2020 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

I watched Big O again last night and will now back off on my concerns regarding his motor, no issues there. The issue where he occasionally roams with no purpose is his lack of comfort spending time on the perimeter, he wants to be as close to the basket as possible at all times.

My concern at this point is his fit in the NBA, looks to me to be a classic undersized center, will probably measure around the same as Tristan. He is much more athletic and polished then TT, also a quicker jumper and better touch around the basket, so absolutely a top prospect, but his lack of length will keep him from being an elite 5. Now if he can develop a perimeter game and forecast as a future 4, then there is star potential.

I think the unfortunate reality of this draft is there's just a lot of good, NBA starter quality players. It's really a draft devoid of the top end talent you traditionally have....unless nearly all of the Euro guys pan out and reach their ceiling.

Certainty, in that type of draft, a modern big like Okongwu is valuable. It's very similar to Haliburton. They are just both so certain, IMO, to be good NBA starters that they should be valued a lot more than they are, in a draft with a bunch of land mines.

Again, a lot of season to go but Okongwu just looks like a really safe pick with reasonable upside. He's not a perfect prospect but he does a lot of things well and to a degree that traditionally translates to the next level.

 

["MVP"]

I watched Big O again last night and will now back off on my concerns regarding his motor, no issues there. The issue where he occasionally roams with no purpose is his lack of comfort spending time on the perimeter, he wants to be as close to the basket as possible at all times.

My concern at this point is his fit in the NBA, looks to me to be a classic undersized center, will probably measure around the same as Tristan. He is much more athletic and polished then TT, also a quicker jumper and better touch around the basket, so absolutely a top prospect, but his lack of length will keep him from being an elite 5. Now if he can develop a perimeter game and forecast as a future 4, then there is star potential.

Was at USC-Arizona last night. All three of the lottery guys played well (Nico, Josh Green, Okongwu). There should be no concerns about Okongwu's motor––not sure where that idea came from. He's strong and active. Should be a good rim-running big at the next level and has all the tools to become a great defender.

Obviously, one of the big concerns with him is that he doesn't space the floor or shoot threes. Surprisingly, he demonstrated a really nice touch at the line and hit a mid-range jumper. If he can develop a 3, that takes him to another level as a prospect. I'm intrigued, but still not convinced his style of play currently is worth a top-10 pick (let alone likely top-5).

The guy I'm really intrigued by is Obi Toppin. Haven't watched much Dayton this year, but definitely should. Carrying that program to a No. 6 ranking is no small feat. In a weak draft especially, he seems like he has a good chance to become a top-5 pick.

 

[Nathan S]

Sort of confused by the fascination with Toppin. A generous comparison might be PJ Washington, who was a year+ younger when drafted and went 12th. Toppin seems like more of a late first/early second kind of guy, but people are talking about him in the top 5?

 

[MirORich]

Draftniks: both the eye test guys and the advanced formula guys

What tools out there exist to separate the draft candidates to be more in the Kawhi, PG13, Klay, Butler, prime Iggy mold and less in the Stanley Johnson, MKG, Justice Winslow, Al-Farouq Aminu

Is it more skillset? Measurables? Mindset/attitude?
It's wild now to think that none of those elite guys were top8 picks.
Sadly, I also realize that not every draft has one from the first category.

 

["MVP"]

Sort of confused by the fascination with Toppin. A generous comparison might be PJ Washington, who was a year+ younger when drafted and went 12th. Toppin seems like more of a late first/early second kind of guy, but people are talking about him in the top 5?

I haven't seen a full Dayton game this year, but he's caught my eye as someone to watch since: (1) weak draft, (2) his size and athleticism that fit the mold of a modern stretch 4, (3) raw stats (albeit against A10 competition), (4) Dayton's status as AP 6th rank in country. I also have a soft spot for mid-major guys that were significantly under-recruited in high school... What don't you like about him?

 

[Nathan S]

I haven't seen a full Dayton game this year, but he's caught my eye as someone to watch since: (1) weak draft, (2) his size and athleticism that fit the mold of a modern stretch 4, (3) raw stats (albeit against A10 competition), (4) Dayton's status as AP 6th rank in country. I also have a soft spot for mid-major guys that were significantly under-recruited in high school... What don't you like about him?

I don't dislike him, and I agree that he has a clear role in the NBA. I just don't think he's a mid/high lottery caliber prospect, even in this draft. 20 points and 8 boards per game is good, but not jaw-dropping by any stretch for a guy who'll be 22 next month old playing against a fairly pedestrian schedule.

 

[Cavatt]

Draftniks: both the eye test guys and the advanced formula guys

What tools out there exist to separate the draft candidates to be more in the Kawhi, PG13, Klay, Butler, prime Iggy mold and less in the Stanley Johnson, MKG, Justice Winslow, Al-Farouq Aminu

Is it more skillset? Measurables? Mindset/attitude?
It's wild now to think that none of those elite guys were top8 picks.
Sadly, I also realize that not every draft has one from the first category.

They were all old. Sophomores or older.

 

[BankShot]

Draftniks: both the eye test guys and the advanced formula guys

What tools out there exist to separate the draft candidates to be more in the Kawhi, PG13, Klay, Butler, prime Iggy mold and less in the Stanley Johnson, MKG, Justice Winslow, Al-Farouq Aminu

Is it more skillset? Measurables? Mindset/attitude?
It's wild now to think that none of those elite guys were top8 picks.
Sadly, I also realize that not every draft has one from the first category.

Excellent question, but incredibly difficult to answer (or we'd all be wealthy GM's).

