2020 Off-Season Rumors/News

[NMCav]

He was a top 30 pitcher in the league each of the past two seasons. So, again I ask, how many "good" pitchers do you think there are? Only 20 or so?

Because if you're arguing he's not a top 20 pitcher, I agree. If you're saying he's not top 40, you're out of your mind.

I don't think he's top 50. He was also the 4th best pitcher on the Mets. The loss likely won't effect them in the long run they planned ahead and got Stroman who's better at the deadline. 2018 looks like an outlier on his injury prone career. He was healthy last season but wasn't that great and was the 4th best Pitcher on his team post deadline. 3rd best before the deadline on a team that was down right terrible.

So good for him he performed at a mediocre level in 19 with zero expectations. He performed top 40 in 18 with even less expectations. I'll ask again. Name the last time a team signed a pitcher known for being injury prone and more for his "Stuff" then production that worked out for the team?

Those contracts don't work out. Even with your argument he's a top 40 pitcher he's going to be a top 15 paid pitcher next season. That represents terrible value. He Will never live up to his contract. He's also going from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Ballpark. Going from an extremely pitcher friendly park to a hitters paradise.

 

[Derek]

I don't think he's top 50. He was also the 4th best pitcher on the Mets. The loss likely won't effect them in the long run they planned ahead and got Stroman who's better at the deadline. 2018 looks like an outlier on his injury prone career. He was healthy last season but wasn't that great and was the 4th best Pitcher on his team post deadline. 3rd best before the deadline on a team that was down right terrible.

So good for him he performed at a mediocre level in 19 with zero expectations. He performed top 40 in 18 with even less expectations. I'll ask again. Name the last time a team signed a pitcher known for being injury prone and more for his "Stuff" then production that worked out for the team?

Those contracts don't work out. Even with your argument he's a top 40 pitcher he's going to be a top 15 paid pitcher next season. That represents terrible value. He Will never live up to his contract. He's also going from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Ballpark. Going from an extremely pitcher friendly park to a hitters paradise.

You're out of your mind. No Mets starter outperformed him last year except for deGrom. He was better than Thor and equal to Stroman (who has produced less than Wheeler as an MLB player).

You're developing strawman arguments. He's not more known for his stuff than production. With the exception of his TJ years, he's been productive (and healthy) at the major league level.

2019: 27th in WAR via ESPN
2018: 21st in WAR via ESPN

Since the start of 2018, 90 starters have 250+ innings. Wheeler is 10th in fWAR and 23rd in ERA. You'll be hard-pressed to find 30 guys you'd rather have in your rotation.

He definitely got overpaid, but he's undoubtedly a very good pitcher.

 

[AZ_]

I don't think he's top 50. He was also the 4th best pitcher on the Mets. The loss likely won't effect them in the long run they planned ahead and got Stroman who's better at the deadline. 2018 looks like an outlier on his injury prone career. He was healthy last season but wasn't that great and was the 4th best Pitcher on his team post deadline. 3rd best before the deadline on a team that was down right terrible.

So good for him he performed at a mediocre level in 19 with zero expectations. He performed top 40 in 18 with even less expectations. I'll ask again. Name the last time a team signed a pitcher known for being injury prone and more for his "Stuff" then production that worked out for the team?

Those contracts don't work out. Even with your argument he's a top 40 pitcher he's going to be a top 15 paid pitcher next season. That represents terrible value. He Will never live up to his contract. He's also going from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Ballpark. Going from an extremely pitcher friendly park to a hitters paradise.

Your entire argument seems predicated on name recognition and little else.

Not a great look.


Support your argument with data, not projection and fallacy arguments.

 

[Urban]

Wheeler was also pretty clearly their 2nd best pitcher after they acquired Stroman.

 

[NMCav]

You're out of your mind. No Mets starter outperformed him last year except for deGrom. He was better than Thor and equal to Stroman (who has produced less than Wheeler as an MLB player).

You're developing strawman arguments. He's not more known for his stuff than production. With the exception of his TJ years, he's been productive (and healthy) at the major league level.

2019: 27th in WAR via ESPN
2018: 21st in WAR via ESPN

Since the start of 2018, 90 starters have 250+ innings. Wheeler is 10th in fWAR and 23rd in ERA. You'll be hard-pressed to find 25 guys you'd rather have in your rotation.

He definitely got overpaid, but he's undoubtedly a very good pitcher.

Stroman has produced less?

Stroman pitching in the AL East in 2017 will be better then any season Wheeler can even dream about.

