2020 NBA Draft

[Muffinalt]

Length tends to manifest more on offense. I think that is an area where there is concern.....if you are considering Okongwu in the top 5. He was really bothered by Washington's length when he was on the offensive end, one of the teams who has real NBA length / athletes. But he still rebounded well in that game.

There are plenty of guys in the NBA who can defend the rim without plus length....and I'm also not even sure Okongwu doesn't have average to slightly above average NBA length. Which would be fine. If you use player proxies in film, he looks noticeably bigger than guys listed in the 6'7-6'8" range. So I guess we'll see when he measures.

What is a level below? The basketball league? Pac-12? There's still NBA bigs in that league and it's a power 5 conference. Generally speaking, league affiliation doesn't mean much if it's a non mid major or lower school. Plenty of Pac-12 guys in the league.

I think Okongwu is a more coordinated, better rim defending version of TT (potentially). And that would be a good NBA player.

Yeah I definitely agree with this. If it all translates that's a great player to have in today's game.

Wonder where he ends up in the draft.

 

[daytripper]

If Big O turns out to be a more coordinated, better shot blocking version of TT that's a good player to have but not sure how much that moves the needle for the Cavs. Okongwu reminds me a bit too of Adebayo although he's not nearly as good a passer as Bam.

From my limited perspective I would say that LaMelo Ball might be the only prospect in this entire draft that seems to have an elite skill with his passing. It's kinda crazy that Ball and Big O went to HS together until Lavar pulled his kid out of course.

 

[Nathan S]

If Big O turns out to be a more coordinated, better shot blocking version of TT that's a good player to have but not sure how much that moves the needle for the Cavs. Okongwu reminds me a bit too of Adebayo although he's not nearly as good a passer as Bam.

From my limited perspective I would say that LaMelo Ball might be the only prospect in this entire draft that seems to have an elite skill with his passing. It's kinda crazy that Ball and Big O went to HS together until Lavar pulled his kid out of course.

Haliburton's the other elite passer who should go in the lottery; fun debate who has more potential between him and Ball.

Among bigs, Xavier Tillman has some uncommon passing ability. 3 assists per game and rock-solid defensive credentials, which is a rare combination in a PF/C type.

 

[Muffinalt]

Haliburton's the other elite passer who should go in the lottery; fun debate who has more potential between him and Ball.

Among bigs, Xavier Tillman has some uncommon passing ability. 3 assists per game and rock-solid defensive credentials, which is a rare combination in a PF/C type.

Only watching his highlights now but Tillman reminds you a little of Draymond no? Passing, facilitating, he's showing impressive quickness against centers (beat some off the dribble a few times as well), even shooting some threes.

I really like what I'm seeing. He's the same height as Okongwu I see so we are right back at the convo of how much that blocking will translate. But I have a sweet spot for really smart centers that can pass and do it all. It's always nice to see how much they help offenses along (as we are seeing with Nance now too).

Do you think he compares to Draymond favorably? Or maybe Steven Adams?

 

[Nathan S]

Only watching his highlights now but Tillman reminds you a little of Draymond no? Passing, facilitating, he's showing impressive quickness against centers (beat some off the dribble a few times as well), even shooting some threes.

I really like what I'm seeing. He's the same height as Okongwu I see so we are right back at the convo of how much that blocking will translate. But I have a sweet spot for really smart centers that can pass and do it all. It's always nice to see how much they help offenses along (as we are seeing with Nance now too).

Do you think he compares to Draymond favorably? Or maybe Steven Adams?

I made the Draymond comparison last year (same team too, so almost irresistible, lol). I think it's a good comparison, with Tillman holding an edge in raw athleticism but not quite as big an outlier in terms of basketball IQ.

 

[Cavatt]

Haliburton's the other elite passer who should go in the lottery; fun debate who has more potential between him and Ball.

Among bigs, Xavier Tillman has some uncommon passing ability. 3 assists per game and rock-solid defensive credentials, which is a rare combination in a PF/C type.

