2021-2022 Cavaliers General Discussion: Trade Deadline Edition

[CavsKermit]

Last year:
In the last two minutes of a 5 point or less game,
Collin had a 66.7 EFG%, a 74.3 TS%, a 24.7 assist ratio percentage.

The team had a 111.7 offensive rating, 103.0 defensive rating in these minutes. This is a sample size of 18 games (Cavs were 9-9 in them)

Now, take out the 2 Nets games and re-run the numbers.

 

[Cavatt]

Can't pay him starter money if he's going to come off the bench, so you'd have to compare salaries with sixth men rather than starting SG.

We were just paying that amount to Rubio and everyone was ecstatic. Sexton would play similar starter type minutes just off the bench. We have a non-conventional lineup, but people can't wrap their heads around bringing a starter off the bench.

Winning matters, how much your 6th makes doesn't, esp if you have 3 guys in Lauri, Mobley and Okoro who are cost controlled.

People have said, well, he isn't exactly Ginobli. In fact, by % of the cap that will put him right in line with what Ginobli made as a super sub AND Sexton is a better scorer than Ginobli at 27 as a 22 year old.

If you can get what Sexton provides in a guy that is 6'7" inches, go for it. Problem is that guy is a max player. We have a chance to sign a top 20 scorer for likely under 20M which is a boon to our already good team.

Trying to fit this team in a round hole isn't going to help them win. Punishing mismatches and having the best talent and defense will.

 

[Jscc]

We were just paying that amount to Rubio and everyone was ecstatic. Sexton would play similar starter type minutes just off the bench. We have a non-conventional lineup, but people can't wrap their heads around bringing a starter off the bench.

Winning matters, how much your 6th makes doesn't, esp if you have 3 guys in Lauri, Mobley and Okoro who are cost controlled.

People have said, well, he isn't exactly Ginobli. In fact, by % of the cap that will put him right in line with what Ginobli made as a super sub AND Sexton is a better scorer than Ginobli at 27 as a 22 year old.

If you can get what Sexton provides in a guy that is 6'7" inches, go for it. Problem is that guy is a max player. We have a chance to sign a top 20 scorer for likely under 20M which is a boon to our already good team.

Trying to fit this team in a round hole isn't going to help them win. Punishing mismatches and having the best talent and defense will.

A Rubio salary isn't too bad. Rubio's last contract started off about 14 mill per year and I think Sexton would laugh that off.

This situation reminds me of what happened to Ben Gordon in Chicago. He started at SG with Rose. Once Rose emerged, they wanted Gordon to start coming off the bench so they could pair Rose with a defender in Butler that allowed Rose to do his thing offensively. Chicago offered him sixth man money, he declined, and signed with Detroit.

 

[CavsKermit]

We were just paying that amount to Rubio and everyone was ecstatic. Sexton would play similar starter type minutes just off the bench. We have a non-conventional lineup, but people can't wrap their heads around bringing a starter off the bench.

Winning matters, how much your 6th makes doesn't, esp if you have 3 guys in Lauri, Mobley and Okoro who are cost controlled.

People have said, well, he isn't exactly Ginobli. In fact, by % of the cap that will put him right in line with what Ginobli made as a super sub AND Sexton is a better scorer than Ginobli at 27 as a 22 year old.

If you can get what Sexton provides in a guy that is 6'7" inches, go for it. Problem is that guy is a max player. We have a chance to sign a top 20 scorer for likely under 20M which is a boon to our already good team.

Trying to fit this team in a round hole isn't going to help them win. Punishing mismatches and having the best talent and defense will.

Rubio was on the last year of his deal and we got him for Prince and a second. Also, Rubio would start for teams in the NBA.

Look, Sexton isn't getting 19FGA per game with the Cavs anymore. At least not without destroying whatever type of offense we're trying to run. So the entire top 20 scorer thing, isn't a thing. Not really. You can't have it both ways where Sexton is going to change into this entirely different player who plays within the flow of the offense, and gets his teammates involved, and have him still scoring all those points. For Sexton to work on the roster he's going to have to average 10-12 FGA per game off the bench. Even 15 would be pushing it as that would lead to our other bench players getting frozen out of the offense completely.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

If there's a team that evaluates Sexton as a starter who is worthy of a starter's money, than that team would make him such an offer this summer. The very fact that CAA is still talking to the Cavs about an extension strongly suggests there is not.

I get your point, but I think we're not quite there yet. Whether some team will actually be willing to offer Sexton starters' money is not yet known, perhaps even not by that team itself. A lot of things about rosters can chance between now and free agency. A team that for whom Sexton might be a good fit now may not be such a good fit in a few months, and vice-versa.

CAA engaging with the Cavs on a possible extension may simply be due diligence. Find out what the Cavs are willing to pay just for purposes of information gathering so you have an idea what teams would have to offer to beat the Cavs' position. That way, CAA and Sexton enter the offseason with at least one end of the "re-sign or leave" equation better understood.

 

[stick]

Now, take out the 2 Nets games and re-run the numbers.