On actual WS contenders where would he slot in the rotation? Nationals he would have been 4th last season. Dodgers he would have been 4th last season. Astros he would have been 4th last season. Yankees he would have been 3rd. Indians he would be 3rd or 4th and they weren't a WS contender last season. So again he's really not a good player. He's average. He's also had the benefit of playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks. If your going into a must win game no team will have Wheeler as a first choice and most contenders wouldn't even pick him to be the 2nd option.

 

[AZ_]

Stroman has produced less?

Stroman pitching in the AL East in 2017 will be better then any season Wheeler can even dream about.

On actual WS contenders where would he slot in the rotation? Nationals he would have been 4th last season. Dodgers he would have been 4th last season. Astros he would have been 4th last season. Yankees he would have been 3rd. Indians he would be 3rd or 4th and they weren't a WS contender last season. So again he's really not a good player. He's average. He's also had the benefit of playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks. If your going into a must win game no team will have Wheeler as a first choice and most contenders wouldn't even pick him to be the 2nd option.

MadBum gets a pass for not playing on a contender, Wheeler sucks because he wouldn't slot in on a contender.

Cherry picking Stroman's 2017 instead of his actual numbers in 2019 to claim that he's better than Wheeler.

Your entire argument is just predicated in nonsense projection at this point.


Step it up, this is trash.

 

[Derek]

Stroman has produced less?

Stroman pitching in the AL East in 2017 will be better then any season Wheeler can even dream about.

On actual WS contenders where would he slot in the rotation? Nationals he would have been 4th last season. Dodgers he would have been 4th last season. Astros he would have been 4th last season. Yankees he would have been 3rd. Indians he would be 3rd or 4th and they weren't a WS contender last season. So again he's really not a good player. He's average. He's also had the benefit of playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks. If your going into a must win game no team will have Wheeler as a first choice and most contenders wouldn't even pick him to be the 2nd option.

Not that it actually matters where he slots in on contenders (good job moving the goalposts btw), but he would have been the Yankees best starter last year.

Nationals 3rd starter, Corbin: 6 years $140 million
Dodgers 3rd starter, Kershaw: 3 years $93 million
Astros 3rd starter, Greinke: 6 years $206.5 million

On the Indians, he would have been 3rd last year behind Bieber and Clevinger (CY YOUNG CANDIDATES), who are still on arb/pre-arb deals.

You stated before that he's not top 50. I urge you to actually try to come up with a list because I doubt you get to 35 before you start feeling stupid. If you'd like to backtrack on that statement, fine, but then I'd like you to define "good pitcher". Wheeler is a top 30 pitcher in this league, that's good in my book, but if you only think there are 15 good pitchers then I agree he doesn't make the cut.

EDIT: By the way, fWAR, which ranks Wheeler as the 10th most productive pitcher over the last two seasons, is park-adjusted.

 

[NMCav]

Not that it actually matters where he slots in on contenders (good job moving the goalposts btw), but he would have been the Yankees best starter last year.

You stated before that he's not top 50. I urge you to actually try to come up with a list because I doubt you get to 35 before you start feeling stupid. If you'd like to backtrack on that statement, fine, but then I'd like you to define "good pitcher". Wheeler is a top 30 pitcher in this league, that's good in my book, but if you only think there are 15 good pitchers then I agree he doesn't make the cut.

I disagree with him being the Yankees best starter. James Paxton was better. Can point to WAR and other stats and make an argument. But sometimes stats don't take in account for Ballpark, Competition. I don't think Wheeler would have survived the AL East. I know ERA isn't the be all end all of stats but Paxton 3.82 in Yankee Stadium where the balls fly out vs Zack Wheeler and 3.96 ERA at Citi Field. But I wouldn't want either of them starting a big game for my team.

Lets just wait and see. Not worth continuing this. We can revisit this midseason when Wheeler is getting lit up like a Christmas tree. Plenty of Pitchers magically had better health and production before free agency. Maybe he proves me wrong. I do find it interesting that when the Twins, Whitesox came calling he went to a team where he could hide behind Nola like he hid behind DeGrom and Noah in NY.

 

[Derek]

I disagree with him being the Yankees best starter. James Paxton was better. Can point to WAR and other stats and make an argument. But sometimes stats don't take in account for Ballpark, Competition. I don't think Wheeler would have survived the AL East. I know ERA isn't the be all end all of stats but Paxton 3.82 in Yankee Stadium where the balls fly out vs Zack Wheeler and 3.96 ERA at Citi Field. But I wouldn't want either of them starting a big game for my team.

Lets just wait and see. Not worth continuing this. We can revisit this midseason when Wheeler is getting lit up like a Christmas tree. Plenty of Pitchers magically had better health and production before free agency. Maybe he proves me wrong. I do find it interesting that when the Twins, Whitesox came calling he went to a team where he could hide behind Nola like he hid behind DeGrom and Noah in NY.

