2020 NBA Draft

[Nathan S]

I can see Haliburton being the Oladipo of this draft. Nobody wants to take the guy who is just solid, and he ends up as one of the best players.

I was too low on SGA a couple years ago...I think Haliburton basically looks like a better version of him. Similar scoring but more efficient with more 3's. More rebounds, more assists, more steals, more blocks, fewer turnovers, fewer fouls. To top it off, seems like a really mature guy, good teammate, good leadership skills. In this draft, I don't think you can do much better than that.

 

[Cavatt]

I was too low on SGA a couple years ago...I think Haliburton basically looks like a better version of him. Similar scoring but more efficient with more 3's. More rebounds, more assists, more steals, more blocks, fewer turnovers, fewer fouls. To top it off, seems like a really mature guy, good teammate, good leadership skills. In this draft, I don't think you can do much better than that.

You can play him with all 3 of our guards. I think that matters, and he has that IQ where he could maximize their talents as well. If we take a guard instead of Ball at 1 I want Haliburton.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Made an attempt at a big board. Not going to include a lot of commentary, but as always happy to discuss any of these guys in greater detail.


Tier 1a: Once again leaning towards Ball as the clear #1 guy. Really elite combination of physical tools and natural talent.

1. LaMelo Ball

Tier 1b: These guys all have superstar ceilings, IMO, while also being pretty safe bets to be at least solid starters.

2. Tyrese Haliburton
3. James Wiseman
4. Killian Hayes
5. Anthony Edwards

Tier 2a: More of a mix in this tier. All seem likely, IMO, to be valuable roleplayers, but some are more boom/bust than others.

6. Onyeka Okongwu
7. Aleksej Pokusevski
8. RJ Hampton
9. Joel Ayayi
10. Josh Green
11. Xavier Tillman
12. Devin Vassell
13. Tre Jones
14. Malachi Flynn
15. Isaac Okoro

Tier 2b: Generally less exciting ceilings than Tier 2a guys, but not a big gap. Still fairly safe bets to be positive contributors.

16. Paul Reed
17. Deni Avdija
18. Theo Maledon
19. Kira Lewis
20. Nico Mannion
21. Jared Butler
22. Jalen Smith
23. Devon Dotson
24. Reggie Perry
25. Leandro Bolmaro
26. Luka Garza

Tier 3: I think these guys have clear pathways to becoming positive impact players, but the bust possibility is more significant.

27. Jahmi'us Ramsey
28. Desmond Bane
29. Aaron Nesmith
30. Vernon Carey
31. Obi Toppin
32. Tyrell Terry
33. Tres Tinkle
34. Grant Riller
35. Cole Anthony
36. Payton Pritchard
37. Jon Teske
38. Immanuel Quickley
39. Patrick Williams
40. Daniel Oturu
41. Saddiq Bey
42. Zeke Nnaji
43. Ty-Shon Alexander
44. Tyler Bey
45. Isaiah Stewart
46. Filip Petrusev
47. Tyrese Maxey

I'll try to make some time to get through all the guys in the top 100 and produce a board but all my stuff also dislikes Anthony and Maxey as well.......two guys that seem to be getting a lot of mock draft juice.

 

[Nathan S]

I'll try to make some time to get through all the guys in the top 100 and produce a board but all my stuff also dislikes Anthony and Maxey as well.......two guys that seem to be getting a lot of mock draft juice.

I've talked some about why I don't like Toppin, but also want to flag Nesmith, who I've seen rising on a lot of mocks lately. His scoring numbers are amazing, but they have to be taken in context with the schedule he played:

Vanderbilt had the weakest SOS in the SEC largely because of their weak non-conference schedule, which they played almost exclusively at home. Nesmith got to take full advantage of this. Given how he struggled as a scorer in conference play last year, I'm not ready to accept that he's morphed into an elite pure scorer based on a small number of games against a much lower level of competition.

 

[Randolphkeys]

You can play him with all 3 of our guards. I think that matters, and he has that IQ where he could maximize their talents as well. If we take a guard instead of Ball at 1 I want Haliburton.

