I'm a little surprised that Carey isn't gaining more traction. He's not really the kind of prospect I gravitate toward, but he's a top-5 recruit putting up big numbers for an elite, high-profile Duke team. How is he not a consensus mid/high lottery guy in such a desolate draft?
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2020 NBA Draft
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I'm a little surprised that Carey isn't gaining more traction. He's not really the kind of prospect I gravitate toward, but he's a top-5 recruit putting up big numbers for an elite, high-profile Duke team. How is he not a consensus mid/high lottery guy in such a desolate draft?
I'mWithDan
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He is really brought down by 10 TO+PF per 100. That seems to be the concern with him (from what I see), is that he's not a great athlete.....and if he's having trouble defending without fouling and turning it over in college, it's only going to get worse in the NBA.
He's flagged as someone who needs to score at the NBA level to be valuable.....and he's currently shooting 59% from the FT line. Kind of a tough mix. He's still pretty efficient but he's a really high 2 point volume guy, kind of similar to Rui last year.
Carey should be in the conversation.....but he lags pretty far behind guys like Okongwu, Reed, Bey, etc. at this point.
I agree, but that's like an advanced stats argument. Advanced stats hated Ayton and Bagley defensively, but it didn't stop them from going 1/2, and that class had Doncic/JJJ/Young 3/4/5, all players who would be runaway #1 picks in this draft.
I'm just saying Carey's got a lot of qualities that usually guarantee a high draft slot for a big: volume scoring/rebounding numbers (nearly 40 points and 20 boards per 100 possessions), top recruit coming out of high school, playing for an elite high-profile team. With the possible exception of Isaiah Stewart, Carey's the only top-10 recruit who's produced up to expectations this season, but he somehow isn't reaping the rewards in draft stock.
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Obi Toppin is fun to follow. I don’t see the Amare comparisons people tried to make on twitter, but in a poor draft he sticks out as a guy that is unlikely to be a bust. Future starter potential on a good team. As bad as the top of the draft is, does anyone else feel he can sneak into the top 6 to 9 picks?
I'mWithDan
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Sort of......I agree that he does things well, and he is an above average prospect......I was just pointing out he falls short of the traditional lottery / top pick types. There's a big gap between Ayton / Bagley and Carey, since they were mentioned:
The interesting thing about overall impact is guys tend to be more likely to succeed if they have it.....and it doesn't typically matter what combination leads to it. Carey is just flagged as a potential bust candidate because of his adjusted number. It traditionally means he is one of two things......1. a more one dimensional player, as it is a metric less scoring impact. 2. he is doing something that is incredibly detrimental (like fouling and turning it over too often).....or some mix of both.
I think he's certainly worth drafting in the lottery but your assessment on him hinges on how he can mitigate his athletic disadvantage. Sabonis has been really successful with similar limitations, so maybe that gives Carey more of the benefit of the doubt. I certainly think he should be given more consideration than he has at this point, relative to the rest of the draft class.
I'mWithDan
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I think saying things like "As bad as the top of the draft is,...." is a disservice to Toppin. His metrics, through half a season, grade him out as a traditional top 5 like pick. Just in terms of versatility as a player and analytical impact.
If his numbers hold, he'll profile out in that upper 10% or so of everyone in my drafted database. His impact numbers land him in the tier with guys like Trae Young, Bagley, JJJ, in terms of recent drafts.
If he continues his first half and measures reasonably well, I'd be pretty shocked if he weren't a top 5-6 pick.
I'mWithDan
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Anyone have an opinion on Maxey? I just see that he has a lot of momentum. ESPN I think has him in their top 6-7 now.
I've said in the past, a majority of the stuff I calculate tends to have a bit of blind spot for athletic types.....it didn't love the Westbrooks, etc. of the world.....but Maxey it ESPECIALLY hates. He falls a full two tiers below guys like Fox and I really don't know what to make of it.
