2020 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

prove that he changed his shot and it showed in games against good defenses in EL and maybe I will change my opinion.

I think you are thinking about this the wrong way. A player being willing to change and work on mechanical improvement is a really positive sign that that player is extremely coachable. When you add talent + work ethic + coach-ability.......you get a lot of positive outcomes.

Deni was already rising on boards......he's probably going to be a top 10 pick regardless of what he does with his shot.....but he got feedback from scouts that he needed to consider mechanical tweaks to become a more consistent shooter at the next level.......and he opted to do that PRIOR to the draft process. So clearly, he is extremely confident and comfortable with those changes or he would just be kicking them down the road.

In terms of what you want to see.....that will only happen with time. A guy can't fast forward and take 500 3's immediately. The two positive returns thus far are his willingness to make changes.....I think that is a huge feather is his cap.......and beyond aesthetics, he is starting to see returns on higher volume. I'm not sure how this isn't exciting for people on both ends of the opinion spectrum. I'm on record as saying if he fixed his shooting mechanics, that would certainly change his ceiling......and if he sees continued improvement and those initial numbers stick, he's a pretty exciting prospect when looking at the totality of his profile.

 

[Randolphkeys]

prove that he changed his shot and it showed in games against good defenses in EL and maybe I will change my opinion. I do not agree he made any changes that were leading to significant improvements and you clearly were not paying attn to him at all if you think so. You can have your "everybody must agree with my unproven opinions" or be labelled a child mantra
surprising coming from a mod

Mods have had a lot of conversation about you. Subtle didn't work. Now I've moved on to direct. Your move here, chief.

 

[Nathan S]

The concern definitely is he does sometimes get physically overwhelmed by taller players. As a defender, Alexander is a good perimeter defender against like sized players, as he does have length that is bothersome but that length seems to get mitigated by a lack of strength. I think that can be remedied to some degree but lacking a bit of defensive versatility on the wing will hurt him for sure.

With that said, I do think his elite skill is his shooting projection.........Alexander has seen rather significant year over year increases in most categories

Per 100:

Frosh: 3.9 FTA, 9 3PA, .333 3PT%, .707 FT%
Soph: 5.5 FTA, 13.7 3PA, .365 3PT%, .794 FT%
Junior: 7.2 FTA, 10.8 3PA, .399 3PT%, .860 FT%

It would be tough to find a player with similar shooting graphs.....and he couples that with rock solid shooting mechanics. Elevation, high entry, high release and it all looks very effortless......he just seems like a slam dunk 40% shooter at the NBA level.....and if he's able to guard 1's or 2's, you can certainly envision him being a plus player.

Is it really that tough? Upperclassman guards who shoot ~40% from 3, and mid/high 80's from the line? I'm not sure it's that rare. Pretty similar to Malik Newman who we brought in for summer league last year...at that size, you have to bring more to the table than just a good jumpshot to stick in the NBA.

Looking at his advanced offensive metrics, it again is just a near perfect curve.

Frosh: 0.5 OWS, 0.7 OBPM, 1.9 BPM
Soph: 2.2 OWS, 3.4 OBPM, 4.5 BPM
Junior: 3.4 OWS, 5.8 OBPM, 7.7 BPM

A vast majority of metrics have continually been improving year over year.....and this past season he was a near 60% TS as a guard. That is pretty tough to do at volume. I agree his defense is the concern....but a 2 DBPM player in college should probably be able to tread water at the NBA level....and if he does that, he's become such a knockdown shooter, that I would bet on him having the chance to stick long term.

It's a nice curve, but it's not NBA caliber IMO. There are lots of upperclassman guards with 10+ BPM's who don't stick in the NBA. Among upperclassmen, I'm really only interested in guys who're top-10 players in the country, or who have some kind of crazy outlier trait.

When speaking specifically about Butler, Alexander is a far more efficient scorer. He's also far better at producing defensive stats without fouling. I would imagine Butler will foul his way off the court often. That is also one of the reasons why Butlers none scoring impact is negative....whereas Alexander is a plus non scoring player with his shooting gravity, rebounding and AST/TO ratio. Alexander I think isn't being given credit for being a solid athlete, where things like his rebounding rate, steal rate and foul rate would tend to intimate he's possibly underrated. It's tough for non athletes to produce a good REB+STL/PF figure and Alexander does. I'm curious to see what his athletic testing is.

