably too many as these are all guaranteed salaries and they have to develop them all.

 

[Ozone]

The difference is that Dallas was getting Luka Doncic. I guess if the Cavs value Barrett as high as Doncic it would be worth it but I don't.

I think they do value him that high and if NY was willing they would do it, but I do not think NY would trade down unless they were higher on reddish or somebody not worthy of #3.

 

[Ozone]

We'll call it an educated guess.

There are plenty of dots to be connected here.

I'm personally thinking much of this depends on draft night and how the board shakes out for what the Cavs decide to do. I don't mean that to say JR won't get traded. He will with certainty prior to the deadline to waive him. After all, he was sent home and his contract was held to trade; Koby has long recognized its worth. On top of that, Dan Gilbert already gave his blessing to take on the money knowing that we have a plethora of space opening up next offseason. We will no longer be in the tax at that point, even if we can't maneuver out of it by the end of this upcoming season.

Breathe easy that it will certainly be dealt for an asset.

The reason it's unlikely to happen prior to the day of the draft is purely based on the board and the activity of the teams you're talking to.

The Cavs are at #5 and #26 currently.

Based on who is falling and who's currently calling, it could determine if they want a late lottery/teens pick in this current draft, a pick as part of a transaction to move up, or a future 1st that they can hold on to.

As a hypothetical exercise, let's say we deal with someone like Miami prior to the draft and we end up with #5, #13, and #26.

Then, Atlanta gets desperate for Culver and offers #8 and #10 for #5 and #26. That could've been the deal you were waiting for all along (although I prefer taking Culver at #5). The issue could then be that swinging that deal with Atlanta gives you #8, #10, and #13.

Now, it sounds like a great problem, right? 3 late lottery guys?! However, in that case, the Cavaliers might not covet 3 guys in that range and want to put forth the guaranteed money and resources into developing 3 late lottery guys simultaneously. It presents a few problems that a team may not want to take on.

Thus, if they were going to move down with Atlanta, instead of flipping JR Smith for a current pick, they would likely rather get a valuable future 1st to afford themselves more flexibility. Add it to the rainy day fund. If they had waited until the hypothetical Atlanta deal to agree to terms with the Heat, they would've been able to do so.

None of this is to say that the Cavaliers are looking to trade down. Perhaps, they are even attempting to move up. However, the point still stands. You're sitting back, acquiring intel, and waiting to pounce at an appropriate opportunity.

The Cavs are in a good spot right now with the #5 pick, the #26, and JR's contract. Sometimes the best move is to hold tight for a moment, hear all offers, and wait for activity to pick up as the draft approaches. We likely haven't heard anyone's best offer for anything yet. Teams sometimes need deadlines, which the draft provides a natural catalyst. There's a high possibility that #4 isn't going to be Los Angeles' any longer and that spot could be open for business.

Koby has navigated a very complex trade deadline in the past. I have no doubts he's extremely prepared for every scenario--and we have the assets and flexibility to get exactly who we want where we want him.

Yeah and the chance to create fa cap space is drying up fast after the Nets/Hawks deal besides Smith's contract or if Sacramento or Chicago wanted to take on big $ to get a late lottery post lottery of mid-late first pick from sellers like Miami,Orlando,OKC,Portland etc
I like Cavs odds of Moving Smith for a future more than a pick this year, but I also think if a player they are high on falls to 13 or even 16 they will drop the hammer.

 

[Ozone]

The 2019-2020 NBA season is officially underway and it's wide fucking open. Probably the most since 2015. Warriors dead. KD won't be playing next year for an East team. A team like Miami will pounce on the JR contract to clear cap space. Pat Riley is actually pretty fucking stupid.

If somebody high on Cavs board falls taking back a bad deal from Miami for #13 is a legitimate possibility.
Odds are less one falls to 16 but Orlando is definitely shopping it and 1 yr of Mozgov for exactly the amount of relief Smith would provide so they can pursue DeAngelo Russell with Irving Brooklyn bound is also in the mix.

 

[Bulldog2Buckeye]

I think I’ve pretty much sold myself on Hunter or Culver. I just really want a wing with the capability to actually defend multiple positions, regardless of how good they’d become offensively. It gets tiring watching trash defense game in and game out for years on end.

 

[Ozone]

I think I’ve pretty much sold myself on Hunter or Culver. I just really want a wing with the capability to actually defend multiple positions, regardless of how good they’d become offensively. It gets tiring watching trash defense game in and game out for years on end.

Little, Sekou and Langford are more than capable athletic long defenders at a high level long term and have better offensive upsides than Hunter. Culver is closer to being that guy offensively already with solid defense but his first step and shot are not elite at all and never will be a all star caliber 1st option so to me they have to take the higher upside offensive player that has solid tools length and athleticism to become even better defensively at the same age as Hunter 21.5 and Culver 20.4