You have some inside knowledge or guessing?
We'll call it an educated guess.
There are plenty of dots to be connected here.
I'm personally thinking much of this depends on draft night and how the board shakes out for what the Cavs decide to do. I don't mean that to say JR won't get traded.
He will with certainty prior to the deadline to waive him. After all, he was sent home and his contract was held to trade; Koby has long recognized its worth. On top of that, Dan Gilbert already gave his blessing to take on the money knowing that we have a plethora of space opening up next offseason. We will no longer be in the tax at that point, even if we can't maneuver out of it by the end of this upcoming season.
Breathe easy that it will certainly be dealt for an asset.
The reason it's unlikely to happen prior to the day of the draft is purely based on the board and the activity of the teams you're talking to.
The Cavs are at #5 and #26 currently.
Based on who is falling and who's currently calling, it could determine if they want a late lottery/teens pick in this current draft, a pick as part of a transaction to move up, or a future 1st that they can hold on to.
As a hypothetical exercise, let's say we deal with someone like Miami prior to the draft and we end up with #5, #13, and #26.
Then, Atlanta gets desperate for Culver and offers #8 and #10 for #5 and #26. That could've been the deal you were waiting for all along (although I prefer taking Culver at #5). The issue could then be that swinging that deal with Atlanta gives you #8, #10, and #13.
Now, it sounds like a great problem, right? 3 late lottery guys?! However, in that case, the Cavaliers might not covet 3 guys in that range and want to put forth the guaranteed money and resources into developing 3 late lottery guys simultaneously. It presents a few problems that a team may not want to take on.
Thus, if they were going to move down with Atlanta, instead of flipping JR Smith for a current pick, they would likely rather get a valuable future 1st to afford themselves more flexibility. Add it to the rainy day fund. If they had waited until the hypothetical Atlanta deal to agree to terms with the Heat, they would've been able to do so.
None of this is to say that the Cavaliers are looking to trade down. Perhaps, they are even attempting to move up. However, the point still stands. You're sitting back, acquiring intel, and waiting to pounce at an appropriate opportunity.
The Cavs are in a good spot right now with the #5 pick, the #26, and JR's contract. Sometimes the best move is to hold tight for a moment, hear all offers, and wait for activity to pick up as the draft approaches. We likely haven't heard anyone's best offer for anything yet. Teams sometimes need deadlines, which the draft provides a natural catalyst. There's a high possibility that #4 isn't going to be Los Angeles' any longer and that spot could be open for business.
Koby has navigated a very complex trade deadline in the past. I have no doubts he's extremely prepared for every scenario--and we have the assets and flexibility to get exactly who we want where we want him.