A point I've made before, and that I'll make again here, is that fouling isn't actually negatively correlated with defensive success in the NBA (except perhaps in the unique case of big men with very high foul rates). In fact, it's *easy* to have a low foul rate in college by simply being disengaged most of the time. If you sort your database by foul rate, you'll find guys like Jimmer Fredette boasting ultra-low foul rates. Malik Newman is virtually identical to Alexander here as well. Guys like Okoro in contrast have relatively high foul rates and much worse REB+STL/PF numbers, but that's not because they're worse defenders, it's because they're more active, physical defenders. For every foul, there are 10 plays that don't show up in the box score where Okoro used his physicality to disrupt a play.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Is it really that tough? Upperclassman guards who shoot ~40% from 3, and mid/high 80's from the line? I'm not sure it's that rare. Pretty similar to Malik Newman who we brought in for summer league last year...at that size, you have to bring more to the table than just a good jumpshot to stick in the NBA.

40/85 on volume is not common. Only 9 drafted players in the possession era have done that. 2% ish (on 10 or more 3PA per 100). It doesn't guarantee anything but it is a very small subset of players. Lillard, McDermott, McCollum, Hield were in that group.

I think what makes Alexander intriguing is he shoots well from all situation types. Off the move, off the dribble, catch and shoot, re-set, wide open, contested......he is not just a guy who can make shots when wide open or just off the catch. He can create and shoot from all situation types, that is absolutely an elite skill. The guys on the list who didn't pan out tended to be stand still shooters.....ala Gary Trent Jr. But guys who showed the ability to shoot in a variety of play types, they succeed at higher than average rates. Will Alexander? Maybe not.

I don't want to veer off too much here on just Alexander.......but he is in a group of guys who were elite college shooters. Will he make it? I have no idea....but given his progression and where his last college season places him amongst high volume drafted players? It says he's not a very common shooter type.....someone who shoots at high volume, at high percentage, and does so on all shot types.

 

[Randolphkeys]

More fun graphs:

One guy who really shines on all of your graphs is Tyler Bey of Buffalo. I think part of the reason is that a power forward is put in a position to clean up a lot of steals, blocks, free throws and offensive rebounds.

I will readily admit I didn't catch much PAC-12 ball this season. I thought the teams were pretty weak. His transition from power forward to a wing is the reason he keeps showing up on the first round / second round bubble. I still like the way he plays a floor game, and is another name to stash away if the Cavs can figure out a way to get back into the second round.

 

[Nathan S]

One guy who really shines on all of your graphs is Tyler Bey of Buffalo. I think part of the reason is that a power forward is put in a position to clean up a lot of steals, blocks, free throws and offensive rebounds.

I will readily admit I didn't catch much PAC-12 ball this season. I thought the teams were pretty weak. His transition from power forward to a wing is the reason he keeps showing up on the first round / second round bubble. I still like the way he plays a floor game, and is another name to stash away if the Cavs can figure out a way to get back into the second round.

Any time a perimeter player wins conference DPOY he's worth looking into. Question is, can he shoot? If he can, then he seems like a near lock to be a useful rotation guy. If not, he probably disappears into an end-of-bench energy guy role.

EDIT: worth listing off all major conference DPOY's, actually:

B10: Tillman
B12: Garrett
Big East: Gill
Pac12: Bey
ACC: Jones
SEC: Pons

Turns out it's not just Bey...all of these guys are below-average shooters for their positions. If you're a GM you'd want to get them in the gym for shooting drills, and have your coaches try to judge if there's potential there or not.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Any time a perimeter player wins conference DPOY he's worth looking into. Question is, can he shoot? If he can, then he seems like a near lock to be a useful rotation guy. If not, he probably disappears into an end-of-bench energy guy role.

A lot of the sleepers I'm catching up on right now are college power forwards trying to become NBA perimeter players. They are the types who can fit what the NBA has become - switching defenders, plus rebounders, but it all depends upon their ability to shoot from the outside and create space in the half court.

