2020 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

But I still worry about his motor, the little I've watched of USC, I've noticed him drift aimlessly on a few occasions.

It's pretty hard to produce the defensive impact stats he does, without a motor.

The areas where motor shows up are typically BLK / STL / OREB.

On a per 100 basis, he's #1 in this class among lottery players (I don't have a complete top 100 list yet) at 14.4 hustle stats per 100 possessions.

That on its' own is impressive but what tends to separate Okongwu is he's significantly more productive on a per foul basis as well. So he produces an exceptionally high number of hustle stats, while not fouling himself off the floor.

If you dig in, I think what you see is him being good at picking his battles.....and it kind of looks like drifting but it is actually him understanding that he just can't challenge every shot, closeout, etc. He is really good about using his BBIQ to not recklessly do things on defense....so he can stay on the floor and provide impact over a longer period of time.

 

[BankShot]

It's pretty hard to produce the defensive impact stats he does, without a motor.

The areas where motor shows up are typically BLK / STL / OREB.

On a per 100 basis, he's #1 in this class among lottery players (I don't have a complete top 100 list yet) at 14.4 hustle stats per 100 possessions.

That on its' own is impressive but what tends to separate Okongwu is he's significantly more productive on a per foul basis as well. So he produces an exceptionally high number of hustle stats, while not fouling himself off the floor.

If you dig in, I think what you see is him being good at picking his battles.....and it kind of looks like drifting but it is actually him understanding that he just can't challenge every shot, closeout, etc. He is really good about using his BBIQ to not recklessly do things on defense....so he can stay on the floor and provide impact over a longer period of time.

I certainly appreciate your analytics, but I have to ask, have you watched multiple full USC games? Because I have now watched two and my concern about his motor came from direct observation.

He is really impressive in a number of ways, and I hope the Cavs are looking at him closely. Now, maybe I'm wrong about his lack of motor and that the bigger issue is that his drifting (on offense and defense) could be more of him not knowing where he needs to be on the floor, which would be less worrisome.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Putting age aside, Toppin trumps Okongwu in a lot of ways. Just way more dynamic.

 

[BankShot]

Putting age aside, Toppin trumps Okongwu in a lot of ways. Just way more dynamic.

I agree, I think Toppin would come close to matching Love's productivity from day one, but it's hard not to take age into consideration, I think it's almost a full 3 year difference.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I certainly appreciate your analytics, but I have to ask, have you watched multiple full USC games? Because I have now watched two and my concern about his motor came from direct observation.

He is really impressive in a number of ways, and I hope the Cavs are looking at him closely. Now, maybe I'm wrong about his lack of motor and that the bigger issue is that his drifting (on offense and defense) could be more of him not knowing where he needs to be on the floor, which would be less worrisome.

I haven't watched multiple USC games.......I don't know what that would tell me in all honesty. I'm admittedly not a film guy. I like watching basketball but for evaluation purposes, I think (just my personal opinion), that film matters more for guys who are in the analytical gray area.....where there's more nuance. When a guys' data is as good as Okongwu's is, I am just going to lean on that data mattering more than his possession by possession film. That is more of my prospect assessment approach, that just has a lot of supporting data behind it. When comparing possession based results, the data is surprisingly reliable in identifying the players who should be valued.

Okongwu is tracking to be in the top 5% of drafted prospects in the possession era (400+) in total hustle stats and hustle stats per player foul. Those types of players (Drummond, Steven Adams, Davis, Towns, Faried, TT, JJJ etc.) are a really successful prospect profile type. They succeed often as good, starting NBA players. In a draft like this one, I think Okongwu's profile is a valuable one.....because there is certainty, based on his data, that he is an NBA player. Which is a lot more than you can say for nearly everyone else in this class a this point.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Putting age aside, Toppin trumps Okongwu in a lot of ways. Just way more dynamic.

It's tough to pit guys who are just very different. Toppin profiles for well for me but his red flags are:

1. He's a really high volume 2 point scorer for a possibly undersized player
2. He doesn't draw fouls at a high level, combined with average FT%
3. He's merely an average rebounder and hustle stat guy for his position

Certainly scoring at volume is a skill that should be valued but you better be certain that translates, because his impact in other areas, just says he'll be a really average NBA contributor elsewhere. There just aren't really examples of bigs who ended up seeing NBA success in his hustle stat range (BLK+STL+OREB). He contributes in that area more like an NBA SG/PG prospect.

I still think he's one of the top guys in this draft but I am probably the most worried about him, among the guys who tend to score well in the metrics my data spits out. Just with how the game has evolved, can anyone think of an NBA big who has scoring impact who isn't a volume 3PT shooter or a plus FT generator?

 

[Muffinalt]

I haven't watched multiple USC games.......I don't know what that would tell me in all honesty. I'm admittedly not a film guy. I like watching basketball but for evaluation purposes, I think (just my personal opinion), that film matters more for guys who are in the analytical gray area.....where there's more nuance. When a guys' data is as good as Okongwu's is, I am just going to lean on that data mattering more than his possession by possession film. That is more of my prospect assessment approach, that just has a lot of supporting data behind it. When comparing possession based results, the data is surprisingly reliable in identifying the players who should be valued.