If we didn't have Garland, Halliburton would be my first choice I think. Fit well with Sexton and provide that playmaking in a sg body. High IQ, good defense. I think Halliburton is going to be really good, but he's still not a #1 option. With Garland here, you con't have any idea if they plan on keeping Sexton and then Halliburton + Garland doesn't seem that great.

 

[Muffinalt]

I made the Draymond comparison last year (same team too, so almost irresistible, lol). I think it's a good comparison, with Tillman holding an edge in raw athleticism but not quite as big an outlier in terms of basketball IQ.

Ah yes I just finished reading your convos about him with I'mWithDan. Not surprisingly many times Haliburton's name was mentioned next to him too.

You were pretty high on him last draft, where do you think he goes I'm a draft like this year's? Could he be a mid round pick or late first? Maybe even end of lottery?

Too bad he's not a few inches taller, but even still I just love a player with smarts and passing like him.

 

[Muffinalt]

If we didn't have Garland, Halliburton would be my first choice I think. Fit well with Sexton and provide that playmaking in a sg body. High IQ, good defense. I think Halliburton is going to be really good, but he's still not a #1 option. With Garland here, you con't have any idea if they plan on keeping Sexton and then Halliburton + Garland doesn't seem that great.

I think I would still take him if he's BPA without worrying much. He fits great with Sexton and for all we know Garland could end up being a bench player for a few years anyway. Not a horrible fit with him though either if we decide to move Sexton to the bench or to another team.

He's kind of like a Delly on steroids to me, and a Delly-like player fits with anyone.

Let's get him and Tillman both, and our team's passing IQ is instantly trabsformed haha.

 

[Nathan S]

Ah yes I just finished reading your convos about him with I'mWithDan. Not surprisingly many times Haliburton's name was mentioned next to him too.

You were pretty high on him last draft, where do you think he goes I'm a draft like this year's? Could he be a mid round pick or late first? Maybe even end of lottery?

Too bad he's not a few inches taller, but even still I just love a player with smarts and passing like him.

Probably late first/early second just because there are so many quality bigs in this draft.

I do think lack of prototypical center height is an issue for some of these guys, but as always, I'd rather take guys who're a couple inches undersized but have proven they can get the job done than guys with great physical tools who for whatever reason aren't big difference makers in college.

 

[MirORich]

So, and of course so much can change, but lets presume a few things. Drummond opts in or extends with the Cavs. Love is happy. Nance makes a perfect 3rd big.

We are going to be focused on looking for the two way wing, no? That Klay, Kawhi, PG13, Jimmy Butler, prime GS era Iggy even, or even pre-injury Gordon Hayward.

Who is the guy in this draft who looks like they could aim for those heights?

Also, what's wild about list from above is none of those guys went in the top8 of their drafts. And they were all showing out and exhibiting all NBA potential by their second seasons.

 

[Cavatt]

So, and of course so much can change, but lets presume a few things. Drummond opts in or extends with the Cavs. Love is happy. Nance makes a perfect 3rd big.

We are going to be focused on looking for the two way wing, no? That Klay, Kawhi, PG13, Jimmy Butler, prime GS era Iggy even, or even pre-injury Gordon Hayward.

Who is the guy in this draft who looks like they could aim for those heights?

Also, what's wild about list from above is none of those guys went in the top8 of their drafts. And they were all showing out and exhibiting all NBA potential by their second seasons.

Okoro. Really good defender and passer. Finishes at the rim at high rate, and improved shooting.

 

[STAT]

Here's a half-baked hot take draft philosophy: take the best available wing, always (BAW to the conventional BPA).

That is, a rebuilding team like ours, is best served by operating under a strong rebuttable presumption they they will draft a wing. Is there a guy you like better who is a small guard? Or a more traditional big? Too bad, take a swing on the wing. The only scenarios in which the presumption can be rebutted--and you can opt for a non-wing--is if you roster a franchise-altering wing or you believe the gulf between the best non-wing and the best wing available is vast. For example, if you drafted first in this past year, you could indeed take Zion or Morant over R.J.