Aside from Cedi Osman, the Cavs haven't taken a good swing at developing a player like that. Windler has small forward size, but played on the perimeter in college as a go-to scoring shooting guard. They know a player with guard skills have a higher floor because there is a lot of film with the ball in their hands before the draft.

So you are right that it's a risk, lots of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson types out there, but it has become a risk that the Cavs are overdue in taking.

 

[Nathan S]

40/85 on volume is not common. Only 9 drafted players in the possession era have done that. 2% ish (on 10 or more 3PA per 100). It doesn't guarantee anything but it is a very small subset of players. Lillard, McDermott, McCollum, Hield were in that group.

I think what makes Alexander intriguing is he shoots well from all situation types. Off the move, off the dribble, catch and shoot, re-set, wide open, contested......he is not just a guy who can make shots when wide open or just off the catch. He can create and shoot from all situation types, that is absolutely an elite skill. The guys on the list who didn't pan out tended to be stand still shooters.....ala Gary Trent Jr. But guys who showed the ability to shoot in a variety of play types, they succeed at higher than average rates. Will Alexander? Maybe not.

I don't want to veer off too much here on just Alexander.......but he is in a group of guys who were elite college shooters. Will he make it? I have no idea....but given his progression and where his last college season places him amongst high volume drafted players? It says he's not a very common shooter type.....someone who shoots at high volume, at high percentage, and does so on all shot types.

I guess it comes down to whether you think he's a great shooter, or merely very good, and that's not an easy call to make. As you point out, you ultimately have to look beyond the box score.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Any time a perimeter player wins conference DPOY he's worth looking into. Question is, can he shoot? If he can, then he seems like a near lock to be a useful rotation guy. If not, he probably disappears into an end-of-bench energy guy role.

EDIT: worth listing off all major conference DPOY's, actually:

B10: Tillman
B12: Garrett
Big East: Gill
Pac12: Bey
ACC: Jones
SEC: Pons

Turns out it's not just Bey...all of these guys are below-average shooters for their positions. If you're a GM you'd want to get them in the gym for shooting drills, and have your coaches try to judge if there's potential there or not.

Bey shot 75% from the line on 400+ college FT attempts. It seems like he has to reasonably have some shooting potential. He also at least flashed the ability to take and make 3’s this past season. Mechanically, he looks pretty solid too.

Just looking at how well someone like Clarke did as a “SF” in the NBA, I wouldn’t hesitate to roll the dice on Bey. He’s of that same mold. Undersized but athletic and great instincts. He just has so many skills that should translate to the modern NBA game.

The other potential swing skill for Bey, as a rotational player, is he became a pretty good team passer this past season. Where he was pretty adept at finding cutters or the open man if doubled. It was not something he had shown earlier in his career.

 

[cabs]

Lottery in just over a months time hype

 

[Randolphkeys]

Bey is a fun player to watch on both ends of the floor. It's a shame the Cavs traded away their 2020 second rounder, but they have a lot of future 2nd rounders locked and loaded.

Colorado's Tyler Bey displays high basketball IQ with defense, passing

Having added 3-point shooting to his repertoire, Bey might be first-rounder

www.nba.com

I see role player tools here.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Bey is a fun player to watch on both ends of the floor. It's a shame the Cavs traded away their 2020 second rounder, but they have a lot of future 2nd rounders locked and loaded.

Colorado's Tyler Bey displays high basketball IQ with defense, passing

Having added 3-point shooting to his repertoire, Bey might be first-rounder

www.nba.com

I see role player tools here.

He (and guys like Reed) seem like a no brainer pick for someone in the playoffs. It’s easy to envision him on someone like the Lakers, where you could put a stretch 5 on the floor and interchange he and LeBron at the 3/4. Bey could operate as the primary screener and would be a pretty devastating role man. An opposing team having to have a 4 in that action would be a nightmare.

Maybe I am wrong on Bey but I would be really surprised if he wasn’t selected by a contending team. He’s a cheap, ready made role player with upside.

 

[Randolphkeys]

He (and guys like Reed) seem like a no brainer pick for someone in the playoffs. It’s easy to envision him on someone like the Lakers, where you could put a stretch 5 on the floor and interchange he and LeBron at the 3/4. Bey could operate as the primary screener and would be a pretty devastating role man. An opposing team having to have a 4 in that action would be a nightmare.