He is a player I really like overall, but I have no idea if he should be drafted in the top five. It's going to be a lot of pressure for a high efficiency player with a low usage. That was Dante Exum's role in Utah and the fans turned on him pretty quickly. Haliburton would have to gain more confidence initiating offense. Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard made that jump, but being small forwards they had a safer floor defensively if they never made the jump. I do like his game.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I was too low on SGA a couple years ago...I think Haliburton basically looks like a better version of him. Similar scoring but more efficient with more 3's. More rebounds, more assists, more steals, more blocks, fewer turnovers, fewer fouls. To top it off, seems like a really mature guy, good teammate, good leadership skills. In this draft, I don't think you can do much better than that.

You are disregarding a few things here.
SGA drew fouls on much higher rate.
SGA was a better inside finisher and aggressive attacking the rim, which makes him what he is today
SGA was a freshman, and his freshman season was miles a head better than Haliburton's.
SGA played stronger.

Haliburton has things going for him that SGA didn't. Like his 3 point shot and floor game, but honestly, I don't see him as a versatile 3 position defender unless he somehow gains a lot of muscle, and his legs are really skinny which makes me doubtful.

I think it's all speculation at this point when evaluating these prospects, but we can't ignore certain things when comparing prospects.

Nevertheless, I like him, but I just don't have enough footage to go by, so yeah.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I don't see him as a versatile 3 position defender unless he somehow gains a lot of muscle, and his legs are really skinny which makes me doubtful.

Yeah, listed at 170 pounds is a two position guard defender until he fills out. Nice player, but a guy I could see fans getting frustrated with if he caps out at Nate McMillan for his career. Nate McMillan was a very solid player, but I don't know if he would have been a fan favorite if taken with a top 5 pick.

 

[Nathan S]

He is a player I really like overall, but I have no idea if he should be drafted in the top five. It's going to be a lot of pressure for a high efficiency player with a low usage. That was Dante Exum's role in Utah and the fans turned on him pretty quickly. Haliburton would have to gain more confidence initiating offense. Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard made that jump, but being small forwards they had a safer floor defensively if they never made the jump. I do like his game.

I'd argue that, in contrast to guys like Exum, Haliburton is a proven volume passer. Only Ball has better assist:TO numbers in this class, and Haliburton's immediate company (Winston, Jones, Flynn, Pritchard, Mannion) are all among the very best floor generals at the college level.

You are disregarding a few things here.
SGA drew fouls on much higher rate.
SGA was a better inside finisher and aggressive attacking the rim, which makes him what he is today
SGA was a freshman, and his freshman season was miles a head better than Haliburton's.
SGA played stronger.

Haliburton has things going for him that SGA didn't. Like his 3 point shot and floor game, but honestly, I don't see him as a versatile 3 position defender unless he somehow gains a lot of muscle, and his legs are really skinny which makes me doubtful.

I think it's all speculation at this point when evaluating these prospects, but we can't ignore certain things when comparing prospects.

Nevertheless, I like him, but I just don't have enough footage to go by, so yeah.

The point about SGA's ability to score in the paint is fair. Overall their college scoring numbers are comparable, but with Haliburton higher volume from the perimeter and SGA higher volume inside. You could call it a wash overall, but in the modern NBA I feel somewhat more comfortable with the guy who gets a lot of his points from deep. Obviously you'd prefer a point guard who's an efficient volume scorer from all parts of the floor, but that player doesn't exist in this draft.

Don't think the freshman vs sophomore thing is too big a deal, as the age gap between them as prospects is just 4 months.

Yeah, listed at 170 pounds is a two position guard defender until he fills out. Nice player, but a guy I could see fans getting frustrated with if he caps out at Nate McMillan for his career. Nate McMillan was a very solid player, but I don't know if he would have been a fan favorite if taken with a top 5 pick.

He's light, but basically identical to SGA in this regard. Listed 175 pounds at the start of this season, which is the same as what SGA weighed at the Hoop Summit at age 19. Since then, SGA's added a modest 6 pounds to reach his current listed weight of 181 pounds. I held this against SGA during the draft, but his weight never really impeded his development.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I'd argue that, in contrast to guys like Exum, Haliburton is a proven volume passer. Only Ball has better assist:TO numbers in this class, and Haliburton's immediate company (Winston, Jones, Flynn, Pritchard, Mannion) are all among the very best floor generals at the college level.