I've always thought there needs to be the right mix of eye test/analytics, too much focus on either one is what leads to the annual list of draft busts. And a lot of it comes down to judging potential, who knew that Kawhi would become such a great perimeter player while MKG would never figure it out?

And a huge factor that doesn't always show on film or in advance stats is work ethic. LBJ would never be the player he has become without an insane work ethic. This is where I hope Beilein's college connections help us when we evaluate and research college kids.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I don't dislike him, and I agree that he has a clear role in the NBA. I just don't think he's a mid/high lottery caliber prospect, even in this draft. 20 points and 8 boards per game is good, but not jaw-dropping by any stretch for a guy who'll be 22 next month old playing against a fairly pedestrian schedule.

It purely comes down to his scoring. If his scoring translates, I can see the path to him being worth a top 5 selection. If you think his scoring doesn't translate, then I would agree, that he doesn't really have other standout skills, of traditional top 5 selections.

The most concerning thing to me, about him, is he has just really poor possession based hustle stat numbers for a big. The one player who profiles almost identically to Toppin is Frank Kaminsky.......their per 100 production is just very similar across the board. Kind of that insdie, outside big who can float, play on the perimeter, pass to an above average degree, etc. So is a shorter, more mobile Frank Kaminsky type good? Possibly.....I think a more compact, athletic version of Kaminsky has a better chance of succeeding but it just is generally concerning that Toppin is that type of player. One who doesn't significantly impact outside of scoring. If he had a bit more production in other areas, I think I would stump for him pretty hard......but at this point, he's just one of the few productive guys slotted in the lottery (today), so I think he gets more benefit of the doubt.

 

["MVP"]

I don't dislike him, and I agree that he has a clear role in the NBA. I just don't think he's a mid/high lottery caliber prospect, even in this draft. 20 points and 8 boards per game is good, but not jaw-dropping by any stretch for a guy who'll be 22 next month old playing against a fairly pedestrian schedule.

His age is actually something that I don't mind as much as most. Apparently, he had zero D-I offers from high school + has improved most of his Per-40 stats since last season. To me, that just spells late-bloomer. & regarding a timeline, if most wings reach their prime from 27-30, hopefully the Cavs are trying to win games 5 years from now.

 

[BankShot]

Sort of confused by the fascination with Toppin. A generous comparison might be PJ Washington, who was a year+ younger when drafted and went 12th. Toppin seems like more of a late first/early second kind of guy, but people are talking about him in the top 5?

PJ /Toppin is a good comparison and they are both legit lottery picks, mainly because everything they do/did well in college translates directly to NBA success. Toppin could be averaging 15/game in the NBA right now, he's got the ideal modern combination of plus athlete with length and inside & outside scoring ability. His only question mark is defense, is he either quick enough to guard on the perimeter or strong enough to defend the post?

 

[Nathan S]

It purely comes down to his scoring. If his scoring translates, I can see the path to him being worth a top 5 selection. If you think his scoring doesn't translate, then I would agree, that he doesn't really have other standout skills, of traditional top 5 selections.

The most concerning thing to me, about him, is he has just really poor possession based hustle stat numbers for a big. The one player who profiles almost identically to Toppin is Frank Kaminsky.......their per 100 production is just very similar across the board. Kind of that insdie, outside big who can float, play on the perimeter, pass to an above average degree, etc. So is a shorter, more mobile Frank Kaminsky type good? Possibly.....I think a more compact, athletic version of Kaminsky has a better chance of succeeding but it just is generally concerning that Toppin is that type of player. One who doesn't significantly impact outside of scoring. If he had a bit more production in other areas, I think I would stump for him pretty hard......but at this point, he's just one of the few productive guys slotted in the lottery (today), so I think he gets more benefit of the doubt.

I'm not seeing what makes him an elite scoring prospect. If I'm drafting a 22-year-old in the top-5 primarily for his scoring, I'd hope he's in the conversation for best pure scorer in the NCAA. But Toppin's not...he's a very good finisher, but just an okay shooter and ballhandler. I'm not seeing the elite upside in any area that would make me want him in the lottery.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

trading for Drummond may have potential implications on our draft choices and may cross off some top draft choices like Wiseman, Okongwu, etc.

As for Toppin, he is very energetic, elite athlete for his size, quick leaper, great lob target, fast roller that will show more in the NBA. He is also not a bad passer at all, and willing one. Projectable NBA 3 point shot? maybe..but he is 22, so it's hard to know.

Toppin has high and weak hips. You can see that he is fairly unstable, uncoordinated moving his feet laterally. He gets the job done, but it's not perfect. He is tall, much taller than PJ WAshington..but because of his lower body he may not be able to play the 5. Although, John Collins also has weaker legs, but his center of gravity is slightly better. Neverthless, Collins plays the 5 and has a much weaker frame overall. Toppin while a quick roller, is not a great screener...but, nowadays it's hard to project to the NBA as I have seen weak screeners become much better in the NBA because of softer rules.

I don't think he has tremendous high basketball IQ. He runs a lot and tries to create actions, but does not look like he has real, solid purpose. It will be much more beneficial in the NBA in a spaced out floor, but in college he gets his lanes blocked a lot. Does not look like a real great pnr defender. Again, does not have great center of gravity so he may get pushed a bit going for defensive rebounds as well.

There is a lot to like, but also some uncertainties. What's certain is that he plays hard all the time on both ends and his skillset, athleticism immediately pop out.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

By the way, Deni Avdija is trending up. Putting up solid Euroleague performances and crushing the local league.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

By the way, Deni Avdija is trending up. Putting up solid Euroleague performances and crushing the local league.

Saw that he also dunked on some dude today, something I thought wouldn't be possible at the beginning of the season.

He might be a legit top 5 prospect after a confusing start to the season.