He just doesn't look like he does anything well analytically......is he just a talent bet? Something else? It's not just ESPN that likes him.....I've seen a few places I really respect as talent evaluators have the same opinion and I'm interested to hear thoughts.
I've said in the past, a majority of the stuff I calculate tends to have a bit of blind spot for athletic types.....it didn't love the Westbrooks, etc. of the world.....but Maxey it ESPECIALLY hates. He falls a full two tiers below guys like Fox and I really don't know what to make of it.
He just doesn't look like he does anything well analytically......is he just a talent bet? Something else? It's not just ESPN that likes him.....I've seen a few places I really respect as talent evaluators have the same opinion and I'm interested to hear thoughts.
Seems like a tweener guard who'll just get obliterated on defense at the next level...basically Sexton minus the scoring pop. Don't understand why he's a 1-and-done candidate, let alone a potential lottery guy.
I'mWithDan
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My mid way top 5, would be some order of Wiseman, Ball, Okongwu, Toppin, Edwards.
I admittedly don't like Edwards but it's honestly hard for me to even come up with a 5th guy I think could be drafted in the top 5. Maybe it is Avdija when all is said and done but I really haven't watched much of his film at this point.
I think this is a draft where guys in the late to fringe lottery could rise pretty significantly at the combine.....because picks 4-20 are so fluid. Nesmith and Perry seem like riser candidates based on their profile......and then there's a bunch of guys like Carey who are solid performers who should see their value rise as a lot of these projected lotto guys continue to stink.
Unrelated to anything but I forgot to mention Jaden McDaniels is on pace to out suck Cam Reddish on the wing. He is the one wing player, from what I see, that looks like a complete bust candidate. My stuff says he literally does nothing well......and yet is an aggregate mid lottery guy. I've talked about it previously but it truly is amazing how there is that giant lottery hole, where teams are always lulled in to potential in the 5-8 or so spots and continually draft guys who aren't good. McDaniels looks like another one of those guys through half a season.
My mid way top 5, would be some order of Wiseman, Ball, Okongwu, Toppin, Edwards.
I admittedly don't like Edwards but it's honestly hard for me to even come up with a 5th guy I think could be drafted in the top 5. Maybe it is Avdija when all is said and done but I really haven't watched much of his film at this point.
I think this is a draft where guys in the late to fringe lottery could rise pretty significantly at the combine.....because picks 4-20 are so fluid. Nesmith and Perry seem like riser candidates based on their profile......and then there's a bunch of guys like Carey who are solid performers who should see their value rise as a lot of these projected lotto guys continue to stink.
Maledon? Haliburton?
BankShot
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There's a lot to like, but I'm a bit afraid that he is a 6'9" center, and I've had enough of that here. He reminds me of a more fluid JJ Hickson, but I wonder about his motor. Hopefully, this is where Beilein's college connections come into play, maybe we end up with some insight about these prospects that others aren't getting.
Derek
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He's definitely a center, but the edge he has on Hickson is that he is averaging over twice as many blocks and is a legit rim protector
BankShot
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I hear ya, I was just hoping for more length with our next center, I'm looking forward to hearing more legit measurements for some of these prospects. But I still worry about his motor, the little I've watched of USC, I've noticed him drift aimlessly on a few occasions.
I'mWithDan
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Yes, shot blocking is more of an innate skill than it is an exercise in measuring players.
I think Okongwu will measure just fine and as you said, he has significantly better defensive markers than Hickson.
Per 40:
Hickson - 2.1 BLK, 1.0 STL, 2.7 PF, 1.2 BLK+STL/PF
Okongwu - 4.0 BLK, 1.3 STL, 3.3 PF, 1.6 BLK+STL/PF
So he's not only significantly more productive but he's also getting more out of each foul. All good signs. Okongwu is also a very good verticality player, altering many more shots as well, without fouling.
That's also ignoring mentality......Okongwu views it as his calling card and his effort and results show. I don't think Hickson ever wanted to play defense.