I wasn't even arguing against his ability to run a team. It's impressive, and as you know I was huge on Delly when he came out of St. Mary's... I see a lot of Delly type qualities in Haliburton. Delly was a higher usage player but also a streaky shooter while Haliburton is far from streaky, he's is as consistent as anybody. My main issue with him is that he plays like Nate McMillan. He is so consumed with setting everyone else up as a combo guard that he could probably help his team by looking for his own shot more often.

I do like the player and I could see him being an SGA level player. You might recall I was very high on SGA in that draft. Is that a player the Cavs are going to spend a top 5 pick on after taking Garland last season?

 

[Nathan S]

I wasn't even arguing against his ability to run a team. It's impressive, and as you know I was huge on Delly when he came out of St. Mary's... I see a lot of Delly type qualities in Haliburton. Delly was a higher usage player but also a streaky shooter while Haliburton is far from streaky, he's is as consistent as anybody. My main issue with him is that he plays like Nate McMillan. He is so consumed with setting everyone else up as a combo guard that he could probably help his team by looking for his own shot more often.

I do like the player and I could see him being an SGA level player. You might recall I was very high on SGA in that draft. Is that a player the Cavs are going to spend a top 5 pick on after taking Garland last season?

Definitely agree that he can be unselfish to a fault, and that it's a concern if you're thinking about his upside. It does make him a very nice fit with Sexton or KPJ though.

I think the glass half full take on last season is that we went in with three young guards who were pretty much total unknowns (Sexton/Garland/KPJ), and when the dust settled, two out of the three look like viable core guys. You can fret about the guy who struggled the most, or you can look at the guys who showed promise and draft to build around them.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Definitely agree that he can be unselfish to a fault, and that it's a concern if you're thinking about his upside. It does make him a very nice fit with Sexton or KPJ though.

I think the glass half full take on last season is that we went in with three young guards who were pretty much total unknowns (Sexton/Garland/KPJ), and when the dust settled, two out of the three look like viable core guys. You can fret about the guy who struggled the most, or you can look at the guys who showed promise and draft to build around them.

Can't agree with you. With Ball, he has the upside to be a 3 with the other two guards on the floor. I don't see it with Haliburton. I like the kid, but it's too early to pull the plug on developing Garland. Drafting Haliburton would have to accompany trading Sexton or perhaps Porter. You can't just keep drafting guards who need development in game action pick after pick. You have to let them develop and select another position at some point so that other positions have prospects to develop on the floor. It would be a disaster.

 

[Nathan S]

Can't agree with you. With Ball, he has the upside to be a 3 with the other two guards on the floor. I don't see it with Haliburton. I like the kid, but it's too early to pull the plug on developing Garland. Drafting Haliburton would have to accompany trading Sexton or perhaps Porter. You can't just keep drafting guards who need development in game action pick after pick. You have to let them develop and select another position at some point so that other positions have prospects to develop on the floor. It would be a disaster.

I'm on board with Ball over Haliburton, of course. But I don't think Haliburton's fit with our current young pieces is bad. In fact, I think his style of play would be very complementary to Sexton or KPJ in the backcourt (or even both of them together, in a small lineup with KPJ at the 3). Focusing on Sexton in particular, Haliburton is a great fit on offense as an efficient pass-first PG, and a great fit on defense as a guy who can credibly guard both backcourt positions. If drafting him stands to enhance the development of our two more promising prospects while hindering the development of our less promising prospect, that seems like a very reasonable tradeoff to me. We need a player who can competently run an offense as badly as we need a wing or a big right now.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I'm on board with Ball over Haliburton, of course. But I don't think Haliburton's fit with our current young pieces is bad. In fact, I think his style of play would be very complementary to Sexton or KPJ in the backcourt (or even both of them together, in a small lineup with KPJ at the 3). Focusing on Sexton in particular, Haliburton is a great fit on offense as an efficient pass-first PG, and a great fit on defense as a guy who can credibly guard both backcourt positions. If drafting him stands to enhance the development of our two more promising prospects while hindering the development of our less promising prospect, that seems like a very reasonable tradeoff to me. We need a player who can competently run an offense as badly as we need a wing or a big right now.