The rationale underlying BAW is this. To credibly contend for a title, it is not just that you need a transcendent superstar; you almost certainly need a transcendent superstar wing. Of course there are exceptions: Curry, Jokic, Embiid. But by and large, title contenders are built around wings. Moreover, the downside seems better. There are more valuable uses for replacement level wings than bigs or small guards.

Inevitably, a strategy like this will lead to misses. Adherence would have had the Cavs take Culver over Garland. I'm not entirely convinced Garland will end up better, but the early returns are in his favor. Nonetheless, BAW is the draft philosophy I would employ rigidly for the foreseeable future.

 

[MirORich]

I'm fascinated that 2 and 3 year college players Kawhi, PG13, Klay, Jimmy Butler, and Gordon Hayward all went in the 9-15 areas of the 2010-2011 drafts.

Like looking at them now in their primes, how did people not see them as worthy as top5 picks at that time?

And that doesn't even include international "projects" like Giannis/Siakam or one and done potential picks like Booker/Oubre/TJ Warren

If you made a list of the 15 best wings under 30, at least 2/3 if not more were taking outside the top8 picks.

So whether we pick 4th or 9th in this draft, I hope we're able to study what makes for a plus two way wing in this league and take him in our pick regardless of where the mocks him ranked

 

[I'mWithDan]

I'm fascinated that 2 and 3 year college players Kawhi, PG13, Klay, Jimmy Butler, and Gordon Hayward all went in the 9-15 areas of the 2010-2011 drafts.

Like looking at them now in their primes, how did people not see them as worthy as top5 picks at that time?

And that doesn't even include international "projects" like Giannis/Siakam or one and done potential picks like Booker/Oubre/TJ Warren

If you made a list of the 15 best wings under 30, at least 2/3 if not more were taking outside the top8 picks.

So whether we pick 4th or 9th in this draft, I hope we're able to study what makes for a plus two way wing in this league and take him in our pick regardless of where the mocks him ranked

I've talked about this in the past but aside from Durant, most NBA wings are misused in college. So they tend to have pretty average analytical profiles. College coaches really lean towards veteran, guard heavy offenses.... wings are left to do more of the dirty work, score at lower volume and many times, just play out of position or off the ball almost full time. A lot of NBA wings end up being college 4's, where they don't get to develop or even showcase their NBA skills. In this class, I think Achiuwa is a good example of that......with Wiseman gone, he's turned more in to a 4, who P&R's......but watch his high school tape and see how fluid and gifted he is with the ball.

So wing evaluation just tends to be relative, which is the adjustment the stuff I look at tries to make. It's more of a blend of peer comparison / NBA size / Age. Because if it was a raw analytical profile, compared to all players, across any position, 95+% of the college wings would look un-draftable.

Relative to the wing position, these are the guys who look to be average or better. Average meaning, an average wing prospect, compared to successful wing outcomes. Average or better is usually a good indicator a guy can reasonably succeed at the NBA level:

Wings:

Aaron Nesmith
Jordan Nwora

Tweeners:

Paul Reed
Tyler Bey

The tweeners may be able to play on the wing but it is TBD.

Currently, I only have data on about 30 prospects, that have generally floated in consensus mocks as 1st rounders.

Guys that have been more lukewarm but trending upward:

Precious Achiuwa
Josh Green
Isaac Okoro

I think those 5 are probably where the good NBA wing is going to come from, from this draft ( Nesmith, Nwora, Achiuwa, Green, Okoro) but there are still a lot of games left. Haliburton also has the size and skillset, IMO, to be considered a wing.....which would make that group 6.

 

[BankShot]

I watched Big O again last night and will now back off on my concerns regarding his motor, no issues there. The issue where he occasionally roams with no purpose is his lack of comfort spending time on the perimeter, he wants to be as close to the basket as possible at all times.

My concern at this point is his fit in the NBA, looks to me to be a classic undersized center, will probably measure around the same as Tristan. He is much more athletic and polished then TT, also a quicker jumper and better touch around the basket, so absolutely a top prospect, but his lack of length will keep him from being an elite 5. Now if he can develop a perimeter game and forecast as a future 4, then there is star potential.