2020 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

Tristan has something else going on. He only won 28% of jump balls. He is in the same tier as guys like Nene and Dirk. Can you explain to me why one of the bets rebounders in the league is getting the same percentage of jump balls as some of the oldest most ground bound big men? I don't want to try to totally negate your point, but Tristan has some weird inconsistencies in his game I can't explain.

Okongwu is pretty much exactly TT's size though and Wiseman has 5" in wingspan on him. One of the criticisms I have seen of Wiseman is he is not actually a good defender, but can block shots, whereas Okongwu's defensive numbers are good.

Which one is more likely to get run off the floor? Even watching Drummond and TT play, I see why some of us have thought TT is better despite worse numbers.

Very tough. I feel like I can argue it both ways. It doesn't help we didn't see Wiseman grow this season.

Okungwu's college block percentage was significantly higher than TT's (9.8% to 7.2%)....Okongwu is closer to a Myles Turner profile, who is an impactful defensive player around the rim at the NBA level. Block percentage seems to be the more reliable indicator of how likely it may be that a player can make the defensive transition. TT had good volume numbers but his block % indicates he just had more opportunities per 100. Okongwu isn't elite there but ideally, you like to see someone around 10%, which he is.

Okongwu is also more efficient on a per foul basis, in terms of producing the hustle stats that really tend to translate as well. His BLK+STL / PF was 19% better than TT. His BLK+STL+OREB/PF was a hair over 4% better. Okongwu profiles as a potentially better defensive version of TT, which to me, is already a pretty damn valuable big.......but he's also a significantly better and more efficient offensive player on top of that.

I'd tend to argue for Okongwu because of his interchangeability. I think he's someone who can play either the 4 or 5.....so from a team building and lineup standpoint, he gives you more options to get your best 5 on the floor......vs. Wiseman, who is most definitely a 5.

I'm on record as being very pro Wiseman........I just think all of the data I lean on and all of the smart people in the scouting world I trust, are just saying Okongwu should probably be taken ahead of him, even with Wiseman's physical gifts.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Funny you bring him up. I was just looking at his numbers and a couple write ups about him yesterday. Never heard of him before (which isn't saying much coming from me). Could be a wild card sort in this draft but very risky. I like Okongwu but he strikes me as a TT clone, which isn't a bad thing really. I watched a few of his HS highlights and it looked like he could make high school 3s. Could he have untapped shooting potential?

He has nice touch around the rim and he was a 70+% FT shooter as a young big. Those two things tend to indicate he has some shooting potential.

I did some shooting potential models last year......and on position basis, it was most accurate at predicting big men who made leaps forward and extended their range. It looks at a mix of 3PM, FTA, FTM and %. I can run it again but it had a near predictive correlation coefficient for bigs...... I believe it was a hair above .60 .....so it was hovering high enough near that .7-.71 range that you should at least give it some thought when assessing guys.

The model liked guys like Plumlee, AD, KAT....guys who really just shot no 3's at all in college, who went on to be extended range bigs......it likes Okongwu to a similar degree. That isn't a guarantee he will extend his range but he tends to have the right mix of statistical markers that says it is possible. I'll have to try to dig up the charts I did on it last year.

 

[MirORich]

 

[daddywags]

Suspending the lottery suggests they still hope to play some regular season games, right?

 

[Cavatt]

He has nice touch around the rim and he was a 70+% FT shooter as a young big. Those two things tend to indicate he has some shooting potential.

I did some shooting potential models last year......and on position basis, it was most accurate at predicting big men who made leaps forward and extended their range. It looks at a mix of 3PM, FTA, FTM and %. I can run it again but it had a near predictive correlation coefficient for bigs...... I believe it was a hair above .60 .....so it was hovering high enough near that .7-.71 range that you should at least give it some thought when assessing guys.

The model liked guys like Plumlee, AD, KAT....guys who really just shot no 3's at all in college, who went on to be extended range bigs......it likes Okongwu to a similar degree. That isn't a guarantee he will extend his range but he tends to have the right mix of statistical markers that says it is possible. I'll have to try to dig up the charts I did on it last year.

I like his shooting potential too. Do you have a big board yet? Where would you feel comfortable taking Okongwu? Your numbers said Wiseman was the best prospect if I read that correctly.

 

[Cavatt]

Suspending the lottery suggests they still hope to play some regular season games, right?

Yeah otherwise I think they would be pushing it for content.

 

[Kiddo]

1A - Wiseman - How often do you get the chance to draft a 7’1 Center who moves like a small forward. From day one he’ll be decent on def and will have a strong inside game on offense. His shooting stroke looks solid and I have no reason to think he can’t develop a jumper or even an outside shot. He probably isn’t the safest pick but he has the most upside in this draft.

1B - Edwards - Super athletic and is very smooth. He’s a scorer plain and simple. Still only 18 years old and has so much untapped potential. His shooting numbers are maybe a little low but for an 18 year old kid it’s not alarming. Strong nba ready body and would be our 2 guard from day 1. Could result in trading Sexton for front court help.