The Cavs definitely overdrafted guards the past two seasons. They painted themselves into this corner. I like the value they received in those draft slots, aside from Garland, but this is the team now. I personally don't see Porter as a swingman, I see him as a shooting guard who can competently slide to cover some small forwards if need be in transition and early defense situations. Starting small forward? No. There's just so many minutes to go around for players who can't guard forwards. Haliburton, Sexton and Garland really shouldn't be defending forwards or the team will bleed points. Haliburton is talented, but not talented enough to outweigh a lot of the talent at positions of need in the top five, IMHO. It is still early in the draft process, so much could change, including trades. I won't close the book because I do like Haliburton the player... I just don't like him enough to completely change the back court group they already started to develop and spend a top 5 pick to do it.

 

[Nathan S]

The Cavs definitely overdrafted guards the past two seasons. They painted themselves into this corner. I like the value they received in those draft slots, aside from Garland, but this is the team now. I personally don't see Porter as a swingman, I see him as a shooting guard who can competently slide to cover some small forwards if need be in transition and early defense situations. Starting small forward? No. There's just so many minutes to go around for players who can't guard forwards. Haliburton, Sexton and Garland really shouldn't be defending forwards or the team will bleed points. Haliburton is talented, but not talented enough to outweigh a lot of the talent at positions of need in the top five, IMHO. It is still early in the draft process, so much could change, including trades. I won't close the book because I do like Haliburton the player... I just don't like him enough to completely change the back court group they already started to develop and spend a top 5 pick to do it.

Agree that it's impossible to develop all of Haliburton/Sexton/Porter/Garland. I'm just saying that, if you're willing to forget about Garland, then your backcourt of the future is Haliburton/Sexton/Porter. That's a way easier trio to juggle on both ends of the court than the current Sexton/Porter/Garland. I think Sexton and Porter would benefit from that change, while they wouldn't necessarily benefit from keeping the backcourt the same and adding a new player at a different position.

Relatedly, even if the Cavs draft a wing or a big, I'd like to see them add a true point guard over the summer. Trying to run an offense without one hurts everyone's development.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Agree that it's impossible to develop all of Haliburton/Sexton/Porter/Garland. I'm just saying that, if you're willing to forget about Garland, then your backcourt of the future is Haliburton/Sexton/Porter. That's a way easier trio to juggle on both ends of the court than the current Sexton/Porter/Garland. I think Sexton and Porter would benefit from that change, while they wouldn't necessarily benefit from keeping the backcourt the same and adding a new player at a different position.

Relatedly, even if the Cavs draft a wing or a big, I'd like to see them add a true point guard over the summer. Trying to run an offense without one hurts everyone's development.

I won't argue your last point. The Sexton and Garland picks gnaw at my Cavaliers fan soul because they were redundant and didn't provide an offensive centerpiece who runs the offense. However, is Haliburton that guy? SGA was a guy I liked in the late lottery, where Sexton was selected. Can we be sure a player like that who had an extra year of development should go top 5?

Let's look at his numbers with the USA U-19 team that features your boy Perry. Credit to an article by The Ringer: He was ninth on the team in scoring (7.9 points per game), but was first in 2-point percentage (85.0), 3-point percentage (55.0), minutes (24.7), assists (6.9), and assist-to-turnover ratio (6.9-to-1); second in steals (2.3); and fourth in blocks (0.7).

Those numbers are objectively outstanding and, as I've said, a lot like what Delly can do for a team when he is at Peak Delly. But if a team is trying to develop 3-4 players already on the roster at guard, can you justify yet another one if he isn't really looking like a Ball type of offensive centerpiece when a forward or center could be sitting there with just as much potential?

Minutes are indeed a numbers game when a team is trying to develop young players. If you don't recognize that, you are one foot deep into what made Sam Hinkie get removed forcibly from his gig in Philly.