Why don't you? His overall numbers were boosted by those two games (around 80 percent EFG%, 145 offensive rating, 130 defensive rating), but that's two games out of 18 (11 percent). While it no doubt has a positive effect on the whole, it's not responsible for the other 89 percent, where if Collin was as bad as you claim in the clutch, we would see that reflected.

Collin didn't have good numbers in the clutch in 2019-2020 (neither did the team as a whole, but they still went 13-16 when Collin was a part of those situations, which is a much higher winning percentage than their overall season performance).

Collin did have good numbers in the clutch his rookie year.
113.2 offensive rating
92.6 defensive rating
4.0 assist to turnover ratio
71.4 EFG%
23 games played (8-15 record)

----

Anyways, in my opinion, one of his strong suits is adapting and striking late in games. It may not always look pretty, but I think he has done a solid job of reading the defense and attacking them in these situations. It's a valuable skill to have and I think he can improve there.

 

[CavsKermit]

I get your point, but I think we're not quite there yet. Whether some team will actually be willing to offer Sexton starters' money is not yet known, perhaps even not by that team itself. A lot of things about rosters can chance between now and free agency. A team that for whom Sexton might be a good fit now may not be such a good fit in a few months, and vice-versa.

CAA engaging with the Cavs on a possible extension may simply be due diligence. Find out what the Cavs are willing to pay just for purposes of information gathering so you have an idea what teams would have to offer to beat the Cavs' position. That way, CAA and Sexton enter the offseason with at least one end of the "re-sign or leave" equation better understood.

I find it somewhat implausible that an agency like CAA hasn't already had conversations with the teams who have cap space this summer. *Indirect* conversations of course, in a hypothetical setting, as no one in the NBA tampers.... lol I can't believe I finished typing that.

 

[Cavatt]

Rubio was on the last year of his deal and we got him for Prince and a second. Also, Rubio would start for teams in the NBA.

Look, Sexton isn't getting 19FGA per game with the Cavs anymore. At least not without destroying whatever type of offense we're trying to run. So the entire top 20 scorer thing, isn't a thing. Not really. You can't have it both ways where Sexton is going to change into this entirely different player who plays within the flow of the offense, and gets his teammates involved, and have him still scoring all those points. For Sexton to work on the roster he's going to have to average 10-12 FGA per game off the bench. Even 15 would be pushing it as that would lead to our other bench players getting frozen out of the offense completely.

15 FGA is what he averaged this year as a starter.

What you are saying doesn't wash with the way we saw him playing last year, and it doesn't wash with what he did this year.

Yeah depending on min he won't be scoring like he was as the #1 option, but he will put up good points per possession. His ability to score won't go away because he is getting 4-5 fewer attempts.

I really don't understand trading him for peanuts. This is an opportunity to lock up a good player on a value contract at a young age on a team that needs penetration, drive and kick, transition scoring off defensive play, ball-handling and scoring in general. All things Sexton can provide

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I find it somewhat implausible that an agency like CAA hasn't already had conversations with the teams who have cap space this summer. *Indirect* conversations of course, in a hypothetical setting, as no one in the NBA tampers.... lol I can't believe I finished typing that.

No, I get that. I'm sure they have. The difference is that whatever situation those teams find themselves in right now may not be the situation they find themselves in during the offseason -- particularly after the draft. So while I do think CAA has been gauging general interest from other teams, I think it is almost certainly less detailed/less quantified than the information he can get from the Cavs. At least as of right now.

 

[CavsKermit]

15 FGA is what he averaged this year as a starter.

What you are saying doesn't wash with the way we saw him playing last year, and it doesn't wash with what he did this year.

Yeah depending on min he won't be scoring like he was as the #1 option, but he will put up good points per possession. His ability to score won't go away because he is getting 4-5 fewer attempts.

I really don't understand trading him for peanuts. This is an opportunity to lock up a good player on a value contract at a young age on a team that needs penetration, drive and kick, transition scoring off defensive play, ball-handling and scoring in general. All things Sexton can provide

I think we're debating the value contract part. There's a number at which I'd be happy to bring Sexton back. It's $14M per.

 

[Cavatt]

I think we're debating the value contract part. There's a number at which I'd be happy to bring Sexton back. It's $14M per.

I get it but I think your brain is stuck in 2016 dollars. I think Sexton is better than Lauri and I would gladly pay him a little more.

14 is 12% of the cap. For comparison TT got 18% of the cap in 2016 when the cap 34 M lower.

Supposed to be another big jump when the negotiate TV contracts in 2025. It will be easy to trade in year 2 if not the entire length.

 

[ChicagoCavFan]

Because I have eyes and three year sample size to work from. Sexton likes to use his elite speed to beat the defender to his spots. So much so that 75% of his 19FGAs from last season were inside the 3 point line. When we've played even decent defensive teams in the past, who overloaded the paint, Sexton has struggled. Outside of two games against the Nets when Kyrie was the primary defender, he's struggled in the final minutes of the few games that were actually close when he was the guy. He's a very predictable player and is easily baited into driving into an overloaded paint.

Got it. I stand corrected.