Maybe I am wrong on Bey but I would be really surprised if he wasn’t selected by a contending team. He’s a cheap, ready made role player with upside.

This is a draft where the film and intel are all older and less detailed. By now, teams would have the tournament play, draft combine, individual interviews and workouts in place.

So it is so early in the draft process I see the whole second half of the first round into the top half of the second round as polarizing. It's going to be harder than ever to identify best player available in that range, so as of now a guy I might mock at #20 could easily last until pick 40.

This was expected to be a weak draft before all of the Covid-19 roadblocks were put into place, which was supposed to be one reason Altman used the 2nd rounder to move up for Porter. It's fun to talk sleepers, but I feel like I will be less prepared for this draft than any I've followed since the days of black and teal jerseys.

 

[Ozone]

40/85 on volume is not common. Only 9 drafted players in the possession era have done that. 2% ish (on 10 or more 3PA per 100). It doesn't guarantee anything but it is a very small subset of players. Lillard, McDermott, McCollum, Hield were in that group.

I think what makes Alexander intriguing is he shoots well from all situation types. Off the move, off the dribble, catch and shoot, re-set, wide open, contested......he is not just a guy who can make shots when wide open or just off the catch. He can create and shoot from all situation types, that is absolutely an elite skill. The guys on the list who didn't pan out tended to be stand still shooters.....ala Gary Trent Jr. But guys who showed the ability to shoot in a variety of play types, they succeed at higher than average rates. Will Alexander? Maybe not.

I don't want to veer off too much here on just Alexander.......but he is in a group of guys who were elite college shooters. Will he make it? I have no idea....but given his progression and where his last college season places him amongst high volume drafted players? It says he's not a very common shooter type.....someone who shoots at high volume, at high percentage, and does so on all shot types.

Right imo Alexander having exceptional length with a 7'2 ws and being a well proven defender on the wing,he should be a top 20 pick in this class. there is so many in online forums that are missing on this kid it's laughable. But most scouting departments know exactly who he is and it's why he will probably go 10-15 picks higher than the average mock. There are a few others even more slept on in this draft and maybe by some scouts still as well like the Kispert's, Hinton's or Tillie's as mid-late first value instead of late first early second as projected and the deep sleepers like Scrubb, Petty or Queen who are seen as UDFA are definitely worthy of 2 way roster spots picks in the 50's.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Right imo Alexander having exceptional length with a 7'2 ws and being a well proven defender on the wing,he should be a top 20 pick in this class. there is so many in online forums that are missing on this kid it's laughable. But most scouting departments know exactly who he is and it's why he will probably go 10-15 picks higher than the average mock. There are a few others even more slept on in this draft and maybe by some scouts still as well like the Kispert's, Hinton's or Tillie's as mid-late first value instead of late first early second as projected and the deep sleepers like Scrubb, Petty or Queen who are seen as UDFA are definitely worthy of 2 way roster spots picks in the 50's.

In a majority of cases, I really don't claim to know where scouting departments have players like Alexander ranked. I call in favors from time to time but tend to not waste them on sleeper like players.

I don't have a great feel for where he will go (if at all)......I was just pointing out that he has a pretty interesting profile for someone who isn't getting much love......when I say "higher success rate" with someone like Alexander, sometimes that is only +5% or so, based on quantitative data.......but when looking for an edge later in a draft, someone with a profile that maybe has a +5% better chance can be the difference between having a rotational building piece and not.

The thing with scouting especially is to always have an open mind. I tend to lean on data when it comes to bucketing / profiling players.....but then you have to also be willing to go against it based on more qualitative measures. A lot of scouting is an exercise in not knowing who to pick (initially) but who to throw out. Any time you can narrow your choices, your success rate goes up.......so guys like Alexander are players where I personally say "this guy should not be thrown out relative to what other options I see". It is possible he doesn't even make a 20-30 player board a team may build......but as I have started expanding the list of prospects I have logged in 2020, he continues to hover in the top 20.......which to me, means he is possibly overlooked. I still need to log about 35 players (from a rough top 100), so he may be a guy that eventually slides to a preferred UDFA candidate who could stick. We'll see.