Stark
The Winds of Winter
- Joined
- Apr 3, 2012
- Messages
- 22,111
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- 135
Idk. His numbers took a drastic spike in Houston. I see this going horribly. Fly ball Pitcher in that stadium. His strikeouts will also likely go down. Went from a career high of 9.0 K per 9 IP with Pittsburgh to 12 and 13 per 9 IP with Houston. That seems like it won't be sustainable. Maybe he really did improve. But I wouldn't have bet 324 Million on Houston Cole being the real Cole.
All I know is that it is immensely rare for one of these long-term contracts (7+ years) to ever work out very favorably for the team that dished it out:
- C.C. Sabathia signs 7-year, $161 million contract with the Yankees in 2008. Only three of those seasons (2008-2010) did he have a bWAR of 4.0+. Was done being an ace caliber talent after the 2012 season. Ended up getting two more years and $18 million after that deal ran up, had a combined FIP of 4.78 in those last two years.
- Albert Pujols signs 10-year, $254 million contract with the Angels in 2012. Only one of those seasons he has had an OPS of over .800, after being over .900 in 11 straight seasons in St. Louis.
- Miguel Cabrera signs 8-year, $248 million contract extension with Detroit in 2014. He had a combined .939 OPS in the first three seasons of that extension, but has fallen off drastically since then .749 OPS. Detroit is still on the hook for a while too.
- Robinson Cano signs 10-year, $240 million contract with Seattle in 2013. Cano hasn't been horrible, but still has only had an OPS of .800+ in half of the seasons so far, has faced a drug suspension, and has already been traded. The Mets (or whatever team) will be paying him $24 million a year the next four seasons, all the way up through his 40th birthday. Doubt he'll be worth it.
Jury is still out on recent mega-contracts like Harper, Machado (under .800 OPS last season), Cole, and Strasburg, but these things historically just do not work.
The only big-time contract in recent memory that has went well is with Max Scherzer and Washington. He signed a 7-year, $210 million deal in 2015 and his worst ERA since signing that deal was 2.96 in 2016 and his worst bWAR was 5.8 in 2019. He's only got 2020 and 2021 left on that deal, and I really don't see him falling off the face of a cliff next season. He's still a top-5 starter in baseball.