He doesn't have to prove anything. The argument is about what he's already accomplished, and where he currently ranks. Most of the stats I have referenced are park-adjusted, that throws out the "pitcher's park" argument.

Also, the bolded statement is literally one of the dumbest things I have ever heard.

You provided zero bases for your arguments and dodged every question asked of you.

 

[Urban]

Definitively better, IMO, than Wheeler (no order)
1. Strasburg
2. Cole
3. Morton
4. Snell
5. Severino
6. Sale
7. Clevinger
8. Bieber
9. Clevinger
10. Kluber
11. Verlander
12. Greinke
13. Soroka
14. Scherzer
15. Corbin
16. deGrom
17. Syndergaard
18. Nola
19. Flaherty
20. Hendriks
21. Kershaw
22. Buehler


Better than Wheeler, but close, or concerns (health/inconsistencies/1 year wonders/etc)
23. Carrasco
24. Giolito
25. Lance Lynn
26. Gray
27. Bauer
28. Ryu

Similar levels
29. Paxton
30. Berrios
31. Castillo
32. Fried
33. Stroman
34. Darvish
35. R Ray
36. G Marquez

Probably forgot some

 

[AZ_]

He doesn't have to prove anything. The argument is about what he's already accomplished, and where he currently ranks. Most of the stats I have referenced are park-adjusted, that throws out the "pitcher's park" argument.

Also, the bolded statement is literally one of the dumbest things I have ever heard.

You provided zero bases for your arguments and dodged every question asked of you.

Obvious troll is becoming obvious.

 

[NMCav]

Obvious troll is becoming obvious.

I'm not trolling. Wheeler isn't good and his contract is a joke. Just gotta wait and see. Going to be the worst contract since Cubs gave Darvish all the money. Maybe even on par with Tigers giving Zimmermann all the money. Both of which had a better and longer track record then Wheeler at the signing of the contract.

 

[Derek]

Definitively better, IMO, than Wheeler (no order)
1. Strasburg
2. Cole
3. Morton
4. Snell
5. Severino
6. Sale
7. Clevinger
8. Bieber
9. Clevinger
10. Kluber
11. Verlander
12. Greinke
13. Soroka
14. Scherzer
15. Corbin
16. deGrom
17. Syndergaard
18. Nola
19. Flaherty
20. Hendriks
21. Kershaw
22. Buehler


Better than Wheeler, but close, or concerns (health/inconsistencies/1 year wonders/etc)
23. Carrasco
24. Giolito
25. Lance Lynn
26. Gray
27. Bauer
28. Ryu

Similar levels
29. Paxton
30. Berrios
31. Castillo
32. Fried
33. Stroman
34. Darvish
35. R Ray
36. G Marquez

Probably forgot some

Don’t agree with all of this, but it’s pretty close.

I’d bump a couple guys down out of the definitive group.

EDIT: you put Clev twice

 

[AZ_]

I'm not trolling. Wheeler isn't good and his contract is a joke. Just gotta wait and see. Going to be the worst contract since Cubs gave Darvish all the money. Maybe even on par with Tigers giving Zimmermann all the money. Both of which had a better and longer track record then Wheeler at the signing of the contract.

I don't have to wait and see anything.

Urban/Derek showed a multitude of data points that showed his value as it pertains to the rest of the league, you provided nothing.

I don't care about Zimmerman, or hiding behind Park Factors that you didn't realize were included in his analysis, or whatever fantasy projection you've arbitrarily placed on him if he went to a contender, which you also based on nothing.

Your take was obviously something of a troll (whether you realize it or not), and that won't change if Zack Wheeler's arm falls off tomorrow.


Be better.

 

[NMCav]

I don't have to wait and see anything.

Urban/Derek showed a multitude of data points that showed his value as it pertains to the rest of the league, you provided nothing.

I don't care about Zimmerman, or hiding behind Park Factors that you didn't realize were included in his analysis, or whatever fantasy projection you've arbitrarily placed on him if he went to a contender, which you also based on nothing.

Your take was obviously something of a troll (whether you realize it or not), and that won't change if Zack Wheeler's arm falls off tomorrow.


Be better.

I don't need to be better. Wheeler signed a contract that is terrible value for his team. That's a fact. Even if hes a top 30 or 40 pitcher doesn't mean anything when hes paid like a top 15 pitcher which he isn't. His contract is down right terrible and none of the numbers Derek used proved otherwise. Hes not a pitcher worth 23.6 Million per year.