Okongwu is tracking to be in the top 5% of drafted prospects in the possession era (400+) in total hustle stats and hustle stats per player foul. Those types of players (Drummond, Steven Adams, Davis, Towns, Faried, TT, JJJ etc.) are a really successful prospect profile type. They succeed often as good, starting NBA players. In a draft like this one, I think Okongwu's profile is a valuable one.....because there is certainty, based on his data, that he is an NBA player. Which is a lot more than you can say for nearly everyone else in this class a this point.

Okongwu's case is going to be so interesting to me. Is his profile so promising because he's playing at a level below, or is that not much of a concern? Like how much of his rim protection is going to actually translate to the next level when he becomes undersized for his position, and starts playing against the elite athletes?

He looks great defending the rim for sure, and your statistical points make a very strong case, but some part of me is still sceptical. Could just be my bias against short rim protectors I don't know really.

 

[Cavatt]

Okongwu's case is going to be so interesting to me. Is his profile so promising because he's playing at a level below, or is that not much of a concern? Like how much of his rim protection is going to actually translate to the next level when he becomes undersized for his position, and starts playing against the elite athletes?

He looks great defending the rim for sure, and your statistical points make a very strong case, but some part of me is still sceptical. Could just be my bias against short rim protectors I don't know really.

Yeah TT was an elite shot blocker...

 

[BankShot]

Okongwu's case is going to be so interesting to me. Is his profile so promising because he's playing at a level below, or is that not much of a concern? Like how much of his rim protection is going to actually translate to the next level when he becomes undersized for his position, and starts playing against the elite athletes?

He looks great defending the rim for sure, and your statistical points make a very strong case, but some part of me is still sceptical. Could just be my bias agaiominst short rim protectors I don't know really.

That's my concern as well, I'm afraid he might be 6'8" without shoes.

 

[Muffinalt]

Yeah TT was an elite shot blocker...

Exactly why I'm so sceptical. TT blocking about 5 shots a year after his hype coming out scarred me for life.

I know it's about instincts first and foremost and we have cases like Biyombo but I just can't be sure how much of it translates with these shorter guys untill we actually see it.

 

[Cavatt]

Exactly why I'm so sceptical. TT blocking about 5 shots a year after his hype coming out scarred me for life.

I know it's about instincts first and foremost and we have cases like Biyombo but I just can't be sure how much of it translates with these shorter guys untill we actually see it.

Okwongu just doesn't look big to me. He might be Larry Nance

 

[Muffinalt]

Okwongu just doesn't look big to me. He might be Larry Nance

You mean size wise? Playstyle wise I don't really like that comparison, coz O can't really shoot or dribble and his passing is a clear weakness for now.

I think he plays almost exactly like TT. Some post scoring, but mostly an energy big. He's a better rim runner imo too, and has better shot blocking instincts, plus same potential on the perimeter.

Honestly sounds like a really good player, especially for todays game. Switchable rim protector that is a good rim runner too? Nice. But we are right back at just how much of that will translate? I think his rim running will be similarly curbed too, and so all of a sudden his two main attractive traits arent so attractive. I don't want another TT to develop honestly. I want someone with length.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Okongwu's case is going to be so interesting to me. Is his profile so promising because he's playing at a level below, or is that not much of a concern? Like how much of his rim protection is going to actually translate to the next level when he becomes undersized for his position, and starts playing against the elite athletes?

He looks great defending the rim for sure, and your statistical points make a very strong case, but some part of me is still sceptical. Could just be my bias against short rim protectors I don't know really.

Length tends to manifest more on offense. I think that is an area where there is concern.....if you are considering Okongwu in the top 5. He was really bothered by Washington's length when he was on the offensive end, one of the teams who has real NBA length / athletes. But he still rebounded well in that game.

There are plenty of guys in the NBA who can defend the rim without plus length....and I'm also not even sure Okongwu doesn't have average to slightly above average NBA length. Which would be fine. If you use player proxies in film, he looks noticeably bigger than guys listed in the 6'7-6'8" range. So I guess we'll see when he measures.

What is a level below? The basketball league? Pac-12? There's still NBA bigs in that league and it's a power 5 conference. Generally speaking, league affiliation doesn't mean much if it's a non mid major or lower school. Plenty of Pac-12 guys in the league.

I think Okongwu is a more coordinated, better rim defending version of TT (potentially). And that would be a good NBA player.

 

[Cavatt]

You mean size wise? Playstyle wise I don't really like that comparison, coz O can't really shoot or dribble and his passing is a clear weakness for now.

I think he plays almost exactly like TT. Some post scoring, but mostly an energy big. He's a better rim runner imo too, and has better shot blocking instincts, plus same potential on the perimeter.

Honestly sounds like a really good player, especially for todays game. Switchable rim protector that is a good rim runner too? Nice. But we are right back at just how much of that will translate? I think his rim running will be similarly curbed too, and so all of a sudden his two main attractive traits arent so attractive. I don't want another TT to develop honestly. I want someone with length.

I just meant size. Seems like 6'7" with extra long arms.

 

[BankShot]

Paul Reed continues to impress, his team is awful, but that hasn't stopped him from posting some sweet numbers. I think he is a late lottery lock at this point. I probably wouldn't take him if we are top 4, but might be a trade-down option if we aren't thrilled with anyone available with our pick. His offensive game isn't NBA ready, but plenty to develop there.