 

[CavsKermit]

I get it but I think your brain is stuck in 2016 dollars. I think Sexton is better than Lauri and I would gladly pay him a little more.

14 is 12% of the cap. For comparison TT got 18% of the cap in 2016 when the cap 34 M lower.

Supposed to be another big jump when the negotiate TV contracts in 2025. It will be easy to trade in year 2 if not the entire length.

Comparing Lauri and Sexton is a bit of an apples and oranges comparison and it's tied pretty closely to what skills you value and how much value you place on those skills. It's subjective. I value spacing more than you. I value players who can still make a positive impact in ways other than scoring because everyone has off nights. All other things being equal, I value height. This isn't to say that Sexton doesn't have value, only that believing Sexton is better than Lauri, and using Lauri is a comp really isn't how the Cavs should evaluate this process.

Sexton has a market value around the league. He's entitled to be paid what the market will command. The Cavs shouldn't bid against themselves unless they're very, very certain they know better than the other 29 teams what that player will be worth. Frankly, the jury's still out in terms of Lauri's value on his contract.

 

[weepinwillow]

Is Colin someone you can give the ball to and tell him to go get a bucket. Hell yea he is - he has proven it over and over.

What are we lacking right now?

Many teams have multiple guys that they trust to get that done. We have one that came on this season (DG)...but that answer in August was only 1 person - Sexton. And now, because he is hurt, he deserves half of what he can get in an open market?



His assists this season would have blown you away if he was playing instead of DG. I thought I read somewhere that he was one of the tops in the league over the last couple seasons on assists that should have occurred had his teammate finished (took into consideration how open the player was, distance to basket). He has finishers this season. Even when we got the Fro last year, he played like ass and look disinterested half the time. This year, he is an All Star. Would that have helped Sexton? Hell yea it would. I can easily say he would be over 7 assists per game this season with our lineup sans DG (he averaged 4.4 last year, DG is averaging 8.2 this season...Sexton would be up there near the top in the NBA).

the problem is, you can't tell him to not go get a basket.

Assists are not the issue, it's the ability to keep the ball moving so the offense stays on time and in rhythm. We only had a small sample size of Sexton playing in that role this year with ok/mixed results. He was still learning how to see the weakside of the offense off his penetration, and that's after 3 full seasons.

You already saw flashes of Garland playing with his head up looking to make plays for his teammates as far back as his rookie year. It all came together this year, but it came together because he was ready to put it together.

My question on Sexton all along is if he is actually ready to put it together. Everything I've seen from him tells me he's best used as a hyper-focused basket getter. I don't see a guy who's going to play well as a real shot creator for his teammates for any length of time. Just doesn't anticipate the defense and how it responds to his action vs where his teammates are well enough.

Why are you pigeon holing Sexton as a 6th man, just because he fits our roster best in that slot?

Sexton pigeon holed himself in that regard. He just hasn't seen the floor well enough to be a facilitator for others, and to that end, because he hasn't seen the floor beyond his angles to score (by and large, I'm obviously generalizing some) he suffered defensively as well.

When he comes back, assuming he comes back, the Cavs will be running an offense through Garland/Allen PnR's and Mobley elbow action with the starters. The 4th and 5th guys in that group are going to get limited touches and mostly be relegated to spot ups, cuts w/o the ball and being asked to swing the ball to the weak side of the offense.

Collin can play in that system, but it won't be the best use of his scoring abilities. Sort of like asking a tuba player to do a solo, he can do it, but do you really want to hear it?

As for the contract: I'd say the Rubio-slot of $17.8m seems legit. Little more, little less. Not sure there are a ton of teams with cap room who can get something done, Pistons I guess? He may see the 15-18m a year deal low, but ultimately it's still life changing money the year after he had to pause his career to rehab an injury.

 

[Cavatt]

Comparing Lauri and Sexton is a bit of an apples and oranges comparison and it's tied pretty closely to what skills you value and how much value you place on those skills. It's subjective. I value spacing more than you. I value players who can still make a positive impact in ways other than scoring because everyone has off nights. All other things being equal, I value height. This isn't to say that Sexton doesn't have value, only that believing Sexton is better than Lauri, and using Lauri is a comp really isn't how the Cavs should evaluate this process.

Sexton has a market value around the league. He's entitled to be paid what the market will command. The Cavs shouldn't bid against themselves unless they're very, very certain they know better than the other 29 teams what that player will be worth. Frankly, the jury's still out in terms of Lauri's value on his contract.

Guys putting up Sexton numbers regularly get max contracts. The only 2 guys scoring better than him in his draft class got super max contracts. Don't overthink it.

Porter Jr got a max and scores less than Sexton per poss.

In my opinion he is upping his frequency of 3s away from becoming unguardable.

I still think he is immature in how he sees the game, but he wants to see the game. His assist rate is in line with other scoring guards.

Look at Beal in his 3rd year vs Sexton and you will see a worse player that has a worse assist rate and who only is better in terms of rebounds.

Sexton isn't done yet. Rumors that he has hit his ceiling are really premature. I do think the team benefited from developing without him for a little while, but they integrating him will make the team stronger.