2A - Okongwu - Again super athletic and smooth. A previous poster compared him to TT but Okongwu is much more natural and plays higher above the rim. Great defensive potential, plays well inside on offense and has potential from mid range. Runs the floor really well. Likely the safest pick.

2B- Ball - He’s already a great passer and creator. Has great size for a pg and has shown flashes of good shooting. He’s pretty advanced as a scorer but need to work on shot selection. Picking him means Garland is likely traded.

Any of these 4 would be pretty awesome.

CBS has a new mock out that has Okongwu going 9th and and Wiseman 12th. Their reasoning is that the top drafting teams will all be looking at upgrading backcourt positions. That seems ridiculous.

Ideally I’d love to see us pick Edwards and then turn around and trade Sexton for our PF/C of the future.

Garland
Edwards/Windler
KPJ/Cedi
This backcourt can facilitate, shoot and get to the hoop. Just need an Okongwu type to run the floor and anchor the defense.

 

[pinoycavsfan]

1A - Wiseman - How often do you get the chance to draft a 7’1 Center who moves like a small forward. From day one he’ll be decent on def and will have a strong inside game on offense. His shooting stroke looks solid and I have no reason to think he can’t develop a jumper or even an outside shot. He probably isn’t the safest pick but he has the most upside in this draft.

1B - Edwards - Super athletic and is very smooth. He’s a scorer plain and simple. Still only 18 years old and has so much untapped potential. His shooting numbers are maybe a little low but for an 18 year old kid it’s not alarming. Strong nba ready body and would be our 2 guard from day 1. Could result in trading Sexton for front court help.

2A - Okongwu - Again super athletic and smooth. A previous poster compared him to TT but Okongwu is much more natural and plays higher above the rim. Great defensive potential, plays well inside on offense and has potential from mid range. Runs the floor really well. Likely the safest pick.

2B- Ball - He’s already a great passer and creator. Has great size for a pg and has shown flashes of good shooting. He’s pretty advanced as a scorer but need to work on shot selection. Picking him means Garland is likely traded.

Any of these 4 would be pretty awesome.

CBS has a new mock out that has Okongwu going 9th and and Wiseman 12th. Their reasoning is that the top drafting teams will all be looking at upgrading backcourt positions. That seems ridiculous.

Ideally I’d love to see us pick Edwards and then turn around and trade Sexton for our PF/C of the future.

Garland
Edwards/Windler
KPJ/Cedi
This backcourt can facilitate, shoot and get to the hoop. Just need an Okongwu type to run the floor and anchor the defense.

Why trade Sexton though? He's one of the productive young players the cavs have. He has his warts, but I'd trade Garland first before Sexton.

 

[6.19.2016]

I don't know what the move in this draft is. 2013 would tell us that we should go with the safer pick. We could have had Otto Porter or Oladipo, either would have been better than Bennett in the Title run. Or you can take the other lesson from 2013 and really reach and take a guy that people say should be in the teens to get the Giannis of this draft. That seems very low odds though. I'm leaning toward Okongwu/Vassell and going the safe route.

As I've said, is there even a title run if there is no 2014 lottery pick, and therefore no LeComeback, due to Dipo/Giannis/Hyphen,maybe Porter, who still wouldn't have had that much trade value yet in lieu of the Wiggins pick, getting us into the playoffs that season?

Suspending the lottery suggests they still hope to play some regular season games, right?

The regional sports networks trying to get to 70 games for their contracts continues to be a factor, although it seems pointless for lotto teams to restart, and there appear to be some workarounds to fufill those contracts.

Also, any "quarantine bubble" would be badly hindered by doubling the amount of teams by adding rosters with nothing to play for.

 

[benchplayer]

Why trade Sexton though? He's one of the productive young players the cavs have. He has his warts, but I'd trade Garland first before Sexton.

Sexton averaging 20 PTS a game while showing growth in other areas like AST. I wouldn't trade him because we don't know if Edwards will better, and we still don't know what we have in Garland.

I'd be ok with

Wiseman
ball - hoping he can play SF
Toppin/Okongwu

 

[LackOfSkill]

I’d love to hear people’s rankings of the following three players (this isn’t my order):

1. James Wiseman
2. Obi Toppin
3. Onyeka Okongwu

This trio is the toughest for me this year, as they’re all completely different types of bigs.

Wiseman I’m concerned with what level his awareness is at... I’m not really concerned about all of the offensive questions, because I think you take him with the expectation that he’s never anything more than a diver offensively (that’s still a very valuable skill for a big, especially one with his hands/tools).

Toppin I’m concerned with the age and defensive position. I do think his perimeter defense is a little bit blown out of proportion. He has the athleticism to get back into plays if burned one on one or in P&R. That argument should be more focused on the longevity of that type of style IMO. I’m sold on him offensively.

Okongwu is the toughest one for me personally. This is “get off my lawn” type of material, but I’m already tired of hearing everyone immediately revert to Bam Adebayo with every single breakdown of his game. It’s lazy, and he does not have the passing or shooting Bam does. He’s also a tick smaller, which is huge when you’re talking about a do it all defensive big. I’m concerned with his size/length and think it’s being undervalued in the conversation of Okongwu vs Wiseman. Can he play center full time? I’m also concerned with the shooting... he did not look capable even from mid range last year. I know the FT% is what everyone points to, but to me he looks further away than what he gets credit for.

 

[benchplayer]

I’d love to hear people’s rankings of the following three players (this isn’t my order):

1. James Wiseman
2. Obi Toppin
3. Onyeka Okongwu

This trio is the toughest for me this year, as they’re all completely different types of bigs.

Wiseman I’m concerned with what level his awareness is at... I’m not really concerned about all of the offensive questions, because I think you take him with the expectation that he’s never anything more than a diver offensively (that’s still a very valuable skill for a big, especially one with his hands/tools).

Toppin I’m concerned with the age and defensive position. I do think his perimeter defense is a little bit blown out of proportion. He has the athleticism to get back into plays if burned one on one or in P&R. That argument should be more focused on the longevity of that type of style IMO. I’m sold on him offensively.

Okongwu is the toughest one for me personally. This is “get off my lawn” type of material, but I’m already tired of hearing everyone immediately revert to Bam Adebayo with every single breakdown of his game. It’s lazy, and he does not have the passing or shooting Bam does. He’s also a tick smaller, which is huge when you’re talking about a do it all defensive big. I’m concerned with his size/length and think it’s being undervalued in the conversation of Okongwu vs Wiseman. Can he play center full time? I’m also concerned with the shooting... he did not look capable even from mid range last year. I know the FT% is what everyone points to, but to me he looks further away than what he gets credit for.

My rankings are the same as that you posted. I Love the idea of having a 5 that can hit the 3, and Wiseman and Toppin have the potential to do that.
I'm intrigued with ball because that would give us a lot of versatility and allow us to play a big lineup with his height and ball handling:

PG Ball
SG KPJ or Windler
SF Windler or Cedi
PF Love
C Drummond (If he's here)

 

[benchplayer]

oops

 

[LackOfSkill]

My rankings are the same as that you posted. I Love the idea of having a 5 that can hit the 3, and Wiseman and Toppin have the potential to do that.
I'm intrigued with ball because that would give us a lot of versatility and allow us to play a big lineup with his height and ball handling:

PG Ball
SG KPJ or Windler
SF Windler or Cedi
PF Love
C Drummond (If he's here)

Do you think Toppin can play the five full time? I think he can get spot minutes there, but not vs interior scorers that can take advantage of his high center of gravity.

 

[Cavatt]

I’d love to hear people’s rankings of the following three players (this isn’t my order):

1. James Wiseman
2. Obi Toppin
3. Onyeka Okongwu

This trio is the toughest for me this year, as they’re all completely different types of bigs.

Wiseman I’m concerned with what level his awareness is at... I’m not really concerned about all of the offensive questions, because I think you take him with the expectation that he’s never anything more than a diver offensively (that’s still a very valuable skill for a big, especially one with his hands/tools).

Toppin I’m concerned with the age and defensive position. I do think his perimeter defense is a little bit blown out of proportion. He has the athleticism to get back into plays if burned one on one or in P&R. That argument should be more focused on the longevity of that type of style IMO. I’m sold on him offensively.

Okongwu is the toughest one for me personally. This is “get off my lawn” type of material, but I’m already tired of hearing everyone immediately revert to Bam Adebayo with every single breakdown of his game. It’s lazy, and he does not have the passing or shooting Bam does. He’s also a tick smaller, which is huge when you’re talking about a do it all defensive big. I’m concerned with his size/length and think it’s being undervalued in the conversation of Okongwu vs Wiseman. Can he play center full time? I’m also concerned with the shooting... he did not look capable even from mid range last year. I know the FT% is what everyone points to, but to me he looks further away than what he gets credit for.

Wiseman is the bigggest question mark to me. Tantalizing because of his body, but is known to have a bad motor. His highlights really concern me. They look like Anthony Bennett minus the shooting. Just dunking on tiny nobodies. Good blocks with bad defense.

Toppin is the best of a bad class. The fact nobody heard of him until now is disturbing. He is older than Collin. The Cavs chose TT because he shut down Derek Williams, but that ended up saying more about D Will. I feel like a similar scenario here. No way Toppin would be in the lottery with a good group of 1 and dones.

Thing I like about Okongwu is the bball iq. High iq and good body goes a long way. Very good touch around the rim finishing through contact. I think he can be a good switch defender. Just very engaged and aware on defensive end. Looks more like an NBA player than most lottery guys