Assessing the Cavs at the halfway point what jumps out is how different things are at this point from what we expected. Here’s what I did NOT expect:
- Kevin Love would only play 2 games
- Kevin Porter Jr would not play at all and would be traded
- Andre Drummond would play 25 games and would be sent home to wait for a trade
- Larry Nance Jr would play 19 of 36 games due to injury
- The Cavs would be fourth in the league in player-games missed to injury
- The Cavs would obtain Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince in exchange for Dante Exum and a second round pick.
Going into the season I expected Drummond and Love would be starting every game, unless injured, and Nance and Porter would be getting at least 25 minutes a game.
I would say the most signficant development of the first half is the acquisition of Allen, who will be their starting center of the future assuming they are able to sign him to a long term contract.
The biggest disappointment without question is the implosion of KPJ, who was seen as one of the franchise’s building blocks and a potential star.
Positive developments include the improved play of Sexton and Garland over last season, the recent surge by Dean Wade, and the play of Jarrett Allen.
The performance of rookie top five pick Isaac Okoro is a matter of some debate. In terms of sheer numbers, Okoro is ranked 185 out of 186 qualified players in basketball-reference.com’s player efficiency ratings. In true shooting percentage Okoro ranks 183 of 197. And in total rebounding percentage he ranks 177 of 186. No question he is near the bottom of the league in both scoring and rebounding.
Okoro ranks 146 of 186 in assist percentage. He’s 159 of 186 in turnover percentage. Not only is he awful at putting the ball in the basket, he also loses it a lot and does not create scoring for other players. In Offensive Wins Shares he’s 472 out of 492. In Defensive Win Shares he’s a little above average.
In terms of Wins Shares per 48 minutes, Okoro ranks 178 out of 186. Darius Garland ranks 173, by the way. In VORP Okoro ranks 489 of 492.
The Cavs are 14-22, which equates to a 32-50 record over an 82-game season. According to powerrankingsguru.com, the Cavs have played the sixth toughest schedule so far. For the second half the Cavs have the 18th easiest schedule.
http://powerrankingsguru.com/nba/strength-of-schedule.php
The Cavs have lost 133 man-games to injury this year, which is the 4th highest in the league. But you also have to factor in the value of the players lost; a star player missing 10 games is very different than a guy averaging five minutes a game. In an effort to factor in player value Spotrac.com added up the salary lost to injuries (assuming higher salaries generally correspond to better players) and in this category the Cavs lead the league, thanks mainly to Kevin Love.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/injured-reserve/cumulative-team/
Obviously this figure does not count the games missed by Kevin Porter Jr, who was expected to be a key contributor.
Considering the Cavs had to play the sixth hardest schedule and lost the fourth most games to injury (including 34 games by their highest paid player and 17 games by Larry Nance, Jr) the fact that they are 14-22 is very, very encouraging in my opinion. Getting Love and Nance back combined with an easier schedule and the surprise emergence of Wade as a solid contributor should result in the Cavs winning a higher